Economy
Reduced Geopolitical Risk, OPEC+ Meeting Speculations Weaken Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell on Friday as the release of some hostages in Gaza reduced the geopolitical risk premium and indicated that the Israel-Hamas tensions may not have much effect on the oil market.
Brent crude futures depreciated by 84 cents or 1 per cent at $80.58 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.56 or 2 per cent to close at $75.54. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday.
Prices notched their first week of gains in over a month ahead of next week’s meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to decide on production cuts in 2024.
When OPEC+ gathers on November 30, many analysts predicted that the expanded cartel would extend existing 1 million barrels per day cuts into 2024 with others predicting that there would be additional curbs on top of this for all cartel members, and others predicting that this could be limited to just Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The survey comes as OPEC+ wrangles internally over output cuts, with African nations Angola, Nigeria, and Congo not keen to see their targets reduced despite their diminishing capacity.
In June, these three African OPEC producers were forced to accept lower output quotes for next year, and the upcoming meeting was expected to make them commit to additional cuts, with Saudi Arabia expressing discontent over the fact that it shoulders the bulk of the market-tightening burden.
On Friday, the first group of hostages freed from captivity in Gaza returned to Israel as part of a wider truce during which further exchanges of hostages for Palestinian detainees are due to take place.
Israel’s army has allowed eight trucks of fuel and cooking gas to enter the Gaza Strip from Egypt, the army’s liaison office with Palestinians, the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), said on Friday.
Four tankers of fuel and another four tankers carrying cooking gas were transferred from Egypt to UN humanitarian aid organizations in the southern Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing from Egypt, COGAT said.
“The fuel and cooking gas are designated for operating essential humanitarian infrastructure in Gaza,” it said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Analysts say China’s oil demand growth could weaken to about 4 per cent in the first half of 2024 as the property sector crunch weighs on diesel use as the world’s largest oil importer’s longer-term outlook remains lukewarm.
Non-OPEC production growth is set to remain strong, with Brazilian state energy company Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2028, up from 2.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three bellwether stocks weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.31 per cent on Monday, May 18.
This brought the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 54.71 points to 4,133.70 points from 4,188.41 points, and shrank the market capitalisation by N32.73 billion to N2.473 trillion from N2.506 trillion.
Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc contracted by N12.45 to sell at N146.55 per share compared with last Friday’s closing price of N159.00 per share, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined by N2.34 to N70.00 per unit from N72.34 per unit, and NASD Plc lost 50 Kobo to trade at N34.50 per share versus N35.00 per share.
The trio overpowered the N5.56 gained Newrest Asl Plc. This stock ended the trading session at N61.15 per unit, in contrast to the previous session’s N55.59 per unit.
During the trading day, the volume of securities traded by investors slid by 56.1 per cent to 514,142 units from 1.2 million units, and the value of securities dropped 29.8 per cent to close at N17.4 million versus N29.8 million, while the number of deals jumped 12.5 per cent to 27 deals from 24 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.8 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.9 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a horrible day for the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Monday, May 15, as its value further weakened against the United States Dollar.
In the black market window, the Naira lost N5 against the Dollar yesterday to sell for N1,390/$1 compared with the previous value of N1,385/$1, but at the GTBank forex counter, it remained unchanged at N1,383/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), the Nigerian currency depreciated against the greenback by N2.66 or 0.19 per cent to sell for N1,373.70/$1 compared to last Friday’s rate of N1,371.04/$1.
Equally, it fell against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment by N9.05 to trade at N1,839.66/£1 versus N1,830.61/£1, and lost N5.42 on the Euro to close at N1,600.49/€1 versus N1,595.07/€1.
The performance of the local currency during the session indicates early worries despite all signals pointing to stability, amid improved Dollar sales by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with steady, higher oil receipts to bolster the nation’s reserves.
Activity at the market showed that turnover rose 57.3 per cent to $76.29 million on Monday from $48.49 million posted on Friday.
Over the weekend, S&P raised Nigeria’s credit ratings for the first time since 2012 and highlighted improved FX market liquidity and $10 billion turnover recorded in April 2026 as one of the major gains of the CBN-led FX reforms.
The agency said the liberalisation of the exchange rate has bolstered access to foreign currency and enabled a market-driven exchange-rate environment while supporting investor and consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish on Monday as investors monitored developments in the Iran conflict and weighed the impact of surging oil prices on inflation and US interest-rate expectations.
Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.7 per cent to trade at $2,134.10, Cardano (ADA) rose by 0.6 per cent to $0.2515, Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.3 per cent to $85.11, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 0.2 per cent to $643.29, TRON (TRX) increased by 0.03 per cent to $0.3565, and Bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 0.02 per cent to $76,912.12.
On the flip side, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 1.5 per cent to $0.1044, and Ripple (XRP) decreased by 0.5 per cent to $1.38, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
A marginal 0.05 per cent loss was recorded by Customs Street on Monday, as sell-offs by market participants remained.
This was driven by the desire of investors to book profits, having witnessed a significant price appreciation on the stocks in their portfolios.
Yesterday, bargain-hunting in the banking space, which resulted in the sector closing 0.17 per cent higher, could not prevent the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited from going down.
Data showed that the consumer goods segment lost 0.26 per cent, the insurance counter depreciated by 0.20 per cent, the industrial goods index shed 0.09 per cent, and the energy industry retreated by 0.03 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) eased by 126.09 points to 250,204.83 points from 250,330.92 points, and the market capitalisation contracted by N81 billion to N160.363 trillion from N160.444 trillion.
NCR Nigeria and Zichis declined by 9.99 per cent each to sell for N161.20 and N26.49, respectively, Industrial and Medical Gases shrank by 9.93 per cent to N38.10, Sovereign Trust Insurance depreciated by 9.86 per cent to N2.65, and DAAR Communications slipped by 9.78 per cent to N2.03.
On the flip side, Oando gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N51.70, University Press also rose by 10.00 per cent to N5.50, Deap Capital soared by 9.96 per cent to N5.96, May and Baker expanded by 9.94 per cent to N52.00, and Trans-Nationwide Express grew by 9.92 per cent to N7.76.
Yesterday, 800.5 million equities worth N37.1 billion exchanged hands in 87,096 deals compared with the 1.1 billion equities valued at N44.3 billion traded in 65,744 deals last Friday. This showed that the number of deals went up by 32.48 per cent, while the trading volume and value went down by 27.23 per cent and 16.25 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock on the first trading session of this week was UBA with a turnover of 65.0 million units worth N2.8 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 57.3 million units for N1.3 billion, Access Holdings sold 42.3 million units valued at N1.1 billion, DAAR Communications exchanged 36.7 million units for N81.8 million, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 36.6 million units worth N33.0 million.
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