Feature/OPED

Beyond Recession: Towards A Resilient Economy

Published

9 years ago

21/01/2017

Modupe Gbadeyanka

By Atedo Peterside

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,

As part of their 14th Daily Trust Dialogue, the management of Daily Trust requested a presentation from me on “BEYOND RECESSION: TOWARDS A RESILIENT ECONOMY”. My focus will be on “Towards a resilient economy”, because virtually all the actions and policies that are required to help build a resilient economy are the exact same ones that will naturally take Nigeria well beyond today’s economic recession and unto a path of rapid and sustainable economic growth. If you aim for the skies you might end up at the ceiling. Likewise, if you do what is necessary to achieve rapid economic growth, then the chances are that you will at least attain modest growth, even where some plans fail.

My honest summation is that, even if we start today to embrace holistic, creative, sincere and reform-minded economic policies, the “animal spirits” that these measures unleash will harness the creative and entrepreneurial energies of our people once again and quickly place us firmly on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is doing some things right, such as the effort to curb overhead expenditures and to be more frugal than past administrations, but then they are also doing many things wrong. There is a reluctance to completely break from the past and embrace significant economic reforms, even when our present predicament clearly warrants same. If we do not act now or if we do not act quickly, we may find our economy needlessly mired in a hopeless situation where the citizenry might not witness an increase in income per capita (living standards) for 6 to 8 years.

The search for an economic policy direction must end now because we are facing an economic crisis. A crisis is an inflection point. It is that point when multiple outcomes become possible. When you superimpose our demanding political calendar, which requires Presidential elections in a little over two years, it becomes clear that 2017 represents the last full calendar year that this administration has within which it must embrace major economic reforms, if we expect to still attain many of the more palatable economic outcomes. It is no use arguing over who or what caused the economic recession (-2% growth) and high inflation rate (over 18.5% p.a.) that we are currently facing; far better to focus on what we need to do to get us out of this sorry state.

There are several units within the FGN that are carrying out meaningful but disparate actions that solve many fringe economic problems. Various actors appear to be working in “silos” solving fringe problems. What appears to be still missing is a bold, holistic and audacious effort to harmonize fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro-prudential policies in a bold and concerted manner. Very few people want to take on the “big gorilla” in the room. They prefer to scratch around the fringes or work in silos, whilst almost accepting a 0.1% growth target as the achievement to celebrate because it might signify the end of a “so called technical recession”. That is why the impact of the FGN’s Economic Management Team is not being felt. A corollary of this proposition is that many people are simply minding their own business. Because they fear for their jobs, they are not interested in tackling their colleagues whose actions are negating and/or eliminating the most positive outcomes that the Government owes the electorate. Meanwhile, the populace is yearning for transformative economic changes.

I know that there are those who will criticize me for saying that the FGN’s economic policy direction remains unclear. My response to them is that the most significant economic reforms embraced so far by FGN came about rather reluctantly i.e. by FGN hanging on to an untenable position until it eventually disentangled itself or got overpowered by its own internal contradictions. We saw this with petrol prices and also the devaluation of the naira. When these “reforms” came, they arrived in the form of half-measures. Thus, we stopped short of both petrol price deregulation and opted instead for a limited price fix that was clearly unsustainable. We equally stopped short of adopting truly market-determined exchange rates and instead embraced a “fudge” that spewed widely divergent multiple exchange rates. Half measures typically bring some pain, but often fail (as in this case) to yield any lasting gain.

Determined to help force through the required soul-searching by FGN’s Economic Management Team, the rest of this paper will discuss ELEVEN major policy actions/inactions which the FGN and the ruling political party should consider. My approach is holistic. I am aware that some of these measures might require a bipartisan consensus. We must shake off the indolent mindset that leads us to believe that all Constitutional changes are taboo. Or the mindset that shirks any economic action that is out of the ordinary. Accordingly, I seek to draw attention to the following eleven items:-

