Feature/OPED
Nigerian Elections: A Democratic Deficit
By Omoshola Deji
First Osun, then Kano and now Kogi and Bayelsa States. The spate of violence during election brings doubt on Nigeria’s ability to get it right. Unlike other nations, Nigeria seems to have no magic formula; no means of solving a problem without creating another.
Democracy initially seemed an opportunity to annihilate tyranny, but has instead increased it. Rule of law, freedom of speech and other democratic ethics are consistently being violated by the ruling elites and “converted democrat”. Nigeria is fast becoming the worst country for democracy as franchise have become an object of attack. This piece appraises the flaws of Nigerian elections, particularly the Kogi and Bayelsa governorship poll, and the pundit’s verdict.
The people of Kogi and Bayelsa trooped out on November 16 to elect their choice for the state’s top job. The exercise which should ordinarily be civil and peaceful was marred by unprecedented violence and electoral fraud. Gun-wielding thugs, aided by the security agencies, disrupted the electoral process from which Nigeria’s democracy is supposed to grow.
Perhaps those in positions of authority misconstrued duty as favour. In a democracy, individuals are morally responsible to vote their conscience, and government is duty-bound to provide the enabling environment, ensuring the wish of the majority prevails. Once the environment is not enabling, the outcome of an important exercise such as election cannot be taken as the wish of the majority. Factoring this in, although Yahaya Bello of Kogi state and David Lyon of Bayelsa were return elected, they did not win the election. This by no means underestimate their ability to win in a credible contest.
Repression of opposition candidates, their supporters and polling agents made the elections a democratic deficit. In Kogi state, incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello of the All Progressives Congress (APC) commanded violence on his contenders. Stalwarts of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) were routinely harassed, injured and killed. Thugs invaded their homes, vandalized them, and set some ablaze. Several cars and valuables were destroyed, forcing the targets to go into hiding. This destabilized PDP and SDP from making last minutes canvassing to woo undecided voters; giving APC an unfair advantage. The attack surprisingly continued even after APC ‘won’. Thugs set the home of a PDP women leader ablaze and callously watch her burn to ashes.
Suppression of voters is also one of the unholy strategies APC employed. The party carefully studied the voting pattern of both states, ignite violence in opposition strongholds, but protected hers. In Kogi, election proceeded smoothly in the Central district where Bello hails from, while the East and West were confronted with extreme violence. In Bayelsa, people were restrained from voting in Southern Ijaw where PDP is likely to garner majority vote. The party was also stifled in Nembe. The outturn of both elections suggests APC has devised different illicit strategies for winning elections. Repression and suppression are autocratic tenets, a breach of the fundamental principle of fairness that must be adhered to in a democracy.
Disenfranchisement made the elections a democratic deficit. Violence and intimidation denied eligible voters the opportunity to cast their ballot. Fear kept people indoor while majority of those who turned up scampered for safety as thugs attack opposition strongholds in Kogi. Many lost their votes via ballot-box snatching. In Bayelsa, the Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth & Advancement, popularly called YIAGA Africa reports that INEC announced falsified results and election did not hold in 24 percent of the state’s polling units. Disenfranchising such a significant percentage of the population utterly discredits the outcome of the election. How do we pacify the 24 percent whose preferred candidates lost because they were denied the opportunity to vote? Such inequity makes the election a democratic deficit.
Monetary inducement of voters and electoral officers made the elections a democratic deficit. Agents of the dominant parties, particularly the APC and PDP always offer cash for votes, and did so in Kogi and Bayelsa states. They shared between N500 to N3000, although APC outspend the PDP, being the ruling party at the federal level.
Two categories of persons should be criticized for vote-buying, but Nigerians mostly condemn one; they blame the buyers (politicians) and absolve the sellers (voters). Vote-buying has become so prevalent that majority of the electorate expect to be tipped for voting. But then, should we blame the poor voters for demanding a continuation of what the parties started? Nonetheless, Nigerians need to be enlightened that politicians are descendants of the devil; they have no free gift. Vote-buying is a business and politicians who invest in the trade must recoup their money and make extraordinary profits, hence the prevalence of under-performing governments.
