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Nigeria’s 2023 Outlook and the Looming Danger

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Dr. Michael Owhoko Nigeria's 2023 Outlook

By Michael Owhoko, PhD

I am neither a prophet nor a clairvoyant, but from the manifestation in my crystal ball, I see Nigeria in 2023 shaped by upheaval fueled by miseries and hopelessness. Agitation reminiscent of the #EndSARS protests will break out.

Primary triggers are the country’s pathetic economic indices, including growing unemployment, cynical gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and the undiversified weak mono-commodity economy, lacking leadership and managerial oxygen.

Secondary triggers are the dampened economic opportunities induced by nonchalance over worsening corruption, mounting debt burden, crude oil and foreign exchange manipulation, macroeconomic flux, insecurity, hunger, poor electricity supply, and lack of constitutionalism and rule of law.

The tertiary trigger is the unresolved national question pertaining to the incompatibility of the country’s political system and its diverse ethnicities, which is negatively impacting the country’s fundamentals. Put differently, the country’s unitary system is antithetical to a multiethnic society like Nigeria, which undoubtedly, is the root cause of the country’s regression and despairs.

These concerns will transpire immediately after the power transition in May 2023 with increased build-up towards the end of the year and beyond.  This unprecedented development will mark a watershed in the history of Nigeria.

Nigerians are fed up. Suicide cases arising from hunger are on the increase. Over 82 million Nigerians now live on less than $1 a day. At a conservative black-market rate of N580 to a dollar, the average Nigerian survives on less than N580 daily. This amount cannot buy a standard loaf of bread worth N600.  You now know why Nigerians are looking malnourished except for those that have access to the country’s treasury, and the privileged few who are involved in under-the-table transactions, either in the public or private sector.

Nigeria was ranked 103rd out of 116 countries by Global Hunger Index (GHI) as one of the hunger-plagued countries in the world, an indication of the government’s failure to the provision of welfare. Even the World Bank recently affirmed in its 2022 Poverty Assessment Report that 4 out of every 10 Nigerians live below the national poverty line.

The report added further that only 17 per cent of the Nigerian working class earn wages that can lift them out of poverty while the wages of the remaining 83 per cent are too meagre to guarantee exit from the poverty domain.

This is a mirror image of the depth of poverty in the country where some Nigerians go to bed hungry while the majority are unable to afford two quality meals a day, resulting in discontent and frustration. Yet, the country’s GDP is said to be growing, even as the poverty capital of Africa and the World.

Can a growing band of unemployed and idle youths improve a country’s GDP? The majority are not employed, implicitly, are not adding value to the production of goods and services. With no income earned, purchasing power is prostrate. Rather than shrink, GDP is growing. Nigeria’s economy is a study in contradiction.

It is near impossible for a country’s GDP to grow in the face of a corresponding rise in unemployment, particularly among youths who constitute the majority of the workforce. Data for the youth unemployment rate in Nigeria is in the region of 35 per cent, about the highest in the world.

Obviously, this is exacerbated by a lack of creative, determined and visible leadership efforts at addressing this precarious anomaly.

It is unhelpful that figures being published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) do not inspire hope as they contradict market realities. The NBS had said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the last quarter of 2021. Though, an optimistic trajectory, it is a paradox when viewed against the background of an alarming rate of youth unemployment whose input into GDP is paramount.

Look at the number of graduates coming out of universities and other institutions of higher learning yearly, coupled with the country’s skill-less educational curriculum, the rural-urban drift, and the astronomical rise in population, you will understand why all residential streets are busy with high presence of idle youths during working hours. This was not so in the past when the streets were empty and quiet during the day, indicative of people’s presence at work.  Not anymore!

Again, looking at the suffocating inflationary rate, you begin to wonder whether the data deployed by NBS are tested or are just for political show. From the consumer price index (CPI), NBS had said inflation dropped to 15.60 per cent (year-on-year) in January 2022 when compared to 16.47 per cent recorded in January 2021, a reduction of 0.87 per cent. Really? It is imperative NBS officials go to market or grocery shops for personal purchases as part of a feedback mechanism to ascertain firsthand, the real inflation texture in the country.