1) The Central Bank of Nigeria should accept that it’s foreign exchange and demand management policies have failed. The more restrictions they have placed on forex repatriation the less likely it has become that badly needed forex inflows from portfolio investors, foreign direct investors and Nigerians will pick up. CBN has inadvertently created a siege mentality, thereby making privileged access to its forex allocations, which are reserved largely for the politically well-connected, the best investment game in town. Furthermore, the directive to banks to allocate 60% of forex to manufacturers who account for only 10% of GDP has exacerbated an already bad supply situation. 40% is much too small to accommodate the rest of the economy and so all other sectors have been crippled, including the Service sector which accounts for over 50% of GDP. This has unleashed panic thereby sending the parallel market to the high heavens. Forex inflows disappeared partly because of the uncertainty surrounding the ability to repatriate interest/dividends through an overly restrictive 40% window. There is nothing magical about 60% or 40%. It has no “scientific” basis. Meanwhile it has huge adverse distortionary implications on the supply side. The end result has been our mind-boggling and widely divergent multiple exchange rates which have spooked investors who have taken fright and also taken flight. Sadly, we have effectively “shot ourselves in the foot” by taking unsustainable actions that crippled both forex inflows and the Service sector, whilst favouring even those manufacturers who own “zombie” industries that are horribly import-dependent;

2) Linked to 1) above is the failure to reach some accommodation with Niger Delta militants. Three previous administrations (the preceding three) ended up brokering peace deals. A failure by FGN to broker a peace deal has cost the nation over $6 billion per annum. Dithering over amnesty payments promised by a previous administration was ill-advised because Government is a continuum. The FGN should urgently pursue high-powered negotiations which should be brokered by persons with a healthy track record in this activity and the ancillary pipeline protection business. In the longer term, I favour a constitutional amendment that reserves a one per cent royalty payment to immediate host communities on ALL mining and mineral producing activity (including limestone, oil, precious stones etc.). Communities will then be well incentivized to keep production activity going. This will give them some significant “skin in the game”, which is preferable to a long-term reliance on amnesty payments which constitute a moral hazard. A 13% derivation payment to a possibly “unaccountable and distant” State 14th Daily Trust Dialogue – Thursday 19th January 2017 2 Governor is not anywhere as effective as a 1% royalty payment to a host community;

3) We should simultaneously embark upon some asset sales which improve long-term efficiency and will yield foreign currency. I argued in my 01 October, 2016 published Letter to my Countrymen that the Federal Government share of the major Oil Joint Ventures (IOCs) should be sold down to 40% or no more than 49%. This would represent a replica of the highly successful Nigeria LNG (NLNG) model that provides a healthy dividend stream for the Government. If it is good for NLNG, then it should be good for the IOCs too. I envisage that the main obstacle here will be our value-destructive NNPC who might be reluctant to become a minority shareholder (40-49%). The secret behind NLNG’s success is that NNPC was “reduced” to taking a minority shareholding in this world-class investment project. Asset sales can yield $15-20 billion over the course of the next two years if planned carefully;

4) We urgently need to deregulate the entire downstream petroleum sector and also privatise NNPC’s three refineries + depots and pipelines and domestic gas;

5) Our civil/public service is still bloated, corrupt and inefficient and has become the excuse for a privileged 2% of the population to consume close to 60-70% of the annual budget via the recurrent expenditure vote. What is left over for the capital vote is insufficient to help finance social and physical infrastructure. Methinks mass redundancies are now inevitable, along with the implementation of an even bolder Orosanye Report because the nation is now stuck with a public service and legislators that we could only afford at $100 per barrel oil prices;

6) Less than 25% of our 36 States are economically viable. In the early 1960s, when Sir Ahmadu Bello wanted to build roads in the old Northern Region, he set aside salaries for a Works Minister (also a Parliamentarian) a Permanent Secretary and a lean Ministry of Works after which all the money set aside for roads was used in actually building roads. Today, overheads associated with 19 Commissioners and 19 Permanent Secretaries and their privileged workers consume virtually all the funds set aside for roads, leaving little or nothing left over for actually building State Government roads in most of the North. The obvious answer is political restructuring, as unpalatable as it may sound to some. For example, in terms of zonal overhead spending, we “expanded” the North from one regional government to 19 States and now need to “bring it down” to a more affordable 3 zones by retaining some overheads at the zonal level instead of spreading same over 19 states. We should keep an open mind towards this political restructuring argument because it is not even true that homogeneity within a State or zone necessarily guarantees peace. Somalia is homogenous and yet it is probably the closest thing there is today globally to a failed State. Conversely, there are communities, States and nations around the world which are heterogeneous, but which are living peacefully together;

