Feature/OPED
Nigerian Elections: A Democratic Deficit
By Omoshola Deji
First Osun, then Kano and now Kogi and Bayelsa States. The spate of violence during election brings doubt on Nigeria’s ability to get it right. Unlike other nations, Nigeria seems to have no magic formula; no means of solving a problem without creating another.
Democracy initially seemed an opportunity to annihilate tyranny, but has instead increased it. Rule of law, freedom of speech and other democratic ethics are consistently being violated by the ruling elites and “converted democrat”. Nigeria is fast becoming the worst country for democracy as franchise have become an object of attack. This piece appraises the flaws of Nigerian elections, particularly the Kogi and Bayelsa governorship poll, and the pundit’s verdict.
The people of Kogi and Bayelsa trooped out on November 16 to elect their choice for the state’s top job. The exercise which should ordinarily be civil and peaceful was marred by unprecedented violence and electoral fraud. Gun-wielding thugs, aided by the security agencies, disrupted the electoral process from which Nigeria’s democracy is supposed to grow.
Perhaps those in positions of authority misconstrued duty as favour. In a democracy, individuals are morally responsible to vote their conscience, and government is duty-bound to provide the enabling environment, ensuring the wish of the majority prevails. Once the environment is not enabling, the outcome of an important exercise such as election cannot be taken as the wish of the majority. Factoring this in, although Yahaya Bello of Kogi state and David Lyon of Bayelsa were return elected, they did not win the election. This by no means underestimate their ability to win in a credible contest.
Repression of opposition candidates, their supporters and polling agents made the elections a democratic deficit. In Kogi state, incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello of the All Progressives Congress (APC) commanded violence on his contenders. Stalwarts of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) were routinely harassed, injured and killed. Thugs invaded their homes, vandalized them, and set some ablaze. Several cars and valuables were destroyed, forcing the targets to go into hiding. This destabilized PDP and SDP from making last minutes canvassing to woo undecided voters; giving APC an unfair advantage. The attack surprisingly continued even after APC ‘won’. Thugs set the home of a PDP women leader ablaze and callously watch her burn to ashes.
Suppression of voters is also one of the unholy strategies APC employed. The party carefully studied the voting pattern of both states, ignite violence in opposition strongholds, but protected hers. In Kogi, election proceeded smoothly in the Central district where Bello hails from, while the East and West were confronted with extreme violence. In Bayelsa, people were restrained from voting in Southern Ijaw where PDP is likely to garner majority vote. The party was also stifled in Nembe. The outturn of both elections suggests APC has devised different illicit strategies for winning elections. Repression and suppression are autocratic tenets, a breach of the fundamental principle of fairness that must be adhered to in a democracy.
Disenfranchisement made the elections a democratic deficit. Violence and intimidation denied eligible voters the opportunity to cast their ballot. Fear kept people indoor while majority of those who turned up scampered for safety as thugs attack opposition strongholds in Kogi. Many lost their votes via ballot-box snatching. In Bayelsa, the Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth & Advancement, popularly called YIAGA Africa reports that INEC announced falsified results and election did not hold in 24 percent of the state’s polling units. Disenfranchising such a significant percentage of the population utterly discredits the outcome of the election. How do we pacify the 24 percent whose preferred candidates lost because they were denied the opportunity to vote? Such inequity makes the election a democratic deficit.
Monetary inducement of voters and electoral officers made the elections a democratic deficit. Agents of the dominant parties, particularly the APC and PDP always offer cash for votes, and did so in Kogi and Bayelsa states. They shared between N500 to N3000, although APC outspend the PDP, being the ruling party at the federal level.
Two categories of persons should be criticized for vote-buying, but Nigerians mostly condemn one; they blame the buyers (politicians) and absolve the sellers (voters). Vote-buying has become so prevalent that majority of the electorate expect to be tipped for voting. But then, should we blame the poor voters for demanding a continuation of what the parties started? Nonetheless, Nigerians need to be enlightened that politicians are descendants of the devil; they have no free gift. Vote-buying is a business and politicians who invest in the trade must recoup their money and make extraordinary profits, hence the prevalence of under-performing governments.
Electoral fraud and INEC’s partisanship made the elections a democratic deficit. An electoral umpire must be impartial to all contending parties, but INEC fell short. In Bayelsa, election materials stolen by APC thugs surfaced during collation and INEC allegedly record the votes. The umpire announced bogus results in favor of APC in Sagbama, Ogbia, Nembe, and Southern Ijaw. It’s baffling how these troubled spots returned high votes; the Borno 2015 template was apparently revived. How could the result of Nembe – a troubled spot where people would naturally abstain from voting – reflect over 80 percent turnout, while the result of a peaceful area such as Yenagoa, the state capital reflects less than 40 percent turnout? Such result is a clear indication of electoral fraud.
