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Vetiva Predicts 20% Growth for Nigerian Stock Market in 2018

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By Dipo Olowookere

Investors in the Nigerian capital market should expect more gains in 2018 as the nation’s stock market will further grow next year, analysts at Vetiva Research have predicted.

In its recently released report titled ‘Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba,’ Vetiva research said the growth would be boosted by stability in the country’s foreign exchange (forex) market in 2017.

“Despite the 2017 equity market rally driven by a partial liberalization of the country’s exchange rate regime, the Nigerian Stock Exchange remains relatively undervalued.

“Now, favourable external conditions support further growth; bolstered by stability in FX and energy supply, receding cost pressure and strengthening consumer demand.

“Amidst this, we project a strong equity market performance in 2018, with an estimated full year return of 15 percent-20 percent (Bear: -10 percent, Bull: 30 percent).

“Meanwhile, late-2017 likely marked the end of Nigeria’s golden yield environment as the monetary authorities chart a path towards lower interest rates in the country.

“Material monetary easing is expected in 2018, the intensity of which would be driven by the relative demands of economic growth and the pace of moderation in inflation,” the 169-page report stated.

The report said in 2017, the Nigerian bourse enjoyed a very good performance, advancing 43 percent by the close of business on December 15 and chief among the drivers of this surge was the introduction of the ‘Investors & Exporters’ foreign exchange window (I&E window) which revived investor confidence and boosted liquidity in the foreign exchange market (FX).

“Going forward, we anticipate continued progress on this front amidst a positive outlook for FX earnings on the back of stable oil prices and production levels. Supplementing this, recent regulation points towards a more significant role for domestic institutions in the Nigerian market which would inevitably support demand.

“Amidst these, an improving economic environment (2017E GDP growth: 0.6%, 2018F GDP growth: 2.0%) would buoy company earnings and risk appetite in the market, especially given our expectation of lower interest rates in 2018,” it said.

Continuing, the report said, “We expect this performance to be driven by strong growth across undervalued Tier 2 banking names and continued recovery in the consumer goods sector.

“In the long run, steps to improve corporate governance and investor sophistication are necessary to achieve the desired level of market deepening and diversity.

“We consider initiatives such as a thriving derivatives market and demutualization of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as precursors to this and hope to see progress on these fronts in 2018.”

On the economy, the Vetiva report said in the year 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2 percent.

“Amidst brighter prospects for global economic growth and the OPEC decision to extend the output cut agreement through 2018, we expect Nigeria to pursue its growth agenda within a relatively favourable global economic landscape.

“A promising revenue outlook and another record budget present a case for a year of strong fiscal stimulus – contingent on a deviation from the recent trend of delayed budget passage. The FX market, a significant win in 2017, would remain essential in the coming year.

“Overall, driven by expansive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as strengthening consumer wallets, we anticipate 2.0 percent y/y GDP for Nigeria 2018 in our base scenario (Bear: -0.3 percent y/y, Bull: 2.9 percent y/y). As the Nigerian economy looks set to reach another gear, the timing of the potential political disruption from 2019 elections is unwelcome.

“Despite this, we anticipate an outsized influence of the imminent elections on economic and political stakeholders as 2018 winds down, hopefully only at a minor cost to economic activities,” the report said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Odu’a Investment Buys 10% Stake in FCMB Pensions

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FCMB Pensions

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 10 per cent equity stake has been acquired by Odu’a Investment Company Limited in a subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc, FCMB Pensions Limited.

The move is aimed at strengthening its presence in Nigeria’s growing pension industry.

The company disclosed that the transaction was completed after receiving all required regulatory approvals from the National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also been duly notified.

Odu’a Investment said the acquisition represents a strategic investment in a resilient and steadily expanding segment of Nigeria’s financial services sector.

The company added that the deal also reinforces FCMB Pensions’ shareholder base through the entry of a long-term institutional investor.

Chairman of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Bimbo Ashiru, said the investment aligns with the organisation’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors critical to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability.

“This investment reflects Odu’a’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors that are central to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and growth,” he said in a statement.

“The pension industry plays a critical role in mobilising long-term savings and strengthening the financial system. FCMB Pensions has built a solid platform serving contributors across Nigeria, and we see a significant opportunity to support its continued growth and impact,” he added.

Also commenting on the transaction, the Managing Director of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Abdulrahman Yinusa, described the deal as a vote of confidence in FCMB Pensions’ leadership and long-term prospects.

“Our partnership with FCMB Group Plc reflects confidence in FCMB Pensions’ strategy, leadership, and long-term potential. Together, we will work to expand its reach, support its strategic objectives, and deliver sustained value to contributors and other stakeholders,” Mr Yinusa said.

The investment brings together two established institutions with complementary strengths and a shared focus on long-term value creation. According to the company, the partnership positions FCMB Pensions to deepen market penetration and enhance service delivery within Nigeria’s contributory pension scheme.