These economic flaws and the current dysfunctional unitary system of government which has held the country down, preventing states or regions from unleashing their optimum potential, remain a major threat to unity and peace in the country.

The powers that be have conceitedly subjugated as inconsequential, the contending questions. Unfortunately, the hitherto strategy of deceit, repression, oppression and domination aimed at diverting attention from the country’s many woes will not work and will be disrupted in 2023.

Having failed on all fronts of its promises to fix security, economy and corruption, the exit of this administration in 2023, will mark a new era that will usher in renewed agitation for repositioning of Nigeria’s polity for enduring peace and progress.

The gaps created by mismanagement of diversities and the inability to convert opportunities into capital, including failure to take advantage of existing unifying catalysts to strengthen the country’s unity, will deepen the inclination for self-determination in 2023. This may lead to a reshuffling of existing structures aimed at dousing and averting the eruption of bottled-up tension next year.

The year 2023 will also mark a new consciousness among frustrated youths of the ineffectuality of internet fraud (yahoo, yahoo), betting, gambling, drugs and other pseudo-revenue generation mechanisms.  There will be a complete emotional shift based on the new reality that these vices are not solutions to their problems, and may elicit a resolve to take their destinies into their hands.

Indeed, the youths will be more concerned about their dimmed future, which they believe, has been sacrificed on the altar of greed by politicians and those in authority. The impaired vision of the country’s leadership and lack of capacity to design programmes and set priorities to lift the country from its current dark clouds are believed to be chiefly responsible for the deteriorating living conditions of Nigerians.

The reality is that no amount of rejigging of the country’s unitary constitution can make Nigeria work, except it is replaced with a federal structure characterized by fiscal autonomy, where every state or region can freely aspire in line with its capacity and resourcefulness. The current system cannot unite and hold the various nationalities together.

What is fundamental is the real search for a “solution to the disillusion”, to borrow from the great reggae artist, Peter Tosh. It is not about elections and leadership change but about disillusion in the land. The solution is total restructuring based on the 1963 Constitution. This constitution had been tested, and it worked.

The current unitary structure breads corruption, ethnicism, nepotism and misery. That corruption has become a way of life in Nigeria, permeating all strata of government and society, is proof of the country’s chronic and irredeemable state of decay.

Undeniably, the current political structure cannot even pass the Rotary Four-Way Test, if used to measure the sincerity of purpose. Is it the truth? Is it fair to all concerned? Does it build goodwill and better friendship? Is it beneficial to all concerned? The answer is a resonant NO.

This is also the reason why elections and national headcount are difficult to conduct in the country due to competing regional interests for national power, and fear of change to the current balance of power and status quo by benefited sectional power blocs.

Until the country is restructured from the current unitary system to federalism, a game-changing disruption for the realization of a new Nigeria in 2023 is inevitable, and the 1999 Constitution will be the first port of call.

Dr Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based journalist and author, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com

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#LifeAfterLebaran: 5 WhatsApp Hacks to Stay Close with Family After Eid

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WhatsApp Hacks

You’re back home after mudik (homecoming), the suitcases are unpacked, and the excitement of being with family for Eid already feels like a long time ago. But just because Eid is over doesn’t mean the special connection of being with family has to fade. Here are the best group chat features for beating the post-Raya blues.

  1. Keep The Vibe Going by Sharing Ramadan Highlights

  • Keep the Memories Rolling with Status: Your Status feed doesn’t have to go quiet just because you’re back home. Post the most memorable throwback photos from the Eid reunion and add questions to spark responses like “What was your favourite Raya dish?” Add music and stickers to Status to keep the energy alive.

  • Express Yourself with Text Stickers: Turn inside jokes, family slogans, or a favourite Eid quote into a Text Sticker. It’s a quick, personalised way to add some warmth and humour to the group chat.

  • Skip the Stock Cards, Use Meta AI for a Personal Touch: Don’t just send a generic “Hi” or “Good morning” in the family chat. Use Meta AI to make your personalised greeting card or quickly transform a single photo into an animated image to send a heartfelt, animated check-in.

  1. Schedule The Next Reunion

  • Plan Your Next Post-Raya Get-Together: The blues often hit when the fun ends. Keep spirits up by creating a new Event in the group chat right away. Add event reminders so everyone doesn’t miss the opportunity to connect.

