By Blaise Udunze

As the new economic year begins in Nigeria, statements and policies emanating from government officials’ corridors project cautious optimism. One of the official narratives that expresses renewal of hope and confidence is the projection from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the economy is expected to continue expanding, with GDP growth at 4.49 percent, and headline inflation is projected to moderate to 12.9 percent. Despite grappling with shrinking oil revenues, rising public debt, and widening fiscal deficits as a nation, it is further projected that the foreign reserves are anticipated to exceed $50 billion. Policymakers presented these figures as evidence that the economy is stabilising and consolidating, irrespective of the clear evidence of years of turbulence.

Yet the concern for experts is that beyond the polished macroeconomic indicators lies a widening disconnect between statistical recovery and lived reality. While increasingly warning that stability is necessary, the views across academia, civil society, labour groups, and the private sector, experts clearly stated that it is not synonymous with sustainable growth, nor does it automatically improve living standards for millions of Nigerians grappling with unemployment, rising prices, and fragile livelihoods.

This development signals the economic debate entering 2026, as evident in the previous years, the argument that the year must not become another chapter in which rhetoric outpaces results. To them, it must place productivity, inclusion, and welfare at the heart of reform as all this must be informed via a decisive shift toward holistic, people-centered economic renewal.

The Numbers and the Narrative

There is no denying that certain macroeconomic indicators have improved. Tighter monetary policy in 2025, foreign exchange market unification, and efforts to rein in deficit financing have contributed to relative stability in inflation dynamics and exchange rate volatility.

However, economists interviewed by major national dailies argue that many of these gains remain largely “on paper.” They clearly stated that growth figures have not translated into broad-based job creation, rising real incomes, or improved business conditions for small enterprises. It is regrettable that households whose spending is dominated by food, transport, and energy, whilst inflation. However, easing remains painfully high relative to income, and this disconnect underscores a deeper flaw in economic communication and design, showing that headline indicators often mask structural weaknesses. GDP growth does not automatically reflect productivity expansion, employment quality, or resilience. Foreign reserves alone do not guarantee the affordability of necessities. When policy emphasis centres on aggregates rather than outcomes, reform risks losing social legitimacy.

When Stability Isn’t Enough

The inflation debate illustrates this dilemma clearly, and projections suggest moderation in 2026, yet prices of essential goods remain high. Low-income households, especially those outside formal wage employment, bear a disproportionate burden. For them, “disinflation” offers little relief when purchasing power has already been eroded. In like manner, exchange rate unification, though economically rational, imposed short-term shocks on import-dependent businesses and consumers. The fact remains that without a simultaneous and aggressive push to strengthen domestic production, the nation’s currency reforms risk transferring adjustment costs to households rather than building long-term competitiveness. These debates reveal two competing visions of economic management:

–       One that prioritises macroeconomic order and investor confidence

–       Another that insists stability must be matched by visible improvements in welfare, productivity, and opportunity.

The fact is that a holistic renewal agenda must reconcile both.

Macroeconomic Stability as Foundation, Not Destination

To be clear, stability matters, and it must be treated as a foundation, not the finish line. One will conclude that this is what it is meant to be because economic planning becomes impossible without disciplined fiscal management, credible monetary policy, and sustainable debt dynamics. Experts caution against celebrating stabilisation while growth remains modest.

The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s growth to slow toward three per cent, with further moderation in 2026 due largely to weaker global demand and declining oil prices. Crude oil’s fall below Nigeria’s budget benchmark reinforces the urgency of diversification. Moderate growth, without deep structural reform, cannot absorb Nigeria’s rapidly expanding labour force. This is because as a young, fast-growing population requires productivity-led growth, not cyclical rebounds tied to commodity prices.

Infrastructure as the Productivity Multiplier

Infrastructure remains one of Nigeria’s most binding constraints, commonly associated with the lingering erratic power supply, congested transport corridors, inefficient ports, and weak digital connectivity, which impose high costs on businesses and households alike.

