Feature/OPED
State of the World: Business, War, Economics, Civilization, Trade & Politics
By Nneka Okumazie
It is likely that a key reason for Asia’s powerful rise in recent decades is that white people fell into a deep perilous sleep – with no wakefulness in sight.
There is something significant to free enterprise – cold hard cash. And Asia continues to beat them at their own game.
Capitalism, predicated on competitive productivity, found fertility in Asia, as the whites optimized for profit, which goes to some, and waned in – a – collective progress.
Budget cuts, deficits, dismaying healthcare situations, austerity, unemployment, recession, etc. are bells of a decline, though strengths abound in other areas.
There is wealth in the dirt and for centuries, the whites were able to pass around aspects of the unpleasant – in important but profitable work – to others.
But this, for Asia, unlike others in the past for situation, prescience, etc. was willing to seem dumb and get roughened, learn, position, get better and become the engine of global supply.
Though many posit paths for Asia’s not so simple rise, one thing is clear, they took advantage.
The rise of Asia does not mean they would overpower the world, or lead it – unlikely, at least through this century, but they have taken hold of something that in possession of the whites may have been – some – more equitable for the world.
The rise of the dominant civilization through centuries came with trenchant imagination, invention, overwhelming courage, in-group fairness, trust, some integrity, rarefied observation, impermeable loyalty, push-pull drive or attempt propensity, spot-opportunity-alertness, etc.
But these, for more whites, continue to recede.
It is true that after near matchless excellence through history, to relish and chill, because with what should be part decline – remains far ahead of most of the world.
Though emerging differently – Asia was able to soup together their ways and other aspects of growth determinism.
There is no way it should not have been obvious that in a capitalist society, the most important sector is the economy and the most important field is economics.
Another dance is of the drifter’s drum.
Once the economy falters – others follow.
Most of the things that grow – commercially – are for perceived value, graded by price.
Big stuff like the defence that grows across nations – seeming to defy local economics, is not by itself growth but a governance tumour.
There is the security hallucination of weapons first, forgetting the economy is the greatest weapon.
Aside from growing wastes with rusty weapons across zones, there are categories that will almost never be used, not because there won’t be conflicts but because there is less incentive for self-destruction, for those that have things going – somewhat – well for them.
Also, those in power, who initiate wars, often believe that they can win and retain power, not because they see it as a path to ruin.
So, battles are often circumspectly selected, and the mad person is not that crazy – at least initially.
There is a point of enough for direct weapons of war – in proportion to priority objectives.
But there may never be enough for indirect weapons of war – economy, food, development, etc.
The groupies for direct weapons forget that some of the leading nations of present-day productivity are not the most abundant with weapons. Those, for years, on weapons speedway focused on it, to lead, losing out on other areas, as others rose.
Some countries almost seem to have outsourced their defence. Also, there is a high attraction for others to have an alliance with those who make stuff, or maybe prioritize them.
More weapons may mean an appetite for conflict or hyper-belligerence.
Conflicts remain uncertain with the use of fair weapons, as well unclear benefits amid so much noise.
The economic decline may – maybe – be turned around with invasion centuries ago – and then occupation, but with horror weapons now and continuous options for resources and production elsewhere, weapons winders bear economic senescence.
Some may argue the need for new frontiers of defence, yes, maybe, but the economy, economy mostly.
There should be at least hundreds of new economic ideas tested on small scale across locations – to find new options with demand, supply and more.
Economics should be the most with the number of tryouts seeking how to make progress in a changing world, but painfully, most in the field are showroom economists, displaying data prowess, bickering over trends and terms but deficient in applicable economic ideas for continuous progress.
They have become watchers of the gauge, rather than seek hundreds of mobility alternatives to keep the economic cargo moving; that if some parts go to others, there should be tens of options to redirect the loss in gainful ways.
There are some big ideas on what to do in some cases and sometimes just one. If the best to come up with is just one, not at least twenty, it has already failed. Who cares about prestigious titles, degrees, places or roles if they have little ideas in their field on how to move all forward as they watch their civilization asphyxiate?
Most economists in recent decades had no major paths for the future. They sheltered in the lack-of-better-ideas prison, similar now by most economists, towards the future, with resignation. Such a shame that they know how many economic troubles had been responsible for problems across the world throughout history, but refuse to drive economics reproductively with great ideas for new options regardless of what emerges and how tough it gets, uncertainties or catastrophes.
Most economists are an embarrassment, with nothing to contribute to progress than – to be dated analysis, debates over who crashes first, sham indicators and void revisions.
They forget how responsible they are not just for their own civilization, but also for the developing world since the majority of the developing world will never do anything new for themselves except copy from elsewhere, or adopt something really insignificant to their collective progress and yell.
Many years ago, the rigid capitalism models, caused lots of union troubles that may be led, in part, to horror stance that maybe also led, in part, to trouble ideologies years on. Economy first, but most economists show no leadership, so the advantage is taken of their turf for all kinds of illegal stuff.
If for example, in many developing countries, someone asks some people, why are you involved in organized crime? They may give common ludicrous answers, but one thing they don’t often say:
They want to be regarded.
In many developing countries, money – per capitalism copy – rules, so not having means being nothing, and many don’t want this.
So, for them, it is a status game, show-off and classifying display to appear better than others.
Status is worthless.
It is not often obvious because most people want to be admired, but status by itself – as a destination, not a tool – is worthless.
The world is a collection of segmented countries. If developed countries are trains on their tracks, and some emerging nations too are, some developing nations have no trains, no tracks and their people are standing by.
In that no progress situation, some are better off, so instead of most seeking ways to found a new track, or repurpose an old track, get some locomotor and get started, their people on that ground, table on status, use possessions or exposure to class, so as to distinguish selves from others.
Some get aboard other trains, do OK, but mostly get sucked in becoming little to progress.
They may not see it but are insignificant in how most act or appear, to many on trains of progress.
Who cares that someone in some null developing country somewhere drives a cool vehicle?
What does it solve? What does that do for the world or their people per progress?
There is some developing country somewhere, with their reputable companies, neighbourhoods, schools, positions, tribalism, with people there thinking they have it all, who cannot look at themselves at how backwards they are, and find ways to collectively go forward.
Most often forget that individual success is mostly an opportunity to take the collective risk so that if it works, it benefits them and their people. But unfortunately, these places lack much, while getting consumed by petty heavy nonsense, repeating the same with many of their progenitors.
There is often an insistence on education, democracy, freedom, transparency, etc. Those are cool indexes but are like the tenth need for most developing countries.
Since their schools mostly don’t have advanced facilities or much, rather than focus on studying what others are studying, yet not great at it, they should instead have institutes of imagination, colleges of observation, labs of integrity, departments of courage, groups of fairness, schools of trust and integrity.
Most of the countries lack these. There is hardly a way for most new leaders or many of the sham revolutions to do much.
Why won’t many be corrupt?
On the ground, the goal is to make it comfortable or maybe find ways to feel better than others, etc.
What a joke for all the symbolism from most of these places that they just cannot have basic fairness.
Conferences, summits or gatherings to discuss their nothing subjects all lack emotional observation, no exception.
The same way status is worthless in those countries is the same way status is worthless anywhere in the world.
The moving train has several mechanical parts, it is possible to be on an amazing train and have others work on the ugly parts, but after a while, those tending and supplying the ugly parts hold some power. Status may still seem valid, but others handle something important.
Status, Rolodex or connections, as the way things should happen, is part of the model of economic decline.
It was cool monarchy powered stuff, but with similar, now, in parallel to Asia’s fierce economic procession, doom, doom.
There are many of the bygone eras who hardly saw the future. Then in their status, feeling like the centre of all, are gone, faded, irrelevant, not remembered. This is often forgotten by many in the present.
There are people who for whatever reason believe that being born white or in some associated country means being special, or better than others, NO it does not.
Those in the tug for this or against can’t see their loss in economic substitution.
For some, they claim they are protecting civilization, or others from taking over, but this will not happen.
Mostly, in these major countries, they have so many programs, to assist the sick, the troubled, those in need, including interventions, tips against addiction, harm, etc. The summary of the message is don’t waste your life, even if it achieves nothing grand per se, just do OK, and who knows, it might.
Now, in some places, certain tiny groups say they have to do ruinous martyrdom to conquer others. So an ideology that tells people to waste their life will conquer a place already evolved to cherish life?
It won’t happen.
Most of the fears are diversions from an economy that has cratered and no answer, so find something to grab minds and leave out answers.
Whatever the future may hold, hate is not the future.
Deception is not the future.
It is possible to predict their directions, but both will not win.
In hindsight deceit revealed is sometimes more than disappointing, just like hate, greed, lust, evil, wickedness, etc.
It is easier to predict the future, with themes than with events.
The future is extremism, though could be in useful stuff.
Extremism, not moderation will be the future, from different directions.
Though Asia made it, they don’t have big ideas that would move them or the world far super forward.
The world too is short on answers.
The fields that produce studies and should quadruple outputs, to close in on pervasive progress face funding cuts and diversions.
Progress stalls because of economics and swing set, post-ideas economists.
Technology is far subject to economics than many believe it is an advance driven progress.
There is a big country whose meaning will – maybe – depend on sabotage and antagonism because they have lost out on the future, so they have to posture with both.
There is also another big country, with super-smart people doing amazingly and leading across fields nationally and internationally, but that country is unlikely to succeed, even if some of their known cognitive snipers elsewhere – come to power.
This is due to religious aggression, certain culture and the funnel of their people to get out to enthusiastically build the civilization of others.
Religion is mostly about association and possession – what the people believe they have. It is not often the most important to decisions as many prioritize whatever according to desires, needs or status, not adherence or pure heart.
The future is religion as well, though may not be just organized.
Some people remain consumed by what skills people would need in future?
Economics is before all, few see it or that it is diseased and needs massive multiple ideas, instead most people run amok seeking scraps of economic servants.
[Matthew 6:21, For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.]
Nigeria is entering a timing-sensitive macro set-up as the oil complex reprices disruption risk and the US dollar firms. Brent moved violently this week, settling at $77.74 on 02 March, up 6.68% on the day, after trading as high as $82.37 before settling around $78.07 on 3 March. For Nigeria, the immediate hook is the overlap with domestic policy: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has just cut its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50%, whilst headline inflation is still 15.10% year on year in January.
“Investors often talk about Nigeria as an oil story, but the market response is frequently a timing story,” said David Barrett, Chief Executive Officer, EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd. “When the pass-through clock runs ahead of the policy clock, inflation risk, and United States Dollar (USD) demand can show up before any oil benefit is felt in day-to-day liquidity.”
Policy and Pricing Regime Shift: One Shock, Different Clocks
EBC Financial Group (“EBC”) frames Nigeria’s current set-up as “policy-lag arbitrage”: the same external energy shock can hit domestic costs, FX liquidity, and monetary transmission on different timelines. A risk premium that begins in crude can quickly show up in delivered costs through freight and insurance, and EBC notes that downstream pressure has been visible in refined markets, with jet fuel and diesel cash premiums hitting multi-year highs.
Market Impact: Oil Support is Conditional, Pass-through is Not
EBC points out that higher crude is not automatically supportive of the naira in the short run because “oil buffer” depends on how quickly external receipts translate into market-clearing USD liquidity. Recent price action illustrates the sensitivity: the naira was quoted at 1,344 per dollar on the official market on 19 February, compared with 1,357 a week earlier, whilst street trading was cited around 1,385.
At the same time, Nigeria’s inflation channel can move quickly even during disinflation: headline inflation eased to 15.10% in January from 15.15% in December, and food inflation slowed to 8.89% from 10.84%, but energy-led transport and logistics costs can reintroduce pressure if the risk premium persists. EBC also points to a broader Nigeria-specific reality: the economy grew 4.07% year on year in 4Q25, with the oil sector expanding 6.79% and non-oil 3.99%, whilst average daily oil production slipped to 1.58 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd in 3Q25. That mix supports external-balance potential, but it also underscores why the domestic liquidity benefit can arrive with a lag.
Nigeria’s Buffer Looks Stronger, but It Does Not Eliminate Sequencing Risk
EBC sees that near-term external resilience is improving. The CBN Governor said gross external reserves rose to USD 50.45 billion as of 16 February 2026, equivalent to 9.68 months of import cover for goods and services. Even so, EBC views the market’s focus as pragmatic: in a risk-off tape, investors tend to price the order of transmission, not the eventual balance-of-payments benefit.
In the near term, EBC expects attention to rotate to scheduled energy and policy signposts that can confirm whether the current repricing is a short, violent adjustment or a more durable regime shift, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (10 March 2026), OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (11 March 2026), and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (17 to 18 March 2026). On the domestic calendar, the CBN’s published schedule points to the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 19 to 20 May 2026.
Risk Frame: The Market Prices the Lag, Not the Headline
EBC cautions that outcomes are asymmetric. A rapid de-escalation could compress the crude risk premium quickly, but once freight, insurance, and hedging behaviour adjust, second-round effects can linger through inflation uncertainty and a more persistent USD bid.
“Oil can act as a shock absorber for Nigeria, but only when the liquidity channel is working,” Barrett added. “If USD conditions tighten first and domestic pass-through accelerates, the market prices the lag, not the headline oil price.”
Brent remains an anchor instrument for tracking this timing risk because it links energy-led inflation expectations, USD liquidity, and emerging-market risk appetite in one market. EBC Commodities offering provides access to Brent Crude Spot (XBRUSD) via its trading platform for following energy-driven macro volatility through a single instrument.
By Emma Kendrick Cox
This year, the eldest Gen Alpha turns 16.
That means they aren’t just the future of our work anymore. They are officially calling for a seat at the table, and they’ve brought their own chairs. And if you’re still calling this generation born between 2010 and 2025 the iPad generation, then I hate to break it to you, but you’re already obsolete. To the uninitiated, they look like a screen-addicted mystery. To those of us paying attention, they are the most sophisticated, commercially potent, and culturally fluent architects Africa has ever seen.
Why? Because Alphas were not born alongside the internet. They were born inside it. And by 2030, Africa will be home to one in every three Gen Alphas on the planet.
QWERTY the Dinosaur
We are witnessing the rise of a generation that writes via Siri and speech-to-text before they can even hold a pencil. With 63% of these kids navigating smartphones by age five, they don’t see a QWERTY keyboard as a tool. They see it as a speed bump, the long route, an inefficient use of their bandwidth. They don’t need to learn how to use tech because they were born with the ability to command their entire environment with a voice note or a swipe.
They are platform agnostic by instinct. They don’t see boundaries between devices. They’ll migrate from an Android phone to a Smart TV to an iPhone without breaking their stride. To them, the hardware is invisible…it’s the experience that matters.
They recognise brand identities long before they know the alphabet. I share a home with a peak Gen Alpha, age six and a half (don’t I dare forget that half). When she hears the ding-ding-ding-ding-ding of South Africa’s largest bank, Capitec’s POS machine, she calls it out instantly: “Mum! Someone just paid with Capitec!” It suddenly gives a whole new meaning to the theory of brand recall, in a case like this, extending it into a mental map of the financial world drawn long before Grade 2.
And it ultimately lands on this: This generation doesn’t want to just view your brand from behind a glass screen. They want to touch it, hear it, inhabit it, and remix it. If they can’t live inside your world, you’re literally just static.
The Uno Reverse card
Unlike any generation we’ve seen to date, households from Lagos to Joburg and beyond now see Alphas hold the ultimate Uno Reverse card on purchasing power. With 80% of parents admitting their kids dictate what the family buys, these Alphas are the unofficial CTOs and Procurement Officers of the home:
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The hardware veto: Parents pay the bill, but Alphas pick the ISP based on Roblox latency and YouTube 4K buffers.
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The Urban/Rural bridge: In the cities, they’re barking orders at Alexa. In rural areas, they are the ones translating tech for their families and narrowing the digital divide from the inside out.
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The death of passive: I’ll fall on my sword when I say that with this generation, the word consumer is dead. It implies they just sit there and take what you give them, when, on the contrary, it is the total opposite. Alphas are Architectural. They are not going to buy your product unless they can co-author the experience from end to end.
As this generation creeps closer and closer to our bullseye, the team here at Irvine Partners has stopped looking at Gen Alpha as a demographic and started seeing them as the new infrastructure of the African market. They are mega-precise, fast, and surgically informed.
Believe me when I say they’ve already moved into your industry and started knocking down the walls. The only question is: are you building something they actually want to live in, or are you just a FaceTime call they are about to decline?
Pay attention. Big moves are coming. The architects are here.
Emma Kendrick Cox is an Executive Creative Director at Irvine Partners
By Kehinde Ogundare
For years, security for SMEs across sub-Saharan Africa meant metal grilles and alarm systems. Today, the most significant risks are invisible and growing faster than most businesses realise.
Artificial Intelligence has quietly embedded itself into everyday operations. The chatbot responding to customers at midnight, the system forecasting inventory requirements, and the software identifying unusual transactions are no longer experimental technologies. They are becoming standard features of modern business tools.
Last month’s observance of Safer Internet Day on February 10, themed ‘Smart tech, safe choices’, marked a pivotal moment. As AI adoption accelerates, the conversation must shift from whether businesses should use AI to how they deploy it responsibly. For SMEs across Africa, digital trust is no longer a technical consideration. It is a strategic business imperative.
The evolving threat landscape
Cybersecurity threats facing sub-Saharan African SMEs have moved well beyond basic phishing emails. Globally, cybercrime costs are projected to reach $10.5 trillion this year, fuelled by generative AI and increasingly sophisticated social engineering techniques. Ransomware attacks now paralyse entire operations, while other threats quietly extract sensitive customer data over extended periods.
The regional impact is equally significant. More than 70% of South African SMEs report experiencing at least one attempted cyberattack, and Nigeria faces an average of 3,759 cyberattacks per week on its businesses. Kenya recorded 2.54 billion cyber threat incidents in the first quarter of 2025 alone, whilst Africa loses approximately 10% of its GDP to cyberattacks annually.
The hidden risk of fragmentation
A common but often overlooked vulnerability lies in digital fragmentation.
In the early stages of growth, SMEs understandably prioritise affordability and agility. Over time, this can result in a patchwork of disconnected applications, each with separate logins, security standards, and privacy policies. What begins as flexibility can involve operational complexity.
According to IBM Security’s Cost of a Data Breach Report, companies with highly fragmented security environments experienced average breach costs of $4.88 million in 2024.
Fragmented systems create blind spots; each additional data transfer between applications increases exposure. Inconsistent security protocols make governance harder to enforce. Limited visibility reduces the ability to detect anomalies early. In practical terms, complexity increases risk.
Privacy-first AI as a competitive differentiator
As AI capabilities become embedded in business software, SMEs face a choice about how they approach these powerful tools. The risks are not merely theoretical.
Consumers across Africa are becoming more aware of data rights and are willing to walk away from businesses that cannot demonstrate trustworthiness. According to KPMG’s Trust in AI report, approximately 70% of adults do not trust companies to use AI responsibly, and 81% expect misuse. Meanwhile, studies also show that 71% of consumers would stop doing business with a company that mishandles information.
Trust, once lost, is difficult to rebuild. In the digital age, a single data leak can destroy a reputation that took ten years to build. When customers share their payment details or purchase history, they extend trust. How you handle that trust, particularly when AI processes their data, determines whether they return or take their business elsewhere.
Privacy-first, responsible AI design means building intelligence into business systems with data protection, transparency and ethical use embedded from the outset. It involves collecting only necessary information, storing it securely, being transparent about how AI makes decisions, and ensuring algorithms work without compromising customer privacy. For SMEs, this might mean choosing inventory software where predictive AI runs on your own data without sending it externally, or customer service platforms that analyse patterns without exposing individual records. When AI is built responsibly into unified platforms, it becomes a competitive advantage: you gain operational efficiency whilst demonstrating that customer data is protected, not exploited.
Unified platforms and operational resilience
The solution lies in rethinking digital infrastructure. Rather than accumulating disparate tools, businesses need unified platforms that integrate core functions whilst maintaining consistent security protocols.
A unified approach means choosing cloud-based platforms where functions share common security standards, and data flows seamlessly. For a manufacturing SME, this means inventory management, order processing and financial reporting operate within a single security framework.
When everything operates cohesively, security gaps diminish, and the attack surface shrinks. And the benefits extend beyond risk reduction: employees spend less time on administrative friction, customer data stays consistent, and platforms enable secure collaboration without traditional infrastructure costs.
Safer Internet Day reminds us that the digital world requires active stewardship. For SMEs across the African continent who are navigating complex threats whilst harnessing AI’s potential, digital trust is foundational to sustainable growth. Security, privacy and responsible AI are essential characteristics of any technology infrastructure worth building upon. Businesses that embrace unified, privacy-first platforms will be more resilient against cyber threats and better positioned to earn and maintain trust. In a market where trust is currency, that advantage is everything.
Kehinde Ogundare is the Country Head for Zoho Nigeria
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