  • Schedule a Call, Don’t Just Say “Call Me”: Carry on the family tradition of staying connected, even when you’re miles apart. Tap + then Schedule a call in the Calls tab to lock in a regular “Post-Raya Check-in” video call. Send a reminder so everyone can join on time.

  1. Keep the Raya Spirit Alive by Getting Everyone Involved

  • Assign yourself a fun “tag” in the family group: Are you the one who always ends up cooking? Or the one who plans the itinerary for family trips? Or the master of GIFs who keeps everyone amused? Use the Member Tag feature in the group to give yourself a witty, funny, or practical role—”Next Event Planner” or “Tech Support Guru,” maybe?. Member tags can be customised for each group you’re in.

  • Share a Spontaneous ‘I Miss You’ Video: Did you just see something that reminded you of the reunion? Press and hold the camera icon to record a spontaneous Video Notes message. It’s faster than typing and instantly brings warmth and real-time emotion back into the group.

  1. Digital Hugs: Making the Long-Distance Moment Count

  • Share a Moving Memory: Don’t just send a still photo. Share a Live or Motion Photo to capture the ambient sound and movement of a recent Eid moment. It makes your memories feel more vivid, personal, and real—a perfect antidote to feeling disconnected.

  • Your Group Chat Background: Create a vibe with Meta AI: Don’t settle for a plain background for your family group chat. Use Meta AI to generate unique, custom chat wallpapers that reflect something uniquely memorable to your family: be it food, travel or a sport that unites everyone. Every time you open the chat, you’ll feel the warmth, not the distance.

  1. Make Sure No One Misses Out

No More FOMO: Send the Conversation History: Just added a family member who couldn’t make it to mudik? When adding a new member, you can now send up to 100 recent messages with the Group Message History feature. No need to recap; let them catch up instantly and feel included from the first tap.

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4 Ways AI is Changing How Nigerians Discover Businesses

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Olumide Balogun Google West Africa

By Olumide Balogun

Nigerians are natural explorers. Whether finding the best supplier in Balogun market, hunting down a recipe for party jollof, or looking for the most affordable flight out of Lagos, we are always searching.

Today, human curiosity is expanding, and the way Nigerians express it is evolving. We are speaking to our phones, snapping photos of things we like, and asking incredibly complex questions. For the Nigerian business owner, understanding this shift is a massive opportunity to get discovered by eager customers.

Here are four ways AI is rewriting how Nigerians search, along with simple steps to ensure your business is exactly what they find.

1. Visual Discovery is the New Normal

People are increasingly using their cameras to discover the world around them. Picture someone spotting a brilliant pair of sneakers in traffic and wanting to know exactly where to buy them. Today, shoppers simply take out their phones and search visually.

Tools like Google Lens now process over 25 billion visual searches every single month, and many of these searches are from people looking to make a purchase.

How to adapt: Your product’s visual appeal is paramount. Make sure you upload clear, high-quality images of your products to your website and social media. When a customer snaps a picture of a bag that looks like the one you sell, having great photos ensures your business pops up in their visual search results.

2. Conversations Replace Simple Keywords

Shoppers are asking highly nuanced, conversational questions. They are typing queries like, “Where can I find affordable leather shoes in Ikeja that are open on Sundays and do home delivery?”

To handle these detailed questions, new features like AI Overviews act like a superfast librarian that has read everything on the web. It provides users with a perfectly organised summary and links to dig deeper.

How to adapt: Answer your customers’ questions before they even ask. Create detailed, helpful content on your website and fully update your Google Business Profile. List your opening hours, delivery areas, and unique services clearly. This ensures the technology easily finds your details and recommends your business when a customer asks a highly specific question.

3. Intent Matters More Than Exact Words

Predicting every single word a customer might use to find your product is a huge task for any business owner. Thankfully, modern search technology focuses on the underlying need behind a search.

If someone searches for “how to bring small dogs on flights,” AI understands that the person likely needs to buy an airline-approved pet carrier. The technology looks at the true intent of the shopper.

How to adapt: You no longer need to obsess over guessing exact keywords. By using AI-powered campaigns, you allow the technology to understand your products and match them to the customer’s true needs. Your business will show up for highly relevant searches, bringing you customers who are actively looking for solutions you provide.