Electoral fraud and INEC’s partisanship made the elections a democratic deficit. An electoral umpire must be impartial to all contending parties, but INEC fell short. In Bayelsa, election materials stolen by APC thugs surfaced during collation and INEC allegedly record the votes. The umpire announced bogus results in favor of APC in Sagbama, Ogbia, Nembe, and Southern Ijaw. It’s baffling how these troubled spots returned high votes; the Borno 2015 template was apparently revived. How could the result of Nembe – a troubled spot where people would naturally abstain from voting – reflect over 80 percent turnout, while the result of a peaceful area such as Yenagoa, the state capital reflects less than 40 percent turnout? Such result is a clear indication of electoral fraud.
Electoral fraud was rife, but INEC lacks the courage to wield the big stick, especially against APC. In Kogi state, armed thugs, aided by the security agencies, manipulated the poll in favour of APC. Ballot boxes were either carted away, destroyed, or changed with already thumb-printed ones. To Nigerians dismay, INEC counted the false votes rather than cancel the results of the affected polling units. To top it all off, bogus figures were awarded in favour of APC in crisis-ridden areas and spaces PDP has fair support. For instance, INEC claimed APC scored 112,764 votes, while PDP only garnered 139 votes in Okene local government of Kogi State. This cannot be true.
A party with structure and spread like the PDP can’t garner such a paltry vote at a time Kogites were determined to sack Bello’s failed government. The bizarre result is a reflection of the extreme rigging perpetrated in almost every area of the state. In a credible contest, even SDP’s Akpoti would garner more than 139 votes in Okene. It is perturbing PDP didn’t score such a paltry vote during the Lagos 2019 governorship election. Please bear in mind that although the revenue generated in Lagos state is incommensurable with its rate of development, Akinwunmi Ambode’s administration performed much better than that of Bello in Kogi. Yet the godfather denied him return ticket, but supported Bello.
Unprofessional and partisan conduct of the security agencies made the elections a democratic deficit. Over 60,000 police officers and crime fighting equipment were deployed for the Bayelsa and Kogi governorship elections. Yet violence prevailed. The military compromised the election in Bayelsa, while police jeopardized the exercise in Kogi. Policemen accosted gun-wielding thugs to polling units across Kogi West and East district to snatch or stuff ballot boxes, attack opposition figures, and distribute money to APC agents. The thugs moved freely with vehicles despite restriction of movement, manipulating and destabilizing the election.
APC agents operated under massive protection while that of PDP and other opposition parties were left in the cold. Recall that prior to the election, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Natasha Akpoti’s campaign office was looted and destroyed by alleged APC thugs, but the perpetrators weren’t arrested. Take a breather to imagine how the security agencies, the state government and the presidency would have reacted if such happens to any APC secretariat.
At the venue of the Peace Accord signing meeting, Akpoti and her aides were molested, her campaign vehicles were destroyed by APC thugs, while the police looked on. The raging thugs disrupted the meeting, which had several dignitaries present, including Mohammed Adamu, the Inspector General of Police (IGP). Yet none has been prosecuted. Take another breather to imagine how the IGP would have reacted if the thugs had no state’s backing.
The military’s massacre of Shiite members who obstructed the Chief of Army Staff’s convey should give you a clear sense of how the IGP would have probably reacted, if the thugs were not operating under the authority of the powers that be. However, subjecting the personality of the IGP to ridicule in a bid to win elections is a bad precedence with devastating consequences. Politicians need to desist from sacrificing the image and efficiency of national institutions on the altar of politics.
IGP Adamu stated that the policemen that colluded with thugs to disrupt the Kogi and Bayelsa elections were fake policemen. Nigerians are wondering how fake policemen, if any, overpowered the over 60,000 trained policemen deployed for the elections. Does it imply that fake policemen have better strategy and weapon than the real police? Assuming, but not conceding that fake policemen committed the anomalies, was the police helicopter that dropped canisters and opened fire on voters in PDP strongholds piloted by fake policemen? The IGP should come up with a better excuse or apologize for failing Nigerians.
