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OPEC+ Deal Barely Supports Oil Prices on Monday

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opec oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices recorded marginal gains on Monday after a largest deal on record by oil cartel, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies cut production by 10 percent globally.

Even the cut was not enough to move investors who realize that 10 million barrels per day doesn’t go far enough in the grand scheme of things.

On Monday, the global benchmark, the Brent Crude gained 58 cents or 1.84 percent to trade at $31.97 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate gained 23 cents or 0.57 percent to close at $22.76 per barrel.

After four days of discussions, OPEC, along with other nations including Russia, announced on Sunday that an  agreement to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day had been reached.

The move was designed to help falling prices of oil by limiting supply, since prices for crude have plummeted due to coronavirus and an oil price war, which happened when a previous agreement to cut production was not renewed.

Oil prices around the world have plunged to their lowest levels in almost two decades as oil-producing nations produced as much as they could, flooding the market with more oil than needed.

And as demand plunged more than 30 percent in over a month, this called for the agreement. Although, the major party that caused the oil price war, Saudi Arabia and Russia will shoulder about half of the cut, the market’s demand worry is holding prices from rising steadily.

A 10 percent drop of the world’s daily output is only about half of the excess currently in the market, which is why the rally in prices wasn’t huge.

President Donald Trump, who was influential in the deal, cheered the agreement saying in a tweet that it’s a great deal for all.

“Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported. If anything near this happens, and the World gets back to business from the Covid 19…..

“….disaster, the Energy Industry will be strong again, far faster than currently anticipated. Thank you to all of those who worked with me on getting this very big business back on track, in particular Russia and Saudi Arabia,” the American President wrote.

However, top US bank Goldman Sachs does not hold the opinion that the deal will support oil prices in the coming weeks.

According to the bank, the oil deal would translate into just 4.3 million barrels per day of actual production reduction from Q1 2020 levels, and that is assuming all major OPEC members comply fully and all other producers comply at 50 percent with the agreement.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria Led Africa’s Upstream Oil, Gas Investments in 2024

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OPEC Global Oil Demand

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria ranked as Africa’s leading destination for upstream oil and gas investment in 2024, new research from market intelligence firm, Wood Mackenzie, has shown, accounting for three out of four Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) announced by global oil and gas majors, totaling $13.5 billion.

The FIDs announced within the Nigerian market included Shell’s $122 million investment in the Iseni Gas Project, TotalEnergies’ $566 million commitment to the Ubeta Gas Project and Shell’s approval of the Bonga North Tranche 1 project valued at around $5 billion.

According to the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, Ms Olu Verheijen, these investments reflected Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to unlock its hydrocarbon potential through investor-friendly policies and strategic global partnerships.

Last year, Nigeria introduced several initiatives to create a conducive environment for oil and gas investors, including new tax incentives aimed at attracting up to $10 billion in natural gas investments.

Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest oil producer, also offered tax relief for gas investors, reducing corporate income tax and extending capital allowance benefits – for deepwater gas projects.

Other policies include the Presidential Directive on Local Content Compliance Requirements 2024 to address the reduction in oil and gas investments caused by high operating costs compared to global markets.

Also, the Presidential Directive on Reduction of Petroleum Sector Contracting Costs and Timelines 2024 reduces the time spent to award contracts for oil and gas projects.

In addition to the directives, Nigeria also launched its 2024 oil and gas licensing round, offering 19 blocks for exploration, demonstrating its commitment to continued collaboration with local, regional and international partners.

Market analysts note that with this momentum, further FIDs are anticipated, including TotalEnergies’ expected $750 million commitment to the Ima Shallow Gas Project in 2025.

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Economy

UBN Property Triggers 0.22% Loss at NASD OTC Exchange

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.22 per cent decline on Monday, January 20, with the market capitalisation shedding N2.35 billion to close at N1.073 trillion compared with the preceding session’s N1.075 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) going down by 6.79 points to wrap the session at 3,105.12 points compared with 3,111.91 points recorded in the previous session.

It was observed that the loss recorded on the first trading day of the week was triggered by UBN Property Plc, which crashed by 20 Kobo to trade at N2.00 per share versus last Friday’s N2.20 per share.

However, the share price of Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc went up by 4 Kobo to 40 Kobo per unit from 36 Kobo per unit, it could not stop the bourse from going down at the close of transactions.

The activity chart showed that on Monday, the volume of securities traded by investors increased by 57.9 per cent to 767,610 units from the 486,215 units traded in the preceding session, while the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 17.7 per cent to N2.3 million from the N2.8 million recorded in the preceding trading day, as the number of deals declined by 14.3 per cent to 12 deals from the 14 deals carried out in the previous trading day.

At the close of transactions, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 4.1 million units worth N162.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with a turnover of 9.1 million units valued at N44.0 million, and 11 Plc with the sale of 55,358 for N14.5 million.

Also, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 25.3 million units sold for N5.9 million, Geo-Fluids Plc came next with 9.1 million units valued at N44.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.1 million units worth N162.9 million.

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Naira Weakens to N1,550/$1 at Official Market, Gains N5 at Black Market

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Naira 4 Dollar

By Adedapo Adesanya

The value of the Naira weakened against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, January 20 amid FX pressures associated with this period.

Most people who came into the country for Christmas and New Year holidays are already going back and are in need of forex, putting pressure on the local currency.

Also, the poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to end to the 42-day access granted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators to buy forex at official price.

According to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, the Nigerian Naira lost 0.16 per cent or N2.47 on the greeback yesterday to sell at N1,550.05/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s rate of N1,547.58/$1.

Similarly, the Naira slumped against the Pound Sterling in the spot market on Monday by N23.39 to trade at N1,906.98/£1 versus N1,883.59/£1 and depreciated against the Euro by N23.14 to sell for N1,613.48/€1 compared with last Friday’s N1,590.34/€1.

However, in the parallel market, the Nigerian currency improved its value against the Dollar during the session by N5 to quote at N1,665/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,670/$1.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it turned red yesterday as the US President, Mr Donald Trump, didn’t bring up the much-expected subject of crypto in his inauguration speech on Monday afternoon.

Mr Trump had promised a far more friendly crypto policy stance than the previous administration but in the long speech that announced his plans in the coming days, he didn’t make mention of Bitcoin or crypto.

Just over the weekend, the President ignited a speculative frenzy with the Friday evening launch of the Trump meme coin, which was shortly followed by a meme coin associated with his wife, Melania.

Dogecoin (DOGE) crumbled yesterday by 6.3 per cent to $0.3419, Solana (SOL) slumped by 4.7 per cent to $235.32, Cardano (ADA) fell by 3.6 per cent to $0.9777, and Litecoin (LTC) moderated by 1.9 per cent to $114.98.

Further, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.7 per cent to $3,241.36, Binance Coin (BNB) retreated by 1.4  per cent to $693.30, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.2 per cent to $3.06, and Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 0.8 per cent to $101,746.99, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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