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Empty Pots Don’t Lie: Hunger, Not Statistics, Is Nigeria’s True Inflation Figure

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Nigeria’s True Inflation Figure

By Blaise Udunze

Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Federal Ministry of Finance release inflation figures, suggesting a country navigating economic turbulence with resilience. Yet, in kitchens across the nation, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality emerges: empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.

In May 2023 the new government that took over promised bold reforms to “reset” Nigeria’s struggling economy. The administration swiftly removed fuel subsidies, unified exchange rates, and pledged fiscal discipline. On paper, these moves were meant to stabilize the naira and attract foreign investment. In reality, they set off a spiral of price shocks that Nigerians are still reeling from.

Though, the available official inflation figures suggest an economy “stabilizing.” The Finance Ministry and Central Bank of Nigeria have touted these adjusted numbers as signs of “resilience” and “progress.” Whilst in the markets of Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Imo, and Enugu, where rice prices have doubled and garri has tripled, the story is far grimmer. At Mile 12 in Lagos, a bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now fetches over N80,000, and a crate of eggs that once went for N1,200 in 2022 now costs N6,200. Tomatoes, onions, garri, and pepper, all staples of the average Nigerian meal, have surged beyond the reach of ordinary households.

Yet, the food inflation rate in August 2025 was 21.87 percent on a year-on-year basis. This was 15.65 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2024, which was at 37.52 percent. The NBS noted that the significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year. “On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in August 2025 was 1.65 percent, down by 1.47 percent compared to July 2025 (3.12 percent),” NBS stated.

These figures are not only implausible but also insulting to those whose lives have been torn apart by skyrocketing prices. With the realities facing the larger populace, Nigeria must be using another mathematics.

Between June and December 2024, headline inflation climbed from 34.19 percent to 34.80 percent, which is one of the steepest rises in recent history. But by January 2025, after the NBS rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2009 to 2024, inflation figures suddenly “eased” to 24.48 percent and further down to 20.12 percent by August 2025.

This statistical sleight of hand may look neat on paper, but it fails to erase the truth:Nigerians spend 70-80 percent of their income on food, and for many, even that is not enough. Food inflation stood at 21.87 percent in August 2025, while core inflation (covering non-food items like housing, healthcare, and transport) was 20.33 percent. Month-on-month, both still tick upward, showing persistent pressure. One may be forced to ask: are the numbers being massaged to protect political narratives while burying social realities?Hunger is not something you can doctor with spreadsheets. The fact is ordinary Nigerians are eating less, skipping meals, and facing unprecedented food insecurity. These are realities no rebasing can hide.

Recently, the World Food Programme warned that more than 30.6 million Nigerians will face acute hunger in 2025, and 37 percent nationwide live below the poverty line. Meanwhile, over 133 million Nigerians are already trapped in multidimensional poverty. For them, inflation is not a statistic but a daily question of survival: will today’s wage buy one meal, or none at all?

When families can no longer afford bread, rice, or beans, official inflation percentages become meaningless. Empty pots have become the loudest, most honest economic indicator across Nigeria.

The titillated figures corrode public trust and widen the gulf between government and citizens. While policymakers in Abuja tout “stability” and “resilience,” protests, strikes, and discontent tell another story. A hungry people, it is often said, are an angry people, and Nigeria’s rising insecurity, urban unrest, and rural despair are clear symptoms.

Markets, not ministries, now dictate the pulse of the economy. Citizens are no longer fooled by polished reports; they measure inflation not by percentages, but by whether they can afford food for their families.

Today, churches are filling a gap left by weak government intervention. In spite of the “good-looking” inflation statistics, these religious bodies, especially in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, operate community kitchens where hot meals are served daily or weekly to the poor, homeless, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Their welfare arms supply food to widows, orphans, and jobless youth, while vocational programs in tailoring, farming, and catering help families achieve lasting food security.

Nigeria’s economy is being narrated in numbers that do not add up. The “available” inflation data may temporarily shield officials from criticism, but it cannot disguise the hunger that gnaws at millions. Inflation is no longer about rising prices; it is about shrinking lives. Empty pots across the nation are now louder than government press briefings.

Until the government confronts the gap between statistics and survival, hunger will remain the only honest inflation index in Nigeria.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com

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The Future of AI in Nigerian SMEs: Overcoming Barriers to Implementation

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Kehinde Ogundare 2025

By Kehinde Ogundare

Ask a tech entrepreneur in San Francisco what AI means for their business, and they are likely to talk about competitive advantage, product differentiation, and scale. Ask a small business owner in Kano or Onitsha the same question, and the conversation shifts entirely.

