By Modupe Gbadeyanka
One of the leading rating agencies in the world, S&P Global Ratings, has affirmed its ‘B/B’ long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria with a stable outlook.
At the same time, it affirmed its long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings at ‘ngBBB/ngA-2’.
S&P Global Ratings said the ratings on Nigeria are constrained by its low level of economic wealth, real GDP per capita trend growth rates below those of peers with similar levels of development, and future policy responses that may be difficult to predict because of the highly centralized political environment.
The ratings are supported by relatively low general government debt and modest fiscal deficits, it said.
In a statement, S&P Global Ratings said it expects Nigeria’s economy to achieve real GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2017 and 3.4 percent on average over 2017-2020, supported by improvements in the oil sector and improved government budget execution under its recently released Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017-2020.
It further said a gradual increase in foreign currency inflows through rising export revenues and government external borrowing could help reduce foreign currency shortages in the non-oil sector and allow industry and financial sectors more leeway to contribute to economic growth.
Nevertheless, on a per-capita basis, real GDP trend growth of 0.4 percent (which we proxy by using 10-year weighted-average growth) remains below that of peers with similar wealth levels. Nigeria has significant infrastructure and energy shortfalls and low income levels, with GDP per capita at $1,800 in 2017.
Nigeria is a sizable producer of hydrocarbons. The oil sector’s direct share of nominal GDP is officially estimated at about 10 percent, while oil and gas account for over 90 percent of exports and at least half of fiscal revenues.
“Although oil revenues support the economy when prices are high, we view them as exposing Nigeria to significant volatility in terms of trade and the government to swings in the revenue base,” it said.
Oil’s relatively small contribution to GDP results from the country’s large and growing population, estimated at about 192 million people in 2017, which has resulted in the emergence of other large sectors, such as agriculture (22% of GDP), trade (18%), and information and communication (12%).
Nevertheless, the oil sector has a significant indirect impact on the economy. A marked contraction in oil production, slower implementation of fiscal policy, and a restrictive exchange-rate regime
resulted in Nigeria’s economy contracting, in real terms, by 1.5% of GDP in 2016. Since then, oil production has increased back above 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2017 (against the about 1.6 million bpd reported at times in the second half of 2016).
Oil production has been supported by reduced incidents of sabotage in the Niger Delta as the government’s engagement with community leaders appears to have borne fruit, while repairs are being completed on key export pipelines.
“We have marginally increased our oil price assumptions (see “S&P Global Ratings Raises Its Oil And Natural Gas Prices Assumptions For 2017,” published Dec. 14, 2016, on RatingsDirect) to an average US$53 per barrel (/bbl) over 2017-2020, compared with US$51/bbl at the time of our previous review in September 2016 (see “Federal Republic of Nigeria Ratings Lowered To ‘B/B’ On Weak Growth Dynamics; Outlook Stable,”),” S&P Global Ratings said.
Unlisted Securities Market Gets 0.34% Boost Thursday
By Adedapo Adesanya
Amid an increase in trading value and volume, the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended in the positive territory on Thursday, January 26, as it shot up by 0.34 per cent.
This was buoyed by the increase in the share price of Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc by 50 Kobo to N13.00 per unit from N12.50 per unit, and the surge in the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc by 30 Kobo to N62.48 per unit from the preceding session’s N62.18 per unit.
This jerked the total value of the unlisted securities market by N3.09 billion to close at N923.76 billion versus N920.67 billion of the previous day, as the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) increased by 2.36 points to settle at 703.01 points, in contrast to the midweek’s 700.66 points.
During the session, market participants executed eight deals at the bourse, 68 per cent lower than the 25 deals executed a day earlier.
However, the value of transactions increased during the session by 41.3 per cent to N4.9 million from N3.5 million, and the volume of trades jumped by 52.4 per cent to 189,670 units from the 121,494 units published on Wednesday.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 61.1 million units worth N49.2 million. UBN Property Plc stood in second place with 29.7 million units valued at N21.1 million, while NASD Plc was in third place with 944,112 units valued at N13.6 million.
