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Trade Deal Uncertainties May Weaken Oil Prices This Week

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crude oil prices

By Adedapo Adesanya  

Oil prices may experience decline this week despite the progress made in the US-China trade deal, which has seen demand for oil take a hit and had in turn impacted strongly on oil prices.

However, this issue also lent support to prices last week as session received massive backing spurred by progress in the talks, increasing US crude supply, and the potential of a deeper cut in production from oil producers in OPEC.

The international oil benchmark, the Brent, charted around $63 last week, trading around $62.95 per barrel, following reports that the United States and China have announced plans to remove tariffs placed on imports.

But this saw a fallback when analysts unveiled that China might have made too many concessions as part of the deal, while the US was not on the same page, as evident in President Xi Jinping saying that without this, a visit to the US will not be possible.

As market resume today for the week, it is anticipated that uncertainties over venue for the signing of the trade deal between both nations would take a toll on oil prices. Last week, there were reports of a delay in the striking of the truce until December over terms and venue, causing a drop in major futures.

Prices were also pressured by the news that US inventories rose 7.9 million barrels the week-ended November 1, as producers cut output and exports fell according to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Traders had been looking for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

On the OPEC front, Business Post had reported that the cartel and its allies hinted that there could be deeper production cuts from its members and allies in an effort to balance the impact of falling oil demand. However, comments from the body last Tuesday expressed doubts on whether the cartel and its affiliates will have to cut output.

According to the Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo earlier last week, he was more optimistic about the outlook for 2020 because of potentially positive developments on trade disputes, appearing to downplay any need to cut output more deeply.

Looking at this week, concerns on the direction of the phase one agreement will help oli prices especially if the date and the venue of the signing are announced.

Also, OPEC dedication to production cuts will also add to oil prices gains but this could be limited if data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and especially the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday shows another increase in U.S. supply.

As at the time of this report, Brent Crude is currently trading down at $61.89 while the West Texas Intermediate is down more than 1 percent down at $56.62.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Broadens Feedstock Base With UAE Crude Purchase

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dangote refinery trucks

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it diversifies its feedstock sources ahead of continuous expansion.

According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.

The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. The company sources crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

The refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Plc had agreed on the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in Naira, but the volumes often fluctuate. In May, the state oil company allocated seven cargoes to the plant, up from five in previous months.

The chief executive of the Dangote Refinery, Mr David Bird, had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.

According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.

The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.

Business Post understands that since NNPC cargoes are cheaper for the ​refinery because of lower ​shipping costs, importation of crude could translate to higher fuel prices, with Nigerians possibly buying as high as N1,300 – N1,400 at the pump.

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Economy

FCCPC Laments Lack of Price Relief Despite Falling Global Oil Prices

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Petrol Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has expressed concern that Nigerian consumers have yet to benefit from lower prices despite the recent sharp decline in global crude oil prices.

Business Post reports that crude prices currently trade around $69 and $71 per barrel in the international market.

The commission stated on Sunday that following a market surveillance exercise, the review of gantry prices from local refiners, marketers, depot operators and retail outlets showed only token reductions, not aligned with the steep drop in international crude prices.

The chief executive of the agency, Mr Tunji Bello, said that though the FCCPC does not set petroleum prices in a deregulated market, it is mandated by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, to promote competition and protect consumers from unfair business practices.

“To be clear, the commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market. Our responsibility under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, is to promote competitive markets, prevent anti-competitive conduct, and protect consumers from unfair, deceptive and exploitative business practices,” Mr Bello said.

“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions,” he added.

The organisation noted that crude prices fell to about $73 per barrel after a recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, down from a peak near $120 per barrel in April.

During the April–May price spike, petrol prices rose to between N1,350 and N1,500 while diesel traded around N2,000. In February, PMS averaged between N800 and N900. Presently, average retail PMS nationwide is about N1,200, with some local refiners listing gantry prices between N1,025 and N1,075.

The FCCPC acknowledged that domestic fuel prices are affected by multiple commercial factors, including refining costs, foreign-exchange movements, logistics, financing and distribution expenses, but said competitive market dynamics should have passed more of the recent international cost declines to consumers.

“Market liberalisation does not diminish businesses’ obligations to compete fairly or consumers’ right to fair treatment,” Mr Bello added. “Where credible evidence indicates conduct that undermines competition, exploits consumers or otherwise contravenes the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, the Commission will investigate and take appropriate enforcement action,” urging consumers to report suspected anti-competitive conduct, misleading pricing or other unfair market behaviour via its established complaint channels.

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Economy

Four Securities Erase N51.17bn from NASD Exchange

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NASD Exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.95 per cent on Friday, erasing N41.17 billion from the bourse, which had its market capitalisation at N2.567 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.618 trillion.

In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased at the close of business by 85.28 points to 4,277.07 points from 4,362.32 points.

The price decliners were led by 11 Plc, which gave up N20.50 to sell at N200.50 per share compared with the preceding day’s N221.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped N16.94 to close at N155.20 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N172.14 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N2.11 to N84.68 per share from N86.79 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 11 Kobo to end at N16.74 per unit, in contrast to the N16.85 per unit it closed a day earlier.

During the trading day, the value of transactions jumped by 172.1 per cent to N29.9 million from the preceding session’s N10.9 million, and the volume of trades soared by 136.5 per cent to 955,096 units from the previous 403,901 units, while the number of deals went down by 11.4 per cent to 31 deals from 35 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.6 million units sold for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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