7) To help overcome, the social and physical infrastructure deficit, we need to embark upon the restructuring canvassed in 5) and 6) above, whilst also embracing the private sector as the engine of growth and a capable partner/financier of infrastructural development. The Power and Transportation sectors are crying for more and not less privatisation. The logic of the power sector reforms was built around the adoption of cost-reflective tariffs, which we have since thrown out of the window. The transmission sector and gas supply difficulties are some of the other weak links in the power value chain;

8) A dysfunctional legal system is an impediment to the rapid growth of a modern economy. The Chief Justice of the Federation must “buy into” and spearhead radical reform of our legal system;

9) The anticorruption crusade will only complement the positive changes envisaged above if the Government itself respects the rule of law and obeys the Courts. We should err on the side of 14th Daily Trust Dialogue – Thursday 19th January 2017 3 extending the “benefit of the doubt” to accused persons whenever allegations are unsubstantiated or cannot be proven beyond reasonable doubt. This need not signify the end of the anticorruption crusade because there will always be enough cases which can be proven beyond reasonable doubt. It is better to let four people who might be guilty go free than to convict one innocent man. The latter drains all the energy out of the anticorruption crusade and also destroys business confidence;

10) Restoring business confidence should be the primary preoccupation guiding virtually every statement by public officers. This calls for a paradigm shift because the current preoccupation is for every Minister, Governor, Regulator or overzealous official to threaten investors with closure, bankruptcy, fines or seizure of their goods. Frightened businessmen (local or foreign) will not invest. We should be wooing investors instead of threatening them;

11) The Federal Government should immediately appoint directors to the boards of every regulatory agency. Keeping a Lone Wolf at the head of a regulatory agency is dangerous and therefore detrimental to business confidence. The important lesson from the recent Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria imbroglio is that a single rogue regulator can hold the entire system to ransom, help destroy business confidence and hamper economic growth. This only became possible because the checks and balances which our laws envisaged, through the appointment of Boards, Council members or Commissioners, were not in place.

CONCLUSION

Our economy is underperforming because, amongst other things, it is caught up in a low foreign exchange trap. Borrowing alone is not and can never be a panacea. Indeed, borrowing without instituting necessary and badly needed economic and structural reforms is akin to suicide. Those who are canvassing for more foreign debt simply because our debt/GDP ratio is low are overlooking the fact that our debt service ratios are already high. Our debt service ratios are high because our Tax/GDP ratio at 6% is exceedingly poor. It will require a few years of concerted action to move economic agents from the informal sector to the formal sector in a significant way before our tax/GDP ratio rises significantly. Relying on debt alone to get us out of the present low foreign exchange trap is therefore a high risk strategy. I consider it to be ill-advised. That is why I also emphasise 2) and 3) above. They help to improve the forex supply situation, without burdening our already high debt service ratios. If care is not taken, our deteriorating economy might take us on the “road to Venezuela or Zimbabwe”. Nigerians take pride in arguing that the Lord loves us and so he always intervenes by bringing us back from the precipice in the nick of time. I do not doubt that. What I truly believe is that the Lord intervenes through people. After the unbridled insults that were heaped on the Emir of Kano and a few others who dared to tell the Government the truth about the parlous state of our economy, the easiest path for me would have been to keep quiet or to simply blame speculators, detractors or past regimes. If I did that then the attack dogs would have won. NO, I am not about to abandon my right to free speech on account of some insincere sycophants. I speak because I want my country to improve. So help me God.

Atedo N A Peterside CON is the President & Founder of ANAP Foundation and is also the Chairman of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc and Cadbury Nigeria Plc Twitter @AtedoPeterside

Feature/OPED

How AI Levels the Playing Field for SMEs

Published

2 days ago

17/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Linda Saunders

Intro: In many small businesses, the owner often starts out as the bookkeeper, the customer-service desk, the IT technician and the person who steps in when a delivery goes wrong. With so many balls up in the air – and such little room for error – one dropped ball can derail the entire day and trigger a chain of problems that’s hard to recover from. Unlike larger companies that have the luxury of spreading the load across dedicated teams and systems, SMEs carry it all on a few shoulders.

South Africa’s SME sector carries significant weight, contributing around 19% of GDP and a third of formal employment, according to the latest available Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) 2024 review. That is causing persistent constraints, including tight margins, erratic demand, high administrative load, and limited internal capacity.

