Economy
PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc: Better-Than-Expected Recovery

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc (PZ) released Q3-16/17 result last month, showing further improvement in profitability (from the loss reported in the first quarter) with 117 percent y/y and 46 percent q/q PAT growth respectively.
The PAT (N1.89 billion) beat our estimate (N764.4 million) by a wide margin, primarily on higher-than-expected revenue (20% variance). The relatively lower COS and opex margins also accounted for the variance between the reported PAT and our estimate.
By revising Q4-16/17 estimate higher, and accounting for the positive surprise in the third quarter, we have increased 2017 PAT to N3.36 billion (previously N1.19 billion).
PZ has implemented aggressive price hikes which, in addition to restoring margin to parity with historical levels, have positioned revenue to grow at the highest since 2009.
But as highlighted in the update on the company’s second quarter result, it is unlikely that PZ will replicate 2017 performance next year. Noting the modest outlook for inflation (especially considering the improvement in the FX environment), we expect producers will temper price hikes from the second half of this year and shift focus towards innovative sales and efficiency drive.
For PZ, stable prices, amid slow volume recovery, especially in the currently challenged Personal Care and Electrical divisions, signal slower revenue growth from the record level achievable in
2017F. We retain our 3.5 percent top-line growth estimate for 2018F.
PZ’s linkage to FX volatility via imports remains substantial, and save for major improvement in NGN/USD exchange rate or the moderation of raw material input prices, there are no visible internal measures that would lower production costs in the short term.
The management has guided to the ongoing backward integration programme to substitute imported CPO with local sourcing as a potential margin enabler, the benefit of which it expects in the medium to long term. In the immediate however, management’s guidance is for a sustainable 22% gross margin. Given our prognosis on costs and pricing, we do not expect gross margin to expand further from the 30 percent average achieved in the last two quarters, and consequently retained our 25 percent average forecast over the short term.
For reference, gross margin dropped to 28 percent in Q3, from 33 percent in Q2, suggesting that PZ may have faced additional cost pressure during the period, given that prices were broadly unchanged.
On 15.2x 2017 FPE, PZ is trading at a discount to Bloomberg’s SSA and Nigerian peer average (although the sample is very shallow), but at premium to the average of Nigerian Foods Products sector.
We roll forward valuation to 2018, revise TP to N14.29 (previously N10.41), and upgrade recommendation to HOLD
Economy
World Bank Upwardly Reviews Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.4%
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria has been projected to record an economic growth rate of 4.4 per cent in 2026 by the World Bank Group, higher than the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the global lender also said the growth for next year for Nigeria is 4.4 per cent rather than the 3.8 per cent earlier projected.
As for the sub-Saharan African region, the economy is forecast to move up to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.
It stressed that growth in developing economies should slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before rising to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
In the report, it also noted that growth is expected to jump in low-income countries by 5.6 per cent due to stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
As for the world economy, the bank said it is now 2.6 per cent and not 2.4 per cent due to growing resilience despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” a part of the report stated.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” it noted.
World Bank also said, “Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
Economy
Seven Equities Buoy NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.73%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seven price gainers triggered a 0.73 per cent appreciation in the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Tuesday, January 13.
The advancers were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which added N5.06 to its value to close at N75.00 per unit versus the preceding day’s N68.70 per unit, followed by MRS Oil Plc, with a price appreciation of N5.06 to sell at N200.00 per share compared with the previous session’s N194.94 per share, and Air Liquide expanded by N1.00 to settle at N14.00 per unit versus N13.00 per unit.
Further, Food Concepts Plc climbed by 31 Kobo to N3.37 per share from N3.06 per share, IPWA Plc appreciated by 11 Kobo to N1.23 per unit from N1.12 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc grew by 6 Kobo to N6.90 per share from N6.84 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc grew by 1 Kobo to end at N1.29 per unit versus Monday’s closing price of N1.28 per unit.
The gains recorded by these seven securities raised the market capitalisation by N15.95 billion to N2.2 trillion from the preceding session’s N2.184 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) added 26.65 points to close at 3,678.13 points compared to 3,651.48 points.
Business Post reports that three stocks she weight yesterday, with Afriland Properties Plc down by N1.49 to N14.73 per share from N16.22 per share. Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 64 Kobo to N40.13 per unit from N40.77 per unit, and UBN Property Plc lost 1 Kobo to close at N2.05 per share versus N2.06 per share.
Yesterday, the number of deals executed soared by 39.6 per cent to 67 deals from 48 deals, the total value of transaction surged by 84.1 per cent to N86.1 million from N46.8 million, while the volume of trades shrank by 59.6 million to 1.6 million units from 4.03 million units.
CSCS Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 2.0 million units sold for N81.4 million, trailed by MRS Oil Plc with 265,697 units worth N53.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 6.4 million units traded for N43.4 million.
By volume, Geo-Fluids Plc topped the chart with 6.4 million units valued at N43.4 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 3.1 million units transacted for N1.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 2.0 million units valued at N81.4 million.
Economy
Naira Now N1,419/$1 at Official Forex Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira further appreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, January 13 by N1.80 or 0.13 per cent to N1,419.66/$1 from Monday’s N1,421.46/$1.
This was boosted by an inject of $50 million into the official forex market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in an effort to defend the local currency.
At the same spot market, the Nigerian currency improved its rate against the Pound Sterling during the session by N1.86 to close at N1,913.98/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,915.84/£1 and gained N5.09 on the Euro to settle at N1,656.59/€1, in contrast to the N1,661.68/€1 it was transacted a day earlier.
At the parallel market and the GTBank FX counter, the Naira maintained stability against the DOllar yesterday at N1,490/$1 and N1,431/$1, respectively.
Market analysts have noted that proper CBN support, stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), improving current account dynamics, and more disciplined FX management will give the Naira stronger footing in the near term, with threats coming from externalities.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was elevated on Tuesday as US inflation eased and political uncertainty around the Federal Reserve increased demand for non-sovereign assets.
Ease in US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates this year. Lower inflation eased pressure on bond yields and improved liquidity conditions, a setup that has historically favored crypto and other risk assets.
Also, reports that the US Justice Department had served grand jury subpoenas on the Federal Reserve earlier this week unsettled markets and weakened the Dollar, boosting the appeal of assets viewed as insulated from central bank risk.
Cardano (ADA) surged by 7.5 per cent to $0.4206, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 6.2 per cent to $3,321.77, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 5.8 per cent to $0.1472, Ripple (XRP) rose by 3.9 per cent to $2.14, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 3.1 per cent to $936.96, Litecoin (LTC) jumped by 3.1 per cent to $78.58, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 2.9 per cent to $94,662.42, and Solana (SOL) soared by 1.6 per cent to $144.03, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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