Economy
Stock Analysis: Flour Mills Gets Sell Rating
By Christian Orajekwe
Following the conclusion of the N38 billion Rights Issue (RI) and recent discussions with management, we revise our TP and earnings estimates for FLOURMILL. Feedback is that the RI was successful (oversubscribed).
On net, we increase the post-rights shares outstanding by 56% to 4.1 billion and WACC by 158 bps to 15.2% and consequently, (2) lower our TP for the stock by 21% to NGN30.56.
Although we revised our net earnings estimates slightly higher, however, overlaid on the post-rights shares, we now look for 2019E and 2020E EPS of N4.80k (N7.5 ex new shares) and N6.40k (N10 ex new shares) respectively.
FLOURMILL’s share price has accumulated 31% YtD and we revise rating to SELL (HOLD previously) on our new TP.
On our estimates, FLOURMILL is trading on forward (FY18E) P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.1x and 3.7x respectively, at material discounts to the (1) peer average forward P/E of 11.5x and EV/EBITDA of 7.8x and (2) its five-year historical average of 14x and 8.1x respectively.
Notwithstanding the impact of the RI on valuation and EPS, we have a fairly strong view of FLOURMILL over the medium term. From 1% average between 2014-2016 (2017 was an outlier, in our view) and 5% in 2018E, we forecast sales revenue growth to increase to 9% average over 2019-2020E.
Management has continued to reiterate that its emphasis going forward is on driving returns from the investments of the recent years. And it is our view that the group’s focus on food-based and agro-allied products, whilst favoured by Nigeria’s demographic potential and spending patterns, also provides a good hedge against cyclicality effects in the FMCG industry.
We also forecast EBITDA to grow steadily to N81 billion by 2020E, from N57 billion in 2017FY, and the margin to stabilize at 12% average, 300 bps above the rate achieved in the last five years. With a robust top-line, we view the sustenance of the opex margins of 4.5% achieved in 2017FY and 4% as at 9M-18, compared to 8% historical average, as positive for EBITDA formation going forward.
Management said it does not expect opex-to-revenue ratio to change materially to the upside going forward, given its emphasis of growing revenue, while focusing strongly on containing costs.
On the highly leveraged balance sheet, we are not totally convinced that there will be a material reduction in the amount of FLOURMILL’s borrowings (N201 billion as at 9M-18) over the near term.
That said, we also do not expect borrowings will be higher.
On net, it is our view that savings from the refinancing of expensive borrowings will be positive – in the short term especially – for cash and earnings. Over the medium term, it is our view that faster growth in EBITDA over fixed financing costs will be positive for earnings.
We held discussions with management on the recently commissioned Sunti backward integration project in sugar, and also to understand the current market dynamics and outlook.
Sunti and Golden Penny Sugar in general
We understand that the Sunti project, at commissioning, cost the group about N50 billion, funded with N30 billion of subsidized loans from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the balance being own capital. The CBN loan is for twelve years, at 9% average interest rate. The land size is 15,000 hectares, to be utilized solely for planting and refining sugar. Thus far, 3,000 hectares have been developed, but not fully cultivated.
The refinery capacity is currently 100,000 tonnes of sugar per annum. Further expansion of capacity, according to management, is dependent on profitability. Management said it expects to achieve the first farm-to-factory output in the next 2-3 years. The refinery will be fed with own-grown sugarcane at the early stage but will subsequently be supported with supplies from outgrowers. We understand that sales will be largely to industrial consumers.
Management said the 750,000 tonnes per annum sugar refinery in Lagos will be retained and fed with imported raw sugar. It does not consider the movement of raw sugar from the North for refining in Lagos efficient. And it also does not consider the mandatory backward integration policy in the sector sufficient a threat – in the near term at least – to the continuity of the import-to-refinery model.
Capacity utilization on the 750,000 tonnes refinery is currently 45%. We were informed that the sugar business is profitable, accounting for about 15% of both group revenue and net profit. Although DANGSUGAR, the market leader, sets sugar prices, FLOURMILL management said it is able to derive about the same margin on its sugar, on average, as with DANGSUGAR (five-year average of 20% and 25.4% as at 9M-17). We were curious about the potential margin benefits derivable from Sunti, but management’s response, however, did not convince us enough to conclude that there will be material improvement.
