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Economy

The Recurring Challenge of Capital Spending

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By FBNQuest Research

Having already commented on the revenue side of the 2018-2020 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, we now look at the expenditure and financing projections.

Total FGN spending is projected to rise from N7.44trn in this year’s budget to N8.60trn in 2018. The outturn of N3.10trn in H1 2017, according to the Budget Office of the Federation, was well short of the target of N3.72trn: an overshoot on salaries was more than outweighed by an absence of capital spending.

This sad state of affairs on the capital side can be explained by the delayed passage of the 2017 budget, which was only signed off in June.

The projection of N2.38trn capital spending in 2018 looks fanciful when we consider the slow growth of revenue collection.

On the recurrent side, personnel spending is forecast to rise from N1.88trn to N2.12trn. The outturn in H1 2017 was N1.49trn.

The FGN again allocates N350bn for its special interventions, unchanged from 2017 (although there had been no disbursements by end-June). These are essentially the programmes pledged in the 2015 election campaign.

Those concerned about the vulnerability of oil output to sabotage in the Niger Delta will be pleased to learn that the framework sets aside N65bn for the presidential amnesty programme in 2018, rising to N70bn in each of the two following years.

We note the allocations in the paper of N220bn in each of the three years towards a sinking fund to retire local contractors’ bonds. We are unsure whether these relate to the mountain of arrears accumulated under the previous administration, unearthed in late 2016 and estimated by different sources at +/- N3trn.

The deficit in 2018 is projected at N2.95trn, equivalent to 2.6% of forecast GDP and 52.2% of forecast FGN revenue. The framework has 2018 as the low point fiscally in the period: thereafter the core ratios improve, supported by stronger revenue collection and GDP growth.

There is an interesting section drawing attention to the negative consequences of Nigeria’s transition to middle income status in 2014. The FGN is losing access to the soft-loan windows of partners such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank, and will have to find alternative funding for the substantial vaccination programme. It is therefore working on an aid transition strategy to cushion the impact.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Closes in Stalemate at Midweek

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NASD OTC exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Wednesday, April 16, as the market capitalisation remained unchanged at N1.915 trillion as well as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) at 3,271.02 points.

At the trading session, there was no price gainer or decliner.

The bourse’s data showed a decrease of 95.0 per cent in the volume of securities transacted to 36,757 units from the 736,215 units recorded in the previous trading day, the value of transactions slid by 83.6 per cent to N1.99 million from N12.1 million transacted on Tuesday, and the number of deals fell by 19.2 per cent to 21 deals from the 26 deals recorded a day earlier.

Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units sold for N4.9 billion, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71.2 million units valued at N24.2 million.

Also, Okitipupa Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.6 million units valued at N4.9 billion, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with the sale of 14.7 million units worth N568.1 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with a turnover of 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,603/$1 at NAFEM, N1,620/$1 at Parallel Market

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New Naira Notes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira witnessed a N1.76 or 0.11 per cent depreciation on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Wednesday, April 16.

During the trading session, the local currency was exchanged with the greenback at N1,603.16/$1, in contrast to the N1,601.40/$1 it was traded a day earlier, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Also, the Nigerian currency weakened against the British Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N6.71 to quote at N2,121.97/£1 compared with the previous day’s value of N2,115.26/£1 and tumbled against the Euro by N9.28 to sell for N1,818.17/€1 versus Tuesday’s exchange rate of N1,808.89/€1.

In the parallel market, the Naira lost N5 against the Dollar to finish at N1,620/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,615/$1.

The pressure on the domestic currency came as the central bank sold over $30.00 million at rates between N1,590.00/$ and N1,601.50/$ this week to authorised forex dealers.

At the cryptocurrency market, things turned bullish as the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell, dashed hopes for early rate cuts, citing the need to assess the impact of US tariffs on the global economy.

The Federal Reserve chair also mentioned that the US central bank needed more time to see the effects of tariffs play out in the global economy. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.

Market analysts noted that the remarks disappointed rate cuts optimist by stressing focus on protecting against tariff-driven price hikes from driving a long-term rise in inflation expectations.

Solana (SOL) jumped by 7.2 per cent to trade at $134.28, Cardano (ADA) added 2.8 per cent to close at $0.6209, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 2.5 per cent to $0.1570, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 2.1 per cent to $1,602.70, Ripple (XRP) gained 1.9 per cent to close at $2.09, Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.5 per cent to $84,749.46, and Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 0.7 per cent to $583.08.

But Litecoin (LTC) declined by 0.7 per cent to finish at $75.38, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Nigerians Applaud Dangote for Further Reduction of PMS Price to N835

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The further reduction in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, April 16, 2025, by Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been applauded by Nigerians.

The price slash was the second by the company in a week and it was in reaction to the decline in the price of crude oil in the global market due to the trade war between the United States and China.

In a statement yesterday by the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Mr Anthony Chiejina, it was stated that key partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Techno Oil, will sell petrol to customers at N890 per litre, down from N920 in Lagos, while in the other South-West states, the price will be N900 per litre versus the previous N930.

In addition, Nigerians living in the North-West and North-Central will get the high-quality Dangote petrol at N910 per litre compared with the former price of N940, and those in the South-East, South-South, and North-East will buy at N920 per litre, down from N950 per litre.

Dangote expressed hopes that this latest reduction in PMS prices would generate a positive ripple effect throughout various sectors of the economy, providing much-needed relief to consumers and contributing to broader economic growth, particularly during the Easter season.

It stated that the slash in price reaffirmed its “commitment to providing high-quality petrol at affordable rates, benefiting consumers across the nation. In addition, we are working collaboratively with our partners to ensure equitable reflection of this price reduction.”

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has consistently worked to reduce the prices of petrol and other refined petroleum products, ensuring the continued benefit of Nigerian consumers.

For example, in February, the refinery reduced prices twice by N125.  In addition, products such as diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) have also experienced significant price reductions due to the refinery’s sustained efforts.

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