Connect with us

Feature/OPED

Beyond Recession: Towards A Resilient Economy

Published

on

By Atedo Peterside

Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,

As part of their 14th Daily Trust Dialogue, the management of Daily Trust requested a presentation from me on “BEYOND RECESSION: TOWARDS A RESILIENT ECONOMY”. My focus will be on “Towards a resilient economy”, because virtually all the actions and policies that are required to help build a resilient economy are the exact same ones that will naturally take Nigeria well beyond today’s economic recession and unto a path of rapid and sustainable economic growth. If you aim for the skies you might end up at the ceiling. Likewise, if you do what is necessary to achieve rapid economic growth, then the chances are that you will at least attain modest growth, even where some plans fail.

My honest summation is that, even if we start today to embrace holistic, creative, sincere and reform-minded economic policies, the “animal spirits” that these measures unleash will harness the creative and entrepreneurial energies of our people once again and quickly place us firmly on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is doing some things right, such as the effort to curb overhead expenditures and to be more frugal than past administrations, but then they are also doing many things wrong. There is a reluctance to completely break from the past and embrace significant economic reforms, even when our present predicament clearly warrants same. If we do not act now or if we do not act quickly, we may find our economy needlessly mired in a hopeless situation where the citizenry might not witness an increase in income per capita (living standards) for 6 to 8 years.

The search for an economic policy direction must end now because we are facing an economic crisis. A crisis is an inflection point. It is that point when multiple outcomes become possible. When you superimpose our demanding political calendar, which requires Presidential elections in a little over two years, it becomes clear that 2017 represents the last full calendar year that this administration has within which it must embrace major economic reforms, if we expect to still attain many of the more palatable economic outcomes. It is no use arguing over who or what caused the economic recession (-2% growth) and high inflation rate (over 18.5% p.a.) that we are currently facing; far better to focus on what we need to do to get us out of this sorry state.

There are several units within the FGN that are carrying out meaningful but disparate actions that solve many fringe economic problems. Various actors appear to be working in “silos” solving fringe problems. What appears to be still missing is a bold, holistic and audacious effort to harmonize fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro-prudential policies in a bold and concerted manner. Very few people want to take on the “big gorilla” in the room. They prefer to scratch around the fringes or work in silos, whilst almost accepting a 0.1% growth target as the achievement to celebrate because it might signify the end of a “so called technical recession”. That is why the impact of the FGN’s Economic Management Team is not being felt. A corollary of this proposition is that many people are simply minding their own business. Because they fear for their jobs, they are not interested in tackling their colleagues whose actions are negating and/or eliminating the most positive outcomes that the Government owes the electorate. Meanwhile, the populace is yearning for transformative economic changes.

I know that there are those who will criticize me for saying that the FGN’s economic policy direction remains unclear. My response to them is that the most significant economic reforms embraced so far by FGN came about rather reluctantly i.e. by FGN hanging on to an untenable position until it eventually disentangled itself or got overpowered by its own internal contradictions. We saw this with petrol prices and also the devaluation of the naira. When these “reforms” came, they arrived in the form of half-measures. Thus, we stopped short of both petrol price deregulation and opted instead for a limited price fix that was clearly unsustainable. We equally stopped short of adopting truly market-determined exchange rates and instead embraced a “fudge” that spewed widely divergent multiple exchange rates. Half measures typically bring some pain, but often fail (as in this case) to yield any lasting gain.

Determined to help force through the required soul-searching by FGN’s Economic Management Team, the rest of this paper will discuss ELEVEN major policy actions/inactions which the FGN and the ruling political party should consider. My approach is holistic. I am aware that some of these measures might require a bipartisan consensus. We must shake off the indolent mindset that leads us to believe that all Constitutional changes are taboo. Or the mindset that shirks any economic action that is out of the ordinary. Accordingly, I seek to draw attention to the following eleven items:-