Also, VFD Group Plc maintained its position as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 422,074 units sold for N103.0 million, FrieslandCampina WAMCO Group Plc was in second place with 899,657 units valued at N59.1 million, while Geo-Fluids Plc was in third place for trading 61.1 million units for N49.2 million.
Naira Crashes at Parallel Market, Gains at Official Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira crashed against the United States Dollar at the parallel market on Thursday by N4 or 0.54 per cent to trade at N752/$1, in contrast to Wednesday’s rate of N748/$1.
However, in the official market, which is the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window, the Nigerian currency appreciated against the greenback yesterday by 45 Kobo or 0.1 per cent to quote at N461.25/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N461.70/$1.
A 58.9 per cent or $64.66 million decrease in the value of forex turnover in the spot market helped the local currency close stronger during the session. Data from FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that FX trades worth $45.16 million were carried out compared with the $109.82 million executed in the previous trading day.
Also, in the Peer-2-Peer (P2P) segment of the FX market, the domestic currency gained N2 against the American Dollar to sell at N764/$1 versus Wednesday’s N766/$1.
However, in the interbank segment, the Naira lost 24 Kobo against the British Pound Sterling to close at N567.21/£1 compared with the previous N567.45/£1, and depreciated by 20 Kobo against the Euro to quote at N500.73/€1, in contrast to N500.53/€1.
Meanwhile, most of the tokens monitored by Business Post in the crypto market depreciated in value at the close of transactions on Thursday, with Litecoin (LTC) shedding 1.6 per cent to trade at $87.48.
Further, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.4 per cent to sell at $0.4109, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.4 per cent to quote at $305.07, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 0.2 per cent to finish at $0.0862, and Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.01 per cent to sell at $23,044.70.
Conversely, Cardano (ADA) appreciated yesterday by 2.8 per cent to settle at $0.3808, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.6 per cent to sell at $1,604.89, and Solana added a 0.02 per cent to its value to close at $24.36.
but the prices of the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and Binance USD (BUSD) remained unchanged at the close of trades at $1.00, respectively.
Stock Market Rebounds by 0.29% as GTCO, Others Enjoy Patronage
By Dipo Olowookere
A 0.29 per cent growth was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Thursday on the back of renewed demand for stocks after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) aggressively cut down the stop rate of treasury bills on Wednesday.
The disappointment resulted in investors looking for alternative investment instruments, and equities were the next point of call.
In the previous two trading sessions, the stock market was down, but it rebounded yesterday on the back of a fresh bargain-hunting, which consequently pushed the All-Share Index (ASI) higher by 153.31 points to 52,752.96 points from 52,599.65 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N83 billion to N28.733 trillion from N28.650 trillion.
According to data from the NGX, the banking and energy sectors appreciated by 1.58 per cent each, the insurance space rose by 1.01 per cent, and the consumer goods counter grew by 0.05 per cent, while the industrial goods index depreciated by 0.01 per cent.
During the session, investors traded 139.7 million shares worth N2.0 billion in 3,549 deals compared with the 119.8 million shares valued at N2.7 billion traded in 3,552 deals, indicating an increase in the trading volume by 16.61 per cent, a decline in the trading value by 25.93 per cent, and a drop in the number of deals by 0.08 per cent.
GTCO emerged as the most traded equity yesterday with the sale of 17.8 million units, followed by Access Holdings, which transacted 15.4 million units. Fidelity Bank exchanged 11.9 million shares, Mutual Benefits sold 6.9 million equities, and Dangote Sugar traded 6.7 million stocks.
The market breadth was positive on Thursday, with 25 price gainers and seven price losers, indicating a very strong investor sentiment.
Geregu Power gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N147.40, Coronation Insurance appreciated by 9.76 per cent to 45 Kobo, Chellarams improved by 9.70 per cent to N1.81, International Energy Insurance grew by 9.43 per cent to 58 Kobo, and Tripple Gee jumped by 9.09 per cent to 96 Kobo.
On the flip side, RT Briscoe lost 9.09 per cent to settle at 30 Kobo, Royal Exchange dropped 8.24 per cent to sell at 78 Kobo, Courteville depreciated by 7.84 per cent to 47 Kobo, Linkage Assurance fell by 4.00 per cent to 48 Kobo, and Transcorp shed 0.82 per cent to N1.21.
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