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Economy

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, Trim in Expected Surplus Weaken Oil Prices

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors focused on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and trimming in the projected 2026 oil surplus, with Brent crude trading at $61.28 a barrel after losing 93 cents or 1.49 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $57.60 a barrel, down by 86 cents or 1.47 per cent.

The prospect of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine also appeared to be driving the market lower. Such a deal would likely increase the supply of Russian oil that is currently off the market for most of the world.

Despite attacks, market analysts noted that there seems to be some movement on a possible path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The leaders of Britain, France and Germany held a call on Wednesday with US President Donald Trump to discuss the US’ latest peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine, in what they said was a “critical moment” in the process.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that a recent visit to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff had resolved misunderstandings between the two countries.

Ukraine’s security services (SBU) executed a long-range drone strike on the Vladimir Filanovsky offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea, a key Lukoil facility, forcing a suspension of oil and gas production.

The attack is significant as it marks the first time Kyiv has targeted hydrocarbon extraction assets in the distant Caspian region, demonstrating a growing capability to hit critical upstream assets far from the frontline.

On Wednesday, the US said it seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, as escalating tensions between the two countries raised concerns about supply disruptions.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook for 2025-2026, pointing to resilient consumption in China, India, and the Middle East while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate after 2025.

The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability, a markedly more optimistic stance than the International Energy Agency (IEA’s) earlier glut-heavy narrative.

In its latest update, the agency trimmed the projected 2026 surplus for the first time since May, cutting its glut forecast from 4.09 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day as sanctions on Russia and Venezuela curb supply and as global demand proves stronger than previously assumed. Improved macro conditions and easing tariff concerns also prompted the IEA to revise 2026 demand growth upward by 90,000 barrels per day.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

11 Plc, FrieslandCampina, CSCS Lift NASD Exchange by 1.38%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.38 per cent on Friday, July 3, with the NASD Security Index (NSI) up by 58.80 points to 4,307.26 points from 4,248.46 points, and the market capitalisation closing higher by N35.30 billion to N2.585 trillion from N2.549 trillion.

The price gainers were led by 11 Plc, which expanded by N20.05 to close at N220.55 per share compared with the previous day’s N200.50 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc increased by N5.36 to N151.82 per unit from N146.46 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N3.52 to N90.74 per share from N87.22 per share.

Yesterday, the value of transactions surged by 1,431.2 per cent to N160.1 million from the preceding session’s N10.5 million, and the volume of trades rose by 303.7 per cent to 1.8 million units from 440,653 units, while the number of deals decreased by 34.4 per cent to 21 deals from 32 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 70.7 million units transacted for N4.9 billion.

GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Nigerian Stocks Rebound by 2.19% to Halt Losing Streak

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By Dipo Olowookere

The losing streak on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was halted on Friday after the bourse closed higher by 2.19 per cent at the close of trading activities.

The gains reported by Nigerian stocks were buoyed by renewed bargain-hunting by investors, which resulted in all the key sectors of Customs Street ended in the green territory.

The banking space rose by 2.78 per cent, the insurance counter appreciated by 1.26 per cent, the energy segment expanded by 0.36 per cent, the consumer goods index chalked up 0.06 per cent, and the industrial goods sector grew by 0.05 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 4,918.37 points to 229,240.34 points from 224,321.97 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N3.156 trillion to N147.103 trillion from N143.947 trillion.

Investor sentiment was bullish after 34 stocks ended on the price gainers’ chart and 18 stocks finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index.

The quintet of The Initiates, Universal Insurance, DAAR Communications, Omatek, and Airtel Africa surged by 10.00 per cent to sell for N25.85, 88 Kobo, N1.65, N1.76, and N5,274.00, respectively.

On the flip side, International Energy Insurance lost 9.96 per cent to trade at N4.70, Meyer shed 9.95 per cent to close at N18.55, Veritas Kapital dropped 5.07 per cent to finish at N1.31, Fidelity Bank slipped by 2.17 per cent to N18.00, and Jaiz Bank crashed by 1.84 per cent to N28.12.

During the session, a total of 414.7 million equities worth N25.1 billion exchanged hands in 47,106 deals compared with the 855.4 million equities valued at N28.4 billion transacted in the preceding day in 51,609 deals, implying a contraction in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 51.52 per cent, 11.62 per cent, and 8.73 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Naira Trades Flat at Official Market as CBN Makes Minimal FX Intervention

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira closed flat against the United States Dollar at N1,370.19/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 3.

However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment by N2.29 to settle at N1,829.88/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,832.17/£1, and marginally depreciated against the Euro by 4 Kobo to close at N1,568.32/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,568.28/€1.

At the parallel market, the Naira also traded flat against the US Dollar at N1,390/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also maintained stability at N1,832/$1.

Market conditions improved shortly after the following minimal intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through modest Dollar sales, which boosted liquidity and supported stronger trading activity.

Easing pressure came after half-year profit-taking tapered down, while continued stronger policy signals from the central bank add to near-term support.

Deals executed at the official market on Friday came in at $70.430 million across 82 interbank deals, from $85.517 million the previous day.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continued its recovery after June non-farm payrolls printed at 57,000, less than half the 113,000 consensus, sending the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 64 per cent to 54 per cent and dragging AI stocks sharply lower.

Weak labour data reduces inflationary pressure and, by extension, the Federal Reserve’s justification for holding rates elevated. That transmission mechanism is direct: lower rate-hike odds compress the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto.

Bitcoin regained the $62,000 mark after it rose by 1.3 per cent to $62,475.29.

Cardano (ADA) gained 6.6 per cent to trade at $0.1759, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.14, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 2.4 per cent to $1,756.82, Dogecoin (DOGE) improved by 2.1 per cent to $0.0768, Solana (SOL) chalked up 1.8 per cent to $82.65, TRON (TRX) increased by 1.5 per cent to $0.3235, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.4 per cent to $569.12, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.

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