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Nigeria’s 2023 Outlook and the Looming Danger

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Dr. Michael Owhoko Nigeria's 2023 Outlook

By Michael Owhoko, PhD

I am neither a prophet nor a clairvoyant, but from the manifestation in my crystal ball, I see Nigeria in 2023 shaped by upheaval fueled by miseries and hopelessness. Agitation reminiscent of the #EndSARS protests will break out.

Primary triggers are the country’s pathetic economic indices, including growing unemployment, cynical gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and the undiversified weak mono-commodity economy, lacking leadership and managerial oxygen.

Secondary triggers are the dampened economic opportunities induced by nonchalance over worsening corruption, mounting debt burden, crude oil and foreign exchange manipulation, macroeconomic flux, insecurity, hunger, poor electricity supply, and lack of constitutionalism and rule of law.

The tertiary trigger is the unresolved national question pertaining to the incompatibility of the country’s political system and its diverse ethnicities, which is negatively impacting the country’s fundamentals. Put differently, the country’s unitary system is antithetical to a multiethnic society like Nigeria, which undoubtedly, is the root cause of the country’s regression and despairs.

These concerns will transpire immediately after the power transition in May 2023 with increased build-up towards the end of the year and beyond.  This unprecedented development will mark a watershed in the history of Nigeria.

Nigerians are fed up. Suicide cases arising from hunger are on the increase. Over 82 million Nigerians now live on less than $1 a day. At a conservative black-market rate of N580 to a dollar, the average Nigerian survives on less than N580 daily. This amount cannot buy a standard loaf of bread worth N600.  You now know why Nigerians are looking malnourished except for those that have access to the country’s treasury, and the privileged few who are involved in under-the-table transactions, either in the public or private sector.

Nigeria was ranked 103rd out of 116 countries by Global Hunger Index (GHI) as one of the hunger-plagued countries in the world, an indication of the government’s failure to the provision of welfare. Even the World Bank recently affirmed in its 2022 Poverty Assessment Report that 4 out of every 10 Nigerians live below the national poverty line.

The report added further that only 17 per cent of the Nigerian working class earn wages that can lift them out of poverty while the wages of the remaining 83 per cent are too meagre to guarantee exit from the poverty domain.

This is a mirror image of the depth of poverty in the country where some Nigerians go to bed hungry while the majority are unable to afford two quality meals a day, resulting in discontent and frustration. Yet, the country’s GDP is said to be growing, even as the poverty capital of Africa and the World.

Can a growing band of unemployed and idle youths improve a country’s GDP? The majority are not employed, implicitly, are not adding value to the production of goods and services. With no income earned, purchasing power is prostrate. Rather than shrink, GDP is growing. Nigeria’s economy is a study in contradiction.

It is near impossible for a country’s GDP to grow in the face of a corresponding rise in unemployment, particularly among youths who constitute the majority of the workforce. Data for the youth unemployment rate in Nigeria is in the region of 35 per cent, about the highest in the world.

Obviously, this is exacerbated by a lack of creative, determined and visible leadership efforts at addressing this precarious anomaly.

It is unhelpful that figures being published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) do not inspire hope as they contradict market realities. The NBS had said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the last quarter of 2021. Though, an optimistic trajectory, it is a paradox when viewed against the background of an alarming rate of youth unemployment whose input into GDP is paramount.

Look at the number of graduates coming out of universities and other institutions of higher learning yearly, coupled with the country’s skill-less educational curriculum, the rural-urban drift, and the astronomical rise in population, you will understand why all residential streets are busy with high presence of idle youths during working hours. This was not so in the past when the streets were empty and quiet during the day, indicative of people’s presence at work.  Not anymore!

Again, looking at the suffocating inflationary rate, you begin to wonder whether the data deployed by NBS are tested or are just for political show. From the consumer price index (CPI), NBS had said inflation dropped to 15.60 per cent (year-on-year) in January 2022 when compared to 16.47 per cent recorded in January 2021, a reduction of 0.87 per cent. Really? It is imperative NBS officials go to market or grocery shops for personal purchases as part of a feedback mechanism to ascertain firsthand, the real inflation texture in the country.

