Economy
Any Rate Cut by MPC Will Lead to Negative Real Yield—FSDH
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Analysts at FSDH Research have warned that any attempt by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rate at its meeting next week will lead to a negative real yield, with a possible significant capital flight from Nigeria by foreign investors.
FSDH, in its latest report obtained by Business Post, said it expects the committee to still hold the rate at 14 percent.
Members of the MPC will meet next week and observers are keenly awaiting outcome of the meeting.
FSDH noted that the value of the Naira recorded a mixed performance but show relative stability since the last MPC meeting in July 2017.
The value of the Naira depreciated at the official market, while it closed unchanged at the parallel market.
The inter-bank market rate depreciated marginally by 0.07 percent to N305.95/$ on September 15, 2017 from N305.75/ $ on July 25, 2017.
The parallel market closed unchanged at N367/ $ on September 15, 2017 same as at July 25, 2017.
It said the premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N61 after the last MPC meeting in July 2017 and September 15, 2017 from an average of N66 during the period between the MPC Meeting of May and July 2017 meeting.
“A rate cut will lead to a negative real yield, with a possible significant capital flight from Nigeria by foreign investors. Thus, a hold decision is appropriate,” the report said.
FSDH also noted that the yields on NTBs decreased in August 2017, compared with July 2017. At the NTBs auction, average yield on the 91-day was down at 13.82 percent in the month of August compared with 13.93 percent recorded in July 2017.
The average 182-Day NTB stood at 19.02 percent in August 2017, down from 19.11 percent in July 2017. The average 364-Day NTB yield also closed lower at 22.73 percent in August 2017, from 22.80 percent in July 2017.
“The yields on the FGN Bonds that we monitored closed higher in August 2017 over the preceding month. The average yield on the 16 percent FGN June 2019 increased to 16.84 percent in August from 16.62 percent in July.
The 16.39 percent FGN Jan 2022 closed at 16.33 percent in August 2017, marginally higher than 16.13 percent in July 2017; the 10 percent FGN Jan 2030 also closed at 16.43 percent in August 2017, higher than 16.12 percent in July 2017.
“We expect the yields on the fixed income securities to trend downward going forward. This is because of FX stability, plans of the FGN to refinance part of the local debt into foreign debt and the positive GDP growth rate expected going forward,” it said.
The report also said the monetary aggregates (narrow money and broad money) as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the CBN sets for the year 2017.
The broad money supply (M2) decreased by 5.08 percent to N22.20trn in July 2017 from N23.39trn in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth rate target of 10.29 percent for the year 2017.
The net domestic credit increased marginally by 1.92 percent to N27.16trn in July 2017 from N26.65trn in December 2016.
The annualised growth rate in the net domestic credit in July 2017 was 3.29 percent, below the target growth rate of 17.93 percent for 2017.
The net domestic credit to the Federal Government increased by 6.88 percent to N4.99trn in July 2017 from N4.67trn in December 2016. The net domestic credit to private sector also increased marginally by 0.87 percent to N22.17trn in July 2017 from N21.98trn in December 2016.
The CBN has maintained tight monetary policy to curb high inflation rate and ensure FX stability.
“Looking at the developments both in the domestic and international markets, a hold in rates at this meeting will be appropriate in order to sustain the current growth rate in the economy. However, the MPC may adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to signify easing.
“Meanwhile, fiscal measures in the forms of tax relief and tariff adjustment are required to boost economic activities,” the report said.
Economy
Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.
In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.
Recall that on August 5, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act ( NIIRA 2025).
This landmark legislation repeals the Insurance Act 2003, and consolidates related provisions, ushering in a modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.
The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.
According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.
NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.
“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.
The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.
The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.
This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.
Economy
Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.
This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.
Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.
He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.
Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.
On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.
Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.
“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”
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