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Panic as Brent Further Trades Below Nigeria’s $60 Benchmark

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of the Brent crude oil at the international market extended its decline on Wednesday, trading below Nigeria’s $60 per barrel budget benchmark.

Brent, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, further dipped by $2 to settle at $57.38 per barrel as at 9 p.m on Wednesday. It has continued to plunge. The crude traded around $61 per barrel last Thursday from $65 on Wednesday.

The 2019 budget, which was signed by President Muhammadu Buhari in May, was based on oil production of 2.3 million barrel per day (including condensates) with an oil benchmark price of $60 per barrel.

Brent crude hit a record high of $86.74 per barrel in October 2018, a development that spurred the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to peg the price of crude oil for the 2019 budget at $60 per barrel, up from $50.5 for the 2018 budget.

However, Brent plummeted in November, trading below the $60 per barrel mark, with some experts saying that the government would need to review the oil price benchmark downwards.

Brent crude plunged by more than seven percent to its lowest level in about seven weeks after the United States’ Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of interest rate cuts and as rising US output helped keep the market well supplied.

Brent has plunged more than 12 percent since last week as global equity markets went into a tailspin after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10 percent tariff on a further $300 billion in Chinese imports from September 1, 2019.

Yesterday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by 2.5 percent to settle at $52 a barrel.

Oil fell early on worries about the trade war, then extended losses after U.S. government data showed a build of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. stockpiles instead of the 2.8 million draw analysts had expected. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.

Mr Trump on Tuesday dismissed fears that the trade row with China could be drawn out further. Still, U.S. stock indexes tumbled more.

Demand for safe-haven assets such as government debt underscored lingering anxiety over recession risks.

Tensions in the Middle East remained high after Iran seized a number of tankers in recent weeks in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for oil shipments.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,362/$1 at Official Market

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Naira 4 Dollar

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further depreciated against the United States Dollar by N3.46 or 0.25 per cent to N1,362.21/$1 from N1,358.75/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 5.

However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N4.47 to trade at N1,823.59/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,828.06/£1, and gained N7.00 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.58/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,581.58/€1.

For another trading session, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar in the parallel market and the GTBank forex counter on Friday at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.

The Naira is expected to remain strong in the near term, backed by a rise in external reserves, which are nearing $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about its outlook in the second half of 2026.

Heightened global uncertainty has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.

As for the cryptocurrency market, prices remained depressed following a strong US jobs report that spurred markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates, sending Treasury yields and the dollar up while hammering stocks, especially AI-related names. Crypto markets saw heavy leverage washouts with about $1.6 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours.

Ethereum (ETH) gave up 4.9 per cent to trade at $1,584.68, Solana (SOL) fell by 3.3 per cent to $63.22, Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 1.9 per cent to $61,333.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.8 per cent to $0.0821, and Ripple (XRP) moderated by 1.8 per cent to $1.09.

Further, TRON (TRX) dropped 1.6 per cent to sell at $0.3197, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.0 per cent to $581.18, and  Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.4 per cent to $0.1589, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) gained 0.07 to sell at $0.9997, and US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $0.9998.

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Economy

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Fears of US-Iran Conflict Ease

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crude oil prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil ​prices fell on Friday as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the United States and Iran ‌was growing less likely.

The price of Brent crude futures settled at $93.09 a barrel, down $1.94 or 2.04 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $90.54 a barrel, down $2.50 or 2.69 per cent.

President Donald Trump said the US will win the conflict with Iran either “militarily or on paper,” referring to the fitful negotiations with the Iranian government, and he suggested he could meet with Iran’s reclusive supreme leader “if it was to make a deal.”

He also said he had no desire to meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since the outbreak of violence on February 28 and was reportedly seriously injured in US-Israeli air strikes. He, however, added that if the two sides reached a deal, it was possible the two leaders would meet.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected on Thursday a US-brokered agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government to halt the fighting. Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a ​condition for any peace deal ​with America.

Oman said ⁠operations at Mina al Fahal port were unaffected after it was reported that oil loading had been ​suspended following an explosion near its mooring berths. Oman exports 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of crude from the ​terminal.

As the US-Iran war peace talks dragged on, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil passes, remained limited. Gains have been capped by oil inventories lasting longer than expected, rerouted exports and falling demand.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC) is ⁠sticking to its oil demand growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day for this year, its Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said, despite the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC crude output fell last month, hitting its lowest level in decades as the US blockade of Iran and disruption in the Persian Gulf continued to curb production.

Output from its 11 current members dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million a day in May, with Iran accounting for more than half of the decline, according to a Bloomberg survey. That was the lowest in at least 37 years. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates, which left the organisation last month after six decades.

Key members of the OPEC+ are expected to nudge up targets by a modest 188,000 barrels again in July during a video conference on Sunday. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its allies are due to hold that day.

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Economy

OPEC Crude Output Falls to 37-Year Low Amid Iran Disruptions

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.

According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.

Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.

War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.

Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.

Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.

The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.

This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.

Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.

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