Electoral fraud was rife, but INEC lacks the courage to wield the big stick, especially against APC. In Kogi state, armed thugs, aided by the security agencies, manipulated the poll in favour of APC. Ballot boxes were either carted away, destroyed, or changed with already thumb-printed ones. To Nigerians dismay, INEC counted the false votes rather than cancel the results of the affected polling units. To top it all off, bogus figures were awarded in favour of APC in crisis-ridden areas and spaces PDP has fair support. For instance, INEC claimed APC scored 112,764 votes, while PDP only garnered 139 votes in Okene local government of Kogi State. This cannot be true.
A party with structure and spread like the PDP can’t garner such a paltry vote at a time Kogites were determined to sack Bello’s failed government. The bizarre result is a reflection of the extreme rigging perpetrated in almost every area of the state. In a credible contest, even SDP’s Akpoti would garner more than 139 votes in Okene. It is perturbing PDP didn’t score such a paltry vote during the Lagos 2019 governorship election. Please bear in mind that although the revenue generated in Lagos state is incommensurable with its rate of development, Akinwunmi Ambode’s administration performed much better than that of Bello in Kogi. Yet the godfather denied him return ticket, but supported Bello.
Unprofessional and partisan conduct of the security agencies made the elections a democratic deficit. Over 60,000 police officers and crime fighting equipment were deployed for the Bayelsa and Kogi governorship elections. Yet violence prevailed. The military compromised the election in Bayelsa, while police jeopardized the exercise in Kogi. Policemen accosted gun-wielding thugs to polling units across Kogi West and East district to snatch or stuff ballot boxes, attack opposition figures, and distribute money to APC agents. The thugs moved freely with vehicles despite restriction of movement, manipulating and destabilizing the election.
APC agents operated under massive protection while that of PDP and other opposition parties were left in the cold. Recall that prior to the election, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Natasha Akpoti’s campaign office was looted and destroyed by alleged APC thugs, but the perpetrators weren’t arrested. Take a breather to imagine how the security agencies, the state government and the presidency would have reacted if such happens to any APC secretariat.
At the venue of the Peace Accord signing meeting, Akpoti and her aides were molested, her campaign vehicles were destroyed by APC thugs, while the police looked on. The raging thugs disrupted the meeting, which had several dignitaries present, including Mohammed Adamu, the Inspector General of Police (IGP). Yet none has been prosecuted. Take another breather to imagine how the IGP would have reacted if the thugs had no state’s backing.
The military’s massacre of Shiite members who obstructed the Chief of Army Staff’s convey should give you a clear sense of how the IGP would have probably reacted, if the thugs were not operating under the authority of the powers that be. However, subjecting the personality of the IGP to ridicule in a bid to win elections is a bad precedence with devastating consequences. Politicians need to desist from sacrificing the image and efficiency of national institutions on the altar of politics.
IGP Adamu stated that the policemen that colluded with thugs to disrupt the Kogi and Bayelsa elections were fake policemen. Nigerians are wondering how fake policemen, if any, overpowered the over 60,000 trained policemen deployed for the elections. Does it imply that fake policemen have better strategy and weapon than the real police? Assuming, but not conceding that fake policemen committed the anomalies, was the police helicopter that dropped canisters and opened fire on voters in PDP strongholds piloted by fake policemen? The IGP should come up with a better excuse or apologize for failing Nigerians.
Police announced making eleven arrests, but none were paraded. Many wonders why the same police that’s always eager to parade criminal suspects is reluctant to parade the electoral offenders. Besides, was it just the eleven persons arrested that perpetrated the extreme violence reported across the 21 local governments in Kogi state? It is most disheartening that the same police that couldn’t provide adequate security in just two states reigned terror on non-violent IPOB members, Shiite devotees and Revolution Now protesters.
INEC and the security agencies failed in every respect. Their inefficiencies significantly make Nigerian elections a democratic deficit. In Kogi and Bayelsa, electoral fraud prevailed despite INEC’s promise of a free, fair and credible election. Violence prevailed despite the deployment of over 60,000 police officers and crime fighting equipment such as armoured tanks and surveillance helicopters.
Vote-buying prevailed despite the deployment of officers of the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Both agencies made no arrest, despite extensive video evidences showing the face of vote buyers and sellers. Clandestine moves to disrupt the electoral process went undetected, and were freely perpetrated, despite the deployment of officers from the Department of State Security (DSS).
