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Economy

Supply Concerns, Fuel Switching Boost Crude Oil Prices

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices edged up by about one per cent on Wednesday on expectations that the winter season in the Northern hemisphere will see an increase in gas-to-oil switching due to high prices.

Brent crude futures settled higher by 93 cents or 1 per cent at $94.10 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended $1.17 or 1.3 per cent higher at $88.48 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects widespread switching from gas to oil for heating purposes.

The agency said the deepening economic slowdown and a faltering Chinese economy will cause global oil demand to grind to a halt in the fourth quarter of the year.

Global oil demand is set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, the IEA said on Wednesday, revising its growth down by an estimate of 110,000 barrels per day from last month as it expects China’s oil demand to fall for the first time in more than three decades.

The slowdown in China will be partly offset by “large-scale switching from gas to oil,” which is estimated to average 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, double the level from a year ago, according to the IEA.

Oil demand in China is expected to fall by 2.7 per cent, or by 420,000 barrels per day, this year compared to last year, per IEA estimates. If the estimates are correct, this could be the first yearly decline in Chinese oil demand since 1990 and only the second such drop in IEA records since 1984.

The IEA’s new estimate is now in line with several analyst forecasts that anticipate sudden COVID-19 lockdowns will weigh on China’s oil demand this year as people avoid mass travel around holidays, dragging fuel consumption in the world’s top crude importer down for 2022 for the first time in two decades.

Elsewhere in the IEA report, figures show still very resilient Russian oil exports. Russian total oil exports actually rose by 220,000 barrels per day in August to 7.6 million barrels per day, which is down by just 390,000 barrels per day from pre-war levels. Estimated export revenues for Russia fell by $1.2 billion from July to $17.7 billion in August.

However, the EU embargo on Russian crude oil and product imports that comes into effect in December 2022 and February 2023, respectively, is expected to result in deeper declines as an additional 1 million barrels per day of products and 1.4 million barrels per day of crude will have to find new homes, the IEA said.

In the US, however, crude inventories rose last week for a second week in a row, once again boosted by the ongoing releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the latest government data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Crude stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels as 8.4 million barrels were released from the SPR, part of a programme scheduled to end next month.

On its part, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said global oil demand in 2022 and 2023 will come in stronger than expected, citing signs that major economies are faring better than expected despite challenges such as surging inflation.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

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NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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