Economy
After Recession: A Need for Policy Change?
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels, while the fiscal authority continues to implement policy measures to sustain growth. The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 25 and 26, 2017.
The current tight monetary policy is justified in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
At its July 2017 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points; Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.
In the international scene, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook, July 2017 edition, forecasts global economic growth at 3.5% in 2017. The IMF indicated that the risks around the global growth forecast are from monetary policy normalisation in some advanced economies, notably the U.S, anti-globalisation stance, and geopolitical tensions.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) maintained the Federal Funds Rate (The Fed Fund Rate) at its September 2017 meeting but signalled unwinding of balance sheet as from October 2017.
At the domestic level, the Q2, 2017 figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the GDP in Nigeria recorded a growth rate of 0.55%. The recovery in crude oil production and price and the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window), increased the supply of foreign exchange, and helped to pull the economy out of recession.
Meanwhile, the accretion to the external reserves continued after the MPC meeting in July 2017. The 30-Day moving average external reserves increased by 3.21% to $31.83bn as at 31st August
2017, from $30.84bn as at 31st July 2017.
However, the value of the Naira recorded a mixed performance but has shown relative stability since the last MPC meeting in July 2017. The value of the Naira depreciated in the official market, while it closed unchanged in the parallel market. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N61 between the last MPC meeting in July 2017 and September 15, 2017 from an average of N66 during the period between the MPC Meetings of May and July 2017.
The monetary aggregates as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the CBN sets for the year 2017. The broad money supply (M2) decreased by 5.08% to N22.20trn in July 2017, from N23.39trn in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth rate target of 10.29% for the year 2017.
The CBN has maintained tight monetary policy to curb high inflation rate and ensure FX stability.
Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.55%-16.20% between September 2017 and December 2017.
This is based on the assumption that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) does not increase the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Electricity Tariff. The forecast range is higher than the CBN’s target of 6%-9% and the growth retarding inflation benchmark of 12.5%.
The yields on NTBs decreased in August 2017, compared with the yields in July 2017. At the NTBs auction, average yield on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTB dropped. The yields on the FGN Bonds that we monitored closed higher in August 2017 when compared with the yields in the preceding month. We expect the yields on the fixed income securities to drop.
This is because of the stability in the FX market, plans of the FGN to refinance part of the local debt with foreign debt and the positive GDP growth rate expected going forward.
Looking at the developments both in the domestic and international markets, a hold in rates at this meeting will be appropriate in order to sustain the current growth rate in the economy. However, the MPC may adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to signify easing.
Meanwhile, fiscal measures in the forms of tax relief and tariff adjustments are required to boost economic activities.
Economy
NGX All-Share Index Cross 165,000 points as Market Cap Now N106trn
By Dipo Olowookere
The bulls have refused to leave the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as they further lifted the market by 1.59 per cent on Tuesday on the back of continued bargain-hunting.
The bourse recorded a significant rise yesterday as a result of the gains posted by some large-cap equities, including MTN Nigeria and others.
The sterling performance was across the key sectors of Customs Street, except the insurance counter, which went down by 0.06 per cent due to mild profit-taking.
However, the banking segment appreciated by 1.33 per cent, the consumer goods index soared by 0.74 per cent, the energy index grew by 0.39 per cent, the industrial goods space gained 0.10 per cent, and the commodity landscape improved by 0.01 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) moved up by 2,592.63 points to 165,837.32 points from 163,244.69 points and the market capitalisation increased by N1.661 trillion to N106.182 trillion from N104.521 trillion.
Caverton, PZ Cussons, Deap Capital, eTranzact, and MTN Nigeria all gained 10.00 per cent during the session to settle at N7.70, N58.30, N3.63, N18.15, and N605.00, respectively.
However, Universal Insurance lost 6.25 per cent to close at N1.20, Prestige Assurance declined by 5.81 per cent to N1.62, Regency Alliance slumped by 5.17 per cent to N1.10, Academy Press depreciated by 5.06 per cent to N7.50, and Royal Exchange dropped 3.98 per cent to sell for N1.93.
A total of 55 stocks ended on the advancers’ log and 13 stocks finished on the laggards’ end, indicating a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
The activity level was mixed, with the trading value up by 75.00 per cent to N33.6 billion from N19.2 billion.
But the trading volume was slightly down by 8.33 per cent to 1.1 billion shares from the 1.2 billion shares recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals decreased by 17.09 per cent to 49,216 deals from 59,359 deals.
For another trading day, Sovereign Trust Insurance led the activity chart with the sale 343.5 million units shares worth N1.1 billion, Access Holdings traded 86.2 million equities valued at N2.0 billion, eTranzact transacted 61.1 million stocks worth N1.1 billion, Linkage Assurance exchanged 49.9 million shares valued at N88.0 million, and Chams pulled a turnover of 35.4 million equities for N139.2 million.