4. Smart Assistants Handle the Heavy Lifting

Running a business in Nigeria requires incredible hustle. Managing digital marketing on top of daily operations takes significant time and energy. The next frontier in digital advertising introduces agentic capabilities, which hold a simple promise of delivering better results for your business with much less effort.

The technology now acts as your personalised assistant.

How to adapt: You can simplify your marketing by using the Power Pack of AI-driven campaigns, including Performance Max. You simply provide your business goals, your budget, and your creative assets like photos and videos. The AI automatically finds new, high-value customers across Google Search, YouTube, and the web. It adapts your ads in real time to match exactly what the shopper is looking for, allowing you to focus on running your business.

The language of curiosity is constantly expanding. Nigerians are discovering brands in entirely new ways using cameras, voice notes, and highly specific questions. By understanding these behaviours and embracing helpful AI tools, you can let the technology connect eager customers directly to your digital doorstep.

Olumide Balogun is a Director at Google West Africa

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One SA Bank Equals Nigeria’s Entire Banking Sector – Why Recapitalisation Is Critical for Global Competitiveness

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Nig vs. SA Bank

By Blaise Udunze

Nigeria has always prided itself as Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation. Currently, its banking sector is confronting a moment of truth that should send shockwaves. Today, a single South African bank, Standard Bank Group, commands a market value at roughly $21-22 billion that rivals and, in some comparisons, exceeds the entire Nigerian banking industry. Though it may seem to be unbelievable, it is real. This striking imbalance is not merely about market valuations for individuals who are perturbed by this alarming revelation. Hence, it must be known that this reflects deeper structural challenges in Nigeria’s financial system and underscores why the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalisation drive has become essential for restoring competitiveness, resilience, and global relevance.

Without any iota of doubt, for a nation of over 200 million people and Africa’s largest economy by several metrics, this reality is more than an uncomfortable statistic. This is truly a reflection of deeper structural weaknesses within the financial system. It highlights the urgent need for reform and explains why the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria has become one of the most consequential policy interventions in the country’s banking industry in two decades.

Recapitalisation is not merely a regulatory exercise. If, genuinely, the key stakeholders consider this exercise as an attempt to reposition Nigerian banks to compete with global peers, strengthen financial stability, restore investor confidence, and enable the banking sector to support economic transformation, they must not handle this report with bias.

The disparity between Nigerian and South African banks illustrates the scale of the challenge.

While Standard Bank Group, the largest by assets, has a market capitalisation of roughly R372 billion ($21-22 billion = N32.66 trillion). Similar whooping amounts valued in the multi-billion-dollar range as of 2025 apply to several other South African banks, including FirstRand, Absa Group, and Nedbank. For apt juxtaposition from what is obtainable with the South African bank, the combined market capitalisation of 13 Nigerian banks listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) stood at about N16.14 trillion ($10.87 billion) as of 2025-2026. However, the earlier benchmarks show that around May 2025, it was about N11.07 trillion. The current valuation of N16.14 trillion is a result of the funds tapped by some banks from the capital market through rights issues and public offerings.

Nigeria’s largest banks tell a different story. Guaranty Trust Holding Company, widely regarded as one of Nigeria’s most efficient banks, is valued at less than $2 billion (N3.3 trillion). Access Holdings, despite managing assets exceeding $70 billion, carries a market capitalisation of under $1 billion.

To further buttress Africa’s largest financial institution’s position, as of June 30, 2025, Standard Bank Group of South Africa reported total assets of R3.4 trillion. This amount is equivalent to $191.8 billion, and it points to the fact that it is at the top in Africa’s financial space. The equivalent in naira at Nigeria’s exchange rate of N1,484.50 to $1. Hence, $191.8 billion translates to approximately N284,983 trillion, or roughly N285 trillion. This means a single South African bank now outvalues the entire Nigerian banking industry, when compared to the 10 largest lenders collectively holding N218.99 trillion in assets. Though Nigerian banking industry assets were projected to reach N242.3 trillion ($151.4 billion) by 2025-2026.

