Economy
Stanbic IBTC Bank November PMI Shows Sharp Rise in New Orders
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
In November 2025, business activity witnessed an expansion, through the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slightly went down to 53.6 points from the 54.0 points recorded in October.
According to Stanbic IBTC Bank, which released the latest figure, there was a sharp rise in new orders, helped by improvement in customer demand for new products introduced by business owners amid an ease in inflationary pressures.
It was disclosed that input costs increased at the slowest pace in almost five years, while output prices rose to the least extent since April 2020.
The lender said output growth eased slightly in November but remained marked overall, as expansions were signalled across all four broad sectors covered by the survey.
Panellists linked output growth to higher sales, the securing of more customers and the launch of new products, which also helped to boost new business.
New orders increased for the 13th month running, and at a sharp pace that was the fastest in three months. Companies were helped by an easing of inflationary pressures, continuing the trend seen through much of 2025.
“Nigeria’s headline PMI remained in the expansionary territory in November but moderated when compared to October.
“Nonetheless, the strong output continues to reflect easing inflationary pressures which is helping to support higher sales for businesses who are now launching new products and securing more customers.
“Hence, new orders rose to a three-month high of 56.9 points from 56.3 points in October. More positively, new orders have now increased in each of the past 13 months. Consequently, output increased across all four broad sectors (Agriculture, Manufacturing, Wholesale & retail, and Services) covered by the survey, led by Manufacturing and Services.
“Input costs continue to soften, easing to their slowest since December 2020, underpinned by weaker rises in both purchase prices and staff costs. Survey participants that signalled a rise in purchase prices compared to October linked this to higher costs for raw materials and transportation. The changes in output prices also mirrored the input cost. This is as output price inflation also eased in November, slowing for the sixth time in seven months to the weakest since April 2020,” the Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, commented.
“We still see the Nigerian economy growing by 4.0% in 2025. Both Manufacturing and Services are likely to see higher growth in 2025 compared to 2024 levels, based on the results from the PMI surveys so far this year.
“Elsewhere, the government has been visible in infrastructure, livestock development, easing trade constraints, and attracting investments in oil & gas and manufacturing.
“Aside from that, the Dangote refinery is expected to continue to have forward-linkage impact on other sectors of the economy.
“Also, likely lower interest rates in line with lower inflation and exchange rate stabilization should support private consumption and business investments in 2026. Because of these factors, we see more sectors contributing to real GDP growth rate in 2026 compared to 2025, likely translating to an improvement in the quality of lives of the citizens relative to 2025,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.
With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.
The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.
“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.
“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.
“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and Afriland Properties Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.61 per cent on Tuesday, July 14.
CSCS Plc saw its stock value drop N9.08 to close at N82.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N91.48 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 17 Kobo to sell at N15.00 per unit versus N15.70 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities pulled back the market capitalisation by N41.64 billion to N2.546 trillion from N2.587 trillion, and cracked the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 69.36 points to 4,242.31 points from 4,311.67 points.
It was observed that the exchange witnessed two price advancers during the session, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which gained N1.37 to end at N151.37 per share compared with the previous day’s N150.00 per share, and Food Concepts Plc chalked up 5 Kobo to settle at N2.50 per unit versus N2.45 per unit.
The volume of securities traded by market participants surged by 50.7 per cent to 13.7 million units from the previous 9.1 million units, while the value of securities went down by 79.7 per cent to N65.2 million from N320.4 million, and the number of deals crashed by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from the previous session’s 28 deals.
At the close of transactions, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc, which exchanged 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units transacted for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.
