By Adedapo Adesanya

The owner of the $20 billion Dangote Refinery, Mr Aliko ​Dangote, said on Monday that the facility has increased exports of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, and urea to African countries hit by supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

Speaking during a tour of the refinery on the edge of commercial capital Lagos, Mr Dangote said the refinery, which is operating at ​its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, had helped ⁠cushion the full impact of the crisis both in Nigeria and across ​the continent.

“What I can do is assure Nigerians … and most of West Africa, ​Central Africa, and East Africa, we have the capacity to supply them,” he said, as per Reuters.

The businessman further said the ​facility had shipped some 17 cargoes of gasoline to other African nations, ​and exports of urea fertiliser had also recently risen, as buyers sought alternative sources of ‌supply.

“In ⁠the last couple of days, we’ve been looking to mostly African countries, which we were not doing before,” he said, referring to the fertiliser shipments, without giving figures.

The refinery has the capacity to produce up to 3 million metric ​tons of urea ​annually, most of ⁠which is typically exported to the United States and South America, officials say.

Mr Dangote said the refinery hoped to get more crude cargoes to help curb rising fuel costs under the Crude-for-Naira initiative of the Nigerian government.

Last week, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited allocated seven May cargoes for the refinery, ​up from five in previous months.

The majority of Nigeria’s crude production is tied to Joint Venture (JV) contracts, which constrain the optimal supply of crude oil to the Dangote Refinery. This increase in crude allocations to the 650,000 barrel per day refinery could curb volumes of Nigerian crude available for export at a time when ​the Iran war has drastically cut supply from the Middle East.

The company is still purchasing crude at international benchmark prices from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected relative stability for the Naira exchange rate in the second quarter of the year, supported by improved foreign reserves and liquidity, but cautioned that volatility risks remain.

In its Q1 2026 Economic Review and Q2 Outlook: Macro Stability Gains Amid Persistent Cost Pressures and Rising Geopolitical Risks report released on Sunday, the think-tank’s chief executive, Mr Muda Yusuf, said exchange rate conditions also improved significantly as the Naira, which experienced substantial volatility during the reform transition period, stabilised within a relatively narrow band of about N1,340–N1,430 per Dollar in the official market during Q1 2026.

“This stability has helped to moderate imported inflation and restore a measure of business confidence. External reserves strengthened considerably, rising above $50 billion in early 2026,” he stated.

The group said that the Nigerian economy in the first quarter of 2026 reflected a blend of improving macroeconomic stability and persistent structural constraints.

It said that proof of a more stable macroeconomic environment is increasingly evident, underpinned by the cumulative gains from foreign exchange reforms, a sustained period of monetary tightening, and the gradual normalisation of key economic indicators.

However, it noted that these improvements continue to coexist with significant headwinds, adding that the country’s economic growth will remain positive in the next three months, but the pace of expansion may slow due to mounting downside risk

The report also warned of a growing risk of stagflation, as persistent cost pressures combine with fragile growth conditions. It added that rising political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections could weaken reform momentum and distract from economic management.

The CPPE noted that rising global crude oil prices, triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict, pose a major threat to Nigeria’s fragile disinflation process. While higher oil prices could boost export earnings and government revenue, the think tank stressed that the domestic impact would be adverse.

“The cost pass-through effect poses a significant threat to the fragile disinflation process, potentially reversing recent gains in price stability, weakening real incomes, and further exacerbating the cost-of-living pressures facing households and businesses,” the organisation said.

Highlighting monetary policy concerns, CPPE said the current inflationary trend is largely driven by structural and cost-related factors rather than excess demand, observing that, “Additional monetary tightening would have limited effectiveness in addressing the underlying drivers of inflation, while potentially exacerbating constraints on investment, credit expansion, and overall economic growth.”

The CPPE further raised concerns over the implementation of the proposed N68 trillion 2026 budget, citing weak revenue performance, delays in capital releases, and growing political influence on spending priorities.

“As political pressures intensify, there is a risk of weakening fiscal discipline, with greater emphasis on recurrent and politically expedient spending,” the group stated, advising businesses to shift focus towards resilience and efficiency, urging firms to prioritise cost containment, adopt alternative energy sources, and strengthen foreign exchange risk management strategies.

It also called on policymakers to take urgent steps to safeguard economic stability and protect vulnerable groups.

“Policy priorities should therefore focus on consolidating macroeconomic stability, addressing structural bottlenecks, and implementing targeted measures to protect vulnerable populations,” it noted.

The CPPE concluded that while macroeconomic stability gains recorded in the first quarter of 2026 are notable, the outlook for the second quarter remains cautiously positive but increasingly uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, fiscal risks, and domestic political dynamics.

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May.

Eight members of ​OPEC+, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to the increase in May quota at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

However, the rise will be in theory, as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has affected production.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route, since the end of February and cut ​exports from some OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. These are the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise ​production even before the conflict began.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others, ​such as Russia, are unable to increase output due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. For Nigeria, even as Africa’s largest producer, it has not been able to keep production quotas steady.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 barrels per day ​represents less than 2 per cent of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Also meeting on Sunday, a separate OPEC+ panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply.

May’s OPEC+ increase is the ​same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last meeting held on March 1, just as the ​war began to disrupt ⁠oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million barrels per day or up to 15 per cent of global supply.

The eight OPEC+ members have raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to ​March 2026. The sub-group holds its next meeting on May 3.

Market analysts have warned that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the closure of the strait is prolonged and continues, due to damage to energy assets across the critical Middle East region.

As of the time of this report, Brent crude is trading at $108 per barrel, below the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $109 per barrel.