Economy
Trade Deal Pessimism Weigh on US Stocks
By Investors Hub
The major U.S. index futures have erased an earlier advance and are currently pointing to a roughly flat opening on Monday following last week?s climb to record highs.
The pullback by the futures came after a tweet from CNBC?s Beijing Bureau Chief Eunice Yoon suggested Chinese officials have grown pessimistic about the chances for a trade deal.
?Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.)? Yoon tweeted.
She added, ?Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support.?
The futures had previously benefited from a weekend report from Chinese state media indicating the U.S. and China had ?constructive discussions? regarding a phase one trade deal in a high-level phone call.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reportedly talked with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He about the core issues for an agreement.
Traders have recently put tremendous faith in reports and comments about the trade talks, highlighting the importance of a trade deal to the global economic outlook.
Optimism a trade agreement will eventually be reached has helped propel stocks to record highs, although it remains to be seen if a deal will be finalized and actually benefit U.S. producers.
Following the lackluster performance seen over the past several sessions, stocks showed a strong move to the upside during trading on Friday. With the upward move on the day, the major averages all reached new record highs.
The major averages saw continued strength going into the close, ending the session at their best levels of the day. The Dow jumped 222.93 points or 0.8 percent to 28,004.89, the Nasdaq climbed 61.81 points or 0.7 percent to 8,540.83 and the S&P 500 advanced 23.83 points or 0.8 percent to 3,120.46.
For the week, the Dow surged up by 1.2 percent, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed by 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.
The strength on Wall Street came amid renewed optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal following comments from White House officials.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Thursday that U.S. and Chinese negotiators are in contact every single day and are “getting close” to a phase one trade deal.
“It’s not done yet, but there has been very good progress and the talks have been very constructive,” Kudlow said at an event at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In an appearance on the Fox Business Network on Friday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the talks are “down to the last details” and a deal will be completed “in all likelihood.”
Adding to the positive sentiment, China has lifted a nearly five-year ban on imports of U.S. poultry in a goodwill gesture that could lead to more than $1 billion in annual shipments to China.
Traders also reacted positively to a report from the Commerce Department showing U.S. retail sales rebounded by slightly more than expected in the month of October.
The Commerce Department said retail sales climbed by 0.3 percent in October, reversing the 0.3 percent drop in September. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent.
Excluding a rebound in auto sales, the report said retail sales rose by 0.2 percent in October after edging down by 0.1 percent in September. Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.4 percent.
Meanwhile, traders shrugged off a report from the Federal Reserve showing a steep drop in industrial production in October, as the decrease was partly due to the since-resolved strike at General Motors (GM).
Healthcare stocks turned in some of the market’s best performances on the day, resulting in a 2.2 percent jump by the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index. The index ended the session at a new record closing high.
Significant strength was also visible among biotechnology stocks, as reflected by the 2 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. The advance lifted the index to its best closing level in over three months.
Oil service stocks also saw considerable strength on the day, driving the Philadelphia Oil Service Index up by 1.9 percent. The strength among oil service stocks came amid a notable increase by the price of crude oil.
Natural gas, steel, pharmaceutical and computer hardware stocks also turned in strong performances amid broad based buying interest.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in June 2026 moderated to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, as pressure from the Iran war mildly eased, though it largely remained in focus during the review month.
In the report on Wednesday, the statistical office showed that the headline inflation rate for June on a month-on-month basis was 1.66 per cent, 0.09 per cent lower than the 1.75 per cent recorded in May 2026.
On an annualised basis, the print was down from 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025). This was due to the rebasing of the calculation year from 2009 to 2024.
The rise in prices, which stemmed from the continued conflict in the Middle East, continued to stoke food prices and energy costs, which account for a huge chunk of average spending.
The food inflation rate in May 2026 on a month-on-month basis was 3.75 per cent, up by 0.77 percentage points from May 2026 (2.98 per cent), while on a year-on-year basis, it was 17.52 per cent and stood at 25.41 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025).
At 15.91 per cent print, the inflation marginally beat expectations by Meristem Research, predicted at 15.95 per cent.
There had been expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran would help drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front. However, with conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
This will be a core factor that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be looking at when it meets for the next policy meeting. At its last meeting, the committee left benchmarked interest rates at 26.5 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.
With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.
The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.
“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.
“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.
“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.