Currently, the group’s sugar sales mix is 80% industrial and 20% retail (both cubes and refined 100g bags). Management said the margin on retail sugar sales is about 300 bps more, and that its mix is expected to improve only slightly above 20%.
Only small quantity of sugar is currently exported, and to neighbouring ECOWAS countries. Given the local excess sugar capacity, management sees good opportunity in exports, but – as with DANGSUGAR – we are not convinced that this aspiration will be pursued aggressively.
On Debt
Gross debt as at 9M-18 was N201 billion, from N234 billon at the beginning of the year. As with previous guidance, management said it plans to reduce outstanding debt by 2019 (1) using the proceeds of the N38 billion Rights Issue and (2) via reduction of capex spending, by limiting them to only strategic investments (N20 billion capex guidance provided for 2019E, vs. N10 billion in 9M-18).
We are not convinced that FLOURMILL’s outstanding debt in the next 2-3 years will be materially lower from what it is now. Management said its target is to achieve debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.5x, from c.6x average in the last five years. But this, in our view, can also be achieved by growing EBITDA (as we expect), and not necessarily by cutting down borrowings. Management said it is keen about being adequately capitalized/liquid.
Management confirmed that it has been quite busy in the debt market, refinancing its borrowings at lower interest rates. Gross outstanding debt, we understand, currently consists of about N25 billion of commercial papers (CPs), some of which were recently issued at 15% average interest rate (average rate on CPs was 21% as at 9M-18).
Overall, target is to achieve 15-16% average interest rate on gross short term borrowings by 2019E (from 19.8% average as at 9M-18), should local inflationary condition continue to improve.
Business Segments
Food – Feedback is that this segment remains resilient. Performance is driven by volume and mix, led by flour, semovita, and pasta. Target is to achieve 10% volume growth in 2019E.
Agro-Allied – As a result of losses associated with Sunti start-up costs as well as ROM Oil (edible oil), this segment is expected to close 2018 with negative PBT. However, remedial actions going into 2019 include (1) to reduce capex in Sunti and (2) for edible oil, to control costs and improve both pricing and RTM, with the target to achieve break-even, at minimum.
Also, on agro-allied, we were informed that (1) the export of garri commenced recently, (2) a second aqua feed will be commissioned in Q2-Q3 this year, and (3) the fertilizer business is performing well, notwithstanding the threat of government supplying the product at subsidized prices. Overall, for this segment, target is to achieve 7-10% volume growth in 2019E.
Packaging – Thus far, the performance of this segment is consistent with the trend seen over 9M-18 (150% PBT growth). Management said the revenue growth of 3% achieved in 9M-18 was strictly from third-party sales, guiding that inter-company sales cancel out at the group level. Emphasis remains on controlling costs.
Prices: In the absence of the 2016-type of cost pressure, prices are expected to remain stable. There was a very marginal cut in the prices of sugar and flour late in 2017. On gross margin outlook, management said it is comfortable with the 13% it achieved in 9M-18.
Withheld products – Daily Delight (breakfast cereal) and Kool 2-Go (instant powdered drink) were recently withheld. Management said Daily Delight could not compete in the breakfast cereal market while Kool 2-Go was affected by the naira devaluation. We understand plan is ongoing to reposition and relaunch the breakfast cereal this year.
Power – Gas supply has improved significantly across the various plants (Ibadan, Iganmu, and Calabar), but excluding Apapa, wherein supply (we understand is currently in the 60-70s) is limited by high demand.
Forex – Less than 50% of FX requirement is met via the CBN’s bi-monthly sales, at slightly above N325/USD. All demands can be met at the Investors and Exporters window. Management’s view of the FX market is positive in the short term, suggesting losses linked to the outstanding USD borrowings (USD20 million) and trade payables are unlikely.
Christian Orajekwe is analysts at CORDROS CAPITAL and can be reached via [email protected].
Economy
Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Add More Products to Export Basket
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, has urged the country to broaden its export basket beyond raw materials by embracing ideas, innovation and the production of more value-added and complex products
Mr Adedeji said this during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, on Thursday.
The NRS chairman, in the lecture entitled From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy, revealed that Nigeria experienced stagnation in its export drive over three decades, from 1998 to 2023, and added only six new products to its export basket during that period.
