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Vetiva Predicts 20% Growth for Nigerian Stock Market in 2018

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By Dipo Olowookere

Investors in the Nigerian capital market should expect more gains in 2018 as the nation’s stock market will further grow next year, analysts at Vetiva Research have predicted.

In its recently released report titled ‘Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba,’ Vetiva research said the growth would be boosted by stability in the country’s foreign exchange (forex) market in 2017.

“Despite the 2017 equity market rally driven by a partial liberalization of the country’s exchange rate regime, the Nigerian Stock Exchange remains relatively undervalued.

“Now, favourable external conditions support further growth; bolstered by stability in FX and energy supply, receding cost pressure and strengthening consumer demand.

“Amidst this, we project a strong equity market performance in 2018, with an estimated full year return of 15 percent-20 percent (Bear: -10 percent, Bull: 30 percent).

“Meanwhile, late-2017 likely marked the end of Nigeria’s golden yield environment as the monetary authorities chart a path towards lower interest rates in the country.

“Material monetary easing is expected in 2018, the intensity of which would be driven by the relative demands of economic growth and the pace of moderation in inflation,” the 169-page report stated.

The report said in 2017, the Nigerian bourse enjoyed a very good performance, advancing 43 percent by the close of business on December 15 and chief among the drivers of this surge was the introduction of the ‘Investors & Exporters’ foreign exchange window (I&E window) which revived investor confidence and boosted liquidity in the foreign exchange market (FX).

“Going forward, we anticipate continued progress on this front amidst a positive outlook for FX earnings on the back of stable oil prices and production levels. Supplementing this, recent regulation points towards a more significant role for domestic institutions in the Nigerian market which would inevitably support demand.

“Amidst these, an improving economic environment (2017E GDP growth: 0.6%, 2018F GDP growth: 2.0%) would buoy company earnings and risk appetite in the market, especially given our expectation of lower interest rates in 2018,” it said.

Continuing, the report said, “We expect this performance to be driven by strong growth across undervalued Tier 2 banking names and continued recovery in the consumer goods sector.

“In the long run, steps to improve corporate governance and investor sophistication are necessary to achieve the desired level of market deepening and diversity.

“We consider initiatives such as a thriving derivatives market and demutualization of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as precursors to this and hope to see progress on these fronts in 2018.”

On the economy, the Vetiva report said in the year 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2 percent.

“Amidst brighter prospects for global economic growth and the OPEC decision to extend the output cut agreement through 2018, we expect Nigeria to pursue its growth agenda within a relatively favourable global economic landscape.

“A promising revenue outlook and another record budget present a case for a year of strong fiscal stimulus – contingent on a deviation from the recent trend of delayed budget passage. The FX market, a significant win in 2017, would remain essential in the coming year.

“Overall, driven by expansive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as strengthening consumer wallets, we anticipate 2.0 percent y/y GDP for Nigeria 2018 in our base scenario (Bear: -0.3 percent y/y, Bull: 2.9 percent y/y). As the Nigerian economy looks set to reach another gear, the timing of the potential political disruption from 2019 elections is unwelcome.

“Despite this, we anticipate an outsized influence of the imminent elections on economic and political stakeholders as 2018 winds down, hopefully only at a minor cost to economic activities,” the report said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Shettima Blames CBN’s FX Intervention for Naira Depreciation

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Kashim Shettima

By Adedapo Adesanya

Vice President Kashim Shettima has attributed the Naira’s recent depreciation to the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange (FX) market, stating that the currency could have strengthened to around N1,000 per Dollar within weeks if the apex bank had allowed market forces to prevail.

The local currency has dropped over N8.37 on the Dollar in the last week, as it closed at N1,355.37/$1 on Tuesday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), after it went on a spree late last month and into the early weeks of February.

However, speaking on Tuesday at the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), Renewed Hope Ambassadors Strategic Summit in Abuja, the Nigerian VP said the intervention was to ensure stability.

“In fact, if not for the interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria yesterday, the 1,000 Naira to a Dollar we are going to attain in weeks, not in months. But for the purpose of market stability, the CBN generously intervened yesterday.

“So, for some of my friends, especially one of our party leaders who takes delight in stockpiling dollars, it is a wake-up call,” the vice president said.

He was alluding to CBN buying US Dollars from the market to slow down the rapid rise of the Naira.

Latest information showed that last week, the apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.

The move was aimed at preventing foreign portfolio investors from exiting Nigeria’s fixed-income market, as large-scale sell-offs could heighten demand for US Dollars, intensify capital flight, and exert further pressure on the exchange rate.