1) The Central Bank of Nigeria should accept that it’s foreign exchange and demand management policies have failed. The more restrictions they have placed on forex repatriation the less likely it has become that badly needed forex inflows from portfolio investors, foreign direct investors and Nigerians will pick up. CBN has inadvertently created a siege mentality, thereby making privileged access to its forex allocations, which are reserved largely for the politically well-connected, the best investment game in town. Furthermore, the directive to banks to allocate 60% of forex to manufacturers who account for only 10% of GDP has exacerbated an already bad supply situation. 40% is much too small to accommodate the rest of the economy and so all other sectors have been crippled, including the Service sector which accounts for over 50% of GDP. This has unleashed panic thereby sending the parallel market to the high heavens. Forex inflows disappeared partly because of the uncertainty surrounding the ability to repatriate interest/dividends through an overly restrictive 40% window. There is nothing magical about 60% or 40%. It has no “scientific” basis. Meanwhile it has huge adverse distortionary implications on the supply side. The end result has been our mind-boggling and widely divergent multiple exchange rates which have spooked investors who have taken fright and also taken flight. Sadly, we have effectively “shot ourselves in the foot” by taking unsustainable actions that crippled both forex inflows and the Service sector, whilst favouring even those manufacturers who own “zombie” industries that are horribly import-dependent;

2) Linked to 1) above is the failure to reach some accommodation with Niger Delta militants. Three previous administrations (the preceding three) ended up brokering peace deals. A failure by FGN to broker a peace deal has cost the nation over $6 billion per annum. Dithering over amnesty payments promised by a previous administration was ill-advised because Government is a continuum. The FGN should urgently pursue high-powered negotiations which should be brokered by persons with a healthy track record in this activity and the ancillary pipeline protection business. In the longer term, I favour a constitutional amendment that reserves a one per cent royalty payment to immediate host communities on ALL mining and mineral producing activity (including limestone, oil, precious stones etc.). Communities will then be well incentivized to keep production activity going. This will give them some significant “skin in the game”, which is preferable to a long-term reliance on amnesty payments which constitute a moral hazard. A 13% derivation payment to a possibly “unaccountable and distant” State 14th Daily Trust Dialogue – Thursday 19th January 2017 2 Governor is not anywhere as effective as a 1% royalty payment to a host community;

3) We should simultaneously embark upon some asset sales which improve long-term efficiency and will yield foreign currency. I argued in my 01 October, 2016 published Letter to my Countrymen that the Federal Government share of the major Oil Joint Ventures (IOCs) should be sold down to 40% or no more than 49%. This would represent a replica of the highly successful Nigeria LNG (NLNG) model that provides a healthy dividend stream for the Government. If it is good for NLNG, then it should be good for the IOCs too. I envisage that the main obstacle here will be our value-destructive NNPC who might be reluctant to become a minority shareholder (40-49%). The secret behind NLNG’s success is that NNPC was “reduced” to taking a minority shareholding in this world-class investment project. Asset sales can yield $15-20 billion over the course of the next two years if planned carefully;

4) We urgently need to deregulate the entire downstream petroleum sector and also privatise NNPC’s three refineries + depots and pipelines and domestic gas;

5) Our civil/public service is still bloated, corrupt and inefficient and has become the excuse for a privileged 2% of the population to consume close to 60-70% of the annual budget via the recurrent expenditure vote. What is left over for the capital vote is insufficient to help finance social and physical infrastructure. Methinks mass redundancies are now inevitable, along with the implementation of an even bolder Orosanye Report because the nation is now stuck with a public service and legislators that we could only afford at $100 per barrel oil prices;

6) Less than 25% of our 36 States are economically viable. In the early 1960s, when Sir Ahmadu Bello wanted to build roads in the old Northern Region, he set aside salaries for a Works Minister (also a Parliamentarian) a Permanent Secretary and a lean Ministry of Works after which all the money set aside for roads was used in actually building roads. Today, overheads associated with 19 Commissioners and 19 Permanent Secretaries and their privileged workers consume virtually all the funds set aside for roads, leaving little or nothing left over for actually building State Government roads in most of the North. The obvious answer is political restructuring, as unpalatable as it may sound to some. For example, in terms of zonal overhead spending, we “expanded” the North from one regional government to 19 States and now need to “bring it down” to a more affordable 3 zones by retaining some overheads at the zonal level instead of spreading same over 19 states. We should keep an open mind towards this political restructuring argument because it is not even true that homogeneity within a State or zone necessarily guarantees peace. Somalia is homogenous and yet it is probably the closest thing there is today globally to a failed State. Conversely, there are communities, States and nations around the world which are heterogeneous, but which are living peacefully together;