This is not unique to South Africa. Many smaller businesses across the continent still rely on manual processes. It is common to find sales records kept separately from customer notes, or inventory data that is updated only occasionally. The result is slow turnaround times, duplicated effort and a lack of visibility across the business. Given that SMEs have such a huge influence on national economies, accounting for over 90% of all businesses, between 20-40% of GDP in some African countries, and a major source of employment, providing around 80% of jobs, these operational constraints have a broad impact on economies.

What has changed in recent years is that digital tools once seen as the preserve of larger companies have become more attainable for smaller operators. They do not remove the structural challenges SMEs face, but they can ease the load. Better systems do not replace judgement, experience or customer relationships; they simply give small companies more room to work with.

Cloud-based systems, automation and integrated customer-management tools have become more affordable and easier to deploy. They do not remove the structural pressures facing small businesses, but they can ease the operational load and create more space for productive work.

Doing more with the teams SMEs already have

Small teams often end up wearing several hats. One person might take customer calls, update stock records, handle service issues and manage follow-ups. When demand rises, these manual processes become harder to sustain. Local surveys regularly point to this strain, showing that smaller companies spend significant portions of the week on paperwork, compliance and routine administrative tasks – work that adds little value but cannot be ignored.

This is where automation is proving useful. Routine tasks such as onboarding new customers, checking documents, routing queries to the right person, logging interactions and sending follow-ups can now run quietly in the background. In larger companies, whole departments handle this work. In small businesses, the same burden has traditionally fallen on one or two people. When these processes run reliably without constant attention, a business with 10 employees can manage busier periods without rushed outsourcing or slipping service standards.

The point is not to replace staff, but to reduce the operational drag that limits what small teams can deliver. Structured workflows give SMEs a level of steadiness they have rarely had the time or money to build themselves.

Using better data to make better decisions

A second constraint facing SMEs is disorganised information. When customer details are lost in email, sales notes in chat groups, stock figures in spreadsheets and queries in separate systems, decisions depend on whatever information happens to be at hand. Forecasting becomes guesswork, and early warning signs are easy to miss.

Putting all this information in a single place changes the quality of decision-making. When sales, service and stock data can be viewed together, patterns become easier to spot: which products are moving, which customers are becoming less active, where delays tend to occur, and which periods consistently drive higher demand.

Importantly, SMEs do not need corporate analytics teams for this. Modern CRM platforms can organise information automatically and surface basic trends. For retailers preparing for 2026, this can help avoid over – or under – stocking. For service businesses, it can highlight customers who may be at risk of leaving, prompting earlier intervention. In competitive markets, having clearer information is a practical advantage.

Building a foundation before the pressure arrives

Rapid growth can be as destabilising for SMEs as an economic downturn. When orders increase, manual processes quickly reach their limit. Errors are more likely, staff become overwhelmed and the customer experience suffers. Many small businesses only upgrade their systems once these problems appear, by which time the cost, both financial and reputational, is already significant.

Putting basic workflow tools and a unified customer record in place early provides a useful buffer. Tasks follow the same steps every time, reducing inconsistency. Customers reach the right person more quickly. Staff spend less time checking or re-entering information and more time on work that matters. These small operational gains compound over time, especially during busy periods.

This is not about chasing every new technology. It is about avoiding a common pattern in the SME sector: when demand rises, systems buckle, and growth becomes more difficult.

Confidence matters as much as capability

Smaller companies understandably worry about risk when adopting new systems. Data protection, monitoring, and compliance can feel daunting without an IT department. The advantage of modern platforms is that many of these protections, like encryption, audit trails, and event monitoring, are built in. Transparent design also helps SMEs understand how automated decisions are made and how customer data is handled.

This reassurance is important because SMEs should not have to choose between improving their operations and protecting their customers’ information.

2026 will reward readiness

Technology will not replace the qualities that give SMEs their edge: personal service, flexibility, and the ability to respond quickly to customer needs. What it can do is relieve the administrative load that prevents those strengths from being fully used.

SMEs that invest in simple automation and better data practices now will enter 2026 with greater capacity and clearer insight. They won’t be competing with larger companies by matching their resources, but by removing the disadvantages that have traditionally held them back.

