Economy
Possible Interest Rate Pause After Nigeria’s Inflation Falls Again in August
By Adedapo Adesanya
In another positive news, Nigeria’s inflation further eased to 32.15 per cent in August 2024, relative to the 33.40 per cent that was quoted in July 2024 and this offers a window of opportunity for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to halt interest rates hike when it meets next week.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, the August 2024 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.25 per cent points when compared to the July 2024 headline inflation rate.
However, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.35 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 at 25.80 per cent.
This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in August 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (August 2023).
Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.22 per cent, which was 0.06 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2024 (2.28 per cent).
This means that in August 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in July 2024.
This development may offer ease for businesses who have been lamenting the effect of the 26.25 per cent interest rate increment on their operations.
Some analysts have countered that the CBN might keep tightening in order to bring the rate further down, as it is still high comparatively.
The Food inflation rate in August 2024 was 37.52 per cent on a year-on-year basis, which was 8.18 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (29.34 per cent).
The rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items, Bread, Maize Grains, Guinea Corn, etc (Bread and Cereals Class), Yam, Irish Potatoes, Water Yam, Cassava Tuber, etc (Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers Class), Palm Oil, Vegetable, etc (Oil & Fats Class) and Ovaltine, Milo, Lipton, etc (Coffee, Tea & Cocoa Class).
On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.37% which shows a 0.10 per cent decrease compared to the rate recorded in July 2024 (2.47%). The fall can be attributed to the decline in the rate of increase in the average prices of Tobacco, Tea, Cocoa, Coffee, Groundnut Oil, Milk, Yam, Irish Potatoes, Water Yam, Cassava Tuber, Palm Oil, and Vegetable.
The August 2024 Urban inflation rate was 34.58 per cent on a year-on-year basis, this was 6.89 per cent points
higher compared to the 27.69 per cent recorded in August 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 2.39 per cent in August 2024, this was 0.07 per cent points lower compared to July 2024 (2.46 per cent).
On the flip side, The rural inflation rate in August 2024 was 29.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis; this was 5.85 per cent higher compared to the 24.10 per cent recorded in August 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in August 2024 was 2.06 per cent, down by 0.04 per cent points compared to July 2024 (2.10 per cent).
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three bellwether stocks lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.62 per cent on Friday, December 12 with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumping by 22.20 points to 3,600.43 points from 3,578.23 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N13.28 billion to close at N2.154 trillion from the previous day’s N2.140 trillion.
During the session, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N2.53 to close at N39.71 per share compared with the previous day’s N37.18 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc added 35 Kobo to its price to finish at N5.00 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N4.65 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 23 Kobo appreciation to sell at N60.23 per share versus N60.00 per share.
It was observed that yesterday, the price of Golden Capital Plc went down by N1.05 to N9.45 per unit from N10.50 per unit, and UBN Propertiy Plc declined by 21 Kobo to N2.01 per share from the N2.22 per share it was traded a day earlier.
There was a significant improvement in the level of activity for the day, as the volume of transactions increased by 6.2 per cent to 37.4 million units from the previous day’s 35.2 million units, the value of trades went up by 265.1 per cent to N4.9 billion from N1.4 billion, and the number of deals soared by 13.80 per cent to 33 deals from 29 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the last trading day of this week as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, the second spot was taken by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units traded for N9.5 billion, and third space was occupied by a new comer in MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.3 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 537.0 million units sold for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bullish run on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited continued on Friday with a further 1.00 per cent growth buoyed by gains recorded by Guinness Nigeria, Champion Breweries, and others.
Data showed that the consumer goods space expanded by 1.53 per cent during the last trading session of the week, as the insurance counter grew by 0.51 per cent, and the industrial goods sector marginally gained 0.01 per cent.
However, the banking index depreciated by 0.54 per cent due to a pocket of profit-taking, and the energy industry shrank by 0.09 per cent, while the commodity sector closed flat.
Guinness Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N217.80, Morison Industries rose by 9.84 per cent to N4.69, Champion Breweries jumped by 9.69 per cent to N14.15, Austin Laz grew by 9.66 per cent to N2.27, and C&I Leasing appreciated by 9.62 per cent to N5.70.
Conversely, eTranzact lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N12.60, Chellarams slumped by 9.00 per cent to N13.20, Eunisell depleted by 9.89 per cent to N75.15, Africa Prudential moderated by 9.77 per cent to N12.00, and DAAR Communications decreased by 9.18 per cent to 89 Kobo.
The busiest stock on Friday was Access Holdings with 107.6 million units sold for N2.2 billion, Consolidated Hallmark traded 59.9 million units worth N245.8 million, Zenith Bank transacted 48.2 million units valued at N3.1 billion, Transcorp Power transacted 42.8 million units for N13.1 billion, and Champion Breweries exchanged 36.4 million units valued at N510.2 million.
At the close of business, a total of 602.8 million units worth N30.7 billion exchanged hands in 20,550 deals yesterday, in contrast to the 529.7 million units valued at N12.3 billion traded in 18,159 deals on Thursday, representing a surge in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 13.80 per cent, 149.59 per cent, and 13.17 per cent apiece.
Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) soared during the session by 1,485.89 points to 149,436.48 points from 147,950.59 points and the market capitalisation moved up by N945 billion to N95.264 trillion from N94.319 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
An intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange (FX) market eased the pressure on the Naira on Friday.
The apex bank sold forex to banks and other authorised dealers in the official window to defend the domestic currency, helping to calm the FX demand pressure, with the Nigerian currency appreciating against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by 0.11 per cent or N1.57 to sell at N1,454.50/$1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,456.07/$1.
Also, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N3.95 to close at N1,946.15/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,950.11/£1 but lost 10 Kobo on the Euro to quote at N1,706.46/€1 compared with the N1,706.36/€1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
At the black market segment, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar during the session at N1,470/$1 and also traded flat at N1,463/$1 at the GTBank forex counter.
Despite the sigh of relief, demand pressures outweighed the robust supply from the CBN and inflow from offshore players looking to participate at the OMO bills auction.
Gross FX reserves increased for the twenty fifth consecutive week, growing by a strong $396.84 million week-on-week to $45.44 billion.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was down on Friday as pressure remained after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday, which hinted at a possible rate cut pause in January. As a result, markets now expect only two rate cuts in 2026 instead of three.
However, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who was against a December rate cut, said he expects more in 2026 than the current median projection.
Ethereum (ETH) slumped by 5.1 per cent to $3,090.61, Solana (SOL) declined by 4.5 per cent to $132.79, Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 3.8 per cent to $0.4103, and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 2.5 per cent to trade at $0.1373.
In addition, Bitcoin (BTC) lost 2.4 per cent to sell at $90,342.74, Litecoin (LTC) tumbled by 1.9 per cent to $81.86, Binance Coin (BNB) fell by 0.6 per cent to $886.93, and Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.5 per cent to $2.02, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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