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Economy

Supply Concerns, Fuel Switching Boost Crude Oil Prices

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices edged up by about one per cent on Wednesday on expectations that the winter season in the Northern hemisphere will see an increase in gas-to-oil switching due to high prices.

Brent crude futures settled higher by 93 cents or 1 per cent at $94.10 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended $1.17 or 1.3 per cent higher at $88.48 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects widespread switching from gas to oil for heating purposes.

The agency said the deepening economic slowdown and a faltering Chinese economy will cause global oil demand to grind to a halt in the fourth quarter of the year.

Global oil demand is set to grow by 2 million barrels per day this year, the IEA said on Wednesday, revising its growth down by an estimate of 110,000 barrels per day from last month as it expects China’s oil demand to fall for the first time in more than three decades.

The slowdown in China will be partly offset by “large-scale switching from gas to oil,” which is estimated to average 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, double the level from a year ago, according to the IEA.

Oil demand in China is expected to fall by 2.7 per cent, or by 420,000 barrels per day, this year compared to last year, per IEA estimates. If the estimates are correct, this could be the first yearly decline in Chinese oil demand since 1990 and only the second such drop in IEA records since 1984.

The IEA’s new estimate is now in line with several analyst forecasts that anticipate sudden COVID-19 lockdowns will weigh on China’s oil demand this year as people avoid mass travel around holidays, dragging fuel consumption in the world’s top crude importer down for 2022 for the first time in two decades.

Elsewhere in the IEA report, figures show still very resilient Russian oil exports. Russian total oil exports actually rose by 220,000 barrels per day in August to 7.6 million barrels per day, which is down by just 390,000 barrels per day from pre-war levels. Estimated export revenues for Russia fell by $1.2 billion from July to $17.7 billion in August.

However, the EU embargo on Russian crude oil and product imports that comes into effect in December 2022 and February 2023, respectively, is expected to result in deeper declines as an additional 1 million barrels per day of products and 1.4 million barrels per day of crude will have to find new homes, the IEA said.

In the US, however, crude inventories rose last week for a second week in a row, once again boosted by the ongoing releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the latest government data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Crude stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels as 8.4 million barrels were released from the SPR, part of a programme scheduled to end next month.

On its part, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said global oil demand in 2022 and 2023 will come in stronger than expected, citing signs that major economies are faring better than expected despite challenges such as surging inflation.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes

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UK Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.

Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.

Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”

The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.

Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.

“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”

On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.

“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”

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Economy

MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth

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MTN Nigeria SMEDAN

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).

The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.

With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.

At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.

The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.

“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.

Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.

“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.

Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.

“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.

“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.

Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.

He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.

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Economy

NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax

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capital gains tax

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.

Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.

Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.

The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”

According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”

“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”

Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.

He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.

Mr Oyedele  also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.

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