Economy
Stears Sees Nigeria’s Inflation at 31.85% in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Stears, an economic analysis and data-driven insights provider, has forecast that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate may jump as high as 31.85 per cent in 2024 amid the continued effects of policies instituted by President Bola Tinubu.
In its 2024 African Outlook Report, delivering nuanced insights into the continent’s economic landscape, the firm said Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest economy would likely see an average annual inflation rate ranging from 27.59 per cent to a worst-case scenario of 31.85 per cent for 2024.
The report highlighted that inflation on the continent averaged 7.8 per cent in 2023, with a nuanced forecast ranging between 6 per cent and 7.4 per cent for 2024.
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose from 21.34 per cent in December 2022 to 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the highest since August 2005.
According to Stears, the continued rise in inflation will necessitate proactive measures for economic stability.
Last year, President Tinubu embarked on policy reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification to prop up needed revenue and allow for ease in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
Controlling Nigeria’s inflation will be one of the top challenges for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, who took over office last year. The banker is yet to hold a rate-setting meeting but said his administration at the apex bank will tackle inflation over the first half of this year.
“While absolute inflation is still rising, the declining rate of growth indicates progress. The CBN is confident that with continued tightening measures for the next two quarters, we will be able to effectively manage inflation,” he said at a bankers’ dinner in November 2023.
According to Mrs Dumebi Oluwole, Stears’ senior economist, “The elimination of petrol subsidies has significantly heightened the cost of living for consumers, leading to an overall uptick in inflation. Coupled with the devaluation of the naira, this has precipitated higher exchange rates, complicating the economic landscape for both consumers and businesses.”
Stears then emphasised the need for strategic interventions to enhance liquidity and stabilise the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of collaborative initiatives between the government, regulatory bodies, and the private sector for sustained economic growth.
In 2024, Stears projected Africa’s overall growth at 4.0 per cent, a notable increase from 3.3 per cent in 2023, positioning it as the second-highest globally, trailing only Asia (4.8 per cent).
It added that East Africa would take centre stage in this growth narrative, exhibiting consistently higher growth rates than the rest of the continent.
Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya are identified as key drivers, collectively contributing significantly to the region’s economic resurgence.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States has lamented Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different products, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods, as it rationalised the recent decision to slap a 14 per cent retaliatory tariff.
The United States Trade Representative, in a statement on Monday posted on its X platform, said Nigeria’s restrictions on items like beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, and spirits limit US market access and reduce export opportunities.
“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for US businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market,” it wrote.
Last week, the administration of President Donald Trump imposed various tariffs ranging between 10 per cent and 65 per cent on different countries across the world, including Nigeria which got a 14 per cent tariff on its exports to the US.
In response, the Nigerian Minister of Trade, Industry, and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would take a pragmatic approach and will boost non-oil exports to deal with the drawbacks from the US move.
She also said Nigeria will be willing to negotiate and will be speaking with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the way forward.
On his part, the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, said that the Economic Management Team (EMT) would meet to assess the likely impact of the 14 per cent tariff on goods exported from Nigeria to the US.
He said the EMT will afterwards, make recommendations to cushion its impact on the nation’s economy.
The Minister also said the federal government will boost non-revenue as a means of cushioning the adverse effects to trade tariffs imposed on countries by President Trump.
Mr Edun also assured that while the adverse effect on Nigeria will be through an oil price plunge, the government is intensifying efforts to ramp up oil production and boost non-oil revenues.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria and Japan have launched a strategic venture capital initiative that will channel Naira-denominated investments into high-growth startups, shielding them from currency risks while unlocking access to long-term concessional financing.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, met with officials from the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to finalise the framework of the fund, which has now received formal approval from the Japanese government.
Speaking on the development, Mr Edun welcomed the development, calling it a timely response to Nigeria’s youthful demography.
He said this fund provides critical financial backing across the capital structure—from equity to debt—and is aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda for inclusive economic growth, he stated.
On his part, NSIA CEO, Mr Aminu Umar-Sadiq confirmed that the initiative satisfies two key conditions set by the Minister: mitigating foreign exchange volatility by investing in Naira and securing first-loss or grant capital to de-risk private investment.
“With JICA’s support, this is not just a proposed solution—it’s a fully approved, ready-to-launch initiative,” Mr Umar-Sadiq said.
By combining international concessional financing with domestic currency stability, the fund marks a new model for venture capital in Africa, aimed squarely at empowering the next generation of Nigerian innovators.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, has said the country’s Economic Management Team (EMT) would meet to assess the likely impact of the 14 per cent tariff on goods exported from Nigeria to the United States.
Mr Edun made the disclosure while speaking at an event organised by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) on Monday.
The Trump administration recently imposed various tariffs ranging between 10 per cent and 65 per cent on different countries across the world, including Nigeria which got a 14 per cent tariff on its exports to the United States.
He said the EMT will afterwards make recommendations to cushion its impact on the nation’s economy, noting that the federal government will boost non-revenue as a means of cushioning the adverse effects to trade tariffs imposed on countries by President Trump.
Mr Edun stated that while the adverse effect on Nigeria will result in an oil price plunge, the government is intensifying efforts to ramp up oil production and boost non-oil revenues.
The Finance Minister noted that the US, which is at the centre of the tariff war had on April 2, announced that it would exempt mineral exports, including oil.
“Therefore, it’s the price effect, the oil price effect that may affect Nigeria. And it is the job and responsibility of the economic management team of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, amongst others, to look at the various scenarios that might play out.
“There’s global uncertainty at a huge level, so nobody knows exactly what will happen- the announcement that has been made. We’re not sure what will be delayed, what will be reversed, or what will be implemented.
“So, it is not an announcement that the budget is being reviewed. It’s an announcement that it is our responsibility to look at the various scenarios and options and advise government accordingly.”
Mr Edun also highlighted plans to look at budget adjustment, expenditure prioritisation as well as innovative non-debt financing strategies.
According to him, Nigeria had recorded a trade surplus in the last three years (2022-2024) with the US.
“Nigeria-US Trade has been in surplus in the last 3 years (2022-2024). Nigeria’s exports to the US were N1.8 trillion, N2.6 trillion and N5.5 trillion in 2022-2024, respectively.
“Fortunately, oil and mineral exports accounted for 92 per cent. Implying oil and minerals exports amounted to N5.08 trillion in value while non-oil was just N0.44 trillion.
“Consequently, the tariff effect on exports is negligible if we sustain our oil and minerals export volume.
“The adverse effect on Nigeria will be through oil price plunge. We are intensifying efforts to ramp up crude oil production to curtail any price effect
“We are also focusing on non-oil revenue mobilisation by FIRS and Customs, budget adjustment and prioritisation where possible, and also and innovative non-debt financing strategies,” the Minister said.
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