Economy

Zenith Bank Plc: Earnings Beat as Forex Income Spike Dwarfs Huge Provision

Published

8 years ago

14/08/2017

Modupe Gbadeyanka

By Vetiva Research

High interest rate environment lifts top line despite flat loan growth
Elevated OPEX and Interest cost persist
Provision in Power and Telecom assets pressure asset quality

Marked deviations from estimates as earnings beat

Zenith Bank released its audited H1’17 result posting marked deviations from our expectations across most line items. Notably, following a 58% q/q rise in Gross Earnings in Q2’17 standalone, the top line rose 77% y/y to ₦380 billion for the H1’17 period – beating our ₦282 billion estimate.

Particularly, despite a 3% decline in loans and advances, Interest Income rose 45% y/y to ₦262 billion (Vetiva: ₦226 billion) – supported by a strong interest rate environment. In the same vein, Interest Expense spiked 127% y/y to ₦123 billion following a significant uptick in cost of funds (H1’17: 6.4% vs. H1’16: 3.2%) – coming in higher than our ₦89 billion estimate.

Consequently, Net Interest Margin moderated 40bps y/y to 7.7% (Q1’17: 8.7%). More conspicuously, Non-Interest Income rose to ₦118 billion (H1’16: ₦34 billion) – dwarfing our ₦55 billion estimate.

Particularly, the bank recorded an FX trading income of ₦46 billion – largely driven by income from forward contracts within the period. Also, T-bills trading income rose significantly to ₦18.8 billion from ₦2.2 billion in the prior year.

Fee and commission income growth however came in more modest, up to ₦38 billion from the ₦31 billion recorded in H1’16.

Amidst rising NPL ratio (H1’17: 4.3% vs. Q1’17: 3.2%), ZENITHBANK reported a significant rise in loan loss provision, up 198% y/y to ₦42 billion vs. our ₦16 billion estimate. According to management, the increase in impairment charge was largely driven by higher provisioning across the Power and Telecoms sectors.

We recall that ZENITHBANK had the highest exposure to Etisalat and believe the bank must have taken a conservative approach to make provision for a portion of their exposure to the telecoms company.

Despite this, Operating Income rose 47% y/y to ₦215 billion–22% ahead of our ₦176 billion estimate.

Surprisingly however, Operating Expense rose substantially in Q2’17, up 54% q/q – a trend management attributed to inflation and currency pressure despite a relatively more stable FX environment and a sticky downward inflationary trend within the period.

Notwithstanding, PAT rose to ₦75 billion – beating our ₦65 billion estimate.

We highlight that ZENITHBANK restated its prior year’s profit, expensing an AMCON levy of ₦9.4 billion which had previously been capitalized.

Hence H1’16 PAT was restated to ₦35.5 billion (Previous: ₦44.8 billion).

Overall, the Board declared an interim dividend of ₦0.25 per share – same as prior year and in line with our estimate.

Earnings revised higher on higher interest rates

We have updated our model to reflect the marked deviations across most line items. Whilst we cut our loan growth forecast for FY’17 to a mild 2% (Previous: 8%), we raise our Interest Income estimate to ₦535 billion (Previous: ₦452 billion) – supported by the strong interest rate environment.

Similarly, we raise our Interest Expense forecast for FY’17 to ₦245 billion (Previous: ₦178 billion), pressured by the elevated funding cost.

Also, following the outperformance in H1’17, we revise our Non-Interest Income higher to reflect the spike in FX income from forwards and futures transaction recorded in Q2’17. Despite the raise, we remain conservative about the persistence of this income line in the coming quarters and taper down the run rate for the year.

Driven by the impairment in asset quality observed over the second quarter, we double our loan loss provision expectation for FY’17 to ₦66 billion (H1’17: ₦42 billion) – translating to a cost of risk of 2.9%. Furthermore, in line with the trend observed in Q2’17, we raise our Operating Expense estimate to ₦254 billion (Previous: ₦191 billion). Overall, our PAT forecast is raised to ₦143 billion (Previous: ₦131 billion).

We revise our target price to ₦30.73 (Previous: ₦28.00)

Whilst we see the recent uptick in NPL ratio (H1’17: 4.3% vs. Q1’16: 3.2%) as a pressure point for earnings in the coming quarters following the restructuring of Etisalat’s loan exposure and the subsequent takeover, we highlight ZENITHBANK’s impressive liquidity and capital ratios.

With capital adequacy and liquidity ratios of 21% and 61% (regulatory benchmark of 15% and 30%) respectively, we believe the bank is well positioned to take advantage of the market opportunities.

Given the earnings outperformance, we revise our target price to ₦30.73 (Previous: ₦28.00). Although we have seen a strong rally in the stock in recent time (ytd return: 63%), we believe the bank remains largely undervalued. ZENITHBANK trades at FY’17 P/B: 1.0x and P/E: 5.8x vs. Tier I banks’ average P/B: 1.1x and P/E: 5.8x respectively.