In the year ahead, the most competitive businesses will not be the biggest; they’ll be the ones that prepared early for the year ahead.

Linda Saunders is the Country Manager & Senior Director Solution Engineering for Africa at Salesforce

Feature/OPED

Why Africa Requires Homegrown Trade Finance to Boost Economic Integration

Published

2 days ago

16/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Cyprian Rono

Africa’s quest to trade with itself has never been more urgent. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gaining momentum, governments are working to deepen intra-African commerce. The idea of “One African Market” is no longer aspirational; it is emerging as a strategic pathway for economic growth, job creation, and industrial competitiveness. Yet even as infrastructure and regulatory reforms advance, one fundamental question remains; how will Africa finance its cross-border trade, across markets with diverse currencies, regulations, and standards?

Today, only 15 to 18 percent of Africa’s internal trade happens within the continent, compared to 68 percent in Europe and 59 percent in Asia. Closing this gap is essential if AfCFTA is to deliver prosperity to Africa’s 1.3 billion people.

A major constraint is the continent’s huge trade finance deficit, which exceeds USD 81 billion annually, according to the African Development Bank. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which provide more than 80 percent of the continent’s jobs, are the most affected. Many struggle with insufficient collateral, stringent risk profiling and compliance requirements that mirror international banking standards rather than the realities of African business.

To build integrated value chains, exporters and importers must operate within trusted, predictable, and interconnected financial systems. This requires strong pan-African financial institutions with both local knowledge and continental reach.

Homegrown trade finance is therefore indispensable. Pan-African banks combine deep domestic roots with extensive regional reach, making them the most credible engines for financing trade integration. By retaining financial activity within the continent, homegrown lenders reduce exposure to external shocks and keep liquidity circulating locally. They also strengthen existing regional payment infrastructure such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), developed by the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and backed by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, enabling faster, cheaper and seamless cross-border payments across the continent.

Digital transformation amplifies this advantage. Real-time payments, seamless Know-Your-Customer (KYC) verification, automated credit scoring and consistent service delivery across markets are essential for intra-African trade. Institutions such as Ecobank, operating in 34 African countries with integrated core banking systems, demonstrate how such digital ecosystems can enable continent-wide commerce.

Platforms such as Ecobank’s Omni, Rapidtransfer and RapidCollect, together with digital account-opening services, make it much easier for traders to operate across borders. Rapidtransfer enables instant, secure payments across Ecobank’s 34-country network, reducing delays in regional trade, while RapidCollect gives cross-border enterprises the ability to receive payments from multiple African countries into a single account with real-time confirmation and automated reconciliation. Together, these solutions create an integrated digital ecosystem that lowers friction, accelerates payments, and strengthens intra-African commerce.

Trust, however, remains a significant barrier. Cross-border commerce depends on the confidence that partners will honour contracts, deliver goods as promised, pay on time, and present authentic documentation. Traders often lack reliable information on potential partners, operate under different regulatory regimes, and exchange documents that are difficult to verify across borders. This heightens the risk of fraud, non-payment, and contractual disputes, discouraging businesss from expanding beyond familiar markets.

Technology is closing this trust gap. Artificial Intelligence enables lenders to assess risk using alternative data for SMEs without formal credit histories. Distributed ledger tools make shipping documents, certificates of origin, and inspection reports tamper-proof. In addition, supply-chain visibility platforms enable real-time tracking of goods and cross-border digital KYC ensures that both buyers and sellers are verified before any transaction occurs.

Ecobank’s Single Trade Hub embodies this trust infrastructure by offering a secure digital marketplace where buyers and sellers can trade with confidence, even in markets where no prior relationships exist. The platform’s Trade Intelligence suite provides customers instant access to market data from customs information and product classification tools across 133 countries.

Through its unique features such as the classification of best import/export markets, over 25,000 market and industry reports, customs duty calculators, and local and universal customs classification codes, businesses can accurately assess market opportunities, anticipate trends, reduce compliance risks, and optimise supply chains, ultimately helping them compete and grow in regional and global markets.

SMEs need more than financing. Many operate in cash-heavy cycles where suppliers and logistics providers require upfront payment. Lenders can support these businesses with advisory services, business intelligence, compliance guidance, and platforms for secure partner verification, contract negotiation, and secure settlement of payments. Trade fairs, industry forums, and partnerships with chambers of commerce further build the trust networks needed for cross-border trade.

