OPEC+ Retains Nigeria’s Output Benchmark at 1.5mbpd

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s daily oil production quota will remain unchanged at 1.5 million barrels per day after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Thursday deferred the commencement of its proposed oil production cuts by a year, until the end of 2026.

The move was necessitated by weak demand and rising output by non-members of the international oil cartel.

OPEC sets a production target for its members as a way of curbing oversupply and ensuring price stability.

The alliance agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025 respectively, according to statements issued by the group on Thursday.

However, Nigeria which has been a laggard struggled for years to meet its monthly allocation of 1.78 million barrels per day minus condensates as prescribed by the group.

The country quota was revised then downwards to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2022.

Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.

However, eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter, and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.

Nigeria, unable to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day, does not belong to this exclusive group. OPEC data puts Africa’s largest oil producer numbers at 1.3 million barrels on average.

Saudi Arabia’s quota will stand at 10.47 million barrels per day; Russia’s at 9.94 million barrels per day; Iraq’s at 4.43 million barrels per day production and Algeria’s at 1 million barrels per day output.

Despite these sets of production trims and ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under pressure from a tepid demand outlook.

Brent crude, which Nigeria leverages its headline crude against, is currently trading at $72 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Nigeria has set an ambitious 2025 production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates, as outlined in the draft 2025 appropriation bill of N48.7 trillion. The bill also sets a $77 per barrel benchmark to fund the budget.