For many Nigerian SMEs, the priority is keeping the lights on, managing costs, and finding sustainable ways to grow in a challenging economic environment. This difference in perspective explains why the global AI conversation, often shaped by assumptions about stable infrastructure, deep capital, and abundant technical talent, frequently fails to address the realities facing Nigerian SMEs.

This matters because Nigerian SMEs are not a peripheral concern. In 2024 alone, MSMEs contributed 46.32% to Nigeria’s GDP, accounting for 96.9% of businesses and 87.9% of employment. These businesses are the backbone of the Nigerian economy, and if AI is going to mean anything for Nigeria’s development, it has to work for them in the daily conditions they actually operate in.

However, research drawing on empirical data from 144 Nigerian SMEs found that inadequate infrastructure, low digital literacy, skills shortages, and regulatory gaps are collectively preventing them from meaningfully engaging with AI. Awareness of AI is high and growing. What is missing is a clear and honest conversation about what adoption actually requires in this specific context. The barriers are real, but none of them are insurmountable. The question is whether the tools, pricing models, and support structures being offered to Nigerian SMEs are designed with those barriers in mind, or whether they have been built for another market entirely.

Subscription models making AI affordable for small businesses

When most small business owners hear “AI,” they imagine expensive software, specialist consultants, and a hefty upfront bill.

That assumption is not entirely wrong, but it describes a particular way of buying technology, not AI itself. The shift that makes AI genuinely accessible at the SME level is the move away from large, one-time capital purchases towards tools that charge a predictable monthly subscription. Businesses can pay for what they use, scale back when necessary, and avoid the debt that a major technology investment can create.

The deeper opportunity here is consolidation. Many SMEs are already spending money across multiple disconnected tools—one for invoicing, another for customer records, another for stock tracking—none of which talk to each other. An integrated platform that handles several of these functions together, with AI built in, can actually cost less than the sum of those separate subscriptions while giving business owners a clearer picture of their operations.

With margins already under pressure, any technology a business adopts needs to visibly show an increase in productivity or bottom line. Subscription-based, integrated platforms, priced transparently and honestly, are the model that best fits this reality.

Infrastructure challenges demand a mobile-first approach

No conversation about technology in Nigeria is complete without confronting the infrastructure problem, and AI is no exception. Nigeria continues to face major infrastructure barriers, including limited broadband access, unreliable power supply, and high data costs, all of which constrain deeper AI adoption. These are structural features of the operating environment that any sensible technology strategy must account for today.

The electricity situation alone is significant. The World Bank estimates that the lack of stable electricity costs Nigeria’s economy approximately $26.2 billion annually, equivalent to about 2% of GDP, forcing many businesses to run on expensive diesel generators. That cost ripples outward.

In practical terms, AI tools built for Nigeria cannot assume a stable broadband connection or a computer that is always powered on. The tools that will actually get used are the ones that work on a smartphone, consume minimal data, and can function offline when connectivity drops, syncing back up when it returns. The mobile phone is already how many Nigerian SME owners run their businesses. AI that meets them there, rather than demanding infrastructure they do not have, is AI that has a genuine future in this market.

The direction is clear: build capability from within, using tools that make that possible. Recent AI performance research reveals that 64% of African workers are already actively using AI at work, signalling massive grassroots readiness and driving forward-thinking organisations across Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa to aggressively prioritise internal upskilling frameworks to bridge the talent gap.

As the policy groundwork is being laid, the commercial ecosystem is beginning to respond. What remains is a clear-eyed acceptance that AI tools built for this market need to look different from those built for markets with different realities. Low cost, low bandwidth, and usability for non-technical people are not modest ambitions; they are the actual requirements. Build for those realities, and AI has a real future in Nigeria’s SME economy.

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When Leaders THRIVE: Yetunde B. Oni’s Candid Counsel to Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy

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When Leaders THRIVE Yetunde B. Oni

Union Bank’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer sat with 30 of Nigeria’s most promising young leaders for a frank conversation on character, relationships and the discipline of growth.

Out of 25,000 applicants, only 30 earned a place. That single figure tells you how rare the room was when Yetunde B. Oni, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Union Bank of Nigeria, recently sat down with a cohort of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy.

The Academy, a Lagos State Government initiative established in honour of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande, the state’s first civilian governor, exists to raise a generation of ethical and capable young leaders. Its fellows are drawn from across professions, sectors and ethnicities, and shaped through a fellowship facilitated by the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa (ALI WA), whose work on values and principled leadership has become a quiet engine behind some of the country’s most thoughtful emerging talent.

It was into this gathering that Mrs Oni brought not a corporate address, but a conversation. Honest, personal and at times disarming, she spoke about the philosophies that have carried her through a career spanning more than three decades, the setbacks she has had to surmount, and the values that opened doors she never expected to walk through.

