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Private Capital Slowdown in Africa Mirrors Global Investment Trends

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Private Capital

The African Private Capital Association – today announced the release of the 2023 African Private Capital Activity Report, the anticipated annual report providing insight into dealmaking, fundraising, exits and the key trends shaping Africa’s private capital landscape.

In 2023, the global economy faced a series of interconnected shocks, including rising political tensions, increasing fragmentation in global trade, escalating interest rates and tightening monetary policies to address high inflation. Amidst volatile market conditions, dealmaking in Africa was not shielded from the global slowdown in private capital, leading to reduced investment activity on the continent. However, Africa experienced more robust performance than other regions, such as North and Latin America, which noted comparatively larger declines in deal activity.

Private capital activity resets after post-pandemic highs 

In the new report, AVCA found that Africa’s total private capital deal volume declined for the first time since 2016, falling by 28% year-over-year (YoY) to 450 deals. Despite a reduction in the number of transactions, Africa showed resilience, returning to the steady growth trajectory the region drove until 2022 when investors deployed large reserves of capital that were not allocated during the Covid-19 pandemic. Compared with activity throughout the last decade, 2023 was the second-strongest year on record for deal volume in Africa. Notably, deal volume on the continent surpassed the annual average of 264 deals from 2012 to 2022 and the average of 387 deals from 2019 to 2022.

Venture Capital and Infrastructure drive investor appetite

Continuing established trends, investors favoured venture capital (VC) as the route to back promising African businesses with innovative, tech-enabled solutions in rapidly developing markets. VC maintained its four-year streak as Africa’s leading asset class, accounting for 68% of the total investment volume of private capital activity across the continent in 2023.

The report notes that infrastructure had an impressive year for capital raising and deployment as the only asset class to benefit from increased funding in 2023, with deal values surging to US$1.8bn – a remarkable threefold YoY increase. Investments in renewable energy largely fueled this trend, indicating a growing interest in leveraging Africa’s abundant solar, hydro, biomass, and wind potential to accelerate the clean energy transition.

Shifting trends and familiar patterns 

In a departure from previous years, Southern Africa reclaimed its dominance as one of Africa’s top investment destinations. The sub-region attracted 119 capital investments at US$2.6bn, the highest volume (together with West Africa) and the value of deals across the continent. South Africa accounted for the majority of investments in Southern Africa, with 81% of deals in the sub-region, due to growth across the IT and industrial sector and a rise in VC investments in software and services, logistics and transportation.

In line with AVCA’s previous research, the Financials, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors remained the most attractive sectors, accounting for 54% of the total volume of private capital deals in 2023. This trend replicates investor activity noted in previous years as digital financial services and e-commerce expand to meet growing consumer demand, presenting more opportunities for investors.

Final close funds show a modest decline and interim fundraising surges

Notwithstanding final closed funds declining by 9% YoY, investors continued a trend of increasingly high values of capital raised for private debt and VC funds. Interim fundraising also surged across the continent, with Africa-focused fund managers achieving 40 interim closes. The uptick in private debt interim fundraising underscored growing interest in private debt as an asset class, stepping in to fill the gap left by commercial banks as investors seek protection from rising interest rates.

Exit market resets to pre-2022 averages 

Despite a 48% YoY decline in volume, Africa recorded 43 exits in 2023, which marks a return to pre-2022 averages of 42 per year. All sub-regions in Africa experienced a YoY decline. Economic challenges were exacerbated in 2023, ending the exit rush in Africa of 2022 led by fund managers dealing with a backlog of mature portfolio companies from the Covid-19 pandemic. Southern Africa, demonstrating its position as a mature exit market, was the most popular sub-region for exits, increasing its overall share of exits to 36% YoY.

Abi Mustapha-Maduakor, Chief Executive Officer, AVCA, said: “Despite global economic headwinds, we are pleased to see Africa-focused investors’ ongoing commitment to the continent, particularly in venture capital – the continent’s leading asset class. Whilst there were dips in investment activity across many asset classes, infrastructure proved to be resilient, as the only asset class to receive increased funding during the year. Based on this report, our expectation for the coming year is that investors will remain committed to investment opportunities that leverage disruptive tech on the continent.”

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Economy

Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant

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Dangote Fertilizer bag

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.

The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.

The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.

The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.

The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.

Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.

The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.

“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.

“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.

The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.

“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.

“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”

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Economy

Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance

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swear in taiwo oyedele

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.

He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.

President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.

On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.

He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.

Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.

“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.

“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.

He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.

“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.

The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.

This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.

The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.

Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.

His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.

The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.

He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.

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Economy

Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on

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Africa nations War in Iran CNN

CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.

The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.

This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”

Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.

The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”

Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.

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