Police announced making eleven arrests, but none were paraded. Many wonders why the same police that’s always eager to parade criminal suspects is reluctant to parade the electoral offenders. Besides, was it just the eleven persons arrested that perpetrated the extreme violence reported across the 21 local governments in Kogi state? It is most disheartening that the same police that couldn’t provide adequate security in just two states reigned terror on non-violent IPOB members, Shiite devotees and Revolution Now protesters.
INEC and the security agencies failed in every respect. Their inefficiencies significantly make Nigerian elections a democratic deficit. In Kogi and Bayelsa, electoral fraud prevailed despite INEC’s promise of a free, fair and credible election. Violence prevailed despite the deployment of over 60,000 police officers and crime fighting equipment such as armoured tanks and surveillance helicopters.
Vote-buying prevailed despite the deployment of officers of the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Both agencies made no arrest, despite extensive video evidences showing the face of vote buyers and sellers. Clandestine moves to disrupt the electoral process went undetected, and were freely perpetrated, despite the deployment of officers from the Department of State Security (DSS).
Election in Nigeria is one of the most expensive in the world, but far from being the most credible. No less than nine persons met their death during the Kogi and Bayelsa polls. A police officer, a youth corps member, Senator Dino Melaye’s nephew, and Kogi PDP women leader were among those unfortunate. APC needs to caution its members has the opposition parties lack federal might, a major instrument needed to perpetrate violence and electoral fraud.
Elections can’t be credible without the political will to make it happen. Nigerian government must put measures in place to forestall the use of illegal approaches to win elections. Such measures could include reducing the premium on political offices, signing the amended electoral bill into law, revamping the security architecture, and establishing an independent electoral offences commission.
Appraising the Pundit’s Verdict
It is habitual for the writer, hereafter titled Pundit, to foretell the outcome of elections. Notable among his several accurate predictions is foretelling ex-President Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. The Pundit foretold President Buhari’s re-election in 2019, against the prediction of reputable global institutions such as Williams and Associates, and The Economist. He also accurately foretold the outcome of the 2019 governorship election in 23 out of 29 states.
Despite his serial accurate predictions, the pundit’s prognosis of the elections in focus was not a totally good outing. Foreseen, but unprecedented violence and electoral fraud mainly forbid some of his predictions from coming to pass. In a piece titled “Kogi and Bayelsa 2019 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome”, the Pundit predicted Duoye Diri’s (PDP) win in Bayelsa, but he lost. PDP’s Dino Melaye also failed to win the Kogi West senatorial rerun on the first vote as predicted. The election ended inconclusive. However, APC’s Yahaya Bello ‘won’ the Kogi governorship election as predicted, although not by rerun.
In truth, the pundit never saw APC’s win in Bayelsa coming. His prediction was mainly flawed by ex-president Jonathan’s secret endorsement of APC candidate, David Lyon. Although there were words on the street, the pundit believed Jonathan won’t work against his lifelong party, the PDP. This made him assert that “politics is an interest driven game; hence it is not impossible, but most unlikely that Jonathan would support APC. This is premised on the manner the party has disparaged him since he lost power in 2015.”
The pundit was wrong on Jonathan. He assumed the ex-president won’t support APC despite the dispute between him and Governor Seriake Dickson, his estranged godson. Jonathan acted like his erstwhile godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo. Despite unilaterally bringing Jonathan to power under the PDP, Obasanjo facilitated his defeat in 2015 by backing the APC. The party (APC) praised Obasanjo to high heavens, but abandoned him shortly after forming government. Jonathan’s romance with APC may also not end well. He may also get the Obasanjo treatment.
Another factor the pundit failed to consider during prediction is the (ex)militants endorsement of Lyon. Bayelsa is the den of dreaded militants who have the power to influence the outcome of elections. But then again, PDP has been governing Bayelsa since 1999, hence it is not amiss to think, in structure and strength, “PDP is in Bayelsa, what APC is in Lagos”. Moreover, the judicial invalidation of APC’s candidacy before the election naturally made winning an unattainable height, but the party pulled off a surprise.
