Feature/OPED
Ekiti 2018 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome
By Omoshola Deji
Democracy is basically the right of the governed to elect who governs. The people of Ekiti State, Southwest, Nigeria, would troop out on July 14 to elect who’ll govern them for the next four years. Over 30 candidates are running, but the election is ostensibly a two-horse race between Dr John Kayode Fayemi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Professor Kolapo Olusola ‘Eleka’ of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
This piece sets sight on foretelling the outcome of the election. Before proceeding, the below-average logical reasoning ability of the Nigerian political class makes some clarification necessary. Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the pundit has access to sacred information, rigging plot, or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of candidates to predict who’ll emerge is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are compromising the electoral process or influencing the election results. Ekiti people have already decided who they’ll cast their votes for before now and nothing – not this piece – can easily change their mind.
It is also necessary to clarify that predictions not coming to pass doesn’t mean the pundit’s forecast is fictitious. Election in Nigeria goes beyond voting and counting; it is usually a battle to retain or regain power at all cost. Political parties persistently decimate each other and manipulate the electoral process. The strongest candidate is often declared winner, not the peoples’ choice. Operating in a different way, pundit’s share their verdicts after a thorough assessment of the candidate’s political strategy, leadership capacity, antecedents, manifestoes, structure, acceptability etc.
The Ekiti election is a battle of interests, relevance and political survival. The newly selected National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, wants to prove his competence by winning Ekiti. The APC seeks to gain total control of the southwest region by winning Ekiti – the only state being governed by the PDP. Ekiti also determines the political permutations of 2019 and beyond. If APC wins, the presidency would treat the Southwest like a newly wedded wife in order to harvest votes for Buhari in 2019. Bola Tinubu’s negotiating power for 2023 presidency with the North would rise steeply if APC succeeds in Ekiti.
The Ekiti state governorship election is a political boxing rematch between Fayemi – an ex-governor seeking reelection – and Ayodele Fayose: an incumbent governor seeking to install his deputy, Olusola, as successor. In 2014, then candidate Fayose defeated the then governor Fayemi across the entire 16 local governments of the state.
Controversy however emerged when an army officer, Captain Sagir Koli, and PDP chieftain, Dr Tope Aluko revealed that the then government of ex-president Goodluck Jonathan aided Fayose’s victory with financial and military support in 2014. Power has changed hands at the centre and Fayemi now have the federal backing Fayose once had. Would Fayemi use the federal might against Fayose and his candidate?
The July 14 election is a referendum on Fayose’s popularity in Ekiti state. Fayose chance of becoming the PDP vice-presidential candidate in 2019 is high if he wins Ekiti for the party. This may unfortunately not be his lot as the APC would do all it takes to decimate him. His overconfidence, uncouth orations and vicious attacks on President Buhari has made him one of the political enemies that would be hounded before 2019. Fayose would languish in anguish after leaving office. The Buhari government would ridicule and persecute him. He would also be arraigned for allegedly using the state’s fund and the military to manipulate the 2014 Ekiti governorship election.
Fayemi hopes to repeat the history made by Fayose – deposed but later returned to office. His victory largely rests on his ability to resolve the shortcomings that made him lose power in 2014. Fayemi’s relationship with the civil servants, artisans, transport union members and teachers is not too cordial. He incurred the teachers’ wrath when his government threatened to sack those presumed incompetent and unqualified.
The fear that Fayemi would most likely abort Fayose’s stomach infrastructure handouts might make him lose again. During his first term, Fayemi was visionary and futuristic, initiating development projects, but Ekiti people want something else. They want food on their table; they want someone that understands the plights of the grassroots; someone who can rock the streets with them; someone who can give them the little things they can at least survive on now. Fayose incidentally gave them their desires and they elect him governor.
Another minus for Fayemi is the popular perception that would be running an elitist government and the state’s resources would be controlled by the Southwest political lords. The perception that Fayemi is Buhari’s boy could also work against him. The fear that the state’s anti-open grazing law could be abolished and Ekiti land awarded as a cattle colony to herdsmen might make the electorates vote against Fayemi. APC’s performance at the centre is also not convincing enough that the party has what it takes to transform Ekiti.
The arbitrary use of federal might could work against Fayemi. If the rumour that INEC’s ICT department has preload card readers and falsified results to declare Fayemi winner is not well managed, the people can revolt against him by voting en-mass for the PDP. The security agencies would also have a tough time managing crises if the mass reshuffling of police officers is to compromise the election for Fayemi.