These economic flaws and the current dysfunctional unitary system of government which has held the country down, preventing states or regions from unleashing their optimum potential, remain a major threat to unity and peace in the country.

The powers that be have conceitedly subjugated as inconsequential, the contending questions. Unfortunately, the hitherto strategy of deceit, repression, oppression and domination aimed at diverting attention from the country’s many woes will not work and will be disrupted in 2023.

Having failed on all fronts of its promises to fix security, economy and corruption, the exit of this administration in 2023, will mark a new era that will usher in renewed agitation for repositioning of Nigeria’s polity for enduring peace and progress.

The gaps created by mismanagement of diversities and the inability to convert opportunities into capital, including failure to take advantage of existing unifying catalysts to strengthen the country’s unity, will deepen the inclination for self-determination in 2023. This may lead to a reshuffling of existing structures aimed at dousing and averting the eruption of bottled-up tension next year.

The year 2023 will also mark a new consciousness among frustrated youths of the ineffectuality of internet fraud (yahoo, yahoo), betting, gambling, drugs and other pseudo-revenue generation mechanisms.  There will be a complete emotional shift based on the new reality that these vices are not solutions to their problems, and may elicit a resolve to take their destinies into their hands.

Indeed, the youths will be more concerned about their dimmed future, which they believe, has been sacrificed on the altar of greed by politicians and those in authority. The impaired vision of the country’s leadership and lack of capacity to design programmes and set priorities to lift the country from its current dark clouds are believed to be chiefly responsible for the deteriorating living conditions of Nigerians.

The reality is that no amount of rejigging of the country’s unitary constitution can make Nigeria work, except it is replaced with a federal structure characterized by fiscal autonomy, where every state or region can freely aspire in line with its capacity and resourcefulness. The current system cannot unite and hold the various nationalities together.

What is fundamental is the real search for a “solution to the disillusion”, to borrow from the great reggae artist, Peter Tosh. It is not about elections and leadership change but about disillusion in the land. The solution is total restructuring based on the 1963 Constitution. This constitution had been tested, and it worked.

The current unitary structure breads corruption, ethnicism, nepotism and misery. That corruption has become a way of life in Nigeria, permeating all strata of government and society, is proof of the country’s chronic and irredeemable state of decay.

Undeniably, the current political structure cannot even pass the Rotary Four-Way Test, if used to measure the sincerity of purpose. Is it the truth? Is it fair to all concerned? Does it build goodwill and better friendship? Is it beneficial to all concerned? The answer is a resonant NO.

This is also the reason why elections and national headcount are difficult to conduct in the country due to competing regional interests for national power, and fear of change to the current balance of power and status quo by benefited sectional power blocs.

Until the country is restructured from the current unitary system to federalism, a game-changing disruption for the realization of a new Nigeria in 2023 is inevitable, and the 1999 Constitution will be the first port of call.

Dr Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based journalist and author, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com

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Nigeria’s Olodo Uprising: An Assault on Critical Thinking

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olodo uprising

By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD

A sheep was passing and saw a lion crying inside a cage, trapped and helpless. The lion begged the sheep to rescue him, promising not to kill or eat it. The sheep refused at first, knowing fully well that a lion does not become a vegetarian because of captivity. But after much persuasion, emotional blackmail, and the sheep’s own gullibility, it opened the cage.

Now the lion was very hungry, having stayed in the cage for days without food. It quickly pounced on the sheep and was about to kill and eat it, but the sheep reminded him of his promise.

They were still arguing when other animals came passing. They sought to know what had happened. Both the lion and the sheep narrated their sides of the story, but because of fear, convenience, and a desperate need to gain favour in the lion’s eyes, all the animals took sides with the lion, except the tortoise, who claimed not to understand the whole scenario.

The tortoise asked the lion to show them where exactly he was before the sheep rescued him. The lion pointed at the cage.

The tortoise asked again, “Were you inside or outside when the sheep arrived?”

The lion replied, “I was inside.”

The tortoise then said, “Okay, enter and let us see how difficult it could be inside, because I am not getting the whole scenario.”

The lion entered, and immediately, the tortoise locked the cage. The lion was trapped again.

That story is not just folklore. It is a national diagnosis.

