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Vetiva Predicts 20% Growth for Nigerian Stock Market in 2018

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By Dipo Olowookere

Investors in the Nigerian capital market should expect more gains in 2018 as the nation’s stock market will further grow next year, analysts at Vetiva Research have predicted.

In its recently released report titled ‘Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba,’ Vetiva research said the growth would be boosted by stability in the country’s foreign exchange (forex) market in 2017.

“Despite the 2017 equity market rally driven by a partial liberalization of the country’s exchange rate regime, the Nigerian Stock Exchange remains relatively undervalued.

“Now, favourable external conditions support further growth; bolstered by stability in FX and energy supply, receding cost pressure and strengthening consumer demand.

“Amidst this, we project a strong equity market performance in 2018, with an estimated full year return of 15 percent-20 percent (Bear: -10 percent, Bull: 30 percent).

“Meanwhile, late-2017 likely marked the end of Nigeria’s golden yield environment as the monetary authorities chart a path towards lower interest rates in the country.

“Material monetary easing is expected in 2018, the intensity of which would be driven by the relative demands of economic growth and the pace of moderation in inflation,” the 169-page report stated.

The report said in 2017, the Nigerian bourse enjoyed a very good performance, advancing 43 percent by the close of business on December 15 and chief among the drivers of this surge was the introduction of the ‘Investors & Exporters’ foreign exchange window (I&E window) which revived investor confidence and boosted liquidity in the foreign exchange market (FX).

“Going forward, we anticipate continued progress on this front amidst a positive outlook for FX earnings on the back of stable oil prices and production levels. Supplementing this, recent regulation points towards a more significant role for domestic institutions in the Nigerian market which would inevitably support demand.

“Amidst these, an improving economic environment (2017E GDP growth: 0.6%, 2018F GDP growth: 2.0%) would buoy company earnings and risk appetite in the market, especially given our expectation of lower interest rates in 2018,” it said.

Continuing, the report said, “We expect this performance to be driven by strong growth across undervalued Tier 2 banking names and continued recovery in the consumer goods sector.

“In the long run, steps to improve corporate governance and investor sophistication are necessary to achieve the desired level of market deepening and diversity.

“We consider initiatives such as a thriving derivatives market and demutualization of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as precursors to this and hope to see progress on these fronts in 2018.”

On the economy, the Vetiva report said in the year 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2 percent.

“Amidst brighter prospects for global economic growth and the OPEC decision to extend the output cut agreement through 2018, we expect Nigeria to pursue its growth agenda within a relatively favourable global economic landscape.

“A promising revenue outlook and another record budget present a case for a year of strong fiscal stimulus – contingent on a deviation from the recent trend of delayed budget passage. The FX market, a significant win in 2017, would remain essential in the coming year.

“Overall, driven by expansive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as strengthening consumer wallets, we anticipate 2.0 percent y/y GDP for Nigeria 2018 in our base scenario (Bear: -0.3 percent y/y, Bull: 2.9 percent y/y). As the Nigerian economy looks set to reach another gear, the timing of the potential political disruption from 2019 elections is unwelcome.

“Despite this, we anticipate an outsized influence of the imminent elections on economic and political stakeholders as 2018 winds down, hopefully only at a minor cost to economic activities,” the report said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Naira Rallies to N1,358/$1 at Official Market, N1,450/$1 at Parallel Market

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Naira parallel market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira rallied at the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Wednesday as supply continues to outweigh demand, giving it an edge against the United States Dollar.

In the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira improved its value on the greenback yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,450/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,455/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it gained N3 to trade at N1,383/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s exchange rate of N1,386/$1.

In the the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), which is also the official market, the Naira firmed up against the Dollar at midweek by N14.63 or 1.1 per cent to settle at N1,358.28/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,372.91/$1.

Against the Pound Sterling, the domestic currency appreciated on Wednesday by N14.16 to N1,863.43/£1 from the previous day’s N1,877.59/£1, and gained N13.73 on the Euro to end at N1,606.03/€1 versus the N1,619.76/€1 it was exchanged a day earlier.

The strengthening of the Naira value has been driven by the injection of forex into the financial markets by foreign investors seeking attractive investments in the emerging markets, helping to boost Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the capacity to support the local currency.

As of February 4, 2026, the reserves reached $46.59 billion.

The local currency has been able to find a solid path despite no indications of any intervention from the apex bank in recent week, strengthening the case of price discovery.

Policy moves by the CBN is also offering a backbone for the FX market as it considers some strategic reforms through a policy known as the Single Regulatory Window.