The obvious and alarming disconnect between asset size and market value signals a deeper crisis of confidence as enumerated thus far. One underlying mistake is to understand that investors are not merely assessing balance sheets; they are evaluating governance standards, currency stability, regulatory predictability, and long-term growth prospects, as these remain their focal interests. The market’s verdict is clear: Nigerian banks remain undervalued because investors perceive higher systemic risks.

It would be recalled that Nigeria has travelled this road before, in 2004-2006, which didn’t end as planned. The then-governor of the Central Bank, Charles Soludo, launched a bold consolidation reform that reshaped the banking industry. Also, it would be recalled that Nigeria, in numbers, had 89 banks, which were more than what is in operation today, and many of them were small, fragile, and undercapitalised.

Similar steps are being witnessed today, as Soludo then raised the minimum capital base from N2 billion to N25 billion, triggering a wave of mergers and acquisitions that reduced the number of banks to 25. The industry witnessed the emergence of champions as the reform produced stronger institutions, such as Zenith Bank, United Bank for Africa, Guaranty Trust Bank, and Access Bank.

For a period, the experience was that Nigerian banks expanded aggressively across Africa and emerged as formidable competitors on the continent, but unfortunately, the momentum gradually faded because of certain missing pieces, and this must be addressed if the industry is ready for economic relevance.

The global financial crisis of 2008 exposed weaknesses in risk management and regulatory oversight. With the industry reacting, several banks were heavily exposed to the stock market and the oil sector. This led to another wave of reforms under former CBN governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi in 2009.

Although one would say that those interventions stabilised the system. But more harm than good, they also ushered in a more conservative banking culture, as witnessed in the system, where many institutions prioritised survival over innovation.

Two decades after the Soludo reforms, Nigeria’s financial landscape has changed dramatically.

The size of the economy has expanded, inflation has eroded the real value of bank capital, and global regulatory standards have become more demanding. Banks that once appeared adequately capitalised now find themselves operating with limited buffers against economic shocks.

Recognising these vulnerabilities, the CBN introduced a new recapitalisation framework requiring banks to raise their capital bases to the following thresholds: N500 billion for international banks, N200 billion for national banks, and N50 billion for regional banks.

As has always been the case, these requirements are designed to ensure that Nigerian banks possess the financial strength required to compete with institutions in advanced economies.

The Nigerian banking sector should take a new leaf as the recapitalisation exercise comes to an end, with the understanding that capital adequacy is not merely a regulatory metric; it determines how much risk banks can absorb, how much they can lend, and how resilient they remain during economic crises, which must be accompanied by innovation.

In developed financial systems, banks operate with deep capital buffers, which is common with South African banks that allow them to finance infrastructure, industrial projects, and large corporate investments. Without similar capital strength, Nigerian banks cannot effectively support large-scale economic development.

One of the most persistent obstacles facing Nigeria’s banking sector is currency volatility. The Nigerian naira has experienced repeated devaluations in recent years, eroding investor returns and weakening confidence in local financial assets.

When the currency depreciates sharply, equity valuations expressed in dollars decline even if banks report strong profits in local currency. This dynamic partly explains why Nigerian banks appear profitable domestically yet remain undervalued in international markets.

In contrast, South Africa’s financial system benefits from a more stable currency environment and deeper capital markets.

The strength of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange allows South African banks to attract large pools of institutional capital from pension funds, asset managers, and international investors. Nigeria’s financial markets, though improving, remain comparatively shallow.

Another irony in Nigeria’s banking sector is the difference between reported profits and genuine productivity within the economy, and the contradiction is glaring. Though it is known that many Nigerian banks recorded extraordinary profit growth in recent years, partly driven by foreign-exchange revaluation gains following the depreciation of the naira but the contradiction is that such gains do not necessarily reflect improvements in efficiency, innovation, or lending performance.

One measure the apex bank adopted was recognising the risks and restricting banks from paying dividends derived from these gains, insisting they be retained as capital buffers.

This intervention revealed how much of the apparent profitability was linked to currency fluctuations rather than sustainable business growth.

True banking strength lies not in accounting windfalls but in the ability to finance real economic activity, and this should be one of the ongoing recapitalisation targets.

