Feature/OPED
Nigeria: Politicians Advocate Comprehensive Review of Constitution
By Kester Kenn Klomegah
Leaders of integrated associations and politicians, mostly from the Eastern region of Nigeria, are calling for a thorough constitutional review that will incorporate the diverse ethno-political interests and also offer equal representation in the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN).
Several archival reports made available and separate interviews conducted by IDN vividly show rising tensions and the lack of strategic foresight in the current approach towards national integration before 2023, the end of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
Nigeria became a formally independent federation on October 1, 1960. It, however, experienced a civil war from 1967 to 1970. After that, it alternated between democratically-elected civilian governments and military dictatorships until it achieved a stable democracy in 1999, with the 2015 presidential election marking the first time an incumbent president had lost re-election.
In the 2019 presidential election, Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected for a second term in office defeating his closet rival Atiku Abubakar. As historical documents show, the Nigerian constitution was through a military decree adopted in 1999.
Nigeria is divided roughly in half between Christians, whose majority lives in the southern part of the country, and Muslims, who live mostly in the north.
Nigeria has respectively, the fifth-largest Muslim population in the world and the sixth-largest Christian population in the world, with the constitution ensuring freedom of religion. A minority of the population practise religions indigenous to Nigeria, such as those native to the Igbo and Yoruba ethnicities.
Currently, Islam has spread to the Christian dominated Eastern and Southern regions of Nigeria. Right after the Nigeria-Biafra civil war and until now, the Fulani people have dominated the military and politics in Nigeria. All is done for and by the Fulani for Fulani ethnic group, according to Kenneth Onyekachi Ihemekwele, Founding Partner of Imo State Indigenes Association, Executive Secretary of the Association of the Nigerian community and General Secretary of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra aka IPOB in Swaziland, southern Africa.
After independence, following the military take-overs, the negotiated constitution has primarily remained an unimplemented document. The devastation and the underdeveloped Eastern part of Nigeria is the result of negligence from the federal government following the end of the Nigerian-Biafra civil war. The military regimes introduced a series of decrees that ushered in policies that are believed not to accommodate the development and political interests of the Igbo people.
“Nigeria is one of Africa’s most diverse and deeply divided states in the world today. Colonial rule exacerbated these differences, solidifying religious and ethnic identity as salient political distinction and creating conditions for persistent instability.
“The north-south divide continues and is marked by the serious disparity in economic development and access to basic social services,” Ihemekwele told IDN in an emailed interview.
Competition for control of state institutions, abetted by corruption, and conflict over the spoils of Nigeria’s natural resources, especially oil, have further contributed to these sources of instability.
In pursuit of broad-based political participation, peace and integration, Onyekachi Ihemekwele suggests that “the current constitution is reviewed properly because the constitution was drafted without due consultations with the broad majority of the people of Nigeria.
“It is a one-sided constitution for the selfishness of a certain group of people, who call themselves the ruling class, or better still, the northern politicians. We are free people and have rights to shape our destiny.”
Under the current circumstances, an inclusive economic and political system is the only solution. The contemporary public discourse is focussed on political restructuring along regional lines. The calls for a political arrangement where major ethnic groups will have control over their geographic areas as well as resources therein might help. The danger is rather than uniting Nigeria it would further divide the country along distinctive ethnic and religious lines.
Significantly, the foot-dragging on constitutional review by Buhari’s leadership called for public criticisms, he noted and further explained that what Nigerians need, and are clamouring for, is a country that will accommodate ethnic diversity, a unified country regardless of ethnic or religious creed, but at present, cannot be because Islam defines politics. Nigeria needs political, religious and ethnic tolerance. The constitution has to guarantee public safety in every facet of life, and the need for legitimate, effective political and administrative institutions.
The Nigerian authorities have an emphatically negative attitude to public opinions on ending violence and armed attacks, especially on the inhabitants of Eastern Rivers State.
Despite consistent calls for the constitutional dialogue that will ultimately provide a basis for peace and integration, promote internal sustainable development nationwide and boost a positive image on international arena have, thus far, remains an unchangeable political dream. Opening the chapter as a new dawn for adherence to the ideals of political pluralism has indefinitely eluded millions of broad-minded Nigerians.
Onyekachi Ihemekwele concluded that Nigeria has fallen from grace, and there seems no remedy for Nigeria to regain this past glory.
“We had earlier called for restructuring, the need for the Nigerian government to agree to wholesome restructuring without reservation or grant a referendum for the people in the South-East to strive for self-rule or what is referred to, in politics, as self-determination,” he said.
