OPEC+ Hold Oil Output Steady in November Amid Middle East Tensions

By Adedapo Adesanya

Key members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to keep oil production steady in November, as security risks in the Middle East remain elevated despite signs that regional crude exports are back around prewar levels.

The core members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and ⁠Oman – reached the decision on Sunday as markets remain on alert for further escalation and attacks on shipping.

The seven members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up ​630,000 barrels per day from July, yet still roughly 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels ​in February.

The group will hold their next meeting on November 1.

OPEC+ still has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place covering most members. It needs the result of the capacity review to decide how ⁠to distribute ​increases, and any changes to output are unlikely before 2027.

A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which does not decide policy, also met on Sunday ​to review the market.

OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much ​of 2026 after years of ​production cuts, but most ⁠of the increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict.

Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below output targets in the face of continuing export ​disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating at 60 per cent to 80 per cent of normal levels in recent ​months.

Major Middle East producers have managed to ramp up crude supplies, with analysts estimating that regional exports have returned to prewar levels. Physical markets, however, continue to signal severe tightness.