The core function of banks in any economy is to channel savings into productive investment.  Yet Nigerian banks have increasingly shifted toward safer and more profitable activities, such as investing in government securities, which has continued to weigh negatively on the growth of the real economy.

Other mitigating headwinds, such as high interest rates, regulatory uncertainty, and credit risks, discourage lending to manufacturing firms and small businesses. The result is a financial system that often prioritises short-term returns over long-term economic development.

By contrast, South African banks play a more significant role in financing infrastructure projects, corporate expansion, and consumer credit.

Recapitalisation aims to address this imbalance by strengthening banks’ capacity to support the real economy. The fact is that stronger balance sheets will allow Nigerian banks to finance large projects in sectors such as energy, transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing; alas, the narrative is totally different, going by what is obtainable in the Nigerian finance sector when compared to others.

Investor perception is shaped not only by financial performance but also by governance standards. International investors place significant emphasis on transparency, regulatory stability, and corporate accountability.

While Nigerian banks have made relative progress in improving governance frameworks, concerns remain about insider lending, regulatory inconsistencies and complex ownership structures, as these issues have continued to weigh on the industry, while some of these obvious factors may have contributed to the challenges observed in the operations of institutions such as First Bank Plc and another example is the liquidation of Heritage Bank.

Recapitalisation provides an opportunity to strengthen governance by attracting new institutional investors and enforcing stricter disclosure requirements, and not mainly dwelling on the pursuit of bigger capital because capital alone does not guarantee resilience, as it would be recalled that Nigeria has travelled this road before.

Larger, better-capitalised banks tend to operate with more robust governance systems because they face greater scrutiny from regulators and shareholders.

The global banking industry has become increasingly competitive, which should be a wake-up call for the Nigerian banking industry.

Technological innovation, cross-border expansion, and regulatory harmonisation have transformed how financial institutions operate, and this means that African banks, especially in Nigeria, known as the economic giant of Africa, must therefore compete not only with regional peers but also with global players.

Recapitalisation is essential if Nigerian banks are to participate meaningfully in this evolving landscape. On this aspect, it must be emphasised that stronger capital bases will enable banks to invest in digital infrastructure, expand internationally, and develop sophisticated financial products.

Besides, they will also enhance the ability of Nigerian banks to participate in large syndicated loans and international trade financing.

Without adequate capital strength, Nigerian banks risk being marginalised in the global financial system, and for this reason, the CBN must ensure that every dime injected or raised for recapitalisation is genuinely devoid of any form of irregularities.

At the same time, traditional banks face increasing competition from financial technology companies. Nigeria has emerged as one of Africa’s leading fintech hubs, attracting billions of dollars in venture capital investment. These companies are reshaping payments, lending, and digital banking services.

While fintech innovation presents opportunities for collaboration, it also poses a competitive threat to traditional banks. To remain relevant, banks must invest heavily in technology and digital transformation.

The CBN must ensure that the ongoing recapitalisation provides the financial capacity needed to support such investments, just like its counterpart in South Africa’s banking sector, which operates with a large pool of capital.

The success of Nigeria’s recapitalisation programme will depend on more than regulatory mandates, which is a fact that must be taken into cognisance. Since banks must demonstrate a genuine commitment to transparency, innovation, and long-term economic development.

Policymakers must also address the broader macroeconomic environment. Of a truth, the moment Nigeria maintains a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, and predictable regulatory policies, it will be essential to restoring investor confidence, and if aptly implemented effectively, recapitalisation could usher in a new era for Nigeria’s banking sector.

The country does not necessarily need dozens of weak banks competing for limited opportunities. What Nigeria truly needs are just fewer, stronger institutions capable of financing industrialisation, supporting entrepreneurs, and competing globally.

Nigeria often describes itself as the giant of Africa. But size alone does not determine financial strength. The comparison with South Africa’s banking sector serves as a sobering reminder that institutional quality matters far more than population size.

The ongoing recapitalisation exercise, which is due March 31, 2026, represents an opportunity to rebuild Nigeria’s financial architecture and position its banks for global competitiveness.

If the reforms succeed, Nigerian banks could once again emerge as powerful players on the African stage. If they fail, the uncomfortable reality will persist, one South African bank standing taller than an entire Nigerian banking industry.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com

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