Election in Nigeria is one of the most expensive in the world, but far from being the most credible. No less than nine persons met their death during the Kogi and Bayelsa polls. A police officer, a youth corps member, Senator Dino Melaye’s nephew, and Kogi PDP women leader were among those unfortunate. APC needs to caution its members has the opposition parties lack federal might, a major instrument needed to perpetrate violence and electoral fraud.
Elections can’t be credible without the political will to make it happen. Nigerian government must put measures in place to forestall the use of illegal approaches to win elections. Such measures could include reducing the premium on political offices, signing the amended electoral bill into law, revamping the security architecture, and establishing an independent electoral offences commission.
Appraising the Pundit’s Verdict
It is habitual for the writer, hereafter titled Pundit, to foretell the outcome of elections. Notable among his several accurate predictions is foretelling ex-President Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. The Pundit foretold President Buhari’s re-election in 2019, against the prediction of reputable global institutions such as Williams and Associates, and The Economist. He also accurately foretold the outcome of the 2019 governorship election in 23 out of 29 states.
Despite his serial accurate predictions, the pundit’s prognosis of the elections in focus was not a totally good outing. Foreseen, but unprecedented violence and electoral fraud mainly forbid some of his predictions from coming to pass. In a piece titled “Kogi and Bayelsa 2019 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome”, the Pundit predicted Duoye Diri’s (PDP) win in Bayelsa, but he lost. PDP’s Dino Melaye also failed to win the Kogi West senatorial rerun on the first vote as predicted. The election ended inconclusive. However, APC’s Yahaya Bello ‘won’ the Kogi governorship election as predicted, although not by rerun.
In truth, the pundit never saw APC’s win in Bayelsa coming. His prediction was mainly flawed by ex-president Jonathan’s secret endorsement of APC candidate, David Lyon. Although there were words on the street, the pundit believed Jonathan won’t work against his lifelong party, the PDP. This made him assert that “politics is an interest driven game; hence it is not impossible, but most unlikely that Jonathan would support APC. This is premised on the manner the party has disparaged him since he lost power in 2015.”
The pundit was wrong on Jonathan. He assumed the ex-president won’t support APC despite the dispute between him and Governor Seriake Dickson, his estranged godson. Jonathan acted like his erstwhile godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo. Despite unilaterally bringing Jonathan to power under the PDP, Obasanjo facilitated his defeat in 2015 by backing the APC. The party (APC) praised Obasanjo to high heavens, but abandoned him shortly after forming government. Jonathan’s romance with APC may also not end well. He may also get the Obasanjo treatment.
Another factor the pundit failed to consider during prediction is the (ex)militants endorsement of Lyon. Bayelsa is the den of dreaded militants who have the power to influence the outcome of elections. But then again, PDP has been governing Bayelsa since 1999, hence it is not amiss to think, in structure and strength, “PDP is in Bayelsa, what APC is in Lagos”. Moreover, the judicial invalidation of APC’s candidacy before the election naturally made winning an unattainable height, but the party pulled off a surprise.
INEC declared the Kogi West senatorial poll inconclusive with Smart Adeyemi (APC) leading Dino Melaye (PDP) with over 20,000 votes. As earlier discussed, the Kogi senatorial and governorship poll is a daylight robbery and fiery of public sovereignty. The pundit strongly stands by his prediction analysis and assertion that Melaye (PDP) would defeat Adeyemi (APC) in a free, fair and credible contest.
The pundit foretold Bello’s emergence as governor-elect in Kogi state based on his disposition to violence and electoral fraud. In the prediction piece, the pundit explicitly stated that “In a free, fair and credible contest, PDP’s Musa Wada would defeat APC’s Yahaya Bello. But the election is not going to be free; not going to be fair; and not going to be credible. Thugs would disperse voters and smash ballot boxes in Wada’s stronghold. The security agencies won’t arrest disruptors, and would be grossly partisan.” The lines came to pass exactly as foretold.
Nigerians never assumed Bello could bizarrely unleash violence on those he aspired to govern. The poor performing governor ingeniously took violence from the realm of creating inconclusive elections to straight win. His conduct ratifies the pundit’s argument that “he’s not deserving of governorship or any other position.” Bello’s insatiable thirst for power made him throw caution to the wind. He eventually got the power, but earned negative fame. The 44-year-old ruined his presidential prospect and wrote his name in the wrong page of history. Blessed is the one who defines Nigerian election as a process where thugs decide, police support, INEC declares, and the court affirm.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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