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Stears Sees Nigeria’s Inflation at 31.85% in 2024

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Stears

By Adedapo Adesanya

Stears, an economic analysis and data-driven insights provider, has forecast that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate may jump as high as 31.85 per cent in 2024 amid the continued effects of policies instituted by President Bola Tinubu.

In its 2024 African Outlook Report, delivering nuanced insights into the continent’s economic landscape, the firm said Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest economy would likely see an average annual inflation rate ranging from 27.59 per cent to a worst-case scenario of 31.85 per cent for 2024.

The report highlighted that inflation on the continent averaged 7.8 per cent in 2023, with a nuanced forecast ranging between 6 per cent and 7.4 per cent for 2024.

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose from 21.34 per cent in  December 2022 to 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the highest since August 2005.

According to Stears, the continued rise in inflation will necessitate proactive measures for economic stability.

Last year, President Tinubu embarked on policy reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification to prop up needed revenue and allow for ease in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

Controlling Nigeria’s inflation will be one of the top challenges for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, who took over office last year. The banker is yet to hold a rate-setting meeting but said his administration at the apex bank will tackle inflation over the first half of this year.

“While absolute inflation is still rising, the declining rate of growth indicates progress. The CBN is confident that with continued tightening measures for the next two quarters, we will be able to effectively manage inflation,” he said at a bankers’ dinner in November 2023.

According to Mrs Dumebi Oluwole, Stears’ senior economist, “The elimination of petrol subsidies has significantly heightened the cost of living for consumers, leading to an overall uptick in inflation. Coupled with the devaluation of the naira, this has precipitated higher exchange rates, complicating the economic landscape for both consumers and businesses.”

Stears then emphasised the need for strategic interventions to enhance liquidity and stabilise the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of collaborative initiatives between the government, regulatory bodies, and the private sector for sustained economic growth.

In 2024, Stears projected Africa’s overall growth at 4.0 per cent, a notable increase from 3.3 per cent in 2023, positioning it as the second-highest globally, trailing only Asia (4.8 per cent).

It added that East Africa would take centre stage in this growth narrative, exhibiting consistently higher growth rates than the rest of the continent.

Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya are identified as key drivers, collectively contributing significantly to the region’s economic resurgence.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

OPEC+ Boost Output by 206kb/d as Iran War Limits Production

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opec oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

Eight members of ​OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to the increase in May quota at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

However, the rise will be in theory, as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has affected production.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route, since the end of February and cut ​exports from some OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These are the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise ​production even before the conflict began.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, ​such as Russia, are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. For Nigeria, even as Africa’s largest producer, it has not been able to keep production quotas steady.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day ​represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Also meeting on Sunday, a separate OPEC+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.

May’s OPEC+ increase is the ​same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the ​war began to disrupt ⁠oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

The eight OPEC+ members have raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to ​March 2026. The sub-group holds its next meeting on May 3.

Market analysts have warned that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the closure of the strait is prolonged and continues, due to damage to energy assets across the critical Middle East region.

As of the time of this report, Brent crude is trading at $108 per barrel, below the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $109 per barrel.

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Economy

Seplat Operations Resume After Pay Rise Deal With Striking Workers

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Seplat Energy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Workers at Seplat Energy will resume work after a strike action that impacted production was called off by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) over the weekend, with the company issuing written commitments ‌on pay rises.

Top employees began an indefinite strike last Friday as talks over a collective bargaining agreement and staff ​welfare issues broke down. The action came at a time when Nigeria is ​seeking to maximise production amid rising global oil ⁠prices.

According to Reuters, in an April 4 letter to the chief executive of Seplat Nigeria, Mr Roger Brown, PENGASSAN said it had directed members at the local energy firm to immediately suspend industrial action after negotiations resumed with ​the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited. Other less-skilled workers are covered by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and did not partake in the strike with PENGASSAN.

The union said ​talks on a 2026 collective bargaining agreement would continue, with the ‌aim ⁠of concluding outstanding issues by April 13. However, according to the publication, the union did not disclose more details about its financial demands.

“We can confirm that the union has suspended its notice ​of industrial action ​to allow ⁠negotiations to conclude on outstanding items within an agreed framework,” Seplat spokesperson, Mr Ogechukwu Udeagha, ​said, adding that “operations are recommencing at our various locations.”

Seplat Energy’s group production averaged 131,506 ​barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day in 2025, according to its latest audited results. That is the equivalent of around ​7 per cent–9 per cent of Nigeria’s total liquids production.

The company expects ​output ⁠to rise to 155,000 barrels of oil ​equivalent per ⁠day, making any sustained disruption particularly sensitive for Nigeria’s supply outlook. This comes as it seeks to ​scale production while remaining a major supplier of gas to Nigeria’s ​domestic power market.

With the company’s output expected to rise, any prolonged disruption would have significantly impacted Nigeria’s oil supply and fiscal outlook.

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Economy

NGX Weekly Turnover Drops 27.7% to 2.856 billion Equities

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accelerated dynamism of NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

The weekly turnover of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited shrank by 27.70 per cent or 1.094 billion equities, partly due to the inability of market participants to trade last Friday as a result of the Good Friday public holiday declared by the federal government.

In the week, investors bought and sold 2.856 billion equities worth N113.597 billion in 215,287 deals versus the 3.950 billion equities valued at N201.312 billion transacted in 359,642 deals in the preceding week.

The activity chart was led by the financial services industry with 1.811 billion shares valued at N61.901 billion in 86,818 deals, contributing 63.41 per cent and 54.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The services sector traded 299.895 million stocks worth N2.966 billion in 13,797 deals, and the ICT segment exchanged 183.233 million equities for N14.654 billion in 25,287 deals.

Wema Bank, Access Holdings, and Secure Electronic Technology accounted for 734.659 million shares worth N14.134 billion in 12,319 deals, contributing 25.72 per cent and 12.44 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.

Data from the NGX said 29 stocks gained weight versus 47 stocks of the previous week, as 57 shares lost weight versus 45 shares in the preceding week, while 62 equities closed flat versus 56 equities a week earlier.

Multiverse led the gainers’ chart after it gained 20.66 per cent to trade at N20.15, UPDC REIT appreciated by 15.49 per cent to N8.20, International Energy Insurance chalked up 12.54 per cent to quote at N3.32, Austin Laz grew by 10.47 per cent to N4.43, and Unilever Nigeria rose by 10.00 per cent to N103.40.

Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology topped the losers’ table after it lost 21.54 per cent to close at N1.02, John Holt declined by 18.47 per cent to N15.45, May and Baker depreciated by 16.57 per cent to N35.00, Aluminium Extrusion moderated by 16.27 per cent to N10.55, and Legend Internet slipped by 16.00 per cent to N6.30.

Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 0.39 per cent to 201,698,89 points, and the market capitalisation rose by 0.65 per cent to N129.806 trillion.

In the same vein, all other indices finished higher apart from the main board, insurance, MERI Value, consumer goods, industrial goods and growth indices, which went down by 0.29 per cent, 4.25 per cent, 0.36 per cent, 1.74 per cent, 0.24 per cent, and 0.06 per cent, respectively, while the sovereign bond index closed flat.

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