Feature/OPED
Nigeria’s Non-stop High Margin for Error
By Prince Charles Dickson PhD
A leaky roof tricks the sun but does not deceive the rain. Running in the rain, falling in the river, nations that lie to themselves live with flesh but are skeletons—AbdulChukwudi Balogun
I centre my admonishment for this week around the National Day Rally Speech of the state of Singapore.
It was a lengthy rallying speech that touched on several facets of their national life by their 70-year-old leader. It is pertinent to note that the speech occurred at the Institute of Technical Education ITE. (kontri wey sabi) I wait for that day, a Nigerian leader will take education as the belt of policy drive in the land of many doctorate degree holders yet millions of out-of-school children and labour issues that last months between teachers and government while universities are shut.
The Prime Minister spoke in Malay and Chinese, followed by English (that was diversity in action, but here we are still dancing our ethnocentric parapoism and religious jingoism of bitterness). He touched on COVID19 extensively, I loved it so much when he stated, ‘every death is one too many….’ And I asked myself can our leaders make that same assertion I wondered if at all Nigerian lives counted or even mattered.
Key to their success was the high level of trust in their society. That is one ingredient lacking in the Nigerian construct, among many others. He said in Singapore, people worked with and not against one another.
Their government upheld the trust by being open and transparent. This is very strange in our government and governance spectrum, one littered with errors. In Singapore, they had each other’s back; in Nigeria, na all man for himself, na we be government, we do everything for ourselves, who do us?!
Brother Lee Hsien Loong discussed the strategic challenges of their external environment, and he outlined how the US-China relations will affect them, Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan and more. He maintained his nation would avoid being caught up in major power rivalry. Despite the peace they had enjoyed for a long, he admonished his countrymen to be prepared psychologically by being real should things go wrong.
These things cannot be said simultaneously when we discuss Nigeria.
He asked that his people must not be divided, whether by race, religion, income, social differences, or place of birth. If we are taken in and divided, we will stand no choice but, united, we can deal with any problems that come our way…my country is not united, we are divided and multiplied by our differences!
He touched on economic issues, cost of living, and disrupted supply chains. Speaking to the government’s efforts at supporting middle- and lower-income families, lightening household burdens. He said if the situation worsens, they stand ready to do more. In Nigeria, all the burden is on the masses; increased pump price for a commodity we are blessed with when we pay taxes, it goes to private pockets, we borrow to eat, and one is in a state wahala be like wetin again.
The Singapore Dollar has strengthened, making travelling overseas more affordable. At home, it makes imported goods cheaper…yet he cautioned not overdoing things. Can the same be said of the Nigerian space with her high margin of error?
His conclusion made me tear up for my beloved Nigeria…He stated below:
Whether we are tackling COVID-19 and preparing for the next pandemic, dealing with geopolitical dangers and economic uncertainties, handling sensitive domestic issues, or planning and building Singapore for the long term.
With all these challenges, success depends on us getting three key master fundamentals right. We must always have a united people, a high-quality leadership team, and high trust between the people and their leaders. A united people, a high-quality leadership team, and high trust between the people and their leaders. These are essential if we respond creatively and resiliently to challenges, year after year. We may have the best-laid schemes, but without these three fundamentals, they will come to nothing. I have emphasised these points repeatedly, in different ways, because they are so crucial.
In particular, good leadership is non-negotiable. Look at the countries where governments are unstable and politics messy, swinging wildly from one election to another. Whenever things do not work, leaders are forced out or resign en-masse. But even after changing teams, things fail to improve. Policies and laws either never make it through the political gridlock, or they are made by one government and then reversed by the next. Often, it is not just the leaders who disappoint but the whole system that has failed. The result is a devastating loss of faith: Not just in individual politicians or parties, but in the whole political system and the whole political class, and there is no way forward from there. THIS PARAGRAPH CAPTURES THE NIGERIAN DILEMMA AND OUR ERRORS.
A small country like Singapore has zero margins for error. Not just Singapore’s continued success, but our very survival, depends on us having the right leaders.
Leaders with integrity, dedication, and competence; leaders with the conviction to make the tough calls and do the right thing, even when it may cost them some votes; leaders you can trust. We cannot afford any compromise on this.
