Economy
Vetiva Predicts 20% Growth for Nigerian Stock Market in 2018
By Dipo Olowookere
Investors in the Nigerian capital market should expect more gains in 2018 as the nation’s stock market will further grow next year, analysts at Vetiva Research have predicted.
In its recently released report titled ‘Nigeria 2018 Outlook: Acta Non Verba,’ Vetiva research said the growth would be boosted by stability in the country’s foreign exchange (forex) market in 2017.
“Despite the 2017 equity market rally driven by a partial liberalization of the country’s exchange rate regime, the Nigerian Stock Exchange remains relatively undervalued.
“Now, favourable external conditions support further growth; bolstered by stability in FX and energy supply, receding cost pressure and strengthening consumer demand.
“Amidst this, we project a strong equity market performance in 2018, with an estimated full year return of 15 percent-20 percent (Bear: -10 percent, Bull: 30 percent).
“Meanwhile, late-2017 likely marked the end of Nigeria’s golden yield environment as the monetary authorities chart a path towards lower interest rates in the country.
“Material monetary easing is expected in 2018, the intensity of which would be driven by the relative demands of economic growth and the pace of moderation in inflation,” the 169-page report stated.
The report said in 2017, the Nigerian bourse enjoyed a very good performance, advancing 43 percent by the close of business on December 15 and chief among the drivers of this surge was the introduction of the ‘Investors & Exporters’ foreign exchange window (I&E window) which revived investor confidence and boosted liquidity in the foreign exchange market (FX).
“Going forward, we anticipate continued progress on this front amidst a positive outlook for FX earnings on the back of stable oil prices and production levels. Supplementing this, recent regulation points towards a more significant role for domestic institutions in the Nigerian market which would inevitably support demand.
“Amidst these, an improving economic environment (2017E GDP growth: 0.6%, 2018F GDP growth: 2.0%) would buoy company earnings and risk appetite in the market, especially given our expectation of lower interest rates in 2018,” it said.
Continuing, the report said, “We expect this performance to be driven by strong growth across undervalued Tier 2 banking names and continued recovery in the consumer goods sector.
“In the long run, steps to improve corporate governance and investor sophistication are necessary to achieve the desired level of market deepening and diversity.
“We consider initiatives such as a thriving derivatives market and demutualization of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as precursors to this and hope to see progress on these fronts in 2018.”
On the economy, the Vetiva report said in the year 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to increase by 2 percent.
“Amidst brighter prospects for global economic growth and the OPEC decision to extend the output cut agreement through 2018, we expect Nigeria to pursue its growth agenda within a relatively favourable global economic landscape.
“A promising revenue outlook and another record budget present a case for a year of strong fiscal stimulus – contingent on a deviation from the recent trend of delayed budget passage. The FX market, a significant win in 2017, would remain essential in the coming year.
“Overall, driven by expansive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as strengthening consumer wallets, we anticipate 2.0 percent y/y GDP for Nigeria 2018 in our base scenario (Bear: -0.3 percent y/y, Bull: 2.9 percent y/y). As the Nigerian economy looks set to reach another gear, the timing of the potential political disruption from 2019 elections is unwelcome.
“Despite this, we anticipate an outsized influence of the imminent elections on economic and political stakeholders as 2018 winds down, hopefully only at a minor cost to economic activities,” the report said.
Economy
Customs Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone in Rivers Collects N53.98bn Revenue
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone Command in Rivers State says it has achieved a record-breaking revenue collection of N53.98 billion between January and November 2024, exceeding its annual target by 2.3 per cent and nearly doubling the N26.80 billion generated in 2023.
This was disclosed by the Customs Area Controller, Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone, Onne, Comptroller Seriki Usman, during a press briefing at the command’s headquarters, where he attributed the success to strategic collaboration with stakeholders, operational efficiency, and a focus on regulatory compliance.
He said, “A notable achievement of the command was its record-breaking revenue collection of N53.98 billion. This figure represents a 2.3 per cent increase over our annual target for 2024 and a remarkable 98.6% rise compared to the N26.80 billion collected in 2023.
“Our record-breaking revenue underscores the importance of effective trade facilitation and regulatory compliance. This achievement reflects the commitment of our officers, the collaboration with stakeholders, and the critical role of the Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone in driving Nigeria’s economic growth,” he said.