Consistently, it is argued by experts that fragmented projects are insufficient by objectively looking at the trend of things; what is required is integrated infrastructure planning that links energy reform with transport logistics, industrial clusters, rural access roads, and digital platforms. Some of the key grey areas that the electricity reform must address are not just generation but transmission losses, distribution inefficiencies, and tariff credibility. Without much ado, transport investments should prioritise economic corridors and channels that connect farms to markets and factories to ports. Digital infrastructure, broadband access, data systems, and digital public services must be recognised as essential economic infrastructure, not optional upgrades.

Human Capital and the Missing Engine of Growth

No economy can sustainably outgrow the quality of its people. Yet education and healthcare often remain peripheral in reform discourse.

Today, we noticed that Nigeria’s education system struggles with skill mismatches, while healthcare costs push millions into poverty.

Economic growth, no matter how well-measured, will remain shallow, as experts have maintained in their arguments that this will remain a constant factor without human capital reform. In the same manner, education, which is a key instrument for building human capital, must be in alignment with labour-market needs, while reflecting technical skills, digital literacy, and adaptability, knowing quite well that vocational and technical are critical and should be elevated as engines of productivity, not treated as second-tier options. Human capital is not social expenditure; it is economic investment, so for this reason, healthcare investment, like others, must prioritise preventive care, insurance coverage, and workforce retention.

Private Sector and MSMEs, From Constraint to Catalyst

Small and medium-sized enterprises are already struggling to survive in Nigeria’s high-cost economy, despite being the nation’s largest employer of labour, as informed by high interest rates, limited credit access, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Access to affordable finance, regulatory simplicity, predictable tax policy, and contract enforcement are critical since experts repeatedly stress that reform must shift from controlling enterprise to enabling it.

Without deliberate support for small businesses, growth remains concentrated, informal employment persists, and inequality deepens. For these reasons, MSMEs require not just credit, but stable operating environments.

Industrialisation, Local Production, and Value Addition

One of the strongest expert warnings ahead of 2026 concerns Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports and raw commodity exports. This structure leaves the economy exposed to external shocks and foreign exchange volatility. For this reason, we have continued to witness economists and industry leaders advocating aggressive support for local production, agro-processing, and manufacturing value chains. Strengthening domestic capacity reduces import dependence, stabilises foreign exchange demand, and creates jobs.

Industrial policy must practically focus on sectors where Nigeria has a comparative advantage, supported by infrastructure, skills, and finance. This is to say that import substitution without competitiveness risks inefficiency, and value addition with productivity creates resilience.

Fiscal Reform and Social Justice

Fiscal reform is very important, and experts have argued that to make sure that fiscal reform is done in a fair way, it must be equitable. The tax officials must ensure that extending the tax base, it does not translate into overburdening small businesses or low-income earners. Also, one would have noticed that the removal of fuel subsidies freed fiscal space, but without strong social safety nets, it also made life very tough for a lot of people because they did not have any help when they needed it. Critics argue that reform savings must be visibly social investments like education, healthcare, transport, and targeted welfare. Social protection is not charity; it is economic stabilisation, preventing reform shocks from eroding social cohesion.

Governance, Institutions, and Policy Credibility

Unique to the Nigerian system, we have witnessed economic reforms fail where institutions are weak. This is because trust and investment have been undermined due to Policy reversals, regulatory inconsistency, and the lack of transparent decision-making.

Beyond rhetoric to enforcement, experts emphasise the need for policy coherence, institutional professionalism, and transparent communication. Anti-corruption efforts must extend. Prolonged Judicial judgement, particularly in commercial dispute resolution, has adversely impeded the smooth running of society as it questions the credibility of the system. Good governance is not abstract morality, rather it is a growth multiplier.

Agriculture, Food Security, and Rural Stability

Food inflation remains a major driver of hardship and has been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn. Though trade liberalisation has occasionally eased prices, experts argue that without boosting domestic agricultural productivity, food security will remain fragile.

Mechanisation, storage infrastructure, rural roads, insurance, and access to finance are essential. Equally critical is addressing rural insecurity, which disrupts production and inflates food prices.

Agriculture links economic growth directly to poverty reduction and social stability.