7) To help overcome, the social and physical infrastructure deficit, we need to embark upon the restructuring canvassed in 5) and 6) above, whilst also embracing the private sector as the engine of growth and a capable partner/financier of infrastructural development. The Power and Transportation sectors are crying for more and not less privatisation. The logic of the power sector reforms was built around the adoption of cost-reflective tariffs, which we have since thrown out of the window. The transmission sector and gas supply difficulties are some of the other weak links in the power value chain;

8) A dysfunctional legal system is an impediment to the rapid growth of a modern economy. The Chief Justice of the Federation must “buy into” and spearhead radical reform of our legal system;

9) The anticorruption crusade will only complement the positive changes envisaged above if the Government itself respects the rule of law and obeys the Courts. We should err on the side of 14th Daily Trust Dialogue – Thursday 19th January 2017 3 extending the “benefit of the doubt” to accused persons whenever allegations are unsubstantiated or cannot be proven beyond reasonable doubt. This need not signify the end of the anticorruption crusade because there will always be enough cases which can be proven beyond reasonable doubt. It is better to let four people who might be guilty go free than to convict one innocent man. The latter drains all the energy out of the anticorruption crusade and also destroys business confidence;

10) Restoring business confidence should be the primary preoccupation guiding virtually every statement by public officers. This calls for a paradigm shift because the current preoccupation is for every Minister, Governor, Regulator or overzealous official to threaten investors with closure, bankruptcy, fines or seizure of their goods. Frightened businessmen (local or foreign) will not invest. We should be wooing investors instead of threatening them;

11) The Federal Government should immediately appoint directors to the boards of every regulatory agency. Keeping a Lone Wolf at the head of a regulatory agency is dangerous and therefore detrimental to business confidence. The important lesson from the recent Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria imbroglio is that a single rogue regulator can hold the entire system to ransom, help destroy business confidence and hamper economic growth. This only became possible because the checks and balances which our laws envisaged, through the appointment of Boards, Council members or Commissioners, were not in place.

CONCLUSION

Our economy is underperforming because, amongst other things, it is caught up in a low foreign exchange trap. Borrowing alone is not and can never be a panacea. Indeed, borrowing without instituting necessary and badly needed economic and structural reforms is akin to suicide. Those who are canvassing for more foreign debt simply because our debt/GDP ratio is low are overlooking the fact that our debt service ratios are already high. Our debt service ratios are high because our Tax/GDP ratio at 6% is exceedingly poor. It will require a few years of concerted action to move economic agents from the informal sector to the formal sector in a significant way before our tax/GDP ratio rises significantly. Relying on debt alone to get us out of the present low foreign exchange trap is therefore a high risk strategy. I consider it to be ill-advised. That is why I also emphasise 2) and 3) above. They help to improve the forex supply situation, without burdening our already high debt service ratios. If care is not taken, our deteriorating economy might take us on the “road to Venezuela or Zimbabwe”. Nigerians take pride in arguing that the Lord loves us and so he always intervenes by bringing us back from the precipice in the nick of time. I do not doubt that. What I truly believe is that the Lord intervenes through people. After the unbridled insults that were heaped on the Emir of Kano and a few others who dared to tell the Government the truth about the parlous state of our economy, the easiest path for me would have been to keep quiet or to simply blame speculators, detractors or past regimes. If I did that then the attack dogs would have won. NO, I am not about to abandon my right to free speech on account of some insincere sycophants. I speak because I want my country to improve. So help me God.

Atedo N A Peterside CON is the President & Founder of ANAP Foundation and is also the Chairman of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc and Cadbury Nigeria Plc Twitter @AtedoPeterside

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Feature/OPED

How Governor Uba Sani’s Sustain Agenda is Rewriting Kaduna’s Agricultural Metamorphosis

Published

on

uba sani

By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD

Governance ascends into telos when the hands that feed the nation work with sustained hope rather than uncertainty. The farmer is indeed relieved when he no longer gauges the farming season through the prism of survival or rising cost of fertiliser, but by the promise of a better harvest and a pathway to prosperity. Truth is, rural communities are only fundamentally satisfied when their fertile lands marry deliberate government intervention. This government intervention in agriculture is not in mere promises, speeches, or ceremonies, but in flourishing fields, fuller warehouses and improved livelihoods. At the very core of Governor Uba Sani’s SUSTAIN agenda is strengthening the bedrock upon which food security and economic prosperity are built: agriculture. His approach has been less of bombast and more of stewardship, allowing the sector to emerge from years of uncertainty into one of resurgence.