He stressed the need to rethink growth through the lens of complexity by not just producing more of the same stuff, lamenting that Nigeria possesses a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, as well as lacking “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” he said in a statement by his special adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi.
Mr Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the world by comparative studies of success and failure, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil.
“We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.
“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.
“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities,” he stated, adding that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.
“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products,” the taxman stated.
He added that President Bola Tinubu has already begun the difficult work of rebuilding the economy, building collective knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.
Economy
Nigeria Inaugurates Strategy to Tap into $7.7trn Global Halal Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Thursday inaugurated Nigeria’s National Halal Economy Strategy to tap into the $7.7 trillion global halal market and diversify its economy.
President Tinubu, while inaugurating the strategy, called for disciplined, inclusive, and measurable action for the strategy to deliver jobs and shared prosperity across the country.
Represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, he described the unveiling of the strategy as a signal of Nigeria’s readiness to join the world in grabbing a huge chunk of the global halal economy already embraced by leading nations.
“As well as to clearly define the nation’s direction within the market, is expected to add an estimated $1.5 billion to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. It is with this sense of responsibility that I formally unveil the Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy.
“This document is a declaration of our promise to meet global standards with Nigerian capacity and to convert opportunity into lasting economic value. What follows must be action that is disciplined, inclusive, and measurable, so that this Strategy delivers jobs, exports, and shared prosperity across our nation.
“It is going to be chaired by the supremely competent Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.”
The president explained that the halal-compliant food exports, developing pharmaceutical and cosmetic value chains would position Nigeria as a halal-friendly tourism destination, and mobilising ethical finance at scale,” by 2030.
“The cumulative efforts “are projected to unlock over twelve billion dollars in economic value.
“While strengthening food security, deepening industrial capacity, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium-sized enterprises across our states,” he added.
Allaying concerns by those linking the halal with religious affiliation, President Tinubu pointed out that the global halal economy had since outgrown parochial interpretations.
“It is no longer defined solely by faith, but by trust, through systems that emphasise quality, traceability, safety, and ethical production. These principles resonate far beyond any single community.
“They speak to consumers, investors, and trading partners who increasingly demand certainty in how goods are produced, financed, and delivered. It is within this broader understanding that Nigeria now positions itself.”
Tinubu said many advanced Western economies had since “recognised the commercial and ethical appeal of the halal economy and have integrated it into their export and quality-assurance systems.”
President Tinubu listed developed countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
“They are currently among the “leading producers, certifiers, and exporters of halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and financial products.”
He stated that what these developed nations had experienced is a confirmation of a simple truth, that “the halal economy is a global market framework rooted in standards, safety, and consumer trust, not geography or belief.”
The president explained that the Nigeria national halal economy strategy is the result of careful study and sober reflection.
He added that it was inspired by the commitment of his administration of “to diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment, and create sustainable jobs across the federation.
“It is also the product of deliberate partnership, developed with the Halal Products Development Company, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund.
“And Dar Al Halal Group Nigeria, with technical backing from institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa.”
The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said the inauguration of the strategy was a public-private collaboration that has involved extensive interaction with stakeholders.
Mrs Oduwole, who is the Chairperson, National Halal Strategy Committee, said that the private sector led the charge in ensuring that it is a whole-of-government and whole-of-country intervention.
The minister stressed that what the Halal strategy had done for Nigeria “is to position us among countries that export Halal-certified goods across the world.
The minister said, “We are going to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to ensure that we export our Halal-friendly goods to the rest of Africa and beyond to any willing markets; participation is voluntary. “
She assured that as the Chairperson, her ministry would deliver on the objectives of the strategy for the prosperity of the nation.
The Chairman of Dar Al-Halal Group Nigeria L.td, Mr Muhammadu Dikko-Ladan, explained that the Halal Product Development Company collaborated with the group in developing the strategy.
“In addition to the strategy, an export programme is underway involving the Ministry of Trade and Investment, through which Nigerian companies can be onboarded into the Saudi Arabian market and beyond.£
Mr Dikko-Ladan described the Strategy as a landmark opportunity for Nigeria, as it creates market access and attracts foreign direct investment.