Digital Economy and Innovation

Technology is no longer a sector; it is a layer across all sectors. One can argue that Nigeria’s fintech success demonstrates what is possible, but looking at it intently, a broader digital transformation requires investment in connectivity, data protection, and cybersecurity. Regulation must be enabling, must be able to change when necessary, and forward-looking to achieve a thriving digital economy that can generate jobs, improve service delivery, and connect local firms to global markets.

The Productivity Challenge in Decline

Across expert critiques, one theme recurs: stability without productivity is stagnation.

An economy can be stable yet unproductive, grow slowly, create little or no jobs, and remain vulnerable to shocks. Productivity growth transforms stability into prosperity. It requires investment in people, infrastructure, innovation, and institutions.

Without productivity, growth becomes cyclical, driven by oil prices, not by domestic capacity.

From Rhetoric to Resonance: Closing the Credibility Gap

As Nigeria enters 2026, it has to choose to either settle for modest stability and make progress or pursue bold, people-centred strategies that generate shared prosperity.

The signs of stabilisation are real. But so is the urgency for deeper reforms that trickles down to the daily lives of those at the lower rung. Growth must be measured not only in GDP figures, inflation rates, or reserves, but in the number of jobs that are being created, the people who are earning money, and the businesses that are still running, with hope restored. It is expected that a true economic renewal in 2026 will not be announced; it will be felt.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

By Jerome-Mario Utomi

There are clear thinkers. There are also muddled thinkers. And at the rear are people you can’t explicitly refer to as Thinkers. They are just there. Neither warm nor cold. Not even lukewarm. They fall in between.

Clear thinkers are the ones that can cull everything down into the right points. And they are very hard to find. You can call them scarce commodities if you like. However, when you get yourself a team of clear thinkers, the possibilities are endless. These are men who see tomorrow, trailblazers and high-level executives, often misunderstood by some fellow countrymen still stuck in the old normal of yesterday.

Without any shadow of the doubt, the globally celebrated physician, Dr Joel Onafowokan, Chairman, Association of Nigerian Physicians in the Americas, (ANPA) Carolina chapter is a rare breed. He is a “scarce commodity”. He is invaluable and priceless. He is an asset to his country and fellow compatriots. Dr Onafowokan is a clear thinker. He belongs to the league of clear thinkers  as outlined by Justin Merkins and illustrated above.

Given his scorecard of transformative leadership characterized by unwavering commitment to coordinated sustainable development, Dr Onafowokan is celebrated by fellow Physicians from Nigeria and other parts of the world resident in the Americas. He is a product of ingenuity and resourcefulness, a thoroughbred professional and administrator who approaches leadership roles with great enthusiasm, devotion and selflessness. Dr Onafowokan spends his energy in worthy causes and in the end, triumphs with high-impact achievements.

Dr Onafowokan’s strong leadership and commitment to protecting the political and socio-economic interests of Nigerians in the United States, has through strong alliances with credible development-oriented institutions seen ANPA, Carolina Chapter gain visibility and recognition in the comity of Medical Associations and Governmental Agencies.

A foremost example of such a relationship is the robust alliance between ANPA and the Grand Knight Sir Tonna Okei (Ikuku Oma), led Organization of African Unity (OAU), South Carolina, United States of America (USA).

On Saturday May 3, 2025, the ANPA America Carolina’s Chapter,  in conjunction with Heart Bright Foundation, at Carolina Lakes Golf Club, 23012, Kingfisher Dr, Indiana Land, SC, United States of America (USA), held its 2025 ANPA Carolina Symposium and Golf Tournament, to raise funds for ANPA National to support medical missions and workshops in Nigeria.

At the event, ANPA made a donation of $20, 000, to Heart Bright Foundation, a health focused- organization whose mission is to promote cardiovascular wellness through prevention, awareness, and partnerships in the Charlotte Mecklenburg area of the country. The gesture was received by Ms Nicole Bonesteel on behalf of Heart Bright Foundation.

I am confident that the donated sum will go a long way in helping put smiles on the faces of those in need of cardiovascular medical help.