The agricultural sector of Kaduna State over the past three years reveals a government that has chosen investment over rhetoric. Pinpointing agriculture as the oxygen of the state’s economy, the administration has committed unprecedented resources to this very pertinent sector. The agricultural budget rose from barely ₦1.48 billion in 2023 to ₦74.2 billion in 2025, before exceeding ₦100 billion in the 2026 budget, making Kaduna one of the few states committing over 10 per cent of its annual expenditure to agriculture. These allocations represent an explicit declaration that meaningful agricultural transformation begins with deliberate investment. They equally reflect the prudence and resolve to position Kaduna not merely as a producer of crops but as an agricultural colossus. What once appeared a distant aspiration is gradually taking the shape of a tangible renaissance, built not on ephemeral promises but on carefully hewn policies and enduring commitments.

The most conspicuous manifestation of this administration’s intervention has been its direct support for farmers. Admittedly, farming has become increasingly expensive across the country lately, yet Kaduna state responded with one of the largest agricultural support programmes by distributing 15,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser, equivalent to about 500 truckloads, free of charge to over 120,000 farmers across the 23 local government areas. Through the “Tallafin Noma programme”, an additional 69,000 smallholder farmers received improved maize seeds and agrochemicals to increase productivity. These interventions have reduced production costs for thousands of farming households while strengthening food production at a time when food security remains a national concern. Such interventions are not mere statistics; they are a bulwark against rural poverty, a catalyst for productivity and a harbinger of renewed confidence. For many farmers, government support has become the linchpin upon which an abundant harvest now rests.

Governor Uba Sani understands that the true promise of modern agriculture lies not only in cultivation but also in the value created after the harvest. The commencement of the Kaduna Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zone marks an important shift from exporting raw produce to processing agricultural commodities within the state. Complementing this is the construction of Northern Nigeria’s first Agricultural Quality Assurance Centre, designed to certify agricultural produce for local and international markets. Together, these initiatives promise to reduce post-harvest losses, attract private investment, create employment opportunities and improve the competitiveness of Kaduna’s agricultural products beyond Nigeria’s borders. They equally represent a conscious effort to build an agricultural ecosystem, a lasting edifice of productivity whose impact will reverberate far beyond the present generation. The vision is transformative as it is audacious, replacing dependence with self-sufficiency and creating a confluence where farming, industry and commerce intersect.

Mechanisation and rural agricultural support have also received renewed focus. The procurement of tractors and farm implements, the provision of irrigation pumps, power tillers, fertilisers, and crop protection chemicals to farmer cooperatives, alongside continued investment in rural and farm-to-market roads, shows an understanding that productivity improves when farmers are supported with the right tools and infrastructure. Easier access to markets not only reduces transportation costs but also minimises post-harvest losses, ensuring that farmers reap greater value from their labour. These investments have become the fulcrum upon which rural prosperity increasingly turns, replacing archaic practices with innovative solutions and galvanising communities to embrace modern agriculture. They stand as an obelisk of thoughtful governance, a testament to the belief that development flourishes where opportunity is deliberately cultivated.

Superlatives are in short supply when describing Governor Uba Sani’s three years in office, and even more so when one attempts to capture the magnitude of his agricultural revolution. Among the promises he made was to revive agriculture as the engine of Kaduna’s economy, and, as always, he has kept his promise. We’ve always known he would; the challenges, though, are far from over, but every meaningful reform must navigate its own labyrinth of challenges. Yet the administration’s trajectory remains steadfast, its achievements too palpable to dismiss even to the staunch critics. It would be germane to etch in our minds that history, that impartial arbiter of leadership, may ultimately remember this administration as one that rekindled the state’s agricultural zenith and restored dignity to farming for generations to come.

Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a writer, researcher and public affairs analyst based in Zaria, Kaduna State

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

The Role of the Stock Market in Nation Building: Imperatives for an Inclusive Capital Economy

Published

on

stock market how to invest in US stocks in South Africa

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s stock market has crossed a milestone that demands attention. With total market capitalisation reaching N151.327 trillion as at June 2026, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has not only consolidated its position as Africa’s second-largest bourse, but it has also demonstrated something more consequential: that domestic capital, when properly mobilised, is a credible engine of national development.