Professor Nathaniel Aniekwu, Secretary of the Alaigho Development Foundation (ADF) regretted in an interview with IDN that 60 years after independence and 50 years after the Civil War, the growing threats and frequent attacks by northern ethnic groups and deepening pitfalls in the federal governance system have negatively affected the overall development of Biafra and other regions in Nigeria.
According to the ADF, Biafra symbolizes the Igbo people’s longing for freedom, underlining their predicament from the Amalgamation in 1914 to the Biafra Declaration on May 30, 1967. Ever since, Biafrans have been confronting a continuous state of estrangement, brutal attacks and punitive measures against their spiritual, economic and political survival. The world community continuously watches the large-scale atrocities committed in the country. As long as these wars are going on, Nigeria cannot have peace, and therefore, there would be no real significant progress.
All economic indices show that despite the perceived war against them, marginalization and exclusion from participation in the governance of Nigeria, the Biafra States continue to be very competitive and are far from being worse off among the Nigerian States. Although Nigeria is richly endowed with natural and human resources, it has quickly lost all its shine advantages, he said.
Moreover, whatever remained in the past, has been squandered, especially as they seek to exclude Biafrans from participation in political governance. They failed to deploy the appropriate resources, especially human resources, and broad-minded people who can guide and manage the development of the country, simply because most of them come from the Biafra States.
National integration is an obvious possibility, especially for the Biafra States. It is the only hope, not only that internal cohesion is imperative but also integrating into a union of the agreed that is paramount. Leadership must be looked from the point of view of the governed, at the micro-level of the society. This has to be positioned as a guarantor of the preservation of the multi-secular State in Nigeria.
The federal system of government is not working in Nigeria given the unique nature of the Nigerian political space. We must, therefore, return to the solution domain, seek long-term solutions, first by reviewing the constitution. By taking this step, it could make it more receptive to further peace initiatives, offer political opportunities and creating ground for representations instead of depriving them of participating in state management.
Without all-inclusive Federal Government and its related public institutions, efforts to maintain the status quo will result in sharp differences and disintegration. The political division along ethnic lines and the slow peace process will harm development, explained Nathaniel Aniekwu.
Mrs Marie Okwor, President of the Igbo Women Assembly (IWA) and one-time member of Advisory Council of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is one of the remaining few Nigerians who have seen Nigeria from the struggle for independence through the development of its democracy.
Mrs Okwor, who is an Associate of the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, narrated her views about the impact of the Civil War, the current politics and the role of the church in Nigeria.
“The War of 1967-1970 war was a pogrom, a war of attrition meant to wipe out a whole race for no just cause. It reminded me of the Holocaust against the Jews. I feel very emotional as I speak about this,” she told IDN.
“Suffice it to say, that the war could have been avoided, had Nigeria kept her end of the agreement at Aburi, in the Republic of Ghana, which came to be called “the Aburi Accord” reached in 1967. This venue offered all the delegates security guarantee, and that meeting was billed to be the last chance of preventing all-out War.
The accord finally broke down because of differences in interpretation on both sides. This led to the outbreak of the War. Markets and places of worship were not spared from bombings and strafing. As a matter of fact, one of my domestic staffs lost her mother in one of the market bombings. She was hurt by shrapnel; she bled to death since medical facilities were scarce. The effect of the War on the State of Biafra was deplorable.
The Government of Nigeria is vehemently opposed to the name Biafra. Many point to the fact that Biafrans have never been re-integrated. The basis for unity no longer exists. Biafrans struggle for their survival without depending on anyone.
Since the Nigerian Government has refused absolutely to accept Biafrans as a part of Nigeria, it stands to reason that they should be allowed to go separately and develop on their own at their own pace. It is pertinent to mention that the north contributes little, rather resources from southern Nigeria are controlled and squandered by northern politicians.
“There’s so much unrest which stems from oppression, square pegs are placed in round holes indeed. Almost all of Nigeria’s intractable problems emanate from the imposition of candidates during elections, there have been no free and fair or credible elections. The situation gets worse with every election. In the first place, the constitution under which elections are held is a fraud. Far from being the “People’s Constitution” in a simple sense of democracy, we have faced these mistakes since the inception of the presidential system of governance in Nigeria. The system under reference is wasteful, encourages corruption and dictatorial tendencies,” she precisely alleged in an interview with IDN.
In an early July IDN interview with the President of the Congress of Igbo Leaders in the UK and Ireland, Mazi Obi Okoli, said that Nigeria has lots of challenges in implementing a system of governance that will guarantee the interests of all within the nation.
