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Only Three States Can Survive Without Federal Allocation—BudgIT

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By Adedapo Adesanya  

Only three of the 36 states of the federation can finance their recurrent expenditure without depending on the monthly allocation from the federal government, a report from Nigeria’s civic tech organization, BudgIT, has said.

This report published under the title State of States 2019, showed that only Lagos, Rivers, and Akwa-Ibom States can finance themselves without the disbursement from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

The report, released in Abuja on Wednesday, confirmed that if the allocation from the federal government were to be affected by any event such as fluctuations in oil prices, many states would be at risk.

The State of States report revealed that the fiscal sustainability of Nigerian states is anchored on three key indices; Index A: states’ ability to meet their recurrent expenditures independently of the Federal Government (weighted average of 0.35 per cent), Index B: the state’s ability to meet their recurrent expenditures with both its internally generated revenue (IGR) and federal allocations (weighted average of 0.50 per cent), and Index C: how long it would take states to pay off their total debt stock (weighted average of 0.15 per cent).

The report also showed that considering the ability of states to meet up with their recurrent expenditure obligation with their IGR, Value Added Tax (VAT), 13 percent share of oil derivation paid to oil-producing states, states like Lagos with index 0.48 sits at the top, followed by Rivers with 0.73 and Akwa Ibom with 0.91 in third.

In its analysis, BudgIT said it was a recurring development to see states in the South-South region running high recurrent bills, mainly driven by the high revenues earned as a result of the 13 percent derivation principle.

The firm said it was also interesting to see states such as Cross River with a high budget of N1.04 trillion spend less than N93 billion on an annual basis.

Speaking on the outcome of the report, the Lead Researcher, BudgiT, Mr Orji Uche, said only 19 states out of 36 could meet their expenditure with internally generated revenue and federal allocation.

“We discovered states, such as Delta, running huge recurrent expenditure reaching N200 billion. Bayelsa, despite its size and population, has a high recurrent bill as high as N137 billion, compared with Ebonyi with a recurrent bill of N30 billion, Sokoto N38 billion, Jigawa N43 billion, Yobe N35 billion etc,” he said.

BudgIT recommended that Nigeria needs to create incentives for states to expand growth and earning potential, thereby activating resources needed to improve the state of health, education, and access to opportunity.

It further recommended states to invest in their unique resources to boost their income by keeping their recurrent costs lean to free up more spending for social and economic infrastructure.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

APM Terminals to Invest $600m in Nigeria’s Maritime Sector

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.

On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.

According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.

President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.

He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.

He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.

Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.

He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.

He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.

He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.

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Economy

Dangote Sues FG Over Fuel Import Licences

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to ‌marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.

The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.

Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.

Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.

The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.

The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.

Dangote ⁠ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.

Nigeria ⁠has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels ⁠per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.

Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.

The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.

Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.69% in April as Middle East Crisis Persists

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.

The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.

According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.

Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.

It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.

The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.

The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.

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