Economy
Zenith Bank Plc: Earnings Beat as Forex Income Spike Dwarfs Huge Provision
By Vetiva Research
- High interest rate environment lifts top line despite flat loan growth
- Elevated OPEX and Interest cost persist
- Provision in Power and Telecom assets pressure asset quality
Marked deviations from estimates as earnings beat
Zenith Bank released its audited H1’17 result posting marked deviations from our expectations across most line items. Notably, following a 58% q/q rise in Gross Earnings in Q2’17 standalone, the top line rose 77% y/y to ₦380 billion for the H1’17 period – beating our ₦282 billion estimate.
Particularly, despite a 3% decline in loans and advances, Interest Income rose 45% y/y to ₦262 billion (Vetiva: ₦226 billion) – supported by a strong interest rate environment. In the same vein, Interest Expense spiked 127% y/y to ₦123 billion following a significant uptick in cost of funds (H1’17: 6.4% vs. H1’16: 3.2%) – coming in higher than our ₦89 billion estimate.
Consequently, Net Interest Margin moderated 40bps y/y to 7.7% (Q1’17: 8.7%). More conspicuously, Non-Interest Income rose to ₦118 billion (H1’16: ₦34 billion) – dwarfing our ₦55 billion estimate.
Particularly, the bank recorded an FX trading income of ₦46 billion – largely driven by income from forward contracts within the period. Also, T-bills trading income rose significantly to ₦18.8 billion from ₦2.2 billion in the prior year.
Fee and commission income growth however came in more modest, up to ₦38 billion from the ₦31 billion recorded in H1’16.
Amidst rising NPL ratio (H1’17: 4.3% vs. Q1’17: 3.2%), ZENITHBANK reported a significant rise in loan loss provision, up 198% y/y to ₦42 billion vs. our ₦16 billion estimate. According to management, the increase in impairment charge was largely driven by higher provisioning across the Power and Telecoms sectors.
We recall that ZENITHBANK had the highest exposure to Etisalat and believe the bank must have taken a conservative approach to make provision for a portion of their exposure to the telecoms company.
Despite this, Operating Income rose 47% y/y to ₦215 billion–22% ahead of our ₦176 billion estimate.
Surprisingly however, Operating Expense rose substantially in Q2’17, up 54% q/q – a trend management attributed to inflation and currency pressure despite a relatively more stable FX environment and a sticky downward inflationary trend within the period.
Notwithstanding, PAT rose to ₦75 billion – beating our ₦65 billion estimate.
We highlight that ZENITHBANK restated its prior year’s profit, expensing an AMCON levy of ₦9.4 billion which had previously been capitalized.
Hence H1’16 PAT was restated to ₦35.5 billion (Previous: ₦44.8 billion).
Overall, the Board declared an interim dividend of ₦0.25 per share – same as prior year and in line with our estimate.
Earnings revised higher on higher interest rates
We have updated our model to reflect the marked deviations across most line items. Whilst we cut our loan growth forecast for FY’17 to a mild 2% (Previous: 8%), we raise our Interest Income estimate to ₦535 billion (Previous: ₦452 billion) – supported by the strong interest rate environment.
Similarly, we raise our Interest Expense forecast for FY’17 to ₦245 billion (Previous: ₦178 billion), pressured by the elevated funding cost.
Also, following the outperformance in H1’17, we revise our Non-Interest Income higher to reflect the spike in FX income from forwards and futures transaction recorded in Q2’17. Despite the raise, we remain conservative about the persistence of this income line in the coming quarters and taper down the run rate for the year.
Driven by the impairment in asset quality observed over the second quarter, we double our loan loss provision expectation for FY’17 to ₦66 billion (H1’17: ₦42 billion) – translating to a cost of risk of 2.9%. Furthermore, in line with the trend observed in Q2’17, we raise our Operating Expense estimate to ₦254 billion (Previous: ₦191 billion). Overall, our PAT forecast is raised to ₦143 billion (Previous: ₦131 billion).
We revise our target price to ₦30.73 (Previous: ₦28.00)
Whilst we see the recent uptick in NPL ratio (H1’17: 4.3% vs. Q1’16: 3.2%) as a pressure point for earnings in the coming quarters following the restructuring of Etisalat’s loan exposure and the subsequent takeover, we highlight ZENITHBANK’s impressive liquidity and capital ratios.
With capital adequacy and liquidity ratios of 21% and 61% (regulatory benchmark of 15% and 30%) respectively, we believe the bank is well positioned to take advantage of the market opportunities.
Given the earnings outperformance, we revise our target price to ₦30.73 (Previous: ₦28.00). Although we have seen a strong rally in the stock in recent time (ytd return: 63%), we believe the bank remains largely undervalued. ZENITHBANK trades at FY’17 P/B: 1.0x and P/E: 5.8x vs. Tier I banks’ average P/B: 1.1x and P/E: 5.8x respectively.
Source: Vetiva Research
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has said the passage of the National Insurance Regulatory Commission Bill by the Senate will unlock greater investment in Nigeria by strengthening regulatory oversight, enhancing investor confidence and creating a more transparent and accountable insurance industry.
Describing the development as a significant milestone in efforts to strengthen the regulatory framework of Nigeria’s insurance industry, the commission particularly praised the leadership of the Senate and the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, Mr Adetokunbo Mukail Abiru, for their roles in securing the successful passage of the Bill in the Red Chamber.
According to NAICOM, the proposed legislation will enhance regulatory oversight, improve transparency and accountability, and boost public confidence in the insurance sector.
The commission said the bill is expected to attract greater investment into the industry, promote sustainable growth, and deliver benefits to policyholders, insurance operators, and the wider economy.