Odu’a Investment Company Limited is an investment holding company jointly owned by the governments of the six South-West states of Nigeria.

The firm manages a diversified portfolio spanning real estate, financial services, hospitality, agriculture, and industrial investments, with a mandate to generate sustainable economic value and support regional development.

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Economy

Global Investors Now Interest in Nigeria Because of Reforms—Popoola

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The chief executive of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, has said Nigeria’s capital market is undergoing a re-rating as global investors begin to reassess the country’s economic trajectory and investment potential.

“What we are seeing is a gradual re-rating of Nigeria. investors are beginning to look at the data more closely, the returns, the reforms, and the improving macroeconomic direction, and that is changing sentiment,” he said during a live interview on BBC Newsday in London.

He is in the United Kingdom as part of broader investor and stakeholder engagements during President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Buckingham Palace.

Mr Popoola explained that Nigeria’s equity market has delivered strong returns in recent months, positioning it more competitively among emerging and frontier markets. According to him, this performance is helping to recalibrate long-held risk perceptions and attract renewed interest from international investors.

He added that improvements in Nigeria’s energy landscape, including increased domestic refining capacity and ongoing sector reforms, are helping to reduce the economy’s exposure to external oil price shocks, further strengthening investor confidence.

Mr Popoola emphasised that beyond short-term market movements, consistency in policy implementation will be critical in sustaining this shift in perception. “Global capital responds to clarity and consistency. As those elements become more evident, Nigeria naturally becomes more investable.”

He also highlighted the importance of sustained engagement with global financial centres, noting that platforms such as London play a key role in connecting Nigeria’s capital market to international pools of capital.

According to him, Nigeria’s evolving market structure, combined with ongoing reforms, is strengthening its position as a viable destination for long-term investment. “There is a broader recognition that Nigeria offers significant opportunities. The focus now is ensuring that this recognition translates into sustained capital flows.”

The NGX group chief concluded that Nigeria’s capital market is increasingly being viewed through a more balanced and data-driven lens, reflecting both its resilience and its long-term growth potential.

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Economy

Luno Introduces Crypto Price Prediction Product in Nigeria

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Global cryptocurrency platform, Luno, has launched a structured crypto prediction markets product in Nigeria, which will enable customers to apply their market knowledge to short-term crypto price events and earn USDC when their insights are correct.

The prediction market allows customers to express a view on whether the price of selected crypto assets, being BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, and XRP, will be above or below the daily price event. The market operates daily with clearly defined rules and settlement periods, offering customers structured, time-bound opportunities to act on their conviction.

Nigeria remains one of the most active crypto markets globally, with increasing demand for tools that combine simplicity and transparency. By introducing Prediction Markets focused solely on price levels, Luno aims to provide a fast, confident, and opportunity-forward format for market engagement.

Unlike traditional gaming or prediction firms like Polymarket and Kalshi, in which the odds are set by the company, Luno’s Prediction Market, powered by Limitless, is focused exclusively on crypto asset price movements within the Luno platform.

This means customers are not purchasing the underlying asset, but participating in a defined, outcome-based market that settles transparently based on real-time price data.

According to a statement, the launch reflects a broader shift in how customer behaviour is evolving in Nigeria’s growing crypto asset ecosystem, particularly as crypto asset adoption matures, many users are seeking more flexible and responsive ways to engage with markets beyond long-term holding or traditional spot trading.

Luno’s Prediction Markets product is designed to meet this demand within a familiar and regulated platform environment. The feature builds on how customers already interact with crypto asset prices – analysing charts, following market news, and forming views- and provides a structured framework for expressing those views.

According to Mr Ayotunde Alabi, chief executive of Luno Nigeria, the company is combining crypto education with a secure platform to help Nigerians confidently apply their market knowledge in a responsible and practical way.

“We are seeing a clear shift in how Nigerians want to engage with crypto assets. Many already follow price movements closely and form strong market views; we want to lead with education as well as provide a safe and secure platform to help them apply that knowledge. This feature is designed to be a natural extension for those who enjoy forecasting.

“By tying this to our ongoing educational initiatives, such as our scholarships with AltSchool, we are encouraging users to apply what they have learned about market analysis into a practical, responsible framework. Our priority is ensuring that where confidence meets opportunity, it is supported by the standards of trust our customers expect.”

Luno said it will further support the rollout with Learn & Earn educational content and tutorials explaining market mechanics and price determination. To promote informed decision-making and ensure the product is used responsibly,

Luno has embedded specific controls, including customers reading and acknowledging a risk disclosure before participating, as well as moving funds from their ordinary USDC wallet to a separate prediction wallet, which will be used to participate in prediction markets.

The firm also said that customers cannot hold both sides of the same market, in this case, Above and Below at the same time.

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