Feature/OPED
Subsidy Removal: Beyond Tinubu, Kyari’s Personal Interests
By Mohammed Usman
One of the major highlights of the new administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been the suspension of the payment of subsidy for premium motor spirit, PMS, commonly called petrol.
Though there have been so many reforms introduced into the system since its inauguration on May 29, 2023, the removal of fuel subsidies seemed to have been the most daring move ever made by any administration.
Come to think of it, as critical as fuel subsidy removal is to the turnaround of the economy; successive governments have made brick walls in their attempts to end the subsidy regime.
And, ever since that May 29th, 2023 pronouncement, a lot of dust has been raised from different quarters, either from the uninformed or from the camp of those who benefited, albeit criminally or otherwise, while the subsidy regime held sway. And a lot of water has passed under the bridge, too, including threats of strike.
However, it is pertinent to dig deep into this matter. Was removing the oil subsidy the right step in the right direction, or was it another government’s way to punish the masses?
Some say it is a wicked act by the president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, aimed at impoverishing the masses further. Others say it is the handiwork of the group chief executive officer, GCEO, of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mallam Mele Kolo Kyari. In this regard, the two top government functionaries have been the objects of attacks and accusations both in beer parlour discussions and in the press.
However, to the informed, this remains the most courageous move to place the country on the strongest path to its economic recovery.
The concept of fuel subsidy is not new to our national discourse. In fact, the subsidy has been in place in Nigeria since the promulgation of the Price Control Act in 1977. It was put in place to cushion the effects of the global inflation of the 1970s.
In recent years, rather than being a blessing, subsidy payments have placed a huge economic burden on the government. The sectors that were affected negatively were the educational and health, and housing sectors.
In justifying the subsidy removal, the government said subsidy removal would free up public funds for more meaningful infrastructure and developmental programs that stimulate industrialisation and create jobs, economic growth and social prosperity.
For example: Almost N12 trillion spent on subsidy in the last four years is more than sufficient to develop any of the following projects: 2,400, hospitals of 1000 bed capacity across 774 local government areas; or 500,000 new houses to provide shelter to over 3.5 million Nigerians; or 27GW of electricity generation; or skill up and provide education up to tertiary levels for over 2 million Nigerians.
It also said it would create a market reflective downstream, which invariably stimulates more downstream investments, especially in