Heart Bright Foundation focuses mainly on cardiovascular wellness and education by treating the risks such as diabetes, stroke, and hypertension.  They have a free clinic in the South End area which helps patients that have (or are at high risk for) heart disease or Diabetes.

In a similar vein, the ANPA Carolina chapter, alongside the Nigerian Physicians Advocacy Group (NPAG), Sir Okei’s (Ikuku Oma), OAU met with key U.S. leaders on Saturday, September 14, 2024, in Columbia, SC, and held discussions that focused on opening pathways for strategic collaborations and strengthening critical relationships between government entities and the Nigerian community.

ANPA, a non-profit organization representing Nigerian medical professionals in America was incorporated in 1995 for educational, scientific and charitable purposes as a tax-exempt non-profit organization under section 501(c)(3) of the internal revenue code, NPAG, under the leadership of Dr. Susan Edionwe, MD, FACS, serves as the 501(c)(4) advocacy affiliate of ANPA, a 501(c)(3) philanthropic organization. Both entities represent physicians residing and practicing in the Americas.

The delegation to the meeting was led by Dr Onafowokan (Chairman),  Dr Uyi Igbinadolor, with Grand Knight Emeritus  Okei (Ikuku Oma), President of OAU, SC, and Ms Nnenna Amuji, Presidential Aide.

The group paid a joint working and courtesy visit to the federal appointee for the South-east Crescent Commission, a federal agency in the United States.

Worthy of mention is that Dr Onafowokan holds in high esteem, his predecessors as attested by his recent visit to the grave side of Dr Nova Omoigui, the former president of ANPA. He was accompanied on the visit by Dr Igbinadolor, a physician per excellence, Okei (Ikuku Oma), President of the Organization of African Unity SC.

Again, as a result of Dr Onafowokan’s sterling leadership provisions, the sheriff of Mecklenburg county was the special guest of honor at the 2025 ANPA end of the year celebration where he praised the relationship ANPA is exploring in conjunction with OAU, and looks forward to a more robust relationship between the sheriff’s county, the sheriff’s office and ANPA.

There are three ways in x-raying Dr Onafowokan’s character trait. Firstly, he is not only a clear thinker but a man with sound leadership judgement and cerebral in thinking. Secondly, his organizing and human relations prowess are not only heroic but exemplary. Thirdly, He is imbued with the capacity to deliver on any given assignment, blessed with grace to take any given organization from where it is to where it ought to be.

A highly skilled physician, Dr Onafowokan specializes in primary care, internal medicine, and hospital care. He’s board-certified in internal medicine by the American Board of Internal Medicine and has advanced certifications in cardiac life support and trauma life support.

Dr Onafowokan earned his medical degree from the University of Benin, Nigeria, and completed his internship and residency at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons in New York.

With over 15 years of experience, he has worked in various clinical settings, including emergency and critical care. He is passionate about providing superior health services and stays updated with the latest research to deliver high-quality care. He is affiliated with Faith Medical Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, and holds admitting privileges with Novant Health hospital network.

Very unique is the awareness that in their civil and detribalized nature, Tonna Okei and Joel Onafowokan both married Yoruba wives, Dr (Mrs) Oluwatoyin Okei (Ugodie) and Mrs Anne Onafowokan. And the two women are doing exceedingly well in both home management and in giving support to their husbands community development efforts.

What the above tells us is that Dr Onafowokan is an asset that needs to be deployed for national use. It will be in the immense benefit of our dear country if the government taps from his wealth of exhilarating knowledge and  leadership acumen. Given his sterling qualities, efforts and selfless contributions to development, it is my opinion that it will be highly rewarding if Dr Onafowokan  is partnered by the government or outrightly hired to bring his skills, leadership, administrative and patriotic fervour to bear on national service, especially as the Tinubu administration focuses on rebuilding the country and renewing Nigerians’ hope for a better tomorrow.