Fayemi’s ability to reconcile with the 32 aspirants he defeated at the party’s primary largely determines his winning. The 32’s financial, human and material resources would significantly boost Fayemi’s chance of returning elected. Unfortunately, many of the 32 are still aggrieved and do not genuinely like Fayemi; they see him as a proud and cunning being that always try to outsmart everyone. The fear of being persecuted by the federal government is what still keeps most of them in the APC. Fayemi may lose if the aggrieved members of his party are not calmed and pacified to throw their weight behind him.
Fayose’s arrogance and imperiousness would affect Olusola. The Ekiti state PDP is monopolized by Fayose, who would not allow justice and fair play in the daily running of the party. The imposition of Olusola as governorship candidate has frustrated notables like Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Senator Fatimah Raji-Rasaki and other bigwigs out of the party. This would definitely dwindle Olusola’s support base and chance of winning the election.
Nonetheless, the voting arithmetic in Ekiti favours Olusola. Fayose strategically picked Olusola from the southern senatorial district that has never produced a governor. Olusola’s running mate, Mr Kazeem Ogunsakin, 39, is the former chairman of Ado-Ekiti local government and son of the state’s former Chief Imam. Olusola and Ogunsakin’s hometown, Ikere and Ado-Ekiti, have the largest number of registered voters in Ekiti State. PDP would sing victory songs if they win these areas by landslide. This would however not be easy as Fayemi’s running mate, 75-year-old Chief Bisi Egbeyemi is an influential Ado-Ekiti indigene.
Olusola would reap the gains of Fayose’s cordial relationship with the grassroots. Fayose initiated an uncommon style of governance in Nigeria. He will abandon his fleet of exotic cars and opt for a ride on okada. He regularly hangs out at spots other governors would not even near. He made the poor his friend and the street his second home. He makes the masses feel his government is theirs. Majority of the low and middle class population in Ekiti sees Fayose as their own and would most likely vote his choice candidate, Olusola. The APC has dismissed Fayose’s acceptance in the grassroots. The party argues that Fayose’s exploitation of the poor’s vulnerability for political gain and media hype would not earn Olusola votes.
The Ekiti election is going to be a very tight contest. The APC is determined to end PDP’s reign and Fayose has vowed that PDP would continue ruling Ekiti under Olusola. Let’s assess the candidates’ chance based on the factors that determines the winner of a governorship election in Nigeria.
Campaign outreach: both candidates campaigned massively across the length and breadth of Ekiti. Money: both candidates have strong financial strength. Power: Fayemi has federal might, Olusola has the state governor’s backing. Education: both candidates are well read; Fayemi holds a Doctorate, while Olusola is a Professor. Religion: both candidates have balanced the Christian-Muslim equation; Manifesto: Both candidates have no clear-cut programs, their campaigns were avenues to defame one another. Civil service votes: Fayemi owed workers salary before leaving office and Fayose owes months. A significant portion of the over 50,000 workers would most likely vote for Fayemi, but teachers would in all probability vote for Olusola.
Ethnic loyalty votes: Olusola and his running mate’s constituency have the second highest and the highest number of registered voters respectively. The security agencies: they would presumably favor the federal government’s candidate – Fayemi. But then, the APC stalwarts should be mindful that political arrests and intimidations at this moment would only generate voter’s compassion for the PDP. The alleged police harassment of Fayose is a booster for the PDP as it would earn his godson, Olusola, some sympathy-votes.
Grassroots support: Fayose’s overwhelming popularity among the poor majority would earn Olusola a substantial amount of votes. The largely populated poor who are beneficiaries of Fayose’s food distribution (stomach infrastructure) would most likely vote Olusola in order to continue getting the largess. The elites: majority of them would vote for Fayemi, but a major issue to be considered is that they are not as many as the poor. Some elites are apolitical and don’t vote.
The informal sector and the less educated population – artisans, traders and transport workers: this array of persons – that vote and stand by their votes – would most likely vote for Olusola because they see his godfather, Fayose, as pro-masses. The transport workers refusal to convey people to Fayemi’s campaign rally on 10 July, 2018 is a pointer that they are supporting PDP’s Olusola. General perception: Ekiti people know Olusola is Fayose’s stooge but might prefer to vote him than Fayemi – a Buhari loyalist that’ll most likely convert their ancestral lands into cattle colony for herdsmen. Political vengeance: rather than lose, the ‘powers-that-be’ may install Fayemi to avenge the 2014 Ekitigate scandal.
All winning indices considered, PDP’s Olusola would predictably get the highest number of votes, but APC’s Fayemi could be declared winner. Protests would emerge after the election and the election tribunal would be flooded with petitions.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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