Economy
UK, Canada, Others Back New Cashew Nut Processing Plant Construction in Ogun
By Adedapo Adesanya
GuarantCo, part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), has provided a 100 per cent guarantee to support a $75 million debt facility for Robust International Pte Ltd (Robust) to construct a new cashew nut processing plant in Ogun State, Nigeria.
GuarantCo, under the PIDG is funded by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden and Canada, mobilises private sector local currency investment for infrastructure projects and supports the development of financial markets in lower-income countries across Africa and Asia.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest cashew producers of 300,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts annually, yet currently less than 10 per cent are processed domestically. Most raw nuts are exported unprocessed to Asian and other countries, forfeiting up to 80 per cent of their potential export value and adding exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations.
According to GuarantCo, this additional plant will more than double Robust’s existing cashew processing capacity from 100 metric tonnes per day to 220 metric tonnes per day to help reduce this structural gap.
The new plant will be of extensive benefit to the local economy, with the procurement of cashew nuts from around 10,000 primarily low-income smallholder farmers.
There is an expected increase in export revenue of up to $335 million and procurement from the local supply chain over the lifetime of the guarantee.
Furthermore, the new plant will incorporate functionality to convert waste by-products into value-added biomass and biofuel inputs to enhance the environmental impact of the transaction.
It is anticipated that up to 900 jobs will be created, with as many as 78 per cent to be held by women. Robust also has a target to gradually increase the share of procurement from women farmers, from 15 per cent to 25 per cent by 2028, as it reaches new regions in Nigeria and extends its ongoing gender-responsive outreach programme for farmers.
Terms of the deal showed that the debt facility was provided by a Symbiotics-arranged bond platform, which in turn issued notes with the benefit of the GuarantCo guarantee. These notes have been subscribed to in full by M&G Investments. The transaction was executed in record time due to the successful replication of two recent transactions in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, again in collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics.
Speaking on the development, the British Deputy High Commissioner, Mr Jonny Baxter, said: “The UK is proud to support innovative financing that mobilises private capital into Nigeria’s productive economy through UK-backed institutions such as PIDG. By backing investment into local processing and value addition, this transaction supports jobs, exports and more resilient agricultural supply chains. Complementing this, through the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnerships and the Developing Countries Trading Scheme, the UK is supporting Nigerian businesses to scale exports to the UK and beyond, demonstrating how UK-backed partnerships help firms grow and compete internationally.”
Mr Dave Chalila, Head of Africa and Middle East Investments at GuarantCo, said: “This transaction marks GuarantCo’s third collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics, emphasising our efforts to bring replicability to everything we do so that we accelerate socio-economic development where it matters most. The transaction is consistent with PIDG’s mandate to mobilise private capital into high-impact, underfinanced sectors. In this case, crowding in institutional investors in the African agri-processing value chain.
“As with the two recent similarly structured transactions, funding is channelled through the Symbiotics institutional investor platform, with the notes externally rated by Fitch and benefiting from a rating uplift due to the GuarantCo guarantee.”
Adding his input, Mr Vishanth Narayan, Group Executive Director at Robust International Group, said: “As a global leader in agricultural commodities, Robust International remains steadfast in its commitment to building resilient, ethical and value-adding supply chains across origin and destination markets. This transaction represents an important step in advancing our long-term strategy of strengthening processing capabilities, deepening engagement with farmers and enhancing local value addition in the regions where we operate. Through sustained investment, disciplined execution and decades of operating experience, we continue to focus on delivering reliable, high-quality products while fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth.”
For Ms María Redondo, director at M&G Investments, “The guarantee gives us the assurance to invest in hard currency, emerging market debt, while supporting Robust’s new cashew processing plant in Nigeria. It’s a clear example of how smart credit enhancement can unlock institutional capital for high-impact development and manage currency and credit risks effectively. This is another strong step in channelling institutional capital into meaningful, on‑the‑ground growth.”
Also, Ms Valeria Berzunza, Structuring & Arranging at Symbiotics, said: “We are pleased to continue our collaboration with M&G Investments, GuarantCo, and now with Robust through a transaction with a strong social and gender focus, demonstrating that well-structured products can boost commercially attractive, viable, and impactful investments.”
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