Nation building is rarely a singular act. It accumulates through institutions that function, capital that circulates, and citizens who believe the system works for them. Few institutions make that case as visibly as a thriving stock exchange. The market is no longer just a barometer of investor sentiment. It is an active participant in Nigeria’s development.

The quality of any capital market ultimately reflects the quality of the companies it hosts. Markets create national wealth most effectively when they provide long-term capital to productive enterprises that expand industrial capacity, create jobs, deepen local supply chains and generate enduring shareholder value.

Earlier in the year, President Bola Tinubu had commended the NGX Group, corporate Nigeria, market operators and investors for propelling NGX past the historic N100trn market capitalisation mark, describing the milestone as a strong indicator of renewed investor confidence and economic recovery.

He said: “The Nigerian capital market stands at the heart of our ambition to build a one-trillion-dollar economy. It is the engine through which long-term finance must be mobilised to power critical sectors – from infrastructure to housing, technology, energy and industrial growth.”

Nigeria has increasingly demonstrated this through home-grown corporate champions such as the Dangote Group, whose decades-long investments across strategic sectors illustrate how patient enterprise-building and capital market development can reinforce one another. Strong companies strengthen strong markets, and strong markets, in turn, provide the capital needed to build even stronger companies.

But numbers, however impressive, are only part of the story. The more compelling narrative lies in who is now participating and how. The explosion in retail participation over the past two years is inseparable from digital infrastructure.

Data by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) shows 151,749 new brokerage accounts were opened in just the first five months of 2025. Between 2019 and November 2025, over 2.1 million new retail investment accounts were established, the strongest growth in seven years. This is not incidental. It is the direct result of deliberate technological positioning by market operators and regulators, and one of the more underappreciated contributions to national economic inclusion, the companies on the stock market.

Nigeria’s investing demographic is shifting, and the market must shift with it. A largely young, mobile-first population does not respond to traditional channels. They discover financial products on social media, transact via apps, and make decisions based on peer influence as much as professional advice. The 56 per cent year-on-year increase in retail equity investment to N981 billion in the first seven months of 2025 reflects this generational pivot.

Yet gaps remain. Women, smallholder entrepreneurs and low-income earners across tier-2 and tier-3 cities are underrepresented. Instruments like the Federal Government Savings Bond, accessible from as little as N5,000, demonstrate that appetite exists beyond the traditional investor class. The challenge now is sustained financial literacy, culturally relevant messaging, and last-mile digital infrastructure that meets these segments where they are. Broadening that base is not just good market development; it is nation-building in its most practical form.

Sustaining confidence in the capital market requires a functioning compact between four critical actors. Regulators must maintain the credibility they have worked on to rebuild. Reforms, including foreign exchange unification, banking recapitalisation, and NGX demutualisation, have restored institutional trust. That momentum cannot be squandered.

Financial institutions must do more than offer products; they must offer pathways. Education, simplified onboarding, and genuinely accessible advisory services are not optional add-ons. They are the infrastructure of a participatory economy.

Listed companies have a responsibility that extends beyond quarterly earnings. They must consistently demonstrate transparency, sound corporate governance, operational excellence and long-term value creation. Companies that invest patiently in productive assets while rewarding shareholders over time help deepen confidence in the market and encourage wider public participation. The experience of leading Nigerian enterprises, including companies within the Dangote Group, shows that sustained investment in the real economy can simultaneously create industrial capacity, support national development and deliver enduring value to investors.

At $117 billion, NGX’s capitalisation represents only about 35 per cent of GDP. Mature markets typically exceed 100 per cent. Closing that gap will require more quality listings, particularly from the productive sectors of the economy, where long-term capital can translate into long-term national growth.
Finally, technology providers must treat financial inclusion as a design constraint, not an afterthought. Connectivity gaps, low digital literacy, and transactional friction are not user problems. They are product problems.

Domestic investors now account for 77.79 per cent of total market activity, a structural shift that makes the market less exposed to global sentiment swings and more reflective of domestic economic conviction. That is a nation beginning to fund its own future.