Utomi, a Media Specialist writes from Lagos, Nigeria. He could be reached via [email protected]/08032725374

By Isah Kamisu Madachi

The furore about whether the tax laws should be implemented or not has passed. The nationwide discussions about the discrepancy between the gazetted version and the version passed by the National Assembly have also faded. January 1 has come and gone, and many changes, especially around digital transactions, are already beginning to manifest, as provided for under the new tax law. The consolidated tax laws under the tax reform regime are now in force and, as a citizen, I hope they are backed by strong accountability mechanisms and oversight to ensure that collected taxes are used for the right purposes.

However, there is a major policy gap I observed at the very last minute of the law’s implementation which, if left unaddressed, may not only undermine the effectiveness of the law but also cause more harm to its objectives. If I were to estimate, I would say that less than 5% of Nigerians understand what the new tax law contains, how it works, and what it does not do. This knowledge gap has created a fertile ground for misinformation, disinformation, and fake news.

In the past few days, I have personally encountered many people who told me they had withdrawn all the money saved in their bank accounts and converted it to cash. They said they no longer trust cashless transactions. Some were told that every single transaction, irrespective of the amount, would attract a flat ₦50 charge.

Others were also told that just keeping money in their accounts would lead to monthly deductions, or that a 5% of their savings would be deducted every month for the tax. None of these claims could be traced to any provision of the law, yet they are widely being shared with absolute confidence.

Another unfortunate experience, was my encounter with a young and vibrant POS agent from whom I regularly withdraw cash. He told me he had shut down his business. According to what he was told, every ₦500,000 transaction would attract ₦15,000 in tax, every ₦5 million would attract ₦250,000, and any transaction above ₦1,000 would automatically be charged ₦50.

He was also told these deductions would be accumulated and collected at the end of the month, and that’s what frightened him most. He used to make transactions of an average of ₦50 million per month. With this information, he now chose to abandon his livelihood. Whether these claims are true or false is not the most important when one considers the damage such misinformation is already causing.

There is also a growing narrative, particularly on social media, that every transaction must now be clearly explained in the narration section. People are being told they must specify whether the money is for savings, shopping, gifts, rewards, profit, or salary. A counter-narrative exists saying this is false. Sadly, the average Nigerian does not know which version to believe. In an environment where official clarity is weak, rumours travel faster than facts.

If I were to document all the misinformation circulating about the new tax law, it would take more than a newspaper opinion. New versions emerge almost every hour. The most alarming outcome of this misinformation is how people are altering their economic behaviour. Businesses are being abandoned. Trust in digital finance is being eroded. People are deserting the cashless system out of fear, believing their money is no longer safe in the banking system.

The only effort I am aware of to address this information gap is the reported engagement of social media influencers to enlighten the public. If this effort has begun, it is not enough. If it has not, then it is urgently needed. But beyond influencers, one must ask: what happened to local radio stations? Radio remains the primary source of information for millions of Nigerians, especially in rural areas. The law should be broken down and discussed in local languages on local radio.

There are also a proliferation of online television platforms operating across social media spaces. The tax reform committee should strategically collaborate with them to explain the law in simple and creative ways. Influencers alone cannot carry this burden. Public communication must be broader, more structured, and more deliberate.

The Federal Ministry of Information also has a central role to play here. There is an urgent need for a simplified version of the tax law and other versions translated into local languages, and disseminated in collaboration with state ministries of information. Students, heads of households, community leaders, traders, and small business owners must all be deliberately engaged. Town hall meetings, especially in peri-urban communities, should be organized. They are necessary to counter the scale of misinformation already circulating.

When people are largely unaware of what a law entails, dysfunction is inevitable. The law may exist, but its implementation will be undermined by fear, resistance, and unintended consequences. By the look of things, those who understand the new tax law are currently the fewest in Nigeria, even among the highly educated. If this gap remains wide open, the law may struggle to achieve its intended outcomes.

Now that it’s here, I hope, and I genuinely pray, that if effectively implemented and properly communicated, the new tax laws will become one of the long-awaited channels for fixing many of Nigeria’s challenges. But without deliberate public education, I doubt if the policy can yield the desired result.

Isah Kamisu Madachi is a public policy enthusiast and development practitioner. He writes from Abuja and can be reached via: [email protected]