Economy
Setback for Nigeria’s 2025 Revenue Projection as Brent Now $60 Per Barrel

By Adedapo Adesanya
The latest signals from the global crude oil market suggest a rocky road for Nigeria’s 2025 budget as Brent oil price falls to $60 per barrel over a United States-triggered trade war.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced higher-than-expected tariffs across the board, with tariffs on China the highest. Nigeria, which exports a limited number of goods to the US, including crude oil, was hit with a 14 per cent increase in tariffs.
Since then, President Trump has announced additional tariffs on China, which are 104 per cent as of Wednesday, April 9, the day that the tariffs on all other countries, including the members of the EU, took effect.
China, on Wednesday, hit back at the 104 per cent US tariffs and hiked additional duties on American products to 84 per cent. The Asian country vowed to continue responding to Mr Trump’s tariffs as investors now see a trade war and recession as almost unavoidable.
The global markets have reacted with oil plummeting amid concerns of a recession and reduced demand for oil.
Nigeria is not exempt as it faces a higher shortfall from revenues amid dwindling oil prices, a development that will make it difficult to back the N54.99 trillion budget.
In the budget, the oil price benchmark was put at $75 per barrel with a crude production target of 2.06 million barrels and an exchange rate projection of N1,400 per Dollar.
Analysts expressed concerns regarding the feasibility of these assumptions – particularly the oil production target which currently stands around 1.5 million barrels per day and exchange rate around N1,600 per Dollar.
Calculations show that based on current realities, at the current $60 per barrel, Nigeria daily deficit will fall to around N85 billion even at an exchange rate of N1,400 based on the 2025 budget assumptions.
This will likely impact the revenue that will be remitted as the entire revenue doesn’t go into the coffers of the Nigerian government which receives only taxes and royalties and get other revenues from flaring penalties and Production Sharing Contract (PSC) profits.
Over the weekend, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) admitted that oil prices had weakened to around $65 at the time and noted that this presented challenge to oil exporters like Nigeria.
“Crude oil prices have also weakened – declining by over 12% to approximately US$65.50 per barrel – presenting new dynamics for oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria,” the CBN statement added.
In light of this development, with prices now weaker, financing Nigeria’s budget will one of President Bola Tinubu’s pressing challenges.
Economy
FAAC Disbursement for April 2025 Drops to N1.578trn

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The amount shared by the federal government, the 36 state governments and the 774 local government areas of the federation from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in April 2025 from the revenue generated last month declined by N100 billion, Business Post reports.
This month, FAAC disbursed about N1.578 trillion to the three tiers of government, lower than the N1.678 billion distributed in March 2025.
In a communiqué by the Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Bawa Mokwa, it was stated that the N1.578 trillion comprised statutory revenue of N931.325 billion, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N593.750 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N24.971 billion, and an Exchange Difference revenue of N28.711 billion.
The money was shared after deducting N85.376 billion as cost of collection and N747.180 billion as total transfers, interventions and refunds from the total gross revenue of N2.411 trillion generated by the nation last month.
It was explained that gross statutory revenue of N1.718 trillion was received for March 2025 versus N1.653 trillion received in February 2025, and gross revenue of N637.618 billion was available from VAT compared with N654.456 billion a month earlier.
As for the distribution of the N1.578 trillion, FAAC said it gave the federal government N528.696 billion, the states N530.448 billion, the local councils N387.002 billion, and the benefiting states N132.611 billion as 13 per cent of mineral revenue.
It disclosed that on the N931.325 billion statutory revenue, the federal government received N422.485 billion, the state governments got N214.290 billion, the LGAs were given N165.209 billion, and the oil-producing states went away with N129.341 billion.
Further, from the N593.750 billion VAT revenue, the national government got N89.063 billion, the state governments received N296.875 billion, and the local councils got N207.813 billion.
In addition, from the N24.971 billion EMTL, the central government was given N3.746 billion, the state governments got N12.485 billion, and LGAs shared N8.740 billion.
Economy
Nigeria, South Africa Sign Agreement to Boost Mining