Ultimately, Africa’s path toward meaningful trade integration begins with financial integration. AfCFTA’s promise will only be realised when enterprises can trade with confidence, knowing that payments will be honoured, partners verified, and disputes resolved. This requires collaboration between banks, regulators, and trade institutions, alongside harmonised financial regulations, interoperable payment systems, and continent-wide verification networks.

Africa can no longer rely on external actors to finance its trade. Its economic transformation depends on strong, trusted, and digitally enabled African financial institutions that understand Africa’s unique risks and opportunities. By building an African-led trade finance ecosystem, the continent can unlock liquidity, reduce dependence on external currencies, empower SMEs, and retain more value locally. Africa’s trade revolution will accelerate when its financing is driven by African institutions, African systems, and African ambition.

Cyprian Rono is the Director of Corporate and Investment Banking for Kenya and EAC at Ecobank Kenya

Feature/OPED

Tax Reform or Financial Exclusion? The Trouble with Mandatory TINs

Published

3 days ago

16/12/2025

Business Post Contributor

By Blaise Udunze

It is not only questionable but an aberration that a nation where over 38million Nigerians remain financially excluded, where trust in institutions is fragile, and where citizens are pressured under the weight of rising living costs, the use of Tax Identification Number (TIN) has been specified as the only option for their bank accounts operation from January 1, 2026 by the Federal Government of Nigeria.

In practice, the policy spearheaded by Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, is rooted in the Nigerian Tax Administration Act (NTAA), and the intention can be understood in the areas of improving tax compliance, widening the tax net, and formalizing economic activities. But in practice, the directive risks becoming yet another well-meaning reform that punishes the wrong people, disrupts financial inclusiveness, and potentially destabilises an already stressed economy.

Yes, Nigeria needs tax reforms. Yes, the country must broaden its tax base. And yes, public revenues must increase to address fiscal pressures.

But compelling citizens to obtain TINs as a condition for operating bank accounts is the wrong tool for the right objective.

Below are five core arguments against the directive, and sustainable alternatives that actually strengthen tax compliance without endangering banking access or punishing informal earners.

The Directive Risks Deepening Financial Exclusion

Nigeria still struggles with financial inclusion. According to several official assessments, over 38 million adults remain outside the formal financial system. Many of them operate small, irregular businesses, survive through subsistence earnings, or depend on cash-based livelihoods.

The Federal Government’s compulsory TIN-for-bank-accounts policy is built on the assumption that every banked Nigerian is structured, organised, and tax-ready. This is false.

For instance, the rural market woman with N30,000 in rotating savings, the okada rider who deposits cash once a week, the petty trader using a mobile POS agent account, the retiring pensioner managing a small monthly income, and the migrant worker sends small remittances to their family. These are not tax evaders; they are survivalists.

Most operate bank accounts not because they run formal businesses, but because those accounts are essential to modern financial life: receiving transfers, accessing loans, participating in digital commerce, saving against emergencies, and avoiding the risks of moving cash in insecure environments.

By creating an additional bureaucratic barrier, the directive risks pushing millions back into a cash-dominant shadow economy, precisely the opposite outcome of what Nigeria’s financial-sector reforms are trying to achieve.

Bank Accounts Are Not Proof of Taxable Income

The NTAA clarifies that the TIN requirement applies only to taxable persons, individuals engaged in trade, employment, or income-generating activities.

But herein lies the problem: banks cannot determine who is “taxable” and who is not. Banks only see deposits and withdrawals. They do not audit the source or consistency of income. They are not tax authorities.

A student may run a small online clothing resale gig. A retiree may occasionally rent out farmland.

A dependent may receive cash support from a relative abroad. A job seeker may get intermittent gifts from family.

Who decides which of these scenarios qualifies as taxable? Banks? FIRS? Or will citizens be expected to self-declare under threat of account restrictions?

The result will be confusion, over-compliance, and mass panic with banks indiscriminately demanding TINs from everyone to avoid regulatory penalties.

This not only contradicts the spirit of the law but also exposes ordinary Nigerians to harassment and arbitrary compliance requirements.