Nigeria today is full of trapped lions, gullible sheep, frightened animals, and very few tortoises. We have many people with opinions, but few with discernment. Many with certificates, but few with comprehension. Many with titles, but few with thought. Many who can quote policy, scripture, law, and ideology, but cannot ask the simple question that prevents disaster: “Wait first, how did we get here?”

That question is the beginning of critical thinking. Sadly, it is becoming an endangered species.

The easiest and most attractive national pastime remains buck-passing, especially with the bunch of leaders we have, some of whom can hardly peel a banana or wash an already white handkerchief. Not many of us want to take responsibility for anything, from personal life to family life, from community life to national life. The blame is always on the system, as if the system descended from the sky and imposed itself on innocent citizens.

We do not need to create demons out of our leaders because, in too many instances, they have behaved like ready-made specimens of public demons. So, we hang our sins on them, sometimes appropriately, sometimes lazily. Unfortunately, their behaviour has made it easy for the critics to descend on them. They shout loudly, lie casually, perform empathy only when cameras are present, and govern as though the people are background noise in their private banquet.

But there is a deeper tragedy. The lion is not our only problem. The sheep, too, must be examined. The other animals must be questioned. Even the silence of the forest must stand trial.

This is where the Olodo Syndrome enters.

In Nigerian street language, “Olodo” is often used to describe a dull person, someone slow to understand, someone who fails where basic reasoning should have saved them. But in this essay, Olodo is not merely the person who did not go to school. No. Nigeria has produced a more sophisticated creature: the educated olodo. The certificated illiterate. The graduate who cannot reason beyond slogans. The public officer who mistakes grammar for intelligence. The citizen who forwards nonsense with confidence. The analyst who mistakes noise for insight. The leader who confuses movement with progress. The voter who sells tomorrow for rice today, then spends four years complaining that the pot is empty.

Olodo, therefore, is not the absence of schooling. It is the failure of judgment.

It is what happens when a nation rewards mediocrity and punishes thought. It is what happens when people who ask serious questions are labelled troublesome, while those who clap for madness are called loyal. It is what happens when dumb, crazy things move the needle, while wisdom is treated like an old man coughing in the corner. It is what happens when unintelligent people do not merely exist, but are celebrated, promoted, defended, and installed as gatekeepers over those who still dare to think.

This is Nigeria’s Olodo Uprising.

It is an uprising not of the poor against the rich, nor of the uneducated against the educated. It is an uprising of shallow thinking against depth. An assault on memory, logic, accountability, and consequence. It is the national habit of refusing to connect action to outcome. We open the cage, release the lion, and then begin a prayer meeting when the lion remembers its appetite.

We talk, write, and discuss the Nigerian myth with a sense of fatalism. “This is Nigeria,” we say, as if that phrase is both an explanation and an excuse. If everyone thought as much about justice and fairness, life would be better. I am a critic, yes, but I am also a critic’s critic. I remain an unrepentant believer that one of the ways to keep the government on its toes is to keep harping on its flaws so that it can improve. But criticism without self-examination becomes entertainment. It becomes pepper soup politics, the kind we enjoy at drinking joints, suya spots, WhatsApp groups, and television studios where every table has a parliament and every loud voice is mistaken for a constitution.

Often, I say I believe the things I write are important for our nation, as they are for other nations. But when it appears to me that Nigerians, especially those in authority, do not react to these issues as people in other lands do, I repeat them in new essays to remind old readers and recruit new ones to participate in the continuing dialogue.

Because repetition, sometimes, is not a lack of creativity. It is the burden of memory in a country addicted to forgetting.

Sadly, this is Nigeria, where nothing works, and no one cares. When it works, it is often because someone’s interest is about to be served or is already being served, not because the people’s interest has suddenly become sacred. We talk about our institutions despairingly. Our leaders do not watch network news except when their faces will appear at their sons’ or daughters’ weddings, birthdays, burials, thanksgiving services, or self-sponsored ceremonies of public praise. They do not need newspapers anymore because too many pages are already full of their lies, paid adverts, and noisy banters dressed as governance.

A country that destroys thinking will eventually be governed by instinct.