INEC declared the Kogi West senatorial poll inconclusive with Smart Adeyemi (APC) leading Dino Melaye (PDP) with over 20,000 votes. As earlier discussed, the Kogi senatorial and governorship poll is a daylight robbery and fiery of public sovereignty. The pundit strongly stands by his prediction analysis and assertion that Melaye (PDP) would defeat Adeyemi (APC) in a free, fair and credible contest.
The pundit foretold Bello’s emergence as governor-elect in Kogi state based on his disposition to violence and electoral fraud. In the prediction piece, the pundit explicitly stated that “In a free, fair and credible contest, PDP’s Musa Wada would defeat APC’s Yahaya Bello. But the election is not going to be free; not going to be fair; and not going to be credible. Thugs would disperse voters and smash ballot boxes in Wada’s stronghold. The security agencies won’t arrest disruptors, and would be grossly partisan.” The lines came to pass exactly as foretold.
Nigerians never assumed Bello could bizarrely unleash violence on those he aspired to govern. The poor performing governor ingeniously took violence from the realm of creating inconclusive elections to straight win. His conduct ratifies the pundit’s argument that “he’s not deserving of governorship or any other position.” Bello’s insatiable thirst for power made him throw caution to the wind. He eventually got the power, but earned negative fame. The 44-year-old ruined his presidential prospect and wrote his name in the wrong page of history. Blessed is the one who defines Nigerian election as a process where thugs decide, police support, INEC declares, and the court affirm.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via mo******@***oo.com
Feature/OPED
A Tale of Two Kidnappings
By Tony Ogunlowo
In the past few weeks, two high-profile kidnapping cases have captured the attention of the nation. One involved the kidnapping of more than 45 pupils and teachers from a school in Oyo state, and the other involved the relatives of an ex-minister.
Whilst the relatives of the ex-minister, his sister and her two sons, were rescued in a highly publicised police operation, the fate of the missing school children and their teachers remains unclear. Already two teachers have been killed: one was shot and the other beheaded.
Nigeria is a hotbed for kidnapping, and in 2025 alone, there were more than 4,000 reported cases. But bear in mind that for every case recorded, two or three went unreported, leaving relatives to deal with ransom demands on their own. And for cases reported, the overstretched and understaffed police are not much help and often suggest relatives negotiate with kidnappers. As a result, what was once a small sore has now festered, becoming an even bigger wound and growing.
It has been more than twelve years since 276 girls were kidnapped from their school in Chibok. To date, not all of them have been recovered. Some have died whilst others, heavily traumatised, have been found bearing children of their captors: their lives destroyed and those of their families.
The swift rescue of the ex-ministers’ relatives in a short window of just a few days points to one thing – elitism! If you’re well-connected, the powers that be will pull out all the stops to do what they’re supposed to be doing in the first place. If you’re a mere ordinary citizen, they can’t be bothered.
Even though the Federal Government has a policy of not negotiating with kidnappers, which is understandable since they don’t want to encourage the practice, they should have the means to end the scourge. Every government from the Obasanjo regime up to the incumbent have promised to take a hard line on abductions and banditry. To date, all that hardline rhetoric has just been ‘audio’, leaving bandits and kidnappers to get up to all sorts of things. There have been calls to allow citizens to take up arms: not a good idea, as this might encourage extrajudicial killings rather than for self-defence. There have also been calls for stiffer penalties, but, yet again, you need to catch the perpetrators first and make sure they don’t bribe their way out of the judicial system. The Forest Guards program is taking off, and hundreds of them are being recruited, trained and deployed, but are they paramilitary trained to be able to fight kidnappers in the bush?
Just like when the Chibok girls went missing under President Goodluck’s watch, the government is taking a lukewarm approach to the matter. What should be classified as a top priority has been pushed to the bottom of the list as all politicians rush to get their nomination forms in for the 2027 elections: the only thing that matters to them. If this were America, Trump would have mobilised the Army, Navy, Air Force, CIA, and whatever else he could think of to find ALL kidnapped victims. In Nigeria, the only thing politicians are interested in, their top priority, is re-election.
Children’s Day has come and gone, and so also has Democracy Day, as we head towards Independence Day, and somebody’s child, uncle, aunt, husband is still being held against their will with the security services running around like headless chickens, clueless as to what to do next. What happened to their network of informers? Are their surveillance techniques so primitive that they can’t locate a large gathering of people in the bush? Surely contact has been made with all kidnappers so they can list their demands, and why haven’t these leads been tracked using basic cellular telephony technology? But if it’s an ex-minister’s relative, they know how to pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Until the government adopts a zero-tolerance policy towards kidnapping and banditry – and sticks to it, these unfortunate incidents will continue.
Perhaps it’s time to seek foreign assistance since we don’t know what to do: already, Trump has stationed US troops, up North, to help us fight Boko Haram and ISIS. They already have the technology and personnel that can find a fly hiding behind a dune in the Sahara. An ordinary Air Force surveillance plane, or drone, equipped with heat-seeking infra-red cameras, overflying the place at night can easily find anyone hiding out in the Old Oyo park within hours, not days. And please don’t involve the NAF, who seem to bomb more innocent people than bad guys! Alternatively, bring in Sheikh Gumi, who seems to know most of the bandits. He might be able to help.
There is no easy fix to ending insecurity in Nigeria other than to bring in a brutal state of emergency that will grant security services carte blanche to deal with situations as they see fit. Again, this can lead to abuse of power, as was the case with the disbanded SARS.
To truly eliminate all insecurity in the country, the government needs to think long-term and go back to the root cause of all these problems – hunger. A hungry man (or woman) faced with unemployment and a high cost of living, with nothing to lose, will be crazy enough to do any kind of crime to put food on the table and a roof above his head. Doubling the size of the security services and equipping them doesn’t solve the problem.
Feature/OPED
Democracy and Problems; Made in Nigeria
By Prince Charles Dickson (PhD), and Dorcas Bawa
Nigeria’s democratic question is often wrongly framed as if democracy is a foreign garment that we must keep adjusting until it fits our body. We speak of Westminster, Washington, Athens, Paris and every borrowed vocabulary of governance, yet the wound before us is neither Greek nor British nor American. It is Nigerian. Our hunger is Nigerian. Our insecurity is Nigerian. Our broken families are Nigerian. Our abandoned children are Nigerian. Our vote-buying, ethno-religious suspicion, weak local institutions, elite impunity and democratic impatience are Nigerian. Therefore, any democracy that will heal us must be made in Nigeria.
This is not a call for isolation. It is a call for ownership. Democracy cannot survive as imported furniture placed in a burning house. It must grow from our values, culture, history and realities. It must be owned by the people, shaped by our communities, and driven by our collective aspirations for justice, equity and peace. It must answer the question of the farmer in Bassa, the displaced woman in Barkin Ladi, the market woman in Jos, the young person in Mangu, the traditional ruler trying to hold a fractured community together, the child who no longer trusts the home, and the citizen who has voted many times but has not yet felt government as care.
Since 1999, Nigeria has travelled a long and uneven democratic road. The return to civil rule after years of military dictatorship was not a small achievement. It restored constitutional government, reopened civic space, revived political parties, strengthened the press, expanded civil society engagement, and gave citizens the language with which to question power. We have had repeated elections, transitions between administrations, legislative contests, judicial interventions, public protests, investigative journalism and a growing generation of young Nigerians who no longer kneel before authority simply because it wears a title.
These are gains. They must not be dismissed.
But democracy is not merely the presence of elections. It is the presence of dignity. It is not only the counting of votes. It is the counting of lives. It is not complete because politicians campaign, courts sit, governors are sworn in, and budgets are read. Democracy becomes real when the weakest person in the community can say: “This country sees me. This system protects me. This government serves me.”
That is where our democratic journey remains painfully unfinished.
From 1999 to date, Nigeria has built the rituals of democracy faster than the culture of democracy. We have mastered rallies, slogans, posters, primaries, manifestoes, defections and inauguration ceremonies, but we have not sufficiently mastered accountability, inclusion, local ownership, civic discipline and justice. Too much power remains concentrated at the centre. Too many local governments exist more as salary points than as engines of grassroots development. Too many communities are remembered only during elections, condolences or conflict assessment visits. Too many citizens are mobilised as voters but abandoned as human beings.
Democracy made in Nigeria must therefore begin with the people at the centre. Government exists to serve the people, not the other way around. A system that treats citizens as spectators between election cycles is not a democracy. It is a political theatre with ballot boxes. A homegrown democracy insists that the woman, the youth, the person with disability, the displaced, the farmer, the trader, the child, the minority voice and the forgotten community are not footnotes in the national story. They are the story.
To be homegrown, democracy must also be rooted in culture, but not in the abusive misuse of culture. It must respect our languages, traditions, communal memory and ways of life, while refusing every cultural excuse for injustice. Culture should be a bridge, not a cage. It should protect the vulnerable, not silence them. It should teach respect for elders, but also responsibility by elders. It should honour family, but never hide violence inside family walls. It should value community, but never allow community loyalty to bury truth.
The crisis of Nigerian democracy is not only in Abuja. It is also in the home. It is in the family meeting where girls are denied inheritance. It is in the compound where abuse is covered because the offender is related. It is in marriage where responsibility is abandoned. It is in the neighbourhood where everyone knows a child is suffering but waits for the “government” to arrive. It is in the community where young people are recruited into dangerous labour because poverty has become an employer. It is in the silence that violence teaches how to grow teeth.
A recent week in the Plateau State Gender and Equal Opportunities Commission, particularly the Public Complaints and Mediation Department, tells a disturbing story. In one case, a sixteen-year-old schoolgirl became pregnant after alleged abuse within her own home. In another case, an eight-year-old girl from Tudun Wada was brought before the Commission after an alleged sexual assault by a neighbour. Her story was already layered with tragedy: displacement, loss of parents to violence, and dependence on an aged grandmother. Another ten-year-old child had to be reunited with her family in Enugu Agidi after two years of maltreatment while living with a distant relative in Jos. She required psychosocial support before returning home.
In the same week, an illegal commercial motor park around Anguldi in Jos South Local Government Area was reported. The Police were swiftly deployed, and arrests were made. Twelve young people, including three young women, were brought to the Commission. Early interrogation suggested a troubling pattern: the park operated weekly, moving young teenagers from Jos to Ibadan.
These are not isolated moral accidents. They are democratic alarms. But the entire team somehow collectively succeed because they understand the terrain.
Conflict does not end when gunfire stops. It enters homes. It alters parenting. It displaces children. It weakens supervision. It breaks livelihoods. It creates fear, dependency, resentment and desperation. A society that does not heal its conflict will eventually watch that conflict migrate into marriage, childhood, education, labour, politics and faith. The family becomes the first casualty, and later, the polling unit becomes only a mirror of the wounded home.
This is why democracy cannot be discussed only in constitutional language. It must be discussed in human language. When family values erode, democracy suffers. When parental responsibility collapses, democracy suffers. When the culture of respect for human dignity becomes almost non-existent, democracy suffers. When children are unsafe, women are overburdened, fathers disappear from responsibility, mothers are left unsupported, and communities outsource morality to government agencies, democracy becomes a tree without roots.
The problems holding us back are therefore clear. We continue to operate systems that often ignore local realities. We suffer from the concentration of power and the lack of accountability. Our local institutions are weak. Our democratic culture is poor. Tribalism, ethnicity and religious intolerance are too easily weaponised. Many citizens are apathetic because they have been disappointed too often. Others are active only when their group interest is touched. But a person who participates decides their destiny. A person who watches politics from the balcony should not be shocked when decisions are taken in rooms where they are absent.
Homegrown democracy must be community-driven. Decisions must be shaped at the local level through dialogue, consensus and trust. Nigeria cannot continue to pretend that Abuja can understand every stream, shrine, church, mosque, market, grazing route, school, boundary dispute and family wound better than the people who live with them daily. Local problems require local intelligence. But local intelligence must be connected to justice, not captured by local power brokers.
This is why traditional rulers, community heads, women leaders, youth groups, faith leaders, civil society organisations, government agencies, schools, security institutions and families must become democratic actors, not passive observers. Democracy is not INEC alone. It is not the National Assembly alone. It is not the courts alone. Democracy is the mother who protects her child, the father who carries responsibility with honour, the neighbour who reports abuse, the teacher who notices distress, the police officer who acts promptly, the mediator who listens carefully, the traditional ruler who refuses to hide wrongdoing, the pastor and imam who preach dignity, and the citizen who refuses to sell tomorrow for a small envelope today.
Finally, we must rebuild the moral architecture of the family. Mothers, fathers, guardians, relatives and neighbours must rise to nip these issues in the bud. The home is not outside democracy. The home is where citizenship first learns either care or cruelty. If the child learns silence in the face of abuse, she may become an adult who fears power. If the child learns dignity, he may become a citizen who demands justice.
Our country. Our democracy. Our future—May Nigeria win.
Feature/OPED
A Gallows Called Northern Nigeria
By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD
Believe whatever you want, but this government was not, is not, and sadly will not be serious about securing the lives and properties of Nigerians, which is its core and fundamental responsibility, unless citizens demand accountability and consequences for failure. Whatever they say is far from the reality on the ground. More troubling is the apparent complacency of many northern elites who seem to believe they are insulated from the insecurity consuming the region. Oh, how mistaken they are. It will surely reach their doorstep if they don’t do something about it; make no mistake about it.
Across Northern Nigeria, insecurity has evolved from a periodic challenge into a defining feature of daily life. Despite rising security expenditures and repeated assurances from those in authority, banditry, insurgency, kidnappings, cattle rustling, and communal conflicts continue to devastate communities. Thousands have lost their lives, countless others have been displaced, and many farming communities have either been abandoned or are operating under constant threat. While political and administrative centres often enjoy relative security, ordinary citizens in rural areas continue to bear the heaviest burden of the crisis. This growing disconnect has reinforced the perception that those in power are detached from the realities confronting the people they govern.
And then came the painful news of General Rabe Abubakar’s death; a tragedy that lays bare the helplessness consuming our region. For nearly two weeks, a retired General and his wife vanished into the shadows of Northern Nigeria, yet the vast security architecture of the state could neither locate nor rescue them. One cannot help but imagine the long, agonising days they endured: waiting, hoping, praying that help was on its way. But help never came. A man who once dedicated his life to defending this nation met his end in captivity, while his loved ones and an anxious public waited for a miracle that never arrived. If a General could disappear for days with no rescue in sight, what hope remains for the ordinary farmer, trader, teacher, or student whose name will never make the headlines? His death is not merely a personal tragedy; it is a haunting symbol of a North where even those who once stood at the pinnacle of the security establishment are no longer beyond the reach of the monster that has been allowed to grow unchecked.
The North has become a giant gallows; If you are residing in Northern Nigeria today, you are just waiting to be killed, somehow, someday…until we radically and collectively take this monster head-on by addressing the issue of out-of-school children, scrapping completely the almajiri system, reviving parental and societal values and responsibilities, enforcing birth control, and creating jobs for our teeming youths via agriculture and by reviving our comatose industries, we will not come out of this madness masked as insurgency, banditry, and kidnappings.
The roots of this crisis run much deeper than the activities of armed groups. Northern Nigeria carries the largest burden of out-of-school children in the country, leaving millions of young people without the education, skills, and opportunities necessary to build productive lives. The Almajiri system, once a respected institution for Islamic learning, has in many places deteriorated into a mechanism that exposes children to neglect, poverty, and exploitation. Thousands of young boys roam the streets without adequate parental care, formal education, or vocational training, making them vulnerable to recruitment by criminal and extremist networks.
