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Potential Russian Crude Embargo Lifts Oil Prices

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Russian crude

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices were positive on Monday night as indications remain that there is a potential European Union (EU) ban on Russian crude even as major markets were closed for public holidays.

Brent crude futures were up 7 cents or 0.1 per cent to $107.21 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 4 cents to $104.73 a barrel.

The EU is reportedly leaning toward a ban on imports of Russian oil by the end of the year after talks between the European Commission and EU member states this weekend.

It has prepared the sixth package of sanctions against Russia in response to the invasion just over two months ago of Ukraine that Moscow calls a special military operation.

The package is expected to target Russian oil, Russian and Belarusian banks, as well as more individuals and companies.

The Commission, which is coordinating the EU response, held talks dubbed “confessionals” with small groups of EU countries and will aim to firm up its sanctions plan in time for a meeting of EU ambassadors in its headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, as Western countries have refrained from buying Russian oil due to sanctions on those exports, the impact on global supply has been somewhat cushioned as India has been picking up heavily-discounted Russian cargoes.

On the demand side, US factory activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in April, according to a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday.

However, the ISM’s index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 55.4 last month, which is still considered to be a mark of expansion.

There was also weak data from China which showed that factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy contracted for a second straight month to its lowest level since February 2020 because of COVID lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing.

On the supply side, Libya’s National Oil Corp (NOC) said it would temporarily resume operations at the Zueitina oil terminal after it declared force majeure in late April on some shipments as political protesters forced a number of oil facilities to suspend operations.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NASD OTC Bourse Declines Further by 0.16%

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NASD OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.16 per cent decline on Tuesday, January 21, extending its loss this week to two.

This further depleted the market capitalisation of the alternative stock exchange by N1.65 billion at the close of transactions to N1.071 trillion from the N1.073 trillion it closed in the preceding session.

In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 4.79 points to wrap the session at 3,100.33 points compared with 3,105.12 points recorded in the previous session.

The bourse ended with two price losers yesterday led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gave up 32 Kobo to trade at N4.38 per share versus Monday’s closing price of N4.70 per share and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which depreciated by 15 Kobo to close at N39.50 per unit compared with the previous day’s N39.65 per unit.

On the second trading day of the week, the number of deal carried out slightly went up by 8.3 per cent to 13 deals from the 12 deals executed at the previous trading session.

Also, the value of transactions increased by 97.2 per cent to N4.5 million from the N2.5 million recorded a day earlier, while the volume of securities traded in the session declined by 71.6 per cent to 183,780 units from the 767,610 units recorded on Monday.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most traded equity  by value (year-to-date) with 4.1 million units worth N162.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units valued at N44.0 million, and 11 Plc with 55,358 sold for N14.5 million.

Also, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 25.3 million units worth N5.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units sold for N44.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.1 million units valued at N162.9 million.

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Naira Crashes to N1,552/$1 at NAFEM, N1,670/$1 at Black Market

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Naira value1

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pressure further mounted on the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange market on Tuesday, making its value to shrink against the United States Dollar at the close of business.

In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the domestic currency crashed against its American counterpart during the session by 0.18 per cent or N2.73 to settle at N1,552.78/$1, in contrast to Monday’s closing price of N1,550.05/1.

But against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, the local currency traded flat in the official market yesterday at N1,906.98/£1 and N1,613.48/€1, respectively.

As for the black market segment, the Naira weakened against the Dollar on Tuesday by N5 to sell for N1,670/$1 compared with the preceding day’s value of N1,665/$1.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market heaved a sigh of relief during the session as President Donald Trump created a crypto task force dedicated to “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”

The task force will be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, a long-time advocate for the crypto industry, and will work closely with the crypto industry to develop regulations. This is after Mr Gary Gensler, an opponent of crypto, officially stepped down as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Mr Trump’s term started.

The task force will also work with Congress, providing “technical assistance” as it crafts crypto regulations.

Solana (SOL) recorded a 9.2 per cent growth to sell at $257.09, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 7.6 per cent to $0.36789, Ripple (XRP) added 4.0 per cent to finish at $3.18, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 3.7 per cent to $105,515.03.

Further, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 2.8 per cent to close at $699.01, Cardano jumped by 2.1 per cent to trade at $0.9972, Ethereum (ETH) soared by 2.0 per cent to settle at $3,308.21, and Litecoin (LTC) went up by 1.5 per cent to end at $116.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.

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Brent Falls Below $80 as US Signals Boost to Oil Output

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of the Brent crude oil grade went below the $80 mark on Tuesday after it shed 86 cents or 1.1 per cent to trade at $79.29 per barrel after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, signaled the possibility of his country boosting its oil production.

This move raised concerns of higher US output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year, with the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling by $1.99 or 2.6 per cent during the session to $75.89 per barrel.

On his first day in office, the US President signed an executive order to unleash America’s energy by easing the barriers to oil and gas extraction and production and revoking a series of climate orders by former President Joe Biden.

As pledged in the campaign, the executive order follows the declaration of a national energy emergency.

The declaration includes measures to expedite energy infrastructure delivery, and emergency approvals by agencies “to facilitate the identification, leasing, siting, production, transportation, refining, and generation of domestic energy resources, including, but not limited to, on Federal lands.”

This will likely confirm expectations that the oil market will be oversupplied this year after weak economic activity and energy transition efforts weighed heavily on demand in top-consuming nations the US and China.

President Trump also said he was considering imposing 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from February 1, rather than on his first day in office as promised.

The delay helped ease concerns of an immediate tightening of the market among US refiners, many of which are geared to process the type of crude oil supplied by these countries.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reiterated on Tuesday its expectations for oil prices to decline both this year and next.

On its part, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects robust demand growth in the world both this year and next.

In 2025, OPEC says demand is set to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day leaving its projection unchanged from the December report.

However, losses were also limited after the US president said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.

Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea.

Yemen’s Houthis said on Monday they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.

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