That is why the Olodo Syndrome is dangerous. It not only makes people ignorant. It makes them confidently ignorant. It gives stupidity a microphone and asks wisdom to apply for permission to speak. It converts public debate into shouting contests. It turns leadership recruitment into ethnic arithmetic, religious panic, stomach infrastructure, and emotional blackmail. It makes citizens defend their oppressors because the oppressor speaks their language, attends their church, worships in their mosque, comes from their zone, or once gave them transport money.

This is how the other animals sided with the lion.

Not because the lion was right. They knew he was wrong. But fear is a powerful editor of truth. Hunger is a wicked lawyer. Proximity to power is a dangerous intoxicant. In Nigeria, many people do not support injustice because they are confused. They support it because they are calculating. They are asking themselves, “What if the lion remembers me tomorrow? What if I need a favour? What if I condemn him now and he becomes minister, governor, chairman, commissioner, vice chancellor, senator, president?”

So, they betray the sheep.

Government bashing remains a national pastime, and every drinking joint and suya spot has a sitting parliament with an expert on every issue. But we forget that no matter the input, if the politicians and actors on our national scene have questionable lives both at personal and domestic levels, nothing will change. The best government policy cannot change the individual when the policies themselves are formulated on a bad foundation by people with warped thinking.

A corrupt mind cannot midwife a clean system.

When a witch proclaims her presence, and an invalid does not make away, he must have money for sacrifices at home. Nigeria has been warned too many times. We have seen the witch. We have heard the announcement. Yet we remain seated, arguing about who invited her, who offended her, which village she came from, and whether her witchcraft is constitutionally recognised.

This is not merely a leadership failure. It is civic laziness. It is moral cowardice. It is intellectual surrender.

The tortoise in the story represents the rare citizen who does not join the chorus. The one who pauses the noise. The one who asks for sequence, evidence, context, motive, and consequence. The tortoise is not the loudest animal. It is not the strongest. It does not roar. It does not bleat. It thinks.

That is what Nigeria needs now: more tortoises.

Not slow people, but thoughtful people. Not cowards hiding under shells, but citizens who understand that speed without thought is national self-harm. We need people who can ask leaders: Where were you before power? What did you promise? What have you done? Who benefits? Who pays? What happens tomorrow? We need teachers who teach children to question, not merely to cram. We need voters who examine character before currency. We need religious leaders who produce conscience, not crowds. We need journalists who investigate, not decorate. We need institutions that reward competence over loyalty, substance over noise, and courage over convenience.

Because the lion will always be hungry again.

That is the part Nigeria refuses to learn. Appeasing bad leadership does not end its appetite. Excusing mediocrity does not transform it into excellence. Rewarding foolishness does not make it wise. If we allow the lion to eat the sheep today because we are afraid, hungry, tribal, religiously sentimental, or politically invested, we have not solved the hunger problem. We have only postponed our own turn.

In amazement, the other animals asked the tortoise, “why” and the tortoise replied. “If we allow him to eat the sheep today, he will still go hungry tomorrow, and we don’t know what will be eaten tomorrow—May Nigeria win.

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Stocks vs Forex: Which is Better for Beginners in 2026?

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Stocks vs Forex

By Onah Ishioma Adaeze

As a beginner, choosing between stocks and forex for your investment goals in 2026 can feel overwhelming. Before investing your hard-earned money, it is important to understand how both markets work.

While both markets present investors with opportunities to grow their wealth, they also differ in terms of volatility, liquidity, market hours, and leverage. Stocks involve owning portions of a company, while forex has to do with trading a base currency against a quote currency.

In this article, we will be going through the basics of stocks and forex, pointing out their differences, and helping you decide which asset better suits your investment journey in 2026.

What is Stock Trading?

When it comes to stock trading, you are buying shares of a company, which makes you a shareholder of that company. As a shareholder, you may be entitled to receive dividends whenever the company decides to pay dividends.

As for those companies that do not pay dividends, there are other benefits a shareholder may enjoy, like being called upon to attend shareholder meetings and having voting rights on certain company matters.

On a global scale, over $100 trillion worth of shares are traded annually. Also, the rising popularity of AI companies and technological innovations continues to drive investor participation and market growth.

If you’re an investor looking to buy and hold capital assets, then stock trading is definitely for you, as it allows for short-term, medium-term and long-term investment goals.