The Policy Could Trigger Disruption, Panic Withdrawals, and Cash Hoarding

Whenever Nigerians perceive threats to their access to funds, the natural reaction is withdrawal and hoarding. We saw it during:

– the 2023 Naira redesign crisis,

– the 2016 TSA-bank consolidation tightening, and multiple periods of financial instability.

Telling citizens that bank accounts may face “operational restrictions” if they do not obtain a TIN creates a predictable behavioural response: people will rush to withdraw money.

This would be disastrous for a banking system already pressured by:

– high interest rates,

– inflation eroding deposits,

– rising loan defaults, and

– declining public trust.

Any government policy that unintentionally creates an incentive for citizens to flee the formal banking system is counterproductive.

The TIN Requirement Will Become a Bureaucratic Nightmare

Even if millions of Nigerians want to comply, the system is not ready. Nigeria’s administrative infrastructure does not have the capacity to process tens of millions of TIN registrations within months without:

– long queues,

– delays,

– data mismatches,

– duplicate records, and

– systemic errors.

The National Identity Number (NIN)-SIM registration experience is a painful reminder of what happens when ambitious policy meets weak execution capacity.

– Citizens spent months in overcrowded enrolment centres.

– Millions were blocked from services.

– Data inconsistencies persisted.

– The economy suffered productivity losses.

If Nigeria could not seamlessly synchronise NIN and SIM data, how will it synchronise NIN, BVN, and TIN at a national scale without dislocation?

Forcing TIN Adoption Ignores the Real Problem: Nigeria’s Broken Tax Culture

The Federal Government’s real challenge is not that citizens lack TINs, but that they lack trust in how taxes are used.

A government cannot widen the tax net when:

– tax leakages remain widespread,

– citizens feel services do not match taxation,

– corruption perceptions are high,

– government spending lacks transparency, and

– taxpayers do not feel seen, heard, or valued.

Coercion does not build a tax culture. Engagement does. Policy does not create legitimacy. Accountability does.

If the Federal Government wants Nigerians to freely participate in the tax system, it must earn legitimacy first, not mandate compliance through financial restrictions.

What the Government Should Do Instead: A Smarter Path to Tax Reform

Instead of enforcing a policy that may backfire economically and socially, the Federal Government can adopt four smarter, people-centred alternatives.

– Automatic TIN Issuance Linked to NIN and BVN

Rather than forcing Nigerians to apply manually, the government should:

auto-generate TINs for all existing BVN/NIN holders,
send the TINs via SMS, email, and bank alerts,
allow self-activation only when needed for tax obligations.

This eliminates queues, delays, and confusion.

– Build a Voluntary Tax Compliance Culture Through Transparency and Incentives

Tax morale improves when citizens see value. Government should:

publish annual audited reports of tax revenue use,
incentivise compliant taxpayers with benefits (priority access to government grants, credit scoring, etc.),
simplify tax filings for small businesses.

People comply more when they feel respected, not coerced.

– Target High-Value Tax Evaders, Not Low-Income Account Holders

Nigeria’s real tax leakages come from:

large corporations shifting profits,
politically exposed persons,
illicit financial flows,
multinational tax avoidance strategies,
the informal “big money” class operating outside the banking system.

Instead of threatening small depositors, the government should strengthen:

FIRS intelligence and investigation units,
inter-agency data integration (CAC, Customs, Immigration),
beneficial ownership transparency enforcement.

The fight against tax evasion should focus on those hiding billions, not those depositing thousands.

– Strengthen Digital Tax Platforms for Easy Self-Registration and Compliance

If tax registration becomes as easy as opening a social media account, compliance will rise naturally. The government should build:

a mobile-first tax app,
simplified online TIN retrieval,
one-click tax filing for gig workers and small traders.

Digital convenience can achieve what regulatory coercion cannot.

Reform Should Not Punish the Public

No doubt, tax reforms are needed urgently, but they must come with a human face, an intelligent, equitable, and aligned with the realities of ordinary Nigerians.

The TIN-for-bank-accounts policy, while well-intentioned, risks undermining financial inclusion, triggering economic instability, and imposing unnecessary burdens on millions who are not tax evaders but survival-based earners.

Good tax policy is built on trust, not fear. On transparency, not threats. On civic legitimacy, not administrative compulsion.

If the Federal Government truly wants to modernise Nigeria’s tax system, it must focus not on restricting citizens’ access to their own money, but on: