Feature/OPED
State of the World: Business, War, Economics, Civilization, Trade & Politics
By Nneka Okumazie
It is likely that a key reason for Asia’s powerful rise in recent decades is that white people fell into a deep perilous sleep – with no wakefulness in sight.
There is something significant to free enterprise – cold hard cash. And Asia continues to beat them at their own game.
Capitalism, predicated on competitive productivity, found fertility in Asia, as the whites optimized for profit, which goes to some, and waned in – a – collective progress.
Budget cuts, deficits, dismaying healthcare situations, austerity, unemployment, recession, etc. are bells of a decline, though strengths abound in other areas.
There is wealth in the dirt and for centuries, the whites were able to pass around aspects of the unpleasant – in important but profitable work – to others.
But this, for Asia, unlike others in the past for situation, prescience, etc. was willing to seem dumb and get roughened, learn, position, get better and become the engine of global supply.
Though many posit paths for Asia’s not so simple rise, one thing is clear, they took advantage.
The rise of Asia does not mean they would overpower the world, or lead it – unlikely, at least through this century, but they have taken hold of something that in possession of the whites may have been – some – more equitable for the world.
The rise of the dominant civilization through centuries came with trenchant imagination, invention, overwhelming courage, in-group fairness, trust, some integrity, rarefied observation, impermeable loyalty, push-pull drive or attempt propensity, spot-opportunity-alertness, etc.
But these, for more whites, continue to recede.
It is true that after near matchless excellence through history, to relish and chill, because with what should be part decline – remains far ahead of most of the world.
Though emerging differently – Asia was able to soup together their ways and other aspects of growth determinism.
There is no way it should not have been obvious that in a capitalist society, the most important sector is the economy and the most important field is economics.
Another dance is of the drifter’s drum.
Once the economy falters – others follow.
Most of the things that grow – commercially – are for perceived value, graded by price.
Big stuff like the defence that grows across nations – seeming to defy local economics, is not by itself growth but a governance tumour.
There is the security hallucination of weapons first, forgetting the economy is the greatest weapon.
Aside from growing wastes with rusty weapons across zones, there are categories that will almost never be used, not because there won’t be conflicts but because there is less incentive for self-destruction, for those that have things going – somewhat – well for them.
Also, those in power, who initiate wars, often believe that they can win and retain power, not because they see it as a path to ruin.
So, battles are often circumspectly selected, and the mad person is not that crazy – at least initially.
There is a point of enough for direct weapons of war – in proportion to priority objectives.
But there may never be enough for indirect weapons of war – economy, food, development, etc.
The groupies for direct weapons forget that some of the leading nations of present-day productivity are not the most abundant with weapons. Those, for years, on weapons speedway focused on it, to lead, losing out on other areas, as others rose.
Some countries almost seem to have outsourced their defence. Also, there is a high attraction for others to have an alliance with those who make stuff, or maybe prioritize them.
More weapons may mean an appetite for conflict or hyper-belligerence.
Conflicts remain uncertain with the use of fair weapons, as well unclear benefits amid so much noise.
The economic decline may – maybe – be turned around with invasion centuries ago – and then occupation, but with horror weapons now and continuous options for resources and production elsewhere, weapons winders bear economic senescence.
Some may argue the need for new frontiers of defence, yes, maybe, but the economy, economy mostly.
There should be at least hundreds of new economic ideas tested on small scale across locations – to find new options with demand, supply and more.
Economics should be the most with the number of tryouts seeking how to make progress in a changing world, but painfully, most in the field are showroom economists, displaying data prowess, bickering over trends and terms but deficient in applicable economic ideas for continuous progress.
They have become watchers of the gauge, rather than seek hundreds of mobility alternatives to keep the economic cargo moving; that if some parts go to others, there should be tens of options to redirect the loss in gainful ways.
There are some big ideas on what to do in some cases and sometimes just one. If the best to come up with is just one, not at least twenty, it has already failed. Who cares about prestigious titles, degrees, places or roles if they have little ideas in their field on how to move all forward as they watch their civilization asphyxiate?
Most economists in recent decades had no major paths for the future. They sheltered in the lack-of-better-ideas prison, similar now by most economists, towards the future, with resignation. Such a shame that they know how many economic troubles had been responsible for problems across the world throughout history, but refuse to drive economics reproductively with great ideas for new options regardless of what emerges and how tough it gets, uncertainties or catastrophes.
Most economists are an embarrassment, with nothing to contribute to progress than – to be dated analysis, debates over who crashes first, sham indicators and void revisions.
They forget how responsible they are not just for their own civilization, but also for the developing world since the majority of the developing world will never do anything new for themselves except copy from elsewhere, or adopt something really insignificant to their collective progress and yell.
Many years ago, the rigid capitalism models, caused lots of union troubles that may be led, in part, to horror stance that maybe also led, in part, to trouble ideologies years on. Economy first, but most economists show no leadership, so the advantage is taken of their turf for all kinds of illegal stuff.
If for example, in many developing countries, someone asks some people, why are you involved in organized crime? They may give common ludicrous answers, but one thing they don’t often say:
They want to be regarded.
In many developing countries, money – per capitalism copy – rules, so not having means being nothing, and many don’t want this.
So, for them, it is a status game, show-off and classifying display to appear better than others.
Status is worthless.
It is not often obvious because most people want to be admired, but status by itself – as a destination, not a tool – is worthless.
The world is a collection of segmented countries. If developed countries are trains on their tracks, and some emerging nations too are, some developing nations have no trains, no tracks and their people are standing by.
In that no progress situation, some are better off, so instead of most seeking ways to found a new track, or repurpose an old track, get some locomotor and get started, their people on that ground, table on status, use possessions or exposure to class, so as to distinguish selves from others.
Some get aboard other trains, do OK, but mostly get sucked in becoming little to progress.
They may not see it but are insignificant in how most act or appear, to many on trains of progress.
Who cares that someone in some null developing country somewhere drives a cool vehicle?
What does it solve? What does that do for the world or their people per progress?
There is some developing country somewhere, with their reputable companies, neighbourhoods, schools, positions, tribalism, with people there thinking they have it all, who cannot look at themselves at how backwards they are, and find ways to collectively go forward.
Most often forget that individual success is mostly an opportunity to take the collective risk so that if it works, it benefits them and their people. But unfortunately, these places lack much, while getting consumed by petty heavy nonsense, repeating the same with many of their progenitors.
There is often an insistence on education, democracy, freedom, transparency, etc. Those are cool indexes but are like the tenth need for most developing countries.
Since their schools mostly don’t have advanced facilities or much, rather than focus on studying what others are studying, yet not great at it, they should instead have institutes of imagination, colleges of observation, labs of integrity, departments of courage, groups of fairness, schools of trust and integrity.
Most of the countries lack these. There is hardly a way for most new leaders or many of the sham revolutions to do much.
Why won’t many be corrupt?
On the ground, the goal is to make it comfortable or maybe find ways to feel better than others, etc.
What a joke for all the symbolism from most of these places that they just cannot have basic fairness.
Conferences, summits or gatherings to discuss their nothing subjects all lack emotional observation, no exception.
The same way status is worthless in those countries is the same way status is worthless anywhere in the world.
The moving train has several mechanical parts, it is possible to be on an amazing train and have others work on the ugly parts, but after a while, those tending and supplying the ugly parts hold some power. Status may still seem valid, but others handle something important.
Status, Rolodex or connections, as the way things should happen, is part of the model of economic decline.
It was cool monarchy powered stuff, but with similar, now, in parallel to Asia’s fierce economic procession, doom, doom.
There are many of the bygone eras who hardly saw the future. Then in their status, feeling like the centre of all, are gone, faded, irrelevant, not remembered. This is often forgotten by many in the present.
There are people who for whatever reason believe that being born white or in some associated country means being special, or better than others, NO it does not.
Those in the tug for this or against can’t see their loss in economic substitution.
For some, they claim they are protecting civilization, or others from taking over, but this will not happen.
Mostly, in these major countries, they have so many programs, to assist the sick, the troubled, those in need, including interventions, tips against addiction, harm, etc. The summary of the message is don’t waste your life, even if it achieves nothing grand per se, just do OK, and who knows, it might.
Now, in some places, certain tiny groups say they have to do ruinous martyrdom to conquer others. So an ideology that tells people to waste their life will conquer a place already evolved to cherish life?
It won’t happen.
Most of the fears are diversions from an economy that has cratered and no answer, so find something to grab minds and leave out answers.
Whatever the future may hold, hate is not the future.
Deception is not the future.
It is possible to predict their directions, but both will not win.
In hindsight deceit revealed is sometimes more than disappointing, just like hate, greed, lust, evil, wickedness, etc.
It is easier to predict the future, with themes than with events.
The future is extremism, though could be in useful stuff.
Extremism, not moderation will be the future, from different directions.
Though Asia made it, they don’t have big ideas that would move them or the world far super forward.
The world too is short on answers.
The fields that produce studies and should quadruple outputs, to close in on pervasive progress face funding cuts and diversions.
Progress stalls because of economics and swing set, post-ideas economists.
Technology is far subject to economics than many believe it is an advance driven progress.
There is a big country whose meaning will – maybe – depend on sabotage and antagonism because they have lost out on the future, so they have to posture with both.
There is also another big country, with super-smart people doing amazingly and leading across fields nationally and internationally, but that country is unlikely to succeed, even if some of their known cognitive snipers elsewhere – come to power.
This is due to religious aggression, certain culture and the funnel of their people to get out to enthusiastically build the civilization of others.
Religion is mostly about association and possession – what the people believe they have. It is not often the most important to decisions as many prioritize whatever according to desires, needs or status, not adherence or pure heart.
The future is religion as well, though may not be just organized.
Some people remain consumed by what skills people would need in future?
Economics is before all, few see it or that it is diseased and needs massive multiple ideas, instead most people run amok seeking scraps of economic servants.
[Matthew 6:21, For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.]
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
- $75 per barrel oil price
- 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
- Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
- Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
- Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
- Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
- Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
- Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
- Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
- Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
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