Economy
Stears Sees Nigeria’s Inflation at 31.85% in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Stears, an economic analysis and data-driven insights provider, has forecast that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate may jump as high as 31.85 per cent in 2024 amid the continued effects of policies instituted by President Bola Tinubu.
In its 2024 African Outlook Report, delivering nuanced insights into the continent’s economic landscape, the firm said Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest economy would likely see an average annual inflation rate ranging from 27.59 per cent to a worst-case scenario of 31.85 per cent for 2024.
The report highlighted that inflation on the continent averaged 7.8 per cent in 2023, with a nuanced forecast ranging between 6 per cent and 7.4 per cent for 2024.
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose from 21.34 per cent in December 2022 to 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the highest since August 2005.
According to Stears, the continued rise in inflation will necessitate proactive measures for economic stability.
Last year, President Tinubu embarked on policy reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification to prop up needed revenue and allow for ease in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
Controlling Nigeria’s inflation will be one of the top challenges for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, who took over office last year. The banker is yet to hold a rate-setting meeting but said his administration at the apex bank will tackle inflation over the first half of this year.
“While absolute inflation is still rising, the declining rate of growth indicates progress. The CBN is confident that with continued tightening measures for the next two quarters, we will be able to effectively manage inflation,” he said at a bankers’ dinner in November 2023.
According to Mrs Dumebi Oluwole, Stears’ senior economist, “The elimination of petrol subsidies has significantly heightened the cost of living for consumers, leading to an overall uptick in inflation. Coupled with the devaluation of the naira, this has precipitated higher exchange rates, complicating the economic landscape for both consumers and businesses.”
Stears then emphasised the need for strategic interventions to enhance liquidity and stabilise the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of collaborative initiatives between the government, regulatory bodies, and the private sector for sustained economic growth.
In 2024, Stears projected Africa’s overall growth at 4.0 per cent, a notable increase from 3.3 per cent in 2023, positioning it as the second-highest globally, trailing only Asia (4.8 per cent).
It added that East Africa would take centre stage in this growth narrative, exhibiting consistently higher growth rates than the rest of the continent.
Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya are identified as key drivers, collectively contributing significantly to the region’s economic resurgence.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.
Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.
She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.
“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.
She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”
“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.
“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.70 per cent on Thursday, June 25, after three price gainers overpowered the two price losers recorded at the close of business.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N43.79 billion to N2.618 trillion from N2.574 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 72.96 points to close at 4,362.32 points, in contrast to Wednesday’s 4,289.36 points.
Yesterday, the price advancers were led by Nipco Plc, which chalked up N31.79 to close at N349.76 per unit versus the preceding day’s N317.97 per unit. Okitipupa Plc gained N18.00 to end at N298.00 per share versus the previous session’s N280.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N7.11 to N86.79 per unit from N79.68 per unit.
On the flip side, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc crumbled by 32 Kobo to close at N21.09 per share compared with the N21.41 per share it closed at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 25 Kobo to N2.51 per unit from N2.76 per unit.
During the session, the value of securities traded by investors went down by 86.7 per cent to N10.9 million from the preceding session’s N82.9 million, and the volume of securities dropped 84.9 per cent to 10.9 million units from the previous 82.9 million, while the number of deals grew by 84.2 per cent to 35 deals from 19 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.4 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further suffered a 0.64 per cent decline on Thursday as the bears tightened their grip on the bourse.
For the second straight session, all the key sectors of Customs Street pointed south, with the energy counter down by 5.22 per cent. The insurance index slumped by 2.59 per cent, the banking space depreciated by 0.28 per cent, and the consumer goods segment moderated by 0.06 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat, though with a marginal fall.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,493.71 points to 233,580.83 points from 235,074.54 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N959 billion to N149.888 trillion from N150.847 trillion.
Investor sentiment remained weak after a negative market breadth index, as there were 21 price gainers and 34 price losers.
Aradel and Deap Capital went down by 10.00 per cent each to N1,575.00 and N4.05, respectively. Trans-Nationwide Express fell by 9.90 per cent to N3.64, Regency Alliance slipped by 9.57 per cent to N85 Kobo, and C&I Leasing dipped by 9.48 per cent to N28.12.
Conversely, Red Star Express grew by 9.60 per cent to N24.55, Legend Internet expanded by 9.09 per cent to N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 7.10 per cent to N8.30, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 5.45 per cent to N8.70, and Ellah Lakes improved by 4.65 per cent to N9.00.
Yesterday, market participants traded 393.7 million equities valued at N19.2 billion in 45,813 deals compared with the 488.1 million equities worth N20.9 billion transacted in 46,239 deals recorded a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 19.34 per cent, 8.13 per cent, and 0.92 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was Access Holdings with a turnover of 39.1 million units worth N896.2 million, Chams traded 24.5 million units valued at N96.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 24.1 million units for N436.9 million, Sterling Holdings exchanged 23.8 million units valued at N182.2 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 18.9 million units worth N2.1 billion.
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