Economy
Tinubu Approves New Incentives for Shell’s $5bn Bonga South West project
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has approved targeted incentives to unlock Shell’s long-delayed $5 billion Bonga South-West deep-offshore oil project.
The approval came while receiving a Shell delegation led by its Global Chief Executive Officer, Mr Wael Sawan, at the State House, Abuja, on Thursday.
According to the President’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Mr Sunday Dare, the approved incentives are “disciplined, targeted, and globally competitive,” designed to attract new capital without undermining government revenues.
“These incentives are not blanket concessions. They are ring-fenced and investment-linked, focused on new capital and incremental production, strong local content delivery, and in-country value addition. My expectation is clear: Bonga Southwest must reach a Final Investment Decision within the first term of this administration.”
The Bonga Southwest project, located approximately 120 kilometres offshore Nigeria in water depths exceeding 1,000 metres, has been stalled for over a decade due to fiscal disagreements between the federal government and Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company and its joint venture partners.
The project, estimated to cost over $5 billion, is expected to produce about 150,000 barrels of oil per day at peak capacity and holds significant potential for gas production, experts say.
Previous administrations struggled to reach an agreement with Shell on the fiscal terms for the project, with the oil giant seeking incentives to make the capital-intensive deep-water development commercially viable amid declining global oil prices and Nigeria’s challenging investment climate.
Mr Tinubu directed his Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, to facilitate the gazetting of the incentives in line with Nigeria’s existing legal and fiscal frameworks, including the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.
The President emphasised the strategic importance of the project to Nigeria’s economy, noting its potential to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs, generate significant foreign exchange inflows, and deliver sustained government revenues over its lifespan.
He added that the project would deepen Nigerian participation in offshore engineering, fabrication, logistics, and energy services. Tinubu reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to policy stability, regulatory certainty, and speed, noting that these reforms are critical to restoring investor confidence and positioning Nigeria as a preferred destination for large-scale energy investment.
He revealed that Shell and its partners have invested nearly $7bn in Nigeria in the past 13 months, particularly in the Bonga North and HI projects, describing this as evidence that the country’s economic and energy-sector reforms are yielding results.
Responding, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said Nigeria’s investment climate has improved remarkably under the Tinubu administration, adding that the company is increasingly confident in Nigeria as a destination for long-term investment.
The Bonga field, operated by Shell, commenced production in 2005 and was Nigeria’s first deep-water development.
Economy
FG Targets Low-Carbon Growth in Blue Economy
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to climate-responsive and sustainable practices as core pillars for developing Nigeria’s marine and blue economy.
This is contained in a press statement on Tuesday by Mrs Anastasia Ogbonna, Director, Information and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy.
According to the statement, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy (FMMBE), Mrs Fatima Mahmood, made this known while receiving a delegation from Invest International, a Dutch state-owned development finance institution under the Netherlands Ministry of Finance, led by Ms Fenna Zoe Howkamp.
Mrs Mahmood disclosed that the Ministry was actively mainstreaming climate considerations into its policies and programmes, with a sharp focus on reducing carbon footprints, conserving marine ecosystems, and promoting environmentally responsible resource utilisation.
She noted that global attention is increasingly shifting to the sustainable exploration of marine resources, including emerging areas such as marine mining.
According to her, Nigeria is aligning with international best practices to ensure such activities proceed without adverse environmental impact, while safeguarding critical ecosystems such as coral reefs.
She further identified the fisheries subsector as a priority, stressing its critical role in boosting food and nutrition security and creating jobs. While acknowledging Nigeria’s vast marine and freshwater resources, she pointed to significant opportunities for investment and growth within the subsector.
The Permanent Secretary reiterated the Ministry’s openness to strategic partnerships, particularly in port services and marine infrastructure, to unlock the long-term investment required for sustainable development.
She assured the delegation of Nigeria’s readiness to collaborate with international partners to drive innovation, investment, and sustainability in the blue economy.
In her remarks, the Head of Public Finance for Invest International (Southern Africa Region, including Nigeria), Ms Fenna Howkamp, reaffirmed the Netherlands’ commitment to deepening collaboration with the Ministry.
She highlighted the organisation’s expertise in marine and water management and presented specific project proposals, including a coastal protection initiative with an accompanying feasibility study, and nature-based solutions for drainage and water supply systems.
Ms Howkamp underscored the shared interest in developing resilient public infrastructure within the blue economy and expressed readiness to align proposed initiatives with the Ministry’s priority areas.
She also outlined Invest International’s financing options, which include up to 35% funding support for public infrastructure projects valued between €100 million and €150 million.
According to her, such financing could be structured through co-financing arrangements with institutions like the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, or through direct lending to the Ministry.
She called for sustained engagement to formalise feasibility studies and identify partners to advance coastal protection and other blue economy initiatives that promote sustainable, nature-based solutions for Nigeria’s coastal communities.
Economy
IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.1%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent due to the ripple effect of the Middle East war.
The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist, Mr Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Mr Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers,” he added.
He added that the global lender is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Ms Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertiliser prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Ms Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
The IMF also projects that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by high oil and fertiliser prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising costs.
For Nigeria, she said, a tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank.”
The IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by 16 per cent to 20 per cent in 2025, removing a key buffer just as commodity and shipping costs spike.
It said assuming that the ongoing conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and an increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.
The Bretton Woods institution said global inflation is expected to tick up in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027. Pressures are concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. Risks are decisively on the downside.
Economy
El-Rufai Gets Bail in Ongoing ICPC Corruption Proceedings
By Adedapo Adesanya
Former Kaduna Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai has been granted bail in the ongoing corruption case filed by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).
However, Mr El-Rufai will remain in ICPC custody until he fulfils all the bail conditions set by the court.
The development was confirmed by his son, Mr Bello El-Rufai, shortly after the ruling.
This comes amid separate proceedings at the Kaduna State High Court, where the ICPC recently amended its charges against the former governor. Mr El-Rufai has pleaded not guilty to the allegations.
The chieftain of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) was arraigned by the ICPC over charges related to alleged corruption and abuse of office during his tenure in the North-Western state from 2015 to 2023. Allegations ranging from abuse of office and fraud to intent to commit fraud and conferring undue advantage were levied against the politician.
The commission disclosed that both charges were instituted on March 18, 2026, as part of its ongoing efforts to enforce accountability and combat corruption.
The scrutiny of Mr El-Rufai by the ICPC follows the report of the Kaduna State House of Assembly’s ad hoc committee constituted in 2024 to investigate finances, loans and contracts awarded between 2015 and 2023 under his eight-year administration of the state.
Presenting the committee’s report during plenary last year, the committee chairman, Mr Henry Zacharia, alleged that most of the loans obtained by the El-Rufai administration within the eight years were not utilised for the purposes for which they were secured.
While receiving the report, the Speaker of the House, Mr Yusuf Dahiru Leman, alleged that about N423 billion was siphoned under the El-Rufai administration, leaving Kaduna State with heavy financial liabilities and a rising debt profile.
The committee recommended the investigation and prosecution of the former governor and several members of his cabinet over alleged abuse of office, award of contracts without due process, diversion of public funds, money laundering and reckless borrowing.
The Assembly subsequently endorsed a petition to the EFCC and the ICPC, urging them to take up the matter.
The embattled former FCT Minister is equally embroiled in a case with the federal government over alleged unlawful interception of the phone communications of the National Security Adviser, Mr Nuhu Ribadu.
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