Thankfully, for 57 years, over three generations, we have had leaders who have earned and maintained Singaporeans’ trust and confidence, who have worked closely with the people to deliver on sound policies, and who have improved all our lives.
Never take this trust, nor this competence, for granted. Keep working hard to find the right people, get them to serve, and help them do their best for Singapore. We must extend our success formula to the next generation and beyond.
Leadership succession is, therefore, of paramount importance. When COVID-19 hit us, I had to put my succession plans on hold. Now we are learning to live with COVID-19 and entering a new normal. The younger ministers have chosen DPM Lawrence Wong to be their leader. I am happy that the matter is settled and that my succession plans are moving forward again. I am also glad that from everything I see, Singaporeans support Lawrence and his team leadership. So, I ask you to give Lawrence and his 4G team – your team – your fullest support.
The next few decades will be bracing but exhilarating. I have given you my take on what we can achieve and what may go wrong. But with your trust, we can come through whatever difficulties await. With your support, we can turn hopes and dreams into reality and unite as one people; we can secure a brighter future in this uncertain world. Not just for now, not just for ourselves, but for every Singaporean child, for many generations to come.
My beloved Nigeria and Nigerians have refused to talk about their present and mock our past, so how do we “Secure Our Future”. Leadership is negotiable here and indeed negotiated always amongst the best of evils. For us, not just leaders continually disappoint, but the whole system keeps failing.
With all our collective errors, there is a loss of faith: not just in individual politicians or parties, but the whole political system and political class.
Do we know that our survival depends on us having the right leaders? Leaders with integrity, dedication, and competence. Leaders with the conviction to make the tough calls and do the right thing. We know will we act; only time will tell.
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
By Winston Osuchukwu
The average Nigerian borrower is widely considered high-risk – a claim repeated in credit committees, priced into retail loans, and largely treated as settled fact. Every credit market accepts that an individual loan may not be repaid; this is ordinary, priced risk. The high-risk claim, however, is applied to whole segments – the informal trader, the gig economy earner whose income is steady but split across several accounts, the remote worker paid by an overseas client into a fintech FX wallet. What the assessment establishes is not whether they are likely to repay, but how they fit into an arbitrary segment. Having spent years building decisioning systems for this market, my thesis is a specific one: “high-risk” does not mean “no credit” – it simply requires that the lender embrace alternative datasets to price the risk appropriately.
This is not a criticism of the institutions that built their frameworks around collateral and documentation; those were rational responses to the tools available at the time. When data is scarce, prudence means defaulting to the status quo. The limitation is not that this approach is wrong, but that it leaves a blind spot – excluding fundamentally sound borrowers whose economic lives simply are not captured on the bank’s ledger. A market trader who has moved consistent, growing volumes of cash through mobile money for three years is not, in any meaningful sense, unknowable. Their financial behaviour is observable and patterned; it simply occurs outside the traditional banking system, rendering it invisible to conventional underwriting.
This is the gap technology is now positioned to close – not by replacing institutional judgment, but by augmenting it. When AI-driven analysis is applied rigorously to the financial behaviour these borrowers generate, a far more complete picture of their repayment ability emerges – and a meaningful share presents a risk profile that compares favourably with segments the traditional system has long considered safe. The “high-risk” label, applied broadly to an entire category of borrower, was never a risk pricing tool so much as the limit of what the available tools could see.
For banks, this is the opportunity to extend capital with confidence beyond the borrowers who fit their stringent criteria. Nigerian banks are highly liquid; the constraint on credit growth has rarely been capital, but the ability to assess and price the borrowers who sit outside the traditional file. Close that gap, and the whole ecosystem strengthens: banks grow their loan books into segments they have long wanted to serve, and the real economy gets the capital it needs to expand.
This is precisely what we focus on at Mathesis Analytics: building AI-powered credit decisioning that gives lenders a fuller, more defensible picture of the individuals long excluded as high-risk when they were simply misjudged. The Nigerian credit gap has never been a non-lendable population problem, but one of incomplete visibility. By unifying varied data sources and partnering with the institutions that hold the capital and scale to move the market, we translate out-of-ecosystem behaviour into reliable, bank-grade risk scores. Closing this gap is one of the clearest, highest-leverage opportunities in Nigerian financial services today.
Winston Osuchukwu is the founder & CEO of Mathesis Analytics