In its 2025 Fintech Report, the central bank said this scheme will significantly reduce time-to-market for new digital financial products by streamlining licensing and supervisory processes across multiple agencies.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was in red amid a broad sell-off in global technology stocks, with reports showing that liquidity was notably thin, amplifying price moves and contributing to forced liquidations. The decline followed a sharp sell-off in global technology stocks overnight, where concerns over the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and rising capital spending by major firms weighed heavily on valuations.

Bitcoin (BTC) lost 7.9 per cent to sell at $70,534.94, Ripple (XRP) declined by 11.2 per cent to $1.42, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 9.4 per cent to $689.70, Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 8.9 per cent to $2,072.46, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 8.7 per cent to $89.86.

In addition, Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 6.9 per cent to $0.1008, Cardano (ADA) slipped by 6.8 per cent to $0.2792, Litecoin (LTC) dropped 5.1 per cent to trade at $57.56, and US Dollar Tether (USDT) went down by 0.1 per cent to $0.9980, while the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00.

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Economy

Selective Buying in Bellwether Stocks Further Raises NGX by 1.28%

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By Dipo Olowookere

The decision of investors to cherry-pick stocks with sound fundamentals across categories further lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 1.28 per cent on Wednesday.

This selective buying of equities was inspired by the earnings season, as companies that have already released their 2025 financial statements have impressed market participants.

However, the insurance sector experienced profit-taking yesterday, causing its index to go down by 0.84 per cent at the close of business.

But this loss was offset by the 2.33 per cent growth achieved by the banking index, with the other remaining sectors also closing in green. The energy industry appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the industrial goods landscape expanded by 1.20 per cent, and the consumer goods counter improved by 1.09 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 2,128.61 points to 168,030.18 points from 165,901.57 points and the market capitalization rose by N1.366 trillion to N107.861 trillion from the previous day’s N106.495 trillion.

Yesterday, 53 equities ended on the advancers’ chart and 26 equities finished on the laggards’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

DAAR Communications led the gainers’ group after it surged by 10.00 per cent to sell for N1.87, Berger Paints appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N66.00, Fortis Global Insurance advanced by 10.00 per cent to 22 Kobo, RT Briscoe also jumped by 10.00 per cent to N10.45, and First Holdco improved by 9.92 per cent to N48.75.

Conversely, Red Star Express led the losers’ gang after it went down by 9.97 per cent to N17.15, Deap Capital also fell by 9.97 per cent to N6.86, Union Homes REIT slipped by 9.95 per cent to N69.25, McNichols dipped by 9.93 per cent to N6.53, and eTranzact lost 9.89 per cent to trade at N16.85.

At the midweek’s session, traders transacted 694.8 million shares worth N20.6 billion in 42,095 deals compared with the 736.4 million shares valued at N24.7 billion traded in 46,026 deals a day earlier, showing a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 5.65 per cent, 16.60 per cent, and 8.54 per cent, respectively.

Chams ended the day as the busiest stock after trading 57.4 million units worth N256.3 million, Universal Insurance transacted 56.2 million units valued at N88.8 million, First Holdco exchanged 35.3 million units for N1.7 billion, Deap Capital traded 26.8 million units valued at N187.0 million, and Wema Bank sold 26.7 million units worth N674.6 million.

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Economy

Oil Prices Climb 3% on US-Iran Talk Jitters

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices surged about 3 per cent on Wednesday after it was reported that planned talks between the United States and Iran on Friday could collapse.

Brent futures grew by $2.13 or 3.16 per cent to $69.46 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained $1.93 or 3.05 per cent to trade at $65.14 per barrel.

The US and Iran had agreed to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers.

However, the Iranians said on Tuesday that they wanted to move the talks to Oman and hold them in a bilateral format, to ensure that they focused only on nuclear issues and not other matters like missiles that are priorities for the US and countries in the region.

US officials were at first open to the request to change the location but then rejected it.

Later, the talks scheduled for Friday were back on, after several Middle Eastern leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away.

The talks will be held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday.

The tensions between the US and Iran and heightened fears of potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through.

Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait.

Recall that the US military on Tuesday shot down an Iranian drone that aggressively approached a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Separately, a group of Iranian gunboats approached a US-flagged tanker north of Oman.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude stocks fell last week as a winter storm gripped large swaths of the country.

US crude oil inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels last week, as oil output slid to the lowest level since November 2024, the EIA said.

The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which suggested that crude oil inventories fell by a colossal 11.1 million barrels.

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