Economy
Supply Disruptions in Nigeria Contributing to Oil Market Imbalance—IEA
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria continues to face supply disruptions, limiting the ability of the country to reach its production target which is contributing to an imbalance between oil supply and demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Speaking at a recent media chat, the agency’s chief, Mr Fatih Birol, said the disruptions faced by Africa’s largest crude producer and others were contributing to the oil market imbalance.
This is happening as global oil demand has proven to be more resilient to the effects of the Omicron variant’s spread than expected.
“Demand dynamics are stronger than many of the market observers had thought, mainly due to the milder Omicron expectations.
“We see some of the key producers including Nigeria, Libya and also Ecuador that have serious supply disruptions,” Mr Birol said.
In Nigeria, production continues to be affected by technical and operational problems.
The head of the IEA also noted the supply disruptions in Kazakhstan following protests last week over the removal of fuel price caps also contributed to the imbalance with demand.
Ecuador has reduced oil production because of repairs on two key pipelines necessitated by advancing land erosion, but there are expectations on that end that output rates will return to normal next month.
On Libya’s end, Libya’s oil production is rising gradually with output at 963,000 barrels per day after a blockade of its western fields ended and ports in the east re-opened, according to the country’s energy minister, Mr Mohammed Oun said on Thursday.
Most other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have also found it hard to boost production in line with quotas.
The IEA forecast that global fuel consumption will decline considerably during this quarter because of pandemic-related restrictions, but it seems that the actual restrictions are not having such a grave effect on it.
At the same time, the IEA acknowledged in its December report that, unlike jet fuel demand, the demand for road transport fuels will remain strong even amid the latest surge in infections, also noting that it expected the effect of Omicron on oil demand to be more muted than previous strains.
The IEA forecast global oil demand to have grown by 5.4 million barrels per day in 2021, which is seen slowing down to 3.3 million barrels per day this year, with the total returning to pre-pandemic levels of 99.5 million barrels per day.
The next edition of the IEA’s Oil Market Report is scheduled for next Wednesday and may well contain some revisions in projections.
Economy
Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.
The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.
The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.
On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.
OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.
Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.
In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.
In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.
These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.
Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.
They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.
Economy
Aradel Holdings Acquires Equity Stake in Chappal Energies
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.
This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).
Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.
Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.
As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).
The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.
In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.
The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.
“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.
“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.
“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.
“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.
Economy
Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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