Economy
Survey Shows Stanbic IBTC’s PMI Rose 5-month High in December
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Stanbic IBTC’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has indicated that the index attained a five-month high, which was a reflection of an improvement in the macro-economy.
This emerged after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that its Manufacturing PMI stood at 52 index points in December 2016, also indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector during the review period.
The central bank’s PMI index had recorded decline in the preceding eleven months.
Continuing, Stanbic IBTC explained that the headline figure was derived from its Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMITM).
Readings above 50.0 signalled an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.
At 48.1 in December, up from November’s 47.7, the headline figure rose to a five-month high but remained below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark. It therefore signalled a further contraction of Nigeria’s private sector. Moreover, the latest figure lengthened the current downturn to eight successive months.
Commenting on December’s survey findings, Ayomide Mejabi, an Economist at Stanbic IBTC Bank said, “The rate of contraction in Nigeria’s private sector slowed in December as a result of weaker declines in output and new export orders as well as a slower increase in output prices.
“The headline PMI rose to its best level in the last five months, perhaps indicating that underlying macro-economic bottlenecks are being resolved. Having said that, most other facets of activity continue to deteriorate as new business orders returned to contraction territory.
“In addition, after recording marginal growth in October, employment extended its recent decline from November into December. The price PMI sub-indices on the other hand show that underlying inflationary pressures may be subsiding, as while output prices continue to increase, they are doing so at a slower pace compared to earlier in the year.
“In summary, it is perhaps still too early to ascertain if a turnaround in Nigeria’s economic challenges is imminent as anecdotal evidence still suggests that many of the productive sectors continue to struggle with foreign exchange needed to boost domestic investment and consequently, growth.”
Furthermore, it stated that the main findings of the December survey were the weakening of Nigeria’s private sector stemmed from a slower decline in output, with panel members citing weaker underlying demand. Furthermore, business activity has decreased in every month since February.
The latest survey data signalled a return to contraction territory for new business following a marginal increase in November. The fall was broad-based, as new export orders also lowered. Inflationary pressures weighed on consumer demand, according to several survey respondents. Meanwhile, firms continued to work through their outstanding business levels in December. Although the rate of deterioration eased to the slowest in four months, it remained strong in comparison to the three-year series average.
Job cuts in Nigeria’s private sector were evident for the second month in a row. In fact, the rate of job shedding was the fastest in the series history, despite being relatively moderate. Nigerian businesses raised output prices again in December. The rate of inflation was marked despite slowing since the previous month.
Moreover, output charges rose at a stronger pace than input prices. Nigerian private sector firms commented on exchange rate depreciation, rising delivery costs and higher foods prices as the main factors driving inflation.
For the fifth time in as many months, input buying in the private sector of Nigeria decreased. The rate of decline was little-changed from November, with firms linking the fall to a lack of working capital. That said, pre-production inventories accumulated at a fractional rate in December.
Finally, suppliers’ lead times shortened in Nigeria’s private sector during the month. However, the rate at which vendor performance improved was only slight.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, approved recently by President Bola Tinubu, has been described as a landmark reform that significantly enhances Nigeria’s competitiveness for deep offshore investment and strengthens the nation’s pathway towards achieving its 3 million barrels of oil per day (MMbopd) production ambition by 2030.
The chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, in a statement signed by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr Andy Odeh, said the development is one of the most significant policy interventions for the upstream sector in recent years.
He thanked Mr Tinubu for his relentless leadership and unwavering commitment to creating an enabling environment for investment and sustainable growth in Nigeria’s energy sector through several Presidential Executive Orders which have strengthened the nation’s oil and gas sector.
“This is a transformative reform that sends a strong signal to global investors that Nigeria is committed to providing a stable, competitive and investment-friendly environment for deep offshore development. Fiscal certainty is a critical driver of investment decisions, and this framework provides the additional clarity the industry has long sought,” he said.
“For NNPC, the order aligns directly with our strategy of protecting our existing production base, accelerating near-term growth, and attracting new investment into high-value assets. It strengthens our confidence in achieving our strategic production ambition of 3 MMbopd while creating greater value for our shareholders and the Nigerian economy,” the NNPC chief added.
Mr Ojulari noted that recent reforms across the petroleum sector have already stimulated more than $34 billion in new investment commitments, stating that the Deep Offshore Incentives Order is expected to build on that momentum by enabling timely FIDs on strategic offshore developments.