Amid this, speaking after the 304th meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday, Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $50.45 billion, the highest level in 13 years.

This strengthens the country’s foreign exchange buffers, enhances the apex bank’s capacity to defend the Naira when needed, and boosts investor confidence in the stability of the Nigerian FX market.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Exports 20 million Litres Surplus of PMS

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Up to 20 million litres in surplus of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, is being exported daily by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals after supplying about 65 million litres to the domestic market.

Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption stands at between 50 and 60 million litres, indicating that the refinery’s output exceeds current domestic requirements, marking a decisive break from decades of fuel import dependence and recurrent scarcity.

The president of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, speaking in Lagos, while confirming a structured offtake agreement with selected marketers to ensure nationwide distribution and eliminate supply instability, said the structured model was designed to eliminate supply bottlenecks and curb speculative practices that have historically triggered disruptions.

“We have agreed an offtake framework to supply up to 65 million litres daily for the domestic market. Any surplus, estimated at between 15 and 20 million litres, will be exported,” he said.

Under a revised distribution framework endorsed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the refinery will channel nationwide supply through major marketing companies, including MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited Retail (NNPC), 11 plc (Mobil Producing Nigeria), TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc, Rainoil Limited, Northwest Petroleum & Gas Company Limited, Ardova Plc, Bovas & Company Limited, AA Rano Nigeria Limited, AYM Shafa Limited, Conoil and Masters Energy.

With local refining now exceeding national demand, the country stands to conserve billions of dollars annually in foreign exchange previously spent on petrol imports. Analysts say this would ease pressure on the naira, strengthen external reserves, and improve trade balance stability.

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Economy

NECA, CPPE Laud CBN’s 0.50% Interest Rate Cut

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) have separately commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

In reaction, NECA Director-General, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, praised the decision in a statement, noting that the 50 basis-point cut is “a cautious but noteworthy signal” that authorities were responding to sustained pressures on businesses.

He said the marginal reduction might not immediately lower lending rates, but reflected “a gradual shift toward supporting growth without undermining price stability”.

According to him, the overall stance remained tight, with the Cash Reserve Ratio retained at 45 per cent and the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent.

He added that the asymmetric corridor around the MPR was also maintained, reinforcing a cautious monetary approach.

“With a substantial portion of deposits still sterilised, banks’ capacity to expand credit to the real sector may remain constrained in the near term,” he said.

Mr Oyerinde described the move as “a careful balancing act” aimed at moderating inflation without worsening pressures on businesses.

He noted that firms continued to grapple with high operating costs, exchange rate volatility and weakened consumer demand.

“Inflation, particularly in food, energy and transportation, remains a significant challenge to employers and households,” he said.

He stressed that the modest easing must be supported by coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to address supply-side constraints.

Such reforms, he said, should improve infrastructure and enhance productivity across key sectors of the economy.

Mr Oyerinde urged financial institutions to ensure the MPR reduction was gradually reflected in lending conditions for manufacturers and SMEs.

He affirmed that although the MPC had not fully relaxed its tightening stance, the rate cut signalled cautious optimism.

“Sustained improvements in inflation, exchange rate stability and investor confidence will determine scope for further easing that supports growth and employment,” he said.

On its part, the CPPE said the decision reflected improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a cautious shift from aggressive tightening.

The organisation noted that sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, an improved trade balance and relative exchange-rate stability had created room for monetary easing.

It said the rate cut could boost investor confidence and support private-sector growth, but cautioned that weak monetary transmission might limit its impact on lending rates.

The CPPE identified high cash reserve requirements, elevated lending rates, government borrowing and structural banking costs as major constraints to effective transmission.

The group also stressed the need for fiscal consolidation, citing high public debt, persistent deficits and rising debt-service obligations as risks to macroeconomic stability.

According to the chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, effective policy coordination and stronger transmission mechanisms were critical to unlocking investment and sustaining growth, lauding the CBN for what he described as a measured and data-driven policy adjustment.

The CPPE boss noted that the easing reflected strengthening macroeconomic performance, declining inflation, growing reserves, improved trade balance and enhanced foreign exchange stability.

Mr Yusuf added that for the benefits of monetary easing to be fully realised, authorities must strengthen transmission to ensure lower lending rates for the real sector and advance credible fiscal consolidation to safeguard stability.

He said that if supported by structural reforms and disciplined fiscal management, the current policy direction could unlock a stronger investment cycle and more durable economic growth.

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