Economy
Recession Exit: Why 0.55% GDP Growth is Nothing to Rejoice About—Expert
Mixed reactions have stated trailing the official report of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that Nigeria has exited recession.
According to earlier report by the NBS, Nigeria’s GDP growth for Q2 of 2017 grew by 0.55 percent, halting five quarters of negative growth.
According to experts, the growth of 0.55 percent only does not compensate for the lost ground, it is also below expectations considering the low base the growth is starting from.
Reacting to the report, experts at SBM Intelligence said the least negative growth in any quarter was -0.67 percent in Q1 of 2016.
“Subsequent contractions were higher, peaking at -2.34 percent in Q3 of 2016. The single quarter growth that now has the country out of recession is 0.55 percent and is less than the lowest period of contraction, from a much higher base.”
The second and more crucial issue comes from a closer look at the issues that led to the recession.
“A contraction in government revenue due to persistent over dependence on the single revenue source that is oil was significant.
“This cascaded into currency controls that saw foreign capital leave, the ability of producers to import raw materials, and that of traders to import produce, severely hampered.”
They said a stubborn refusal to allow the naira float causing multiple exchange rates was the result, with arbitrage opportunities increasing to almost 100 percent at some point within the period.
Unfortunately, the Nigerian government has not taken advantage of the crisis to make tough decisions that will forestall such a recession in the short and long term. The moment oil prices take a big enough hit again, Nigeria will be headed back to a recession.
“Coming out a recession is not the same as the economy making a recovery. Nigeria is very far from recovering from the loss of the last eighteen months. It will be more beneficial if the government and its agents shelve the unnecessary celebration and backslapping.”
The recovery plans documented in the ERGP have been unfavourably reviewed by all informed observers of the Nigerian economy. We have wasted a crisis. We will do well not waste the aftermath of the crisis. It is time to get to serious work.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.
Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.
The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.
For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.
There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The domestic stock market crashed by 0.37 per cent on Thursday as a result of the decline in the price of shares of McNichols, Eterna, Aradel Holdings, and others.
Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended the session with 25 price gainers and 31 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
McNichols lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N7.74, ABC Transport slipped by 9.88 per cent to N6.20, Eterna shrank by 9.85 per cent to N29.75, Aradel Holdings depreciated by 9.51 per cent to N1,749.90, and NPF Microfinance Bank contracted by 8.45 per cent to N5.20.
On the flip side, International Energy Insurance gained 10.00 per cent to close at N6.60, Omatek improved by 9.73 per cent to N2.03, Abbey Mortgage Bank surged by 9.68 per cent to N8.50, Cutix expanded by 9.66 per cent to N3.18, and John Holt grew by 7.79 per cent to N14.90.
As for the sectorial performance, the industrial goods and banking indices chalked up 0.54 per cent and 0.31 per cent, respectively. But the energy sector depleted by 4.90 per cent, the insurance counter tumbled by 0.58 per cent, and the consumer goods index slumped by 0.03 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) dipped by 905.30 points to 242,227.31 points from 243,132.61 points, and the market capitalisation stumbled by N581 billion to N155.359 trillion from N155.940 trillion.
During the session, investors traded 588.5 million equities valued at N27.9 billion in 57,352 deals compared with the 923.0 million equities worth N42.3 billion transacted in 69,332 deals on Wednesday, showing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 36.24 per cent, 34.04 per cent, and 17.28 per cent, respectively.
The most active equity yesterday was Access Holdings with 109.7 million units sold for N2.6 billion, FCMB traded 35.6 million units valued at N384.2 million, NGX Group transacted 28.1 million units worth N3.9 billion, Zenith Bank exchanged 26.9 million units for N3.3 billion, and Sterling Holdings recorded a turnover of 22.5 million units worth N176.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.1 per cent or N1,49 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, June 4, closing at N1,358.75/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,347.26/$1.
In the same vein, the Naira depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market during the session by N5.39 to trade at N1,828.06/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,822.67/£1, but gained N6.75 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.83/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,584.39/€1.
At the black market and GTBank FX desk, the local currency traded flat against the Dollar during the session at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that NFEM interbank FX turnover contracted to $128.117 million in 121 deals on Thursday from $133.731 million the previous day.
On the positive side, Nigeria’s external reserves moved closer to a 2009 high of $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about the local currency outlook in the second half of 2026.
This improvement has been helped by heightened global uncertainty, which has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices extended steep weekly losses as the broader artificial-intelligence trade that has driven global risk assets since 2026 faltered.
The sell-off was led by equity and currency markets, with semiconductor stocks, Asian indexes and several regional currencies sliding in a broad risk-off shift.
Persistent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a rare BTC sale by Strategy have removed a key source of support, leaving markets focused on Friday’s US jobs report for clues on Federal Reserve policy and the fate of the AI trade. The most valued coin slipped 3.6 per cent to $61,914.58.
Cardano (ADA) plunged by 17.6 per cent to $0.1630, Solana (SOL) declined by 7.0 per cent to $65.69, Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 6.9 per cent to $1,666.13, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 6.5 per cent to $0.8445, and Ripple (XRP) crashed by 6.5 per cent to $1.11.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 4.3 per cent to $581.45, and TRON (TRX) dropped 1.9 per cent to sell at $0.3261, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) gained 0.01 per cent each to sell at $0.9990 and $0.9998, respectively.
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