As Nigeria seeks to build a more inclusive capital economy, the objective should not simply be to increase the number of investors. It should be to increase the number of successful Nigerian businesses capable of attracting long-term investment. Every globally competitive indigenous company that chooses transparency, governance and broad-based ownership strengthens both the capital market and the country’s economic resilience. The relationship is mutually reinforcing: vibrant companies deepen the market, while a vibrant market empowers the next generation of national champions.

The foundation exists. What comes next depends on whether all stakeholders can sustain the coordination that has made this growth possible and go further. A participatory capital economy is not an aspirational language. In Nigeria today, it is an unfinished project moving steadily in the right direction.

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

How the Landlords’ Economy is Pricing Nigerians Out of Home

Published

on

Landlord's economy

By Blaise Udunze

It is considered that in every organised society, the home is supposed to be a place of security. It should be where families find peace after a hard day’s work, where children grow, where dreams are nurtured, and where the pressures of life temporarily fade away. This narrative comes with keen interest, having witnessed that for millions of Nigerians, home has become the country’s newest economic battlefield. This is fast becoming the experience for the vast majority of Nigerians.

Across the length and breadth of Nigeria, citizens are deeply lamenting the skyrocketing rent. Regrettably, this has become one of the fastest-rising costs of living. An unexpected trend which has become a huge concern is that currently apartments that were rented for N700,000 or N1 million just a few years ago are now advertised for N3 million, N5 million or even higher. Amidst this bizarre development, do you know that they are often without significant improvements to the property itself? One key troubling development is that recent estimates suggest that house rents in many Nigerian cities have surged by between 100 and 300 per cent over the last two years, a pace that far exceeds the country’s official inflation rate and has placed unprecedented pressure on households already struggling with rising food, transportation and energy costs.

Landlords, through estate agents, increasingly demand one or two years’ rent upfront. Tenants are expected to pay 10 per cent of the principal rent toward agency fees, legal fees, agreement charges, caution deposits, and, in most cases, the service charge (which appears to be higher), security levies, and utility-related costs before receiving the keys. In many cases, these additional charges add hundreds of thousands or even millions of naira to the advertised rent, making the total cost of securing accommodation far beyond the reach of average-income earners. Equally disturbing is the unchecked exploitation by agent marauders, who prey on desperate house seekers by imposing outrageous and often illegal fees that further deepen Nigeria’s housing crisis. What should ordinarily be a routine life event has become a financial ordeal.

Nigeria’s housing crisis is no longer simply a property story. It has evolved into an economic emergency with profound implications for families, businesses, public health and national development.

The Federal Government’s National Housing Data Technical Committee estimates that Nigeria faces a housing deficit of approximately 15 to 20million homes. At the same time, millions of existing houses are considered structurally inadequate and lack access to essential infrastructure. If this figure is something to consider, anyone would know that these figures reveal two overlapping crises. First, this shows that millions of Nigerians cannot find decent accommodation, whilst millions more live in overcrowded, unsafe or poorly serviced housing.

At the same time, Nigeria’s population continues to expand rapidly, with cities absorbing hundreds of thousands of new residents every year.

One of the challenges is that urbanisation has consistently outpaced housing development, widening the gap between supply and demand while, predictably, rents continue to rise and affordability continues to decline.

Remarkably, housing experts generally recommend that households should spend no more than 30 per cent of their income on accommodation. For many Nigerian families, that recommendation has become almost impossible to achieve.

Teachers, nurses, journalists, police officers, civil servants, young bankers, entrepreneurs, artisans and other middle-income earners increasingly devote more than half of their annual income to rent alone. For many, housing has become the single largest financial obligation, leaving very little for every other necessity of life.

After paying landlords, food budgets shrink. Healthcare is postponed. Children are transferred to less expensive schools. Retirement savings disappear. Business investments are suspended. Vacations become unimaginable luxuries. The rent bill has become the first expense families think about and the last financial burden they can escape.

The effects extend far beyond individual households. This is totally outrageous, as financial analysts have long observed that when accommodation consumes a disproportionate share of disposable income, consumer spending across the economy inevitably weakens.

Families postpone replacing household appliances. Vehicle purchases are delayed. Furniture sales decline. Restaurants receive fewer customers. Clothing retailers experience lower patronage. Small businesses lose purchasing power from consumers whose earnings are now tied up in rent. The result is a vicious economic cycle in which rising housing costs suppress consumption, reduce business activity, and ultimately slow economic growth.