She gave them a framework to hold on to. She called it THRIVE.

The six principles

T — Take ownership of your relationships. Leadership, she argued, begins with the deliberate stewardship of the people around you. Relationships are not incidental to a career. They are infrastructure.

H — Honour God. She spoke openly about faith as a steadying force, an anchor that keeps ambition tethered to something larger than the self.

R — Recharge and refresh. Mental and physical health, she insisted, are not luxuries to be deferred until the work is done. Leaders who neglect their well-being eventually have less to give.

I — Invest in your growth. Continuous and heavy investment in personal development is, in her telling, the price of staying relevant. The learning never ends.

V — Value your work. She pressed the fellows on identity and brand. What do you stand for? Do you create value? Who, in truth, are you? The questions were not rhetorical.

E — Embrace setbacks. Failure, she said, is not the opposite of progress but a part of it. The leaders who endure are the ones who learn to metabolise disappointment rather than be defeated by it.

The people behind the leader

If one theme threaded the entire conversation, it was relationships. Mrs Oni was candid that she did not arrive at the top of Nigerian banking alone. She credited the steady support of family, her parents and her husband, alongside the mentors, friends, coaches and sponsors who shaped her at different stages.

She drew a sharp and useful distinction between a mentor and a coach, two roles often conflated and rarely understood, and she traced much of her progress back to a foundation of Nigerian cultural values: hard work, honesty and integrity, courtesy and respect. These, she told the fellows, are not relics. They are the very qualities that have earned her trust and opened doors throughout her journey.

“You need people,” was the message, delivered without sentiment. Relationships, she explained, must be managed and nurtured with the same seriousness one brings to any other discipline. Time must be managed with equal care.

On believing, and risking

Perhaps the most resonant moment came when Mrs Oni spoke about self-belief. She admitted that becoming the MD/CEO of Standard Chartered Bank, Sierra Leone, did not cross her mind – not because she was unqualified, but because she didn’t think she would get it. Encouraged by her husband, she applied anyway, and she got it!

That appointment would later see her make history as the first woman to lead a Standard Chartered Bank operation in her market.

The Union Bank of Nigeria appointment told a similar story. She had not even known the position existed after the CBN’s intervention. It came to her through relationships; through the quiet networks of people who knew her work and recommended her name while she was unaware in faraway Sierra Leone.

The lesson she left with the fellows was unambiguous. Believe in yourself. Take the risk. Put in for the thing you are not yet certain you deserve, because the opportunity you are waiting for may be one you cannot see, reaching you through someone you have not yet met.

Why this matters

Engagements of this kind are easy to underestimate. They produce no headlines about balance sheets and no immediate line on a financial statement. Yet they speak to something Union Bank has long understood: that institutions endure when they invest in people, and that leadership is built one honest conversation at a time.

Credit is due to the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa, whose facilitation of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy continues to shape young Nigerians of real promise, and to the Academy itself for the rigour of a process that turned 25,000 hopefuls into 30 fellows ready to lead.

For Yetunde B. Oni, the afternoon was less about what she had achieved than about what she was willing to give: her time, her story and her counsel, offered freely to those coming after her. It is, in the end, what the best leaders do. They light the path for the next generation, and they THRIVE.

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Destination Ekiti: Two Elections, One Lesson in Vision

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welcome to Ekiti

By Oludayo Oludee Olorunfemi

A couple of months ago, my principal, Mrs Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya (SAN), was scheduled to travel from Lagos to Akure for an interactive meeting as part of her consultation process before contesting for the office of President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). Today, she stands cleared to contest the election; the ban on campaigning has been lifted, with elections scheduled for 20 July 2026. However, this is not the central story. What stays with me from that trip is an unexpected lesson in leadership, vision, and the power of deliberate planning. It is a lesson that has become even more relevant as Ekiti State prepares for its governorship election on 20 June 2026, exactly one month before the NBA election. Two elections. Two different constituencies. Two different ballots. Yet remarkably similar questions before the voters.

Who has the vision? Who has done the work? Who has demonstrated the capacity to build for the future rather than merely campaign for the present? The journey began with a logistical challenge. The available flight from Lagos to Akure was scheduled for later in the day and would not get the team to Ondo State in time for a series of engagements planned across Akure, Owo, and Ondo Town.

During discussions on the best alternative, I suggested that we fly into Ekiti through the newly commissioned Ekiti Agro-Allied International Airport. The plan was simple: arrive early in Ado-Ekiti, make strategic visits to leaders of the Bar within the State, and then proceed by road to Akure for the scheduled meetings. What none of us anticipated was that Ekiti itself would become the story. Our first stop was a courtesy visit to Aare Afe Babalola, SAN, founder of Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti. The purpose was straightforward: seek Baba’s blessings for the journey ahead. As always, a visit to Aare Afe Babalola became a masterclass. Drawing from over ninety years of experience, he spoke about governance, leadership, the legal profession, and nation-building. Listening to him, one could not help but reflect on the legacy. Across the South-West, the Aare Afe Babalola Bar Centres stand as visible reminders that impactful leadership is measured not by promises made but by institutions built.