NAICOM also noted that the Senate’s commitment to advancing reforms in the insurance sector would support the modernisation of insurance regulation and strengthen financial inclusion across the country.
It added that the passage of the Bill reflects the legislature’s resolve to protect the interests of citizens while promoting the stability of Nigeria’s financial system.
The Commission reaffirmed its readiness to ensure the effective implementation of the new legal framework once the Bill receives presidential assent, pledging continued collaboration with industry stakeholders to position the insurance sector as a key driver of national economic development.
Earlier this week, the Senate passed the much-anticipated bill to repeal and re-enact the law establishing the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), paving the way for the regulatory agency to be renamed the Insurance Regulatory Commission (IRC).
The legislation, titled the Insurance Regulatory Commission (Establishment) Bill, 2026, was passed after the Senate considered and adopted the report of its committee on banking, insurance and other financial institutions.
According to lawmakers, the outgoing National Insurance Commission Act 1997 is outdated and does not adequately address the emerging economic growth, needs and development of the country’s insurance business and projections.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
About $2.5 billion has been raised by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE (DPRP) from its private equity placement.
The exercise, Business Post learned, attracted broad participation from international and African institutional investors, sovereign-related investment vehicles, development finance institutions, strategic partners, and individual investors.
Notable participants included the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and India Infra Buildco, an investment vehicle facilitated by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), reflecting deep and diversified confidence in DPRP’s long-term prospects.
The transaction is believed to be Africa’s largest publicly disclosed primary equity private placement, marking a significant milestone in the history of the organisation and demonstrating strong investor confidence in the refinery’s long-term growth strategy, including raising its current capacity from 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.
The capital raise is the first equity funding round involving external investors beyond the company’s legacy shareholder base, underscoring the growing attractiveness of DPRP as a world-class energy and industrial enterprise. The strong investor response further reinforces confidence in the company’s vision and its ability to deliver sustainable value over the long term.
The proceeds from the placement will be deployed to support the continued expansion of the refinery and petrochemical complex, strengthen the company’s capital structure, and enhance financial flexibility to pursue future growth opportunities.
With the successful completion of the placement, DPRP is well-positioned to accelerate its long-term growth strategy while strengthening Africa’s energy security through world-scale refining and petrochemical capacity.
“This transaction represents a strategic step to deepen and further institutionalise the Enterprise’s shareholder base, while raising capital to complement our internal cash flows and external funding as DPRP advances its expansion agenda.
“It also demonstrates our unwavering commitment to developing Africa’s refining and petrochemical capacity, reducing dependence on imported petroleum products and strengthening the continent’s energy security,” the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited and Chairman of DPRP, Mr Aliko Dangote, stated.
Also, the chief executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Mr David Bird, said the overwhelming investor response validates the company’s operational performance and growth outlook.
“The exceptional demand we witnessed is a testament to our operational excellence, execution capability and the confidence investors have in DPRP’s leadership and future potential,” he remarked.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Shareholders of Transcorp Plc should expect their phones to buzz with bank alerts very soon, as the board has proposed the payment of an interim dividend of 40 Kobo per share for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year.
The company announced the cash reward payment to investors in the unaudited financial statements submitted to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The interim dividend would be paid on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, subject to appropriate withholding tax deduction and to shareholders whose names appear in the Register of Members as of the close of business on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
Analysis of the results showed that the conglomerate delivered a strong revenue and profit performance, with improved margins and ratios notwithstanding challenges in the operating environment.
The performance was driven by the organisation’s disciplined cost management and operational efficiency, underpinned by a resilient business strategy and solid corporate governance ethos.
In the period under review, the power sector was impacted by gas supply constraints, as well as grid-related challenges, which saw a reduction in the overall power supply in the country.
Similarly, the hospitality business continues to innovate and leverage its assets to deliver superior service excellence.
These challenges impacted Transcorp’s earnings, which contracted to N241.5 billion in the first half of this year from N279.0 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, while profit after tax moderated to N54.4 billion from N65.2 billion in H1 2025.
“These results reflect the quality of the underlying business and resilience of the group’s earnings. Despite a lower revenue base arising from sector-wide power infrastructure constraints, we expanded our profit-before-tax margin to 31.4 per cent, from 30.7 per cent in the prior period, a direct result of disciplined cost optimisation and operational efficiency across our businesses.
“Our financial position remains strong, with a robust equity base which grew to N367.8 billion by half-year 2026. Our strength is hinged on the diversified earnings capability from key sectors, including the hospitality business, which grew its profit after tax by 21 per cent. This financial foundation gives us the confidence to protect and grow long-term value for our shareholders as operating conditions normalise,” the Chief Financial Officer of Transcorp, Mr Festus Izevbizua, stated.
Also, the chief executive of the firm, Mr Owen Omogiafo, said, “Despite disruptions to power transmission infrastructure and a challenging macroeconomic environment, Transcorp delivered a strong profit and an even stronger balance sheet, a reflection of our operational discipline and efficiency.
“At Transcorp Group, our operations are driven by our purpose to improve lives and transform Africa. We continue to create impact in the sectors that matter most to Nigeria’s future, and that same conviction continues to guide us through every phase of the cycle.
“Despite the constrained grid infrastructure seen in the first half of the year, we forged ahead, engaging with strategic partners to deliver much-needed power to Nigerians.
“Through our 5,000-capacity, multi-purpose event facility, Transcorp Centre, and our flagship 1,000-key Transcorp Hilton Abuja, we have continued to make the Federal Capital Territory the preferred location for business and leisure.
“Our strategy is clear, our balance sheet is robust, and our confidence in the value we are creating for our shareholders remains firm.”