Behind every rent increase lies a deeply personal story. Consider a fictional but representative family whose experience mirrors that of countless Nigerians. The aspect of receiving notice that the annual rent for their modest two-bedroom apartment would rise from N1.2 million to N3 million comes with uneasiness.  At this point, the Blessings’ family had spent months desperately searching for an alternative.

Unable to afford the increase and harassment from the landlord, they eventually relocated nearly 30 kilometres away from their former neighbourhood. The consequences were immediate. Their children had to change schools. The family’s daily commuting time doubled. Transportation costs rose sharply. Family time disappeared.

The father now leaves home before sunrise and returns late at night. The mother spends more each month commuting than she once spent on groceries. Their financial burden has not disappeared. It has merely shifted from rent to transportation and also deals with other issues like epileptic power supply and flooding, especially during this rainy season.

Unfortunately, such stories are no longer exceptional. They have become increasingly common across Nigeria’s major cities. Perhaps no demographic feels this pressure more acutely than young professionals.

Come to think of it, graduates entering the workforce quickly discover that entry-level salaries cannot support decent accommodation close to their workplaces. You would also see many remaining with their parents far longer than anticipated. Other effects include seeing them share apartments with several unrelated adults to reduce costs, whilst some endure daily commutes lasting three or four hours because affordable housing exists only in distant suburbs.

The fact is that the consequences extend beyond inconvenience because long commuting hours reduce productivity, increase fatigue, heighten stress levels and significantly diminish quality of life. Another aspect of this, which is discouraging, is that for many talented young Nigerians, financial independence, home ownership and family formation are becoming increasingly distant aspirations. Several interconnected forces explain why rents continue to climb so aggressively.

Inflation has significantly increased the cost of cement, steel, roofing sheets and virtually every construction material required to build houses. The depreciation of the naira has made imported building materials substantially more expensive. No doubt, from recent findings, there are clear indications that there is a significant increase in the prices of building materials. Let us see the period between 2024 to 2026, Cement: N6,500 – N13,000; blocks: N600 – N1100; 30T of sand: N165,000 – N250,000; 30T of granite: N530,000 – N780,000; rebars (iron) ton: N850,000 – N1,150,000 amongst others. To be fair, it is a known fact that high interest rates have increased borrowing costs for developers, while land acquisition remains prohibitively expensive in many urban centres. The very question at heart is, how has this recent development significantly impacted the apartments built five years ago and beyond?

The government has made it difficult to the point that obtaining development approvals can be slow and costly. Developers also contend with multiple taxes, infrastructure levies and rising labour costs before construction even begins. No doubt, these expenses inevitably find their way into rental prices. But one question keeps running through the minds of many, which is, how do these directly impact apartments built many years back? The truth is that market realities alone do not explain every increase.

In many locations, speculative pricing has taken hold. Some landlords have raised rents far beyond what can reasonably be attributed to maintenance or inflation, taking advantage of overwhelming demand and the severe shortage of available accommodation.

The inability of many Nigerians to purchase homes has further intensified the pressure on the rental market. Inflation, high mortgage rates and limited access to long-term housing finance have pushed home ownership beyond the reach of millions, forcing them to remain tenants for much longer than planned. This should be blamed on the government of the day, as more people compete for a limited supply of rental properties, landlords possess even greater leverage to increase prices.

Housing insecurity is also producing a less visible but equally damaging consequence for deteriorating mental health.

The constant fear of eviction, the uncertainty surrounding annual rent reviews and the enormous pressure of raising large lump sums every one or two years create persistent psychological stress.

Think of the impact of parents’ worry about disrupting their children’s education. Young couples postpone marriage because they cannot afford accommodation. Family disagreements increasingly revolve around financial pressures. Consider the part of many Nigerians who quietly or secretly or unknowingly battle anxiety, emotional exhaustion and depression arising from the struggle to secure decent housing.

None of these psychological costs clearly appear in official economic statistics, but the truth is that they profoundly affect productivity, family stability and overall well-being. It is equally obvious that the crisis is also affecting employers and businesses.