Economy
Nigeria’s New Tax System Looking Like Extortion—Peter Obi
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has likened Nigeria’s new tax system to extortion because it fails to clearly state how it intends to deliver “tangible benefits to citizens.”
In a post on X, formerly Twitter on Tuesday, the former Anambra State Governor, therefore, called for the suspension of the implementation of the tax laws, most especially after a renowned global accounting firm, KPMG, highlighted some errors in the laws.
Last week, KPMG Nigeria in a note on its website pinpointed some issues in the new laws, warning that they could discourage investments in the country.
However, the government reacted via the chairman on the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, saying the agency misunderstood the laws.
This week, officials of KPMG had a meeting with the chairman of the National Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, on the issue.
For Mr Obi, “The fact that it took private meetings between the National Revenue Service and KPMG for these serious issues to be acknowledged” makes it more alarming.
He posited that, “It is now undeniable that the tax laws have been fundamentally altered, and even a firm as esteemed as KPMG has pinpointed 31 critical problem areas, from drafting errors to glaring policy contradictions and administrative gaps. This revelation should prompt every responsible government to take immediate action.”
“If experts require closed-door discussions to navigate the complexities of our tax laws, what hope does the average Nigerian have of comprehending the obligations being imposed on them?
“Taxation transcends mere fiscal policy; it represents a social contract between the government and its citizens. You cannot enforce a social contract that isn’t understood or trusted.
“Globally, tax policies are justified by delivering tangible benefits to citizens: improved healthcare, better educational systems, job opportunities, infrastructure development, and social safety nets. This is what the social contract signifies.
“In Nigeria, the narrative is all about how much more the government seeks to extract, rather than what it is prepared to offer in return. A tax system devoid of clear public benefits isn’t reform; it is, quite frankly, extortion,” he stated.
Speaking further, he said, “Typically, months, if not years, are dedicated to consulting with businesses, workers, and civil society before tax drafts are presented for public discussion, with the ramifications clearly explained. People must be informed not only about their financial contributions but also about the benefits that will ensue. This is how legitimacy is cultivated. Yet, in Nigeria, we have seen no such public consultations or discussions regarding the final tax laws, leaving ordinary citizens completely in the dark about both the regulations and the benefits of the taxes they’re expected to pay.
“We have hastily pursued collection without securing a consensus and imposed enforcement without providing adequate explanations. Even after the removal of subsidies, Nigerians remain in limbo, waiting for tangible benefits or relief. Instead, they are grappling with skyrocketing food prices, exorbitant transport costs, dwindling purchasing power, and escalating poverty levels.
“Before we have even begun to address these issues, we are being thrust into an expansive new tax regime, riddled with inconsistencies and producing 31 alarming red flags from a leading global accounting firm. This is not the hallmark of responsible governance.
“Without trust, taxation feels like punishment. Without clarity, it breeds confusion. Without evident public value, it amounts to robbery.
“Nigeria cannot afford to place further burdens on its already struggling citizens. What we need is a government that listens, communicates effectively, and prioritises building national consensus. This is the only viable path to genuine reform, unity, growth, and shared prosperity.”
Economy
Possible Iranian Crude Disruptions Lift Brent Crude to $65 Per Barrel
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent crude hit $65.47 per barrel on Tuesday after it appreciated by 2.5 per cent or $1.60 as the prospect of disruptions to Iranian crude exports overshadowed possible increased supply from Venezuela.
In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $61.15 a barrel after climbing $1.65 or about 2.8 per cent during the session.
The oil market is looking at some developments in members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Iran and Venezuela as well as talks on Russia’s war in Ukraine and US interest in taking control of Greenland.
Iran is facing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years which have lasted for more than two weeks.
The country autocratic government has cracked down on protesters with about 2,000 people killed and thousands more arrested.
The development has drawn a warning from US President Donald Trump of possible military action. The American President said on Monday that any country that does business with Iran would be subjected to a tariff rate of 25 per cent on any business conducted with the United States.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, is the biggest customer for Iranian crude. Others include United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, and the European Union (EU).
Reuters reported that there is a possibility of tighter supplies ahead after four Greek-managed oil tankers were struck by unidentified drones on Tuesday. The tankers were in the Black Sea on the way to load oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal off the Russian coast.
Drone attacks at or near the CPC terminal have intensified in recent weeks and have affected the loading and departure schedules of Kazakhstan’s crude cargoes.
Kazakhstan’s oil output fell sharply at the end of November and early December after damage at the CPC export terminal disrupted flows.
Markets are also grappling with concern over additional crude supply hitting the market with a resumption in Venezuelan exports.
After the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, President Trump said last week that the South American producer is set to hand over to the US as much as 50 million barrels of oil subject to Western sanctions.
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