The new order establishes a transparent, predictable and globally competitive fiscal framework for qualifying greenfield deep offshore developments. It provides the certainty required to unlock long-term capital, accelerate Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), and maximise value from Nigeria’s offshore resources.
The framework, which reinforces Nigeria’s position as one of the world’s attractive destinations for deep offshore oil and gas development, is expected to unlock over $50 billion in new investments, including major projects starting with Bonga South-West, which was approved in March 2026, and the Zabazaba and Owowo Deep Offshore projects. Bonga South West is expected to be the first FID on a Nigeria deepwater Production Sharing Contract asset since 2008.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The board of Geregu Power Plc has acknowledged the concerns raised by shareholders, stakeholders, as well as regulators over the inability of the company to pay bondholders for their investment in its N40 billion bond sale.
There were reports that the power-generating organisation defaulted in repaying investors who bought its debt instrument.
In 2022, the company issued a seven-year paper to investors at a coupon of 14.5 per cent to be paid semi-annually. The note is expected to mature in July 2029. But data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that there have been defaults in the 8th coupon payment and the 4th bullet principal repayment.
Reacting to the issue on Thursday, Geregu said it is actively having talks with advisers and others on ways to iron things out.
“Geregu remains actively engaged with relevant stakeholders and advisers regarding the resolution of the various challenges and is committed to achieving an orderly and mutually beneficial outcome.
“Discussions and engagements are ongoing, and the Company will continue to act in good faith in fulfilling its responsibilities,” part of the statement signed by its scribe, The Structure HQ, stated.
The firm explained that since assuming responsibility for its affairs, the current board and management have undertaken a comprehensive review and reconciliation of its transactions, liabilities, operational commitments, financing arrangements, financial obligations and related corporate documentation.
It stressed that this action was to ensure transparency, accuracy and prudent financial management, adding that it remains committed to transparency, responsible corporate governance and constructive engagement with all stakeholders.
The majority stake of Geregu Power was controlled by Mr Femi Otedola. He divested his stake in the energy firm in 2025, with the sale of 95 per cent of his shares in Amperion to MA”AM Energy.
Earlier in 2023, he sold N399 million shares of Geregu to another investor. Before then, he sold his stake in Forte Oil to invest in Geregu Power, which now has the former Governor of Zamfara State, Mr Abdulaziz Yari, as its chairman.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A former Commissioner for Insurance of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), Mr Mohamed Kari, has warned the federal government to reduce its intervention in the sector’s post-recapitalisation process.
He charged the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, to ignore calls for regulatory concessions in the just-concluded insurance industry recapitalisation exercise in the country.
The call, he said, was critical, especially when the companies clamouring for such concessions were chronic defaulters whose failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy.
Recall that NAICOM had requested insurance companies, as part of the recapitalisation process, to transfer their entire recapitalisation funds into an escrow account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). However, NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, in a recent petition, had petitioned NAICOM over what they described as unlawful fees and regulatory demands arising from the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.
Mr Kari, who was also a former chief executive of NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, said it was globally accepted that a government may occasionally intervene to rescue or support a consequential player in the financial sector, strictly where its distress poses a genuine ‘too big to fail’ systemic risk whose collapse would trigger a wider economic catastrophe.
“However, one must examine the reality of the two institutions in question today. These are no longer the market giants they once were decades ago,” he said.
He warned that having suffered years of steep decline, loss of market share, and severe operational shrinkage, their current market footprint is virtually insignificant.
“Their failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy. Why then should government intervene to shield operators whose distress carries no systemic consequence whatsoever?
“Rescuing or granting regulatory concessions to insignificant, chronic defaulters cannot be justified under any sound macroeconomic policy,” he added.
“When political intervention steps in to shield such non-systemic entities from standard regulatory checks, the equilibrium of the market breaks down as it creates unfair advantage.
“Operators that meet compliance targets carry the full cost of regulatory fidelity, while non-compliant firms that secure political exemptions operate with an artificial cost advantage.
“It disincentivises real capacity building: When political lobbying becomes an alternative to recapitalisation, companies are discouraged from making the hard structural choices necessary to refine their balance sheets and operations.”
He noted that if such a concession is granted to both insurance industry players in the defunct, it “distorts investor confidence: Both domestic and international investors look for predictable, transparent environments. A playing field where rules can be bent for select players frightens away patient capital. It weakens policyholder protection.”