Workers forced to travel long distances arrive at work exhausted. Traffic congestion consumes valuable productive hours each day. It turns out that companies increasingly struggle to retain staff who relocate in search of affordable accommodation. Also, know that many employers face mounting pressure to increase housing allowances simply to remain competitive.

All these call for a balancing as employees demand higher wages to offset escalating living costs, further increasing operating expenses for businesses already contending with inflation, unstable exchange rates and rising energy prices.

Housing affordability is therefore no longer merely a social concern. It has become a business and national competitiveness issue.

Though Nigeria is not alone in confronting housing affordability challenges, its recent trend calls for attention. Across Africa, rapid urbanisation continues to outpace housing supply.

For this reason, Kenya has introduced ambitious affordable housing programmes aimed at expanding supply, although implementation challenges remain; this can’t be compared to Nigeria’s current situation. Ghana is not left out of the equation as it continues to battle a significant housing deficit. Ghana is also grappling with the irony of completed homes that remain unaffordable for many citizens. South Africa, despite possessing a relatively more developed mortgage market, continues to experience severe affordability pressures in cities such as Johannesburg and Cape Town.

Nigeria’s situation, however, is intensified by its enormous population, rapid urban expansion, limited mortgage penetration and one of Africa’s largest housing deficits.

Nigeria has witnessed successive governments introducing affordable housing initiatives, mortgage schemes and public-private partnerships which fails before implementation. While these programmes represent positive intentions, delivery has consistently fallen far behind growing demand.

Housing experts argue that meaningful reform requires far more than constructing a limited number of housing estates.

Nigeria must simplify land acquisition processes, reduce infrastructure costs, expand mortgage accessibility, improve planning approvals, encourage private-sector investment in affordable housing and strengthen incentives for developers willing to build homes for middle- and low-income earners.

Improving housing data is important, but accurate statistics alone cannot reduce rents. Effective implementation remains the country’s greatest policy challenge.

Let’s consider some of these salient points proffered by urban planners who insist that Nigeria’s housing crisis cannot be solved exclusively through market forces. According to them, governments at all levels must invest strategically in infrastructure and create financing mechanisms that reduce development costs. To further help reduce the housing gap, they encourage the construction of affordable rental housing rather than focusing disproportionately on luxury developments.

The truth is that if housing continues to consume an ever-growing share of household income, consumer spending, investment and long-term economic growth will remain constrained. Another key barrier that must be addressed quickly, as highlighted by researchers, is inflation, limited housing finance, weak regulatory enforcement and inconsistent policy implementation, which happen to be major bottlenecks to affordable housing delivery.

One key question that yearns for answers is whether it is not obvious to the government and other stakeholders that housing is far more than concrete walls, roofing sheets and painted ceilings? The fact is that shelter, as the meaning implies, shapes educational outcomes, influences public health, determines productivity, strengthens families, supports social mobility and contributes directly to national competitiveness.

At this stage, it is a complete shame and at the same time an irony that a nation where hardworking teachers, nurses, journalists, entrepreneurs, artisans, security personnel and civil servants cannot comfortably afford decent shelter risks weakening its middle class, widening inequality and undermining sustainable economic growth.

If the truth must be told, Nigeria’s rent crisis is therefore not merely about landlords and tenants. For a fact, it is about the future of work, family stability, economic opportunity and social justice. Clearly, it is about whether millions of hardworking citizens can enjoy the dignity that comes with secure and affordable housing.

The mistake all along, which must be eschewed, is that a country’s progress is being measured solely by the number of luxury estates it builds or the height of its skyscrapers. More importantly, it should also be measured by whether ordinary citizens can afford a safe place to call home without sacrificing their children’s education, healthcare, savings or future aspirations.

If this is not adequately addressed, this rent trap will persist until affordable housing becomes a genuine national priority backed by bold reforms and sustained implementation; millions of Nigerians will continue facing an impossible choice, which would invariably lead them to surrender their financial future to keep a roof over their heads or abandon the comfort, security and dignity that every family deserves.

Concerned stakeholders shouldn’t continue to believe that the true cost of Nigeria’s rent crisis is therefore measured only in naira. It is measured in postponed dreams, delayed marriages, fractured families, declining productivity, abandoned ambitions, struggling businesses and the quiet erosion of hope among citizens who work tirelessly every day but find the simple promise of a decent home slipping further beyond their reach.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com  

Continue Reading