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Oil Trades Mixed as Possible Global Recession Breathes Down on Market

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Crude Oil Production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices traded mixed on Thursday as concerns remain about a potential global recession that would knock energy demand, with the Brent crude futures growing by 52 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel and the United States West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) falling by 84 cents to $96.42 a barrel.

The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years.

It is also fuelling concerns about a recession – a signal that would affect demand in one of the world’s largest oil-consuming nations.

This could deter the Federal Reserve from continuing to aggressively increase interest rates as it battles high inflation. The US central bank on Wednesday raised its policy rate by another three-quarter of a percentage point, bringing the total rate hikes since March to 225 basis points.

However, analysts note that in terms of demand and supply numbers for oil, the market is below average on supply while demand is holding up better than anticipated.

Investors focused on US oil data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday that showed crude stockpiles fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, beating projections.

The Group of Seven richest economies aims to have a price-capping mechanism on Russian oil exports in place by December 5, a move that will heighten tension between Russia and the West, as the former continues to face pressure following its invasion of Ukraine in February.

Meanwhile, Russia has cut gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, its main gas link to Europe, to just 20 per cent of capacity. That could lead to switching to crude from gas and prop up oil prices in the short term.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September when they meet next week, despite calls for more supply, although a modest output increase is also likely to be discussed.

OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting will be held next week on Tuesday (August 2), with the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday (August 3) and the full OPEC+ Ministerial meeting will follow immediately after the JMMC meeting.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%

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Afriland Properties

By Adedapo Adesanya

Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.

As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.

But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.

The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.

During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.

However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.

Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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Economy

Naira Trades N1,542/$1 as FX Speculators Dump Dollars in Panic

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print Naira massively

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira continued to appreciate on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), gaining 0.7 per cent or N10.23 on Tuesday, December 10 to trade at N1,542.27/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,552.50/$1.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-backed Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform introduced to tackle speculation and improve transparency in Nigeria’s FX market has been attributed as the source of the Naira’s appreciation.

Speculators holding foreign currencies, particularly the US Dollar, have seen the value of their money drastically drop due to the appreciation of the local currency. This is forcing them to dump greenback into the system and take the domestic currency alternative- a move that has seen available FX increase.

Equally, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the trading day by N6.81 to sell for N1,955.12/£1 compared with Monday’s closing price of N1,961.93/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N10.84 to close at N1,613.00/€1, in contrast to the previous day’s rate of N1,623.84/€1.

Data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that the value of forex transactions significantly increased yesterday by $228.85 million or 257.2 per cent to $401.17 million from the preceding session’s $112.32 million.

However, in the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar on Tuesday by N5 to settle at N1,625/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,620/$1.

In the cryptocurrency market, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 4.8 per cent to sell at $0.39116, Litecoin (LTC) depreciated by 3.3 per cent to trade at $110.25, Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 2.3 per cent to $681.44, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 1.6 per cent to finish at $3,671.08, and Cardano (ADA) slid by 0.5 per cent to $0.8837

Conversely, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 5.4 per cent to $2.23 amid a continued shift for the coin with its parent company seeing the benefits of a crypto-friendly regulatory environment for US-based companies.

XRP is closely related to Ripple Labs, a high-profile payments company targeted by the SEC in 2020 on allegations of selling the token as a security to U.S. investors. Ripple fully cleared a long-drawn court case in 2024.

Further, Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.8 per cent to $219.75, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 0.4 per cent to $97,446.95, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Chinese Demand, Europe, Syria Development Buoy Oil Prices

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New Oil Grade

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, influenced by increasing demand in China, the world’s largest buyer, as well as developments in Europe and Syria, with Brent crude futures closing at $72.19 per barrel after chalking up 5 cents or 0.07 per cent while the US West Texas Intermediate finished at $68.59 a barrel after it gained 22 cents or 0.32 per cent.

China will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025 as the world’s largest oil importer tries to spur economic growth. This would be the first easing of its stance in 14 years.

Chinese crude imports also grew annually for the first time in seven months, jumping in November on a year-on-year basis.

Speculation about winter demand in Europe also contributed to the rise in prices as the period has been known for high demand.

In Syria, rebels were working to form a government and restore order after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, with the country’s banks and oil sector set to resume work on Tuesday.

Although Syria itself is not a major oil producer, it is strategically located and has strong ties with Russia and Iran – two of the world’s largest oil producers.

Market analysts noted that the tensions in the Middle East seem contained, which led market participants to price for potentially low risks of a wider regional spillover leading to significant oil supply disruption.

The market is also looking forward to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to make a 25 basis point cut to interest rates at the end of its December 17-18 meeting.

This move could improve oil demand in the world’s biggest economy, though traders are waiting to see if this week’s inflation data derails the cut.

Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 499,000 barrels for the week ending November 29, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a draw of 1.30 million barrels.

For the week prior, the API reported a 1.232-million barrel build in crude inventories.

So far this year, crude oil inventories have fallen by roughly 3.4 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data.

Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

Also, the market is getting relief from the recent decision of selected members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to delay the rollback of 2.2 million barrels per day of oil production cuts to April from January. Another 3.6 million barrels per day in output reductions across the OPEC+ group has been extended to the end of 2026 from the end of 2025.

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