Economy
OPEC Cuts, US-China Trade Deal to Stabilise Oil Prices This Week
By Adedapo Adesanya
Major oil futures finished lower last week after hitting the highest since September earlier in the week due to heightened tensions in the Middle East that threatened to affect supply.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate and the international benchmark Brent crude oil as a result, lost more than $5 as there was no retaliation heavy enough to cause the market to panic.
According to market trends, prices are likely to see heightened volatility and overreactions to the upside if the tensions in the Middle East escalate, but that is highly unlikely especially with US President Donald Trump saying that he has no intentions of attacking, even using his Twitter account to call on the Iranian government to avoid any more abuse on its citizens. The US, on Friday, announced new sanctions against Iranian officials and its construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining sectors
Prices are, however, on the path to holding steady this week on inputs such as the agreement by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to cut production by 1.7 million barrels per day to hold a near-to-stable range. But if in any case there is a disruption in supply in the week and prices go up, the OPEC+ would then flood the market with the oil they have been holding back.
If prices rise, it wouldn’t take long for the US and some other non-OPEC countries to start producing at record levels. This may then lead to a rise in US crude inventories, which will definitely depress prices.
A major deal that would help prices this week is the hope of increased demand due to the US-China trade deal that is set to take place this week, precisely on Wednesday, January 15.
Under the deal, which was announced on December 13, 2019, US plans for new tariffs on $160 billion (£121 billion) of Chinese imports of items such as smartphones and toys would be suspended. In return, China will agree to buy more US farming products and make fresh commitments to improve intellectual property protections.
This is a great opportunity for oil prices to move ahead on a US-China dispute that has weighed heavily on the global economy. Both nations have imposed tariffs on each other’s goods, affecting global trade volumes and leading to weaker levels of business investment.
Over the course of the 18-month trade war, the US has imposed tariffs on about $360 billion worth of Chinese goods including electronics, clothing and toys, while China replied with its own batch of tariffs on more than $110 billion of US products including soya beans and aircraft.
But the signing of the deal will help calm tension between US and China and will stabilize oil prices.
Economy
Brent Nears $80 on Fresh Doubt About US-Iran Ceasefire
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose on Thursday after American Vice President JD Vance warned Israel against further attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, raising doubts about the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Brent crude futures settled at $79.85 a barrel after chalking up 30 cents or 0.38 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 19 cents or 0.25 per cent to finish at $76.60 a barrel.
US Vice President JD Vance on Thursday issued an extraordinary rebuke to Israeli critics of the Iran deal, warning them not to alienate their “only powerful ally” left in the world.
The deal gives negotiators 60 days to reach an agreement on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme and set up a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives.
Mr Vance told members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet to “wake up and smell the reality,” amid growing tensions between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.
Market analysts noted that the statements about Israel may have put things back on edge, as the two countries jointly launched the war on Iran on February 28.
Ultimately, oil markets will be focused on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flowed before the start of the war.
Analysts expect a gradual recovery in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while industry experts have cautioned that prices may not plummet as demand recovers and inventories are refilled.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July, with crude production recovering by October. The bank estimates that a normalisation in exports to pre-war levels might be achieved with a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels to around 70 per cent of pre-war levels.
Markets will be watching closely in the coming week to see exactly how much oil begins to flow, especially Iranian oil, which will no longer be sanctioned thanks to the latest ceasefire agreement.
China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million metric tons of petrol in 2026, down 4.9 per cent from 2025 amid a pivot to new energy and high oil prices.
Economy
FG Releases Transition Guidelines for Tax Acts 2025
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The transition guidelines on the Tax Acts 2025 to provide direction to taxpayers, tax practitioners, revenue authorities and other stakeholders on how to address various issues arising from the old regime to the new framework have been released by the federal government.
The framework was issued on Thursday via a statement signed by the Director of Press Relations in the Federal Ministry of Finance, Efe Ovuakporie.
The guidelines set out the process for transition from the repealed tax laws to the new tax framework effective January 1, 2026.
Under the guidelines, the Tax Acts 2025, comprising the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, apply from the respective commencement dates as enacted in each law. In particular, January 1, 2026, for the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025.
Tax liabilities, assessments, audits, investigations, disputes and enforcement actions relating to periods before that date will be treated under the repealed tax laws, the notice stated.
Tax returns relating to accounting periods ending before January 1, 2026, will be filed under the previous tax laws, while returns relating to accounting periods ending from January 1, 2026, onward will be administered under the new tax framework.
The document also covers the treatment of income taxes, transaction taxes, development levies, tax incentives, exemptions, record-keeping obligations and transactions that span both the old and new tax regimes.
Existing tax incentives and exemptions granted under the repealed laws will remain in place until their expiration dates. New applications and pending requests, however, will be considered under the provisions of the Tax Acts 2025.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, described the Tax Acts 2025 as a significant milestone in Nigeria’s tax reform programme, noting that the Guidelines set out how existing obligations, ongoing matters and future transactions will be treated under the new regime.
According to the Minister, the guidelines are anchored on three key principles – clarity, fairness and administrative certainty, adding that they are intended to promote uniform implementation and support effective administration across the Nigeria Revenue Service, State Internal Revenue Services, the FCT Internal Revenue Service, Local Government Revenue Committees, tax practitioners and taxpayers nationwide.
Economy
Federal, State, LG Councils Share N2.3trn FAAC Allocation
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) has shared a total of N2.300 trillion among the federal government, state governments, and Local Government Councils from the revenue generated in May 2026.
The amount is slightly higher than the N2.257 trillion distributed last month, according to a statement issued by the Head of Information at the Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Efe Ovuakporie.
The FAAC allocation was confirmed at its June 2026 meeting following consideration of revenue receipts for the month of May.
The total distributable revenue of N2.300 trillion comprised N1.611 trillion from statutory revenue and N688.785 billion from Value Added Tax (VAT).
From the distributable amount, the federal government received N818.680 billion, while state governments got N759.141 billion. Local Government Councils were given N534.277 billion, and oil-producing states received N188.132 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
The gross statutory revenue for the month stood at N2.652 trillion, representing an increase of N273.623 billion compared to the N2.378 trillion recorded in April 2026.
FAAC reported significant increases in collections from Companies Income Tax (CIT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Stamp Duties, Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), and oil royalties during the period under review.
However, collections from Import Duty, Value Added Tax (VAT), Excise Duty, and Common External Tariff (CET) levies recorded declines compared to the previous month.
Gross VAT revenue for May 2026 stood at N743.668 billion, lower than the N806.617 billion collected in April 2026.
The committee noted that despite the decline in VAT collections, overall revenue performance for the month was strengthened by improved receipts from petroleum-related taxes and Companies Income Tax.
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