By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms, the federal government said on Thursday.

The projection was outlined by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, during the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.

Mr Edun said Nigeria had moved beyond the crisis-management phase of recent years and was now entering a period of economic consolidation, where stability must translate into growth, jobs and improved living standards.

According to the minister, two years of difficult reforms have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, creating a platform for sustained expansion.

Inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025. Foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $45.5 billion.

GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion, Mr Edun said.

He warned, however, that Nigeria could not afford to reverse course.

Mr Edun said Nigeria cannot afford to pause or retreat from its reform agenda adding that the success of the consolidation phase would determine whether recent gains deliver productive jobs and shared prosperity.

The finance minister also addressed public concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt stock, which stood at about N152 trillion, insisting that the increase was largely the result of transparency and exchange rate adjustments rather than fresh borrowing.

He explained that about N30 trillion of the figure reflected previously unrecognised Ways and Means advances, now formally recorded, while nearly N49 trillion resulted from the revaluation of foreign debt following exchange rate reforms.

Despite the higher nominal figure, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 36.1 per cent, which the minister said remained among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.

Reviewing fiscal outcomes in 2025, Mr Edun said the government maintained discipline despite revenue pressures, particularly from the oil and gas sector.

The fiscal deficit was kept at about 3.4 per cent of GDP, while non-oil revenue performance improved and allocations to states increased, strengthening fiscal federalism.

He also said the government achieved 84 per cent capital budget execution for 2024 projects during the transition period.

The minister noted that the 2026 Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity, currently under deliberation by the National Assembly, would prioritise growth-enhancing investments.

The budget proposes N58.18 trillion in total spending, including N26 trillion for capital expenditure, representing about 44 per cent of the total budget, one of the largest capital spending plans in Nigeria’s history.

Inflation is projected to average 16.5 per cent in 2026, while the exchange rate is expected to stabilise around N1,400/$1.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four price decliners weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.22 per cent on Thursday, January 15, with MRS Oil the gang leader after it lost N5.00 to close at N195.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N200.00 per share.

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined during the session by 47 Kobo to settle at N40.50 per unit versus Wednesday’s closing price of N40.97 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc depreciated by 21 Kobo to end at N6.59 per share versus N6.80 per share, and Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc dipped by 2 Kobo to sell at N3.10 per unit, in contrast to the N3.12 it was traded at midweek.

The losses printed by the above quartet reduced the market capitalisation of the trading platform by N4.88 billion to N2.195 trillion from N2.2 trillion, while the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) sank by 8.03 points to 3,670.10 points from 3,678.13 points.

During the trading day, the volume of transactions was up by 7.1 per cent to 690,886 units from 645,002 units, but the value of trades went down by 29.2 per cent to N17.3 million from the N24.4 million recorded in the previous trading session, and the number of deals executed at the session dipped by 10.5  per cent to 17 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, CSCS Plc remained the busiest stock by value on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 2.9 million units worth N117.9 million, trailed by MRS Oil Plc with 270,773 units valued at N54.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 6.5 million units traded for N43.9 million.

But the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was Geo-Fluids Plc with 6.5 million units sold for N43.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 3.1 million units traded for N1.9 million, and CSCS Plc with the same of 2.9 million units valued at N117.9 million.

Africa’s investment market is entering a phase of visible transition, driven not by a single shock but by the gradual accumulation of structural changes. For years, the continent was often discussed through simplified narratives — either as an untapped frontier or as a high-risk environment requiring exceptional tolerance. That framing is beginning to lose relevance as investors reassess how and where capital actually performs under evolving global conditions.

What is changing first is not the volume of interest, but its direction. Capital is becoming more selective, less patient with inefficiency, and more focused on how investments interact with trade, logistics, and regional demand rather than isolated national stories. This shift is subtle, but it alters the underlying logic of how Africa is evaluated as an investment destination.

In this context, the growing attention around platforms and ecosystems such as westafricatradehub reflects a broader reorientation toward connectivity and execution. Investment discussions increasingly revolve around trade flows, supply chains, and integration mechanisms instead of abstract growth potential. The emphasis is moving from “where growth exists” to “where growth can realistically be accessed.”

Several forces are converging to accelerate this change. Global capital is operating under tighter constraints, with higher financing costs and stronger pressure to demonstrate resilience. At the same time, African markets are becoming more internally differentiated. Some regions benefit from improved infrastructure, digital adoption, and regulatory clarity, while others struggle to convert opportunity into consistent returns. This divergence makes generalized strategies less effective.

As a result, investors are adjusting their approach in practical ways, including:

• Prioritizing regions with established trade corridors rather than standalone markets
• Favoring business models tied to everyday demand instead of long-term speculation
• Structuring investments in stages rather than committing large amounts upfront
• Placing greater value on operational partners with local execution capacity

These adjustments do not signal reduced confidence, but a more disciplined allocation mindset.

Another factor reshaping the market is the changing perception of risk. Traditional concerns such as political stability and currency volatility remain relevant, but they are now weighed alongside newer considerations. Execution risk, infrastructure reliability, and regulatory consistency often matter more than macroeconomic projections. In some cases, smaller but better-connected markets outperform larger economies where friction remains high.

This evolution also affects which sectors attract attention. Instead of broad category enthusiasm, interest clusters around areas where investment aligns with trade and consumption realities. Logistics, processing, digital services, and trade-enabling infrastructure increasingly define where capital feels comfortable operating. Growth still exists elsewhere, but it is approached more cautiously.

Importantly, this transformation is not uniform or immediate. Africa’s investment market will not change overnight, nor will it move in a single direction. What makes the current moment distinct is the fading dominance of legacy assumptions. Investors are no longer satisfied with potential alone; they want visibility, access, and durability, mentioned the editorial team of https://westafricatradehub.com/.

In the near future, Africa’s investment landscape may look very different not because opportunities disappear, but because the criteria for recognizing them have changed. The market is becoming less about promise and more about precision — and that shift is quietly redefining where growth is expected to emerge next.