Demographic pressure further compounds the problem. Many northern states continue to record high fertility rates while struggling to provide sufficient schools, healthcare services, and employment opportunities. The result is a rapidly expanding youth population confronted by limited prospects and widespread unemployment. In such circumstances, criminal gangs and insurgent groups find a steady pool of recruits. Breaking this cycle requires a comprehensive approach that combines educational expansion, meaningful almajiri reform, responsible family planning, youth empowerment, agricultural development, industrial revival, and targeted vocational training programmes. Security operations may suppress violence temporarily, but only social and economic transformation can remove the conditions that sustain it.
A Gallows Called Arewa
But just like the government, the masses are so not ready; they feign oblivion to the reality facing us. They instead channel their energy and time to ‘trending’ celebrity topics and await the next celebrity nude videos/pictures and chats to aimlessly talk about. The celebrities are only after immorality or waiting to endorse the politicians with the highest bid; the traditional rulers are either afraid or consumed by the menace.
This collective distraction has weakened society’s ability to confront its most pressing challenges. While communities suffer from poverty, violence, and underdevelopment, public discourse is often dominated by trivial controversies. Yet the North has repeatedly demonstrated that communities can mobilise when properly organised. Faith-based groups, youth associations, community leaders, and local organisations have played important roles in peacebuilding and conflict resolution in several areas. Reawakening civic consciousness and redirecting public attention toward education, security, and development must therefore become a priority.
The crisis also demands courage from those traditionally entrusted with providing moral, intellectual, and cultural leadership. At critical moments in our history, influential voices helped shape public opinion, challenge injustice, and mobilise communities toward collective action. Today, however, many of those voices appear either absent, intimidated, or resigned to the status quo, creating a leadership vacuum at a time when Northern Nigeria desperately needs guidance.
Our intellectuals have gone back to their shells, and rightly so. Our elders have done their part and are giving up on us. The most painful part is that our religious leaders, who spent time and energy convincing us that this government would usher in a golden age reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire, have disturbingly gone mute; no Al-Qunuts or warnings to the government anymore, since it is not the government of the fisherman from the creek. It makes one wonder if we are normal in Arewa. The northern elites despise their followers like the Israelis despise the Palestinians. Posterity will surely judge us all, and history will tell how we played our parts in the destruction of our beloved Northern Nigeria.
Religious leaders, elders and intellectuals historically provided mediation, moral authority and local governance where the state was weak. Their retreat may stem from fear, co-optation or the erosion of moral credibility. Re-engagement requires rebuilding trust and protecting civic space: establish formal consultative roles for elders and clerics in security and development planning, fund independent intellectual forums, and create interfaith platforms that can speak to social issues without intimidation. When clerics and scholars mobilise—on health, education or peace—public behaviour and policy often follow; restoring their voice is therefore strategic and urgent.
If you want to see all the ingredients of a doomed people, look no further than Northern Nigeria at the moment. Deepening poverty, educational failure, demographic pressure, weak governance, economic stagnation, and persistent insecurity have combined to create a dangerous reality for the region. Yet history shows that decline is not irreversible. Societies facing similar challenges have transformed themselves through long-term investments in education, economic opportunity, accountable governance, and community-led development. Northern Nigeria can do the same if its leaders and people are willing to confront uncomfortable truths and commit themselves to meaningful reform.
The time for lamentation alone has passed. Northern Nigeria requires a deliberate and measurable programme of recovery that places education, economic empowerment, and community security at its centre. Governments must become more transparent and accountable, traditional and religious leaders must reclaim their moral voice, intellectuals must re-enter public discourse, and citizens must demand better leadership. Only through a collective effort that addresses both the symptoms and the root causes of insecurity can the North begin to reverse its decline and build a future worthy of its people.
Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a researcher, writer, and public commentator based in Kaduna State
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