According to him, many of the problems, frictions and issues faced today in Nigeria are a direct result of the flawed federal system, the 1979 constitution drafted without consultation and the negative attitudes by the majority of politicians toward development in Nigeria.
The negative dimensions and conditions of ethnic minority alienation and discontent in the federation has been indeed made worse under the present regime, and further tightening of the noose continues unabated.
Therefore, the interpretation and connectivity of ethnicity with the federal system of governance is that of resultant inherent contradictions and tensions in the evolution and operation of the Nigerian federal system.
Many of the problems, frictions and issues faced today in Nigeria are a direct result of the flawed federal system; the problematic 1979 constitution drafted without consultation and the negative under-developmental attitude of the Nigerian politicians.
It has been made worse by the over-centralization of the governance system, the primitive refusal to recognize the complex ethnic configuration and interest. Furthermore, the pragmatic consensual underdevelopment of some regions, especially the Eastern part of the country, the relatively limited development of accommodative, consensual or power-sharing mechanisms, the absence or weakness of key mediatory or regulatory institutions, and the repeated distortion and abortion of democratic institutions. With the above administrative defects, it will be difficult for the nation to progress in contemporary times and be able to compete with other developing nations of the world.
As a matter of facts, Ambassador Uche Ajulu-Okeke, a veteran Diplomat and Development Studies Expert with thirty-years working experience in the Nigerian Foreign Service, explained to IDN from the United States, that “the present-day Federal Republic of Nigeria, several years after its independence, the leaders have not succeeded in rebuilding its state institutions enough to reflect all-inclusive ethnic diversity. Let alone in adopting Western-style democracy that takes cognizance of different public opinions on development issues in the country. The struggle for and misuse of power have brought an absolute stalemate, disrupting any efforts to overcome the deepening economic and social crisis in the country.”
Besides, she tellingly maintains that “several challenges exist, the first of which is a coercive alien hostile occupation of our homeland which have severally subjected Igbo Women to rape, ravaging their homes and farmlands, decapitating their husbands and children and sources of traditional rural livelihoods. Widespread poverty, unemployment and unemployable skill remain a major challenge. State endorsed occupation of large portions of rural and village communal lands by hostile alien Jihadists have hampered the ability of women to provide for their families as supportive income earners.”
With the prevailing socio-economic climate and the steadily dwindling economic fortunes and hostile stance of the Government towards the entrepreneurial endeavour of Easterners, the future is bleak for women and youth. The only glimpse of hope in the horizon is a fallback to the age-old traditional practice of nurtured apprenticeship has been the bulwark of survival and sustenance in the face of the current existential threat facing Easterners.
The situation in the region is dire depicting a derelict lack of infrastructure widespread unemployment, insecurity and youth hopelessness. As a result of decades of State endorsed systemic exclusion since the end of the Civil War, Easterners have found themselves at the brink of socio-economic extermination and had to pull themselves up by sheer perseverance and dint of effort resulting in disenchantment with Nigeria and massive migration to new diasporas and abroad.
As Nigeria is persistently engulfed with so many challenges and problems, so it requires a systematic well-defined approach in order to overcome them: Nepotism at all levels and institutions of Government. Morbid corruption. Endemic kleptocracy. Ethnic cleansing and persecution of Christians and ethnic capture of the military and security apparatus of the State.
The current entrapment of Biafra within the British Nigeria contraption prevents the actualization of its investment and development potential in all ramifications. This is why the Easterners want to delink from this entrapped arrangement called Nigeria. In the face of years of criminal neglect by Nigeria and a firm footing in the Diaspora, Biafra’s emancipation and development will be the Eighth Wonder of the World.
In Ajulu-Okeke’s logical analysis, the way forward in restoring nationalities and bringing sustainable peace and development to the beleaguered peoples of Biafra is through the conduct of plebiscites that will afford the indigenous nationalities the inalienable right to choose how they are governed. The juxtaposition of ancient nationalities with incompatible values presently held together by a coercive military decree in centrist top-down military format federations, fundamental regional autonomies should return to the truly democratic constitution and holding of self-determination autonomy plebiscites for all indigenous nationalities will usher in sustainable development and peace.
According to international organizations, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and the seventh most populous in the world, with an estimated 195.9 million inhabitants as of late 2019. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after China and India with more than 90 million of its population under the age of eighteen.
Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa and is the world’s 24th largest economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, worth more than $500 billion and $1 trillion in terms of nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and purchasing power parity, respectively. Nigeria is a federal republic comprising 36 states, with the capital located in Abuja. The country is located in West Africa bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east and Benin in the west. Its southern coast is on the Gulf of Guinea in the Atlantic Ocean.
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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