When you buy shares of a company and the company performs well, your shares increase in value. Another benefit of stock trading is access to index funds and ETFs.

These funds consist of companies that are grouped under an index. They are carefully selected and monitored under the fund, sparing the investor the stress of actively tracking the fund.

They can be a way of building a long-term, diversified portfolio, and some of these funds may pay dividends.

What is Forex Trading?

Forex trading has to do with buying one currency and selling another. With a pair like USD/JPY, USD is the base currency being bought against JPY, which is the quote currency.

In order to execute a trade in the forex market, you have to analyse and make predictions based on price movement, as well as pay attention to what’s going on in the global news scene.

The forex market runs twenty-four hours every weekday, with over $9 trillion traded in the market every day. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high liquidity.

Forex trading involves buying one currency against another, making predictions based on price movements on the forex charts. Price moves based on the activities of large institutions like hedge funds, big banks, the government, etc.

The forex market runs 24 hours a day, every weekday, with global forex turnover reaching $9 trillion per day in the BIS 2025 survey. Being the largest financial market in the world, there is very high volatility and price fluctuations.

At the same time, there is high liquidity in the market, which means that currency pairs can easily be bought and sold without hassle. Highly liquid instruments that are traded regularly include: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and gold (XAU/USD).

As a retail trader, knowing when to enter and exit the market is important. As easy as it is to make profits from price fluctuations, it is also very easy to lose money if the market moves against you. This is why it is important to set stop losses and take profits. This helps manage your trading capital.

Major Differences Between Stocks and Forex

While investing in stocks and forex can yield great capital gains, there are lots of ways in which they differ.

As a beginner, stock trading provides opportunities for long-term investments, ensuring slow but consistent returns for wealth building. But if you are looking for an active, short-term style of investment, then forex trading is for you, as it allows you to enter and exit the market within a shorter time frame.

Which is Better in 2026?

Choosing an asset to invest in all boils down to personal preference. At the same time, if you are not averse to risk, nor opposed to asset diversification, then it’s okay to invest in both.

For beginner investors in 2026, stock trading is easier to understand and get into, especially because of mutual funds, index funds and ETFs. With those funds, you don’t have to be an expert to start investing. You can just buy a fund that suits your needs and hold it over a long period of time.

If you are an investor who enjoys technical analysis, highly volatile and liquid markets, as well as trading under short time frames, then forex trading is the right pick for you.

Conclusion 

You do not need to put all your eggs in one basket. There are investors who invest in both stocks and forex simultaneously. When starting out, you can start investing in stocks while learning forex. Take calculated risks and do not invest above your means. Diversify your investments and remember, when starting out, you should prioritise acquiring knowledge over profits.

Onah Ishioma Adaeze is a finance writer who is passionate about simplifying complex concepts into easily digestible pieces. Her hobbies are reading and watching anime

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Building 234 Solutions: A Response to Everyday Workforce Challenges

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Owoloye Emmanuel 234 Solutions

By Owoloye Emmanuel

Every business starts with a problem. For us, that problem was hiding in plain sight.

Across organisations, we kept seeing HR professionals, payroll teams, and business leaders spend significant time navigating processes that should be simpler. Employee records sat across multiple systems, payroll processes required manual intervention, and routine workforce tasks often became more complicated than they needed to be.

As businesses grow, workforce operations naturally become more complex. Yet many organisations still rely on disconnected tools and workflows that create unnecessary friction for both employers and employees.

The consequence is more than operational inefficiency. HR teams spend valuable time managing systems instead of supporting people. Business leaders struggle to access timely workforce insights, while employees experience delays in processes that should be seamless.

These weren’t isolated challenges. They were recurring realities across workplaces, regardless of industry or size.

That observation led us to a simple question: what if workforce management could be easier?

What if HR, payroll, and workforce operations could work together within a single, connected experience?

That question became the foundation for 234 Solutions.

We are building 234 Solutions with a clear belief that workplace technology should reduce complexity, not add to it. Our goal is to help organisations spend less time navigating processes and more time focusing on productivity, growth, and people.

As we prepare for launch, our focus remains simple: building practical solutions for real workplace challenges and helping organisations create better experiences for the people who power them every day.

Owoloye Emmanuel is the founder of 234 Solutions

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