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Economy

After Recession: A Need for Policy Change?

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FSDH Merchant Bank

By FSDH Research

We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels, while the fiscal authority continues to implement policy measures to sustain growth. The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 25 and 26, 2017.

The current tight monetary policy is justified in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

At its July 2017 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points; Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.

In the international scene, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook, July 2017 edition, forecasts global economic growth at 3.5% in 2017. The IMF indicated that the risks around the global growth forecast are from monetary policy normalisation in some advanced economies, notably the U.S, anti-globalisation stance, and geopolitical tensions.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) maintained the Federal Funds Rate (The Fed Fund Rate) at its September 2017 meeting but signalled unwinding of balance sheet as from October 2017.

At the domestic level, the Q2, 2017 figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the GDP in Nigeria recorded a growth rate of 0.55%. The recovery in crude oil production and price and the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window), increased the supply of foreign exchange, and helped to pull the economy out of recession.

Meanwhile, the accretion to the external reserves continued after the MPC meeting in July 2017. The 30-Day moving average external reserves increased by 3.21% to $31.83bn as at 31st August

2017, from $30.84bn as at 31st July 2017.

However, the value of the Naira recorded a mixed performance but has shown relative stability since the last MPC meeting in July 2017. The value of the Naira depreciated in the official market, while it closed unchanged in the parallel market. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N61 between the last MPC meeting in July 2017 and September 15, 2017 from an average of N66 during the period between the MPC Meetings of May and July 2017.

The monetary aggregates as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the CBN sets for the year 2017. The broad money supply (M2) decreased by 5.08% to N22.20trn in July 2017, from N23.39trn in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth rate target of 10.29% for the year 2017.

The CBN has maintained tight monetary policy to curb high inflation rate and ensure FX stability.

Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.55%-16.20% between September 2017 and December 2017.

This is based on the assumption that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) does not increase the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Electricity Tariff. The forecast range is higher than the CBN’s target of 6%-9% and the growth retarding inflation benchmark of 12.5%.

The yields on NTBs decreased in August 2017, compared with the yields in July 2017. At the NTBs auction, average yield on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTB dropped. The yields on the FGN Bonds that we monitored closed higher in August 2017 when compared with the yields in the preceding month. We expect the yields on the fixed income securities to drop.

This is because of the stability in the FX market, plans of the FGN to refinance part of the local debt with foreign debt and the positive GDP growth rate expected going forward.

Looking at the developments both in the domestic and international markets, a hold in rates at this meeting will be appropriate in order to sustain the current growth rate in the economy. However, the MPC may adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to signify easing.

Meanwhile, fiscal measures in the forms of tax relief and tariff adjustments are required to boost economic activities.

 

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs

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PEBEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.

The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.

The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.

The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.

“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.

“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.

“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”

She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.

The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.

All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.

The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.

Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.

PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.

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Economy

DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch

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FGN Savings Bond

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.

The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.

Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.

The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.

The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.

The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.

Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.

An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.

It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.

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Economy

Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Talks

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices climbed on Monday’s short trade as the United States and Iran threatened more attacks, ​as the two countries are engaging in indirect talks that could lead to the de-escalation of hostilities.

Brent crude futures settled at $109.77 ‌a barrel after chalking up 74 cents or 0.68 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $112.40 after growing by 87 cents or 0.78 per cent.

The US and Iran received a framework from ​Pakistan to end hostilities, but this was rejected by Iran, especially the idea of immediately reopening the strait after President Donald Trump threatened to ⁠rain “hell” on the nation if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran said ​it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

The US is eyeing an agreement to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the shipping artery used by one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, but the strait, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi ​Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the U.S.-Israel attacks began on February 28.

Some vessels, however, including ​an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the strait since Thursday.

Meanwhile, major oil consumers, ​particularly in Asia, are conserving barrels or cutting consumption in response to the closure of the strait.

The Middle East supply disruptions have led refiners to seek alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.

On Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest rise ​of 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, this will only appear on paper as the disruption is limiting the ability of the top producers to add the needed output.

OPEC’s combined oil output losses for March were estimated at 7.2 million barrels daily. The biggest production cuts were made by Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, for a total OPEC output of 21.57 million barrels daily for March. This is the lowest OPEC production rate since June 2020.

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