He explained that the Command successfully facilitated the export of key products such as refined sugar, fertiliser, liquefied natural gas, LNG, and crude oil from major facilities, including Bundu Sugar Refinery, Notore Chemical PLC, and Bonny Island.
“The seamless management of imports and exports within the free trade zone has enhanced operations for licensed enterprises,” he noted.
Speaking on the significance of these achievements, Comptroller Usman emphasized the need to maintain the momentum.
“This accomplishment is not just about numbers but about fostering trade growth, innovation, and creating a conducive environment for businesses to thrive within the free trade zone.”
On regulatory compliance, Comptroller Usman reassured Nigerians of the Command’s commitment to ensuring adherence to international trade regulations while fostering economic progress.
“Our focus remains on enhancing service delivery, promoting ease of doing business, and driving revenue generation that supports the nation’s development goals,” he said.
The command emphasized that collaboration with stakeholders, particularly the Oil and Gas Free Trade Zone Authority, has been pivotal in achieving these milestones, and called for continued partnership to sustain trade growth and improve service delivery.
As the year comes to a close, the command has reiterated its resolve to solidify its role as a critical revenue driver and trade facilitator in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
Mr Usman said the performance reflects the command’s vital role in strengthening Nigeria’s non-oil revenue base and its determination to remain a key player in the country’s economic transformation efforts.
“We remain committed to sustaining our achievements, fostering trust among stakeholders, and contributing significantly to the nation’s economic growth,” Comptroller Usman concluded.
Economy
FAAC Disburses 1.727trn to FG, States Local Councils in December 2024
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The federal government, the 36 states of the federation and the 774 local government areas have received N1.727 trillion from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) for December 2024.
The funds were disbursed to the three tiers of government from the revenue generated by the nation in November 2024.
At the December meeting of FAAC held in Abuja, it was stated that the amount distributed comprised distributable statutory revenue of N455.354 billion, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N585.700 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N15.046 billion and Exchange Difference revenue of N671.392 billion.
According to a statement signed on Friday by the Director of Press and Public Relations for FAAC, Mr Bawa Mokwa, the money generated last month was about N3.143 trillion, with N103.307 billion used for cost of collection and N1.312 trillion for transfers, interventions and refunds.
It was disclosed that gross statutory revenue of N1.827 trillion was received compared with the N1.336 trillion recorded a month earlier.
The statement said gross revenue of N628.972 billion was available from VAT versus N668.291 billion in the preceding month.
The organisation stated that last month, oil and gas royalty and CET levies recorded significant increases, while excise duty, VAT, import duty, Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Companies Income Tax (CIT) and EMTL decreased considerably.
As for the sharing, FAAC disclosed that from the N1.727 trillion, the central government got N581.856 billion, the states received N549.792 billion, the councils took N402.553 billion, while the benefiting states got N193.291 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
From the N585.700 billion VAT earnings, the national government got N87.855 billion, the states received N292.850 billion and the local councils were given N204.995 billion.
Also, from the N455.354 billion distributable statutory revenue, the federal government was given N175.690 billion, the states got N89.113 billion, the local governments had N68.702 billion, and the benefiting states received N121.849 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
In addition, from the N15.046 billion EMTL revenue, FAAC shared N2.257 billion to the federal government, disbursed N7.523 billion to the states and transferred N5.266 billion to the local councils.
Further, from the N671.392 billion Exchange Difference earnings, it gave central government N316.054 billion, the states N160.306 billion, the local government areas N123.590 billion, and the oil-producing states N71.442 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
Economy
Okitipupa Plc, Two Others Lift Unlisted Securities Market by 0.65%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.65 per cent gain on Friday, December 13, boosted by three equities admitted on the trading platform.
On the last trading session of the week, Okitipupa Plc appreciated by N2.70 to settle at N29.74 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N27.04 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N2.49 to end the session at N42.85 per unit compared with the previous day’s N40.36 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 50 Kobo to close at N16.30 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N15.80 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation added N6.89 billion to settle at N1.062 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.055 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 19.66 points to wrap the session at 3,032.16 points compared with 3,012.50 points recorded in the previous session.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors increased by 171.6 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 447,905 units recorded a day earlier, but the value of shares traded by the market participants declined by 19.3 per cent to N2.4 million from the N3.02 million achieved a day earlier, and the number of deals went down by 14.3 per cent to 18 deals from 21 deals.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 1.7 billion units worth N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 million.
In the same vein, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 108.7 million units for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with a turnover of 297.3 million units worth N5.3 billion.
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