By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria and South Africa have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to boost mining cooperation, focusing on investment, knowledge exchange, and technology transfer.
The agreement was signed in Abuja by the Solid Minerals Development Minister, Mr Dele Alake, and South Africa’s Mineral Resources, Mr Gwede Mantashe.
A statement on Wednesday said the MoU was part of efforts to strengthen ties under the Nigeria–South Africa Bi-National Commission framework.
It noted that the deal sets out specific areas of collaboration alongside defined implementation timelines for joint activities and engagements in the mining sector.
“Both ministers pledged ongoing engagement to advance intra-African trade and implement practical steps outlined in the agreement,” it said.
The ministers also expressed optimism that the renewed partnership would significantly strengthen the mining industries of both countries through shared expertise and innovation.
Key highlights include capacity building in geological methods using UAVs and applying spectral remote sensing technologies for mineral exploration and mapping.
Other areas cover geoscientific data sharing via the Nigeria Geological Survey Agency, training in mineral processing, and value-addition initiatives.
The MoU also supports capacity building in elemental fingerprinting with LA-ICP-MS and joint exploration of agro and energy minerals within Nigeria.
Mr Alake restated that bilateral cooperation holds promise for industrialisation, employment generation, and sustainable economic development across the African continent.
“The agreement on geology, mining, and mineral processing will foster knowledge exchange, promote investment, and encourage regional integration,” Mr Alake stated.
He reiterated Nigeria’s focus on developing its mining sector, noting mutual benefits through mineral wealth and South Africa’s technological expertise.
According to Mr Alake, this synergy will attract investments, build skills, and help diversify Nigeria’s economy for long-term growth and stability.
Mr Mantashe, on his part lauded the agreement, noting that it will be crucial to South Africa, as well as promote cooperation between the two African nations.
Economy
ARM-Harith Secures £10m to Unlock Nigerian Pension Funds

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
About £10 million has been injected into ARM-Harith’s Climate and Transition Infrastructure Fund (ACT Fund) to unlock local institutional capital for climate infrastructure.
The leading African private equity firm received the financial support from the United Kingdom-backed FSD Africa Investments (FSDAi) to unlock nigerian pension funds and catalyse local capital for infrastructure.
It was gathered that 75 per cent of the FSDAi facility would be provided in local currency, a first-of-its- kind approach specifically designed to mitigate the impact of foreign exchange (FX) volatility for pension funds.
This structure is expected to unlock an additional £31 million in pension fund contributions, nearly five times the participation achieved in ARM- Harith’s first fund.
The investment from ARM-Harith and FSDAi introduces an innovative solution to allow Nigerian pension funds to address a longstanding challenge in infrastructure equity finance: the ability to invest while receiving early liquidity.
By enabling predictable interim distributions during the early phases of investment, this innovative facility directly addresses a key barrier that has historically deterred domestic institutional capital from entering the asset class.
“For too long, domestic pension funds have remained on the sidelines of infrastructure equity due to liquidity constraints and heightened perception of risk.
“We are proud to have collaborated with FSDAi to design a pioneering solution that reduces risk for pension funds while delivering both early liquidity and long-term capital growth.
“This is a global first—a groundbreaking private sector-led solution that could fundamentally change how infrastructure equity is financed—not just in Nigeria, but across Africa,” the chief executive of ARM-Harith, Ms Rachel Moré-Oshodi, said.
Also, the Chief Investment Officer of FSDAi, Ms Anne-Marie Chidzero, said, “We are thrilled to collaborate with ARM-Harith to showcase how risk- bearing capital from a market-building investor like FSDAi can be strategically structured to unlock domestic institutional capital. This approach strengthens Africa’s financial markets and facilitates capital allocation towards sustainable, green economic growth across the continent.”
On his part, the British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, Mr Jonny Baxter, said, “The UK government, through its bilateral and investment vehicles is committed to continue to support the country’s financial sector — developing domestic capital markets as a means of financing priority sectors and driving economic development.
“Local currency capital helps mitigate the impact of foreign exchange volatility, narrows the financing gap, supports diversification into new asset classes and into climate- related projects and social sectors – while providing long-term funds to growing businesses.”
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