As we continued our visits across Ekiti, someone suggested we stop by the Ekiti State Bureau of Tourism, headed by the energetic lawyer and tourism advocate, Mr Wale Ojo-Lanre. That unplanned detour became the highlight of the trip. The welcome was unmistakably Ekiti, warm, thoughtful, and rich in culture. Before we entered, we observed the symbolic knocking on the traditional drum suspended at the entrance. Then came the recitation of Mrs Badejo-Okusanya’s oriki as an Egba woman, evidence that our hosts had taken time to learn about their distinguished guest before our arrival. It was a small gesture, but one that reflected a larger truth about Ekiti, a people deeply connected to their culture, history, and identity. What followed was even more enlightening.

Officials of the Bureau took us through the various tourism assets of the state and presented the Ekiti State Tourism Development Master Plan (2025–2035). As a proud daughter of Ekiti, I listened with a sense of pride and optimism. The vision was clear. Tourism was no longer being treated as an afterthought but as a strategic economic pillar. Through public-private partnerships, destination governance, infrastructure development, cultural and eco-tourism innovation, enhanced security, asset development, and community empowerment, the state is seeking to position itself as a destination of choice. What impressed me most was the coherence of the plan. Too often, governments commission projects without building ecosystems. What we saw in Ekiti was different. It was a deliberate attempt to connect infrastructure, policy, investment, culture, and people into a sustainable tourism economy. It was the kind of long-term thinking that separates administration from leadership.

The next day, after completing our engagements in Ondo State, on our way back to catch our return flight, we stopped at Ikogosi Warm Springs Resort. Some places are beautiful. Others are transformative. Ikogosi belongs firmly in the second category. Listening to Madam Ruth, our tour guide, narrate the history of the springs, watching warm and cold waters continuously flow side by side, placing one foot in each stream, and observing the famous intertwined trees thriving together despite their differences, one could not help but marvel at nature’s wisdom. Different streams. One destination. Different identities. Shared purpose. The carefully curated pathways, the serenity of the environment, the chorus of birdsong, and the pristine landscape created a profound sense of peace. By the time we left, the verdict from everyone on the team was unanimous: we will be back. GO SEE IKOGOSI.

Ekiti is sitting on immense tourism potential. Not potential that exists only in policy documents or political speeches, but real, tangible, marketable potential. From Ikogosi to Arinta Waterfalls, to Mount of Clouds, to Olosunta Hills; from cultural festivals to ecotourism sites, from its rich history to its emerging infrastructure, Ekiti possesses many of the ingredients required to become one of Nigeria’s premier tourism destinations. What remains essential is sustained leadership and the courage to pursue a vision beyond electoral cycles. Perhaps that is why the coincidence of the election dates feels significant. On 20 June, the people of Ekiti will evaluate the leadership before them and determine the future direction of their state. One month later, on 20 July, lawyers across Nigeria will make a similar decision about the future of their association. The parallels are difficult to ignore.

In Ekiti, Governor Biodun Oyebanji has built a reputation for quiet but purposeful governance. Rather than chasing headlines, his administration appears focused on laying foundations in infrastructure, agriculture, education, and tourism that will yield benefits long after the politics of the moment have passed. In the NBA, Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya (SAN) presents a similar proposition. Her aspiration has been defined by consultation, engagement, bridge-building, and a vision of a bar that is inclusive, progressive, and institution-focused. Both represent a leadership philosophy that values preparation over performance. Both understand that sustainable progress requires patience. Both appear committed to building structures and a legacy of service that will outlive them.

As we departed Ekiti that evening, we left with more than memories of a successful consultation trip. We left with a renewed appreciation for what thoughtful leadership can accomplish. We left with fresh ideas. We left inspired by the possibilities that exist when vision is matched with execution. Most importantly, we left convinced that Ekiti’s tourism story is only beginning to be told. Destination Ekiti is more than a slogan. In the month that separates 20 June from 20 July, voters in Ekiti and lawyers across Nigeria will be asked essentially the same question: Do we reward those who merely speak about the future, or those who are deliberately building it? For Ekiti, for the NBA, and for all who believe in the power of institutions, the answer should be a BOLD Yes!

Oludayo Oludee Olorunfemi, a lawyer, writes from Ward 10, Idemo Quarters of Oke Aiyedun Ekiti, Ajoni LCDA.

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