Economy
Stears Sees Nigeria’s Inflation at 31.85% in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Stears, an economic analysis and data-driven insights provider, has forecast that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate may jump as high as 31.85 per cent in 2024 amid the continued effects of policies instituted by President Bola Tinubu.
In its 2024 African Outlook Report, delivering nuanced insights into the continent’s economic landscape, the firm said Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest economy would likely see an average annual inflation rate ranging from 27.59 per cent to a worst-case scenario of 31.85 per cent for 2024.
The report highlighted that inflation on the continent averaged 7.8 per cent in 2023, with a nuanced forecast ranging between 6 per cent and 7.4 per cent for 2024.
Nigeria’s inflation rate rose from 21.34 per cent in December 2022 to 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the highest since August 2005.
According to Stears, the continued rise in inflation will necessitate proactive measures for economic stability.
Last year, President Tinubu embarked on policy reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification to prop up needed revenue and allow for ease in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
Controlling Nigeria’s inflation will be one of the top challenges for the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, who took over office last year. The banker is yet to hold a rate-setting meeting but said his administration at the apex bank will tackle inflation over the first half of this year.
“While absolute inflation is still rising, the declining rate of growth indicates progress. The CBN is confident that with continued tightening measures for the next two quarters, we will be able to effectively manage inflation,” he said at a bankers’ dinner in November 2023.
According to Mrs Dumebi Oluwole, Stears’ senior economist, “The elimination of petrol subsidies has significantly heightened the cost of living for consumers, leading to an overall uptick in inflation. Coupled with the devaluation of the naira, this has precipitated higher exchange rates, complicating the economic landscape for both consumers and businesses.”
Stears then emphasised the need for strategic interventions to enhance liquidity and stabilise the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of collaborative initiatives between the government, regulatory bodies, and the private sector for sustained economic growth.
In 2024, Stears projected Africa’s overall growth at 4.0 per cent, a notable increase from 3.3 per cent in 2023, positioning it as the second-highest globally, trailing only Asia (4.8 per cent).
It added that East Africa would take centre stage in this growth narrative, exhibiting consistently higher growth rates than the rest of the continent.
Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya are identified as key drivers, collectively contributing significantly to the region’s economic resurgence.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Wednesday, August 5, as the market witnessed weaker trading activity with only two deals executed.
In the midweek session, the volume of securities exchanged by investors dropped 99.9 per cent to 802 units from the 1.6 million units recorded on Tuesday. The value of securities further decreased by 99.6 per cent to N208,240 from the preceding session’s N47.6 million, and the number of deals significantly went down by 93.9 per cent to two deals from the 33 deals recorded a day earlier.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 76.9 million units transacted for N5.5 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.
There were no price gainers or losers yesterday.
As a result, the market capitalisation stood unmoving at N2.739 trillion, while the NASD Security Index (NSI) remained unchanged at 4,563.96 points.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira slid against the US Dollar by N2.28 or 0.17 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, August 5, to N1,363.85/$1 from N1,362.55/$1.
The local currency also declined against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N5.97 to close at N1,837.38/£1 compared with Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,831.41/£1, and against the Euro, it crashed by N6.54 to quote at N1,575.25/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,568.71/€1.
But at the black market, the Nigerian Naira traded flat against the greenback yesterday at N1,400/$1, and also remained unchanged at the GTBank FX desk at N1,373/$1.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says rates have narrowed to below two per cent, while the country’s external reserves have risen above $52.5 billion, reflecting the impact of its ongoing monetary and foreign exchange reforms.
CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso, represented by the Acting Director of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations, Mrs Hakama Sidi-Ali, disclosed this on Tuesday during the CBN Fair in Gombe. He noted that reforms introduced since 2023 had significantly reduced the disparity between the official FX market and the parallel market.
“The Naira continues to strengthen, with the spread between official and Bureau de Change rates now below two per cent,” he said, adding that reserves at $52.5 billion were supported by sustained inflows and renewed investor confidence in the economy.
Interbank FX transactions slid as weaker market activities dropped total Dollar volume exchanged to $75.35 million, a 51.8 per cent decline from $156.23 million in turnover quoted at the previous close.
The deals at the NFEM window also fell as data from the central bank put Wednesday’s quote at 82 from 139.
In the cryptocurrency market, major were down as global risk sentiment softened as a key world equity index slipped and chipmakers fell.
The MSCI All Country World Index snapped a five-day run to fall 0.2 per cent as chipmakers retreated on both sides of the Pacific. South Korea’s Kospi, a bellwether for the AI trade, dropped 4.4 per cent.
Ripple (XRP) depleted by 1.7 per cent to $1.05, Binance Coin (BNB) decreased by 1.0 per cent to $594.87, Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 0.9 per cent to $0.1884, TRON (TRX) shrank by 0.2 per cent to $0.3261, Solana (SOL) crumbled by 0.1 per cent to $74.00, and Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 0.1 per cent to $0.0697.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) gained 2.3 per cent to trade at $1,911.41, and Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.8 per cent to $64,759.28, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
The domestic stock exchange rebounded by 0.05 per cent on Wednesday on the back of renewed bargain-hunting by investors, though the level of activity waned.
After bleeding for a few days, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited heaved a sigh of relief yesterday, as the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 109.41 points to close at 244,912.24 points compared with the previous day’s 244,802.83 points, and the market capitalisation garnered N71 billion to settle at N158.087 trillion versus Tuesday’s N158.016 trillion.
Business Post reports that despite the rebound recorded by Customs Street at midweek, the market breadth index remained negative, as there were 20 price advancers and 29 price decliners, implying bearish investor sentiment.
Linkage Assurance appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, AVA Capital rose by 9.55 per cent to N10.90, Fortis Global Insurance advanced by 7.69 per cent to N2.80, McNichols gained 7.34 per cent to finish at N5.85, and Coronation Insurance surged by 5.51 per cent to N2.49.
Conversely, Honeywell Flour depreciated by 9.94 per cent to N16.30, PZ Cussons gave up 9.94 per cent to trade at N74.75, Zichis crashed by 9.74 per cent to N20.76, Learn Africa slipped by 9.62 per cent to N9.40, and Neimeth tumbled by 8.33 per cent to N8.25.
The busiest equity was FCMB, with a turnover of 369.2 million units valued at N4.1 billion. Chams transacted 46.7 million units worth N201.8 million, First Holdco transacted 43.5 million units for N5.7 billion, Access Holdings sold 29.8 million units worth N778.0 million, and Linkage Assurance exchanged 19.6 million units valued at N33.5 million.
At the close of transactions, market participants bought and sold 824.1 million units worth N25.5 billion in 48,114 deals, in contrast to the 1.6 billion units sold for N28.7 billion in 54,160 deals a day earlier, showing a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 48.49 per cent, 11.15 per cent, and 11.16 per cent, respectively.
