Economy
OPEC Cuts, US-China Trade Deal to Stabilise Oil Prices This Week
By Adedapo Adesanya
Major oil futures finished lower last week after hitting the highest since September earlier in the week due to heightened tensions in the Middle East that threatened to affect supply.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate and the international benchmark Brent crude oil as a result, lost more than $5 as there was no retaliation heavy enough to cause the market to panic.
According to market trends, prices are likely to see heightened volatility and overreactions to the upside if the tensions in the Middle East escalate, but that is highly unlikely especially with US President Donald Trump saying that he has no intentions of attacking, even using his Twitter account to call on the Iranian government to avoid any more abuse on its citizens. The US, on Friday, announced new sanctions against Iranian officials and its construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining sectors
Prices are, however, on the path to holding steady this week on inputs such as the agreement by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to cut production by 1.7 million barrels per day to hold a near-to-stable range. But if in any case there is a disruption in supply in the week and prices go up, the OPEC+ would then flood the market with the oil they have been holding back.
If prices rise, it wouldn’t take long for the US and some other non-OPEC countries to start producing at record levels. This may then lead to a rise in US crude inventories, which will definitely depress prices.
A major deal that would help prices this week is the hope of increased demand due to the US-China trade deal that is set to take place this week, precisely on Wednesday, January 15.
Under the deal, which was announced on December 13, 2019, US plans for new tariffs on $160 billion (£121 billion) of Chinese imports of items such as smartphones and toys would be suspended. In return, China will agree to buy more US farming products and make fresh commitments to improve intellectual property protections.
This is a great opportunity for oil prices to move ahead on a US-China dispute that has weighed heavily on the global economy. Both nations have imposed tariffs on each other’s goods, affecting global trade volumes and leading to weaker levels of business investment.
Over the course of the 18-month trade war, the US has imposed tariffs on about $360 billion worth of Chinese goods including electronics, clothing and toys, while China replied with its own batch of tariffs on more than $110 billion of US products including soya beans and aircraft.
But the signing of the deal will help calm tension between US and China and will stabilize oil prices.
Economy
Unlisted Securities Exchange Retreats After Okitipupa Price Decline
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil palm processing firm, Okitipupa Plc, and two other securities weakened by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.4 per cent on Thursday, June 18.
During the trading day, Okitipupa Plc lost N20.00 to end at N280.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N300.00 per share, NASD Plc declined by 36 Kobo to finish at N37.00 per unit versus N37.36 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc depreciated by 23 Kobo to N86.34 per share from N86.57 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation retreated by N10.39 billion to N2.609 trillion from N2.619 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 17.36 points to 4,361.09 points from 4,378.45 points.
Business Post reports that the sole price gainer for the session was Afriland Properties Plc, which improved by 65 Kobo to N16.20 per unit from N15.55 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by market participants shrank by 71.6 per cent to 792,835 units from Wednesday’s 2.8 million units, the value of securities fell by 61.8 per cent to N49.0 million from N128.3 million, while the number of deals went down by 39.4 per cent to 20 deals from 33 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.7 million units traded for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
Economy
Naira Falls to N1,363/$ at Official Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira free-fall against the US Dollar continued in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 18, losing 0.24 per cent or N3.23 to trade at N1,363.30/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,360.07/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N19.12 to trade at N1,805.69/£1 versus midweek’s N1,824.81/£1, and gained N12.89 on the Euro to sell at N1,565.07/€1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,577.96/€1.
At the GTBank FX counter, the Naira lost N1 against the Dollar to trade at N1,373/$1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,372/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
Tightness in FX liquidity continued to pressure the local currency, contributing to a decline in the official exchange rate due to rising demand for foreign payments.
Analysts also attribute the market liquidity dynamics to the lack of substantial Open Market Operation (OMO) bill positioning by foreign portfolio investors, who are key sources of hard currency inflows for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The apex bank’s daily FX report revealed that interbank FX turnover increased to $69.918 million across 85 interbank transactions, up from $54.293 million the previous day.
As for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $63,000 after losing 1.7 per cent to close at $62,742.28 on Thursday, as risk assets sold off worldwide, erasing the gains it made earlier in the week on the back of the US-Iran peace deal.
The pressure came from a wider retreat in markets as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal under the signed US-Iran deal and eased what had been a historic supply shock.
Attention now turns to talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, with Vice President JD Vance saying a 60-day clock to settle the deal’s details has started.
During the session, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.3 per cent to $68.68, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 2.7 per cent to $1.13, Cardano (ADA) slid 2.4 per cent to $0.1606, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped 2.0 per cent to $576.11, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.9 per cent to $0.0826, and Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.7 per cent to $1,696.74.
However, TRON (TRX) improved by 0.1 per cent to $0.3204, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Cadbury Nigeria, Others Shrink Equity Market by 1.41%
By Dipo Olowookere
The refusal of the bears to give the bulls a chance further depleted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 1.41 per cent on Thursday.
Persistent selling pressure left the equity market depressed at the close of business yesterday, with profit-taking still witnessed in the financial services sector.
The All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 3,397.80 points to 237,404.92 points from 240,802.72 points, and the market capitalisation shrank by N2.179 trillion to N152.266 trillion from N154.445 trillion.
Africa Prudential dropped 10.00 per cent to trade at N11.70, Cadbury Nigeria lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N62.10, Tripple Gee crashed by 10.00 per cent to N3.60, John Holt depreciated by 9.93 per cent to N12.25, and McNichols stumbled by 9.33 per cent to N6.80.
On the other side, Legend Internet grew by 9.52 per cent to N5.75, NPF Microfinance Bank gained 9.18 per cent to settle at N5.35, Transcorp advanced by 7.32 per cent to N44.00, Neimeth improved by 7.03 per cent to N9.90, and DAAR Communications added 5.29 per cent to trade at N1.79.
Analysis of the price movement log indicated that the mood remained bearish, as Customs Street ended with 15 price gainers and 39 price losers, representing a negative market breadth index.
The activity level went up yesterday after investors bought and sold 691.6 million stocks worth N116.9 billion in 50,025 deals, in contrast to the 663.0 million stocks valued at N40.0 billion transacted in 51,143 deals on Wednesday. This showed that the trading volume increased by 4.31 per cent, the trading value surged by 192.25 per cent, and the number of deals decreased by 2.19 per cent.
First Holdco was the busiest equity during the trading day, with a turnover of 115.8 million units valued at N7.1 billion. Access Holdings traded 109.7 million units for N2.5 billion, Dangote Cement exchanged 71.5 million units for N83.4 billion, Japaul transacted 26.0 million units worth N83.6 million, and FCMB sold 25.9 million units valued at N285.9 million.
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