Source: Vetiva Research

Economy

Food Concepts Return NASD OTC Exchange to Danger Zone

Published

9 hours ago

05/12/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Food Concepts Plc neutralized the gains recorded by three securities, returning the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange into the negative territory with a 0.27 per cent loss on Thursday, December 4.

Yesterday, the share price of the parent company of Chicken Republic and PieXpress declined by 34 Kobo to sell at N3.15 per unit compared with the previous day’s N3.49 per unit.

This shrank the market capitalisation of the OTC bourse by N5.72 billion to N2.136 billion from N2.142 trillion and weakened the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 9.57 points to 3,571.53 points from 3,581.10 points.

Business Post reports that Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 50 Kobo to N38.50 per share from N38.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained 29 Kobo to sell at N55.79 per unit versus N55.50 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc added 5 Kobo to close at N4.60 per share compared with Wednesday’s closing price of N4.55 per share.

Trading data indicated that the volume of securities recorded at the session surged by 6,885.3 per cent to 4.3 million units from the 61,570 units posted a day earlier, the value of securities increased by 10,301.7 per cent to N947.2 million from N3.3 million, and the number of deals went up by 146.7 per cent to 37 deals from the 15 deals achieved in the previous trading session.

At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 5.8 billion units for N16.4 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units worth N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units valued at N4.2 billion.

InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.

Economy

Investors Gain N97bn from Local Equity Market

Published

9 hours ago

05/12/2025

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

The upward trend witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in recent sessions continued on Thursday as it further improved by 0.10 per cent.

This was despite investor sentiment turning bearish after the local equity market ended with 23 price gainers and 28 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.

UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N88.00, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.54, Ecobank rose by 8.53 per cent to N36.90, and Coronation Insurance grew by 8.47 per cent to N2.56.

On the flip side, Ellah Lakes depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N13.14, Eunisell Nigeria also shed 10.00 per cent to finish at N72.90, Transcorp Hotels slipped by 9.95 per cent to N157.50, Omatek shrank by 9.23 per cent to N1.18, and Guinea Insurance dipped by 8.46 per cent to N1.19.

Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 152.28 points to 145,476.15 points from 145,323.87 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N97 billion to finish at N92.726 trillion compared with the previous day’s N92.629 trillion.

Customs Street was bubbling with activities on Thursday, though the trading volume and value slightly went down, according to data.

A total of 1.9 billion stocks worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 23,369 deals during the session versus the N2.3 billion valued at N21.0 billion traded in 21,513 deals a day earlier.

This showed that the number of deals increased by 8.63 per cent, the volume of transactions depleted by 17.39 per cent, and the value of trades decreased by 8.57 per cent.

For another trading day, eTranzact led the activity chart with 1.6 billion units sold for N6.4 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 31.0 million units worth N589.3 million, GTCO exchanged 28.3 million units valued at N2.5 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N1.6 billion, and Ecobank traded 21.9 million units worth N744.3 million.

Economy

Naira Loses 18 Kobo Against Dollar at Official Market, N5 at Black Market

Published

10 hours ago

05/12/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira marginally depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, December 4 amid renewed forex pressure associated with December.

At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian currency lost 0.01 per cent or 18 Kobo against the Dollar to close at N1,447.83/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.65/$1.

It was not a different scenario with the local currency in the same market segment against the Pound Sterling as it further shed N15.43 to sell for N1,930.97/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,925.08/£1 and declined against the Euro by 20 Kobo to finish at N1,688.74/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,688.54/€1.

Similarly, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback in the black market to quote at N1,465/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,460/$1 but closed flat against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter at N1,453/$1.

Fluctuations in trading range is expected to continue during the festive season as traders expect the Nigerian currency to be stable, supported by intervention s by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)in the face of steady dollar demand.

Support is also expected in coming weeks as seasonal activities, particularly the stylised “Detty December” festivities, will see inflows that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month, according to a new report.

“As the festive Detty December season intensifies, inbound travel, tourism spending, and diaspora inflows are expected to provide moderate support for FX liquidity,” analysts at the research unit of FMDA said in its latest monthly report for November.

Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.

Meanwhile, the crypto market was down as the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, likely rose in September—moving in the wrong direction. However, volatility indices show no signs of major turbulence.

If the actual figure matches estimates, it would mark 55 straight months of inflation above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. The sticky inflation would strengthen the hawkish policymakers, who are in favour of slower rate cuts.

Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.5 per cent to $2.08, Solana (SOL) went down by 3.8 per cent to $138.11, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.1 per cent to $83.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 2.5 per cent to $0.1463, Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.1 per cent to $0.4368, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.9 per cent to $91,975.45, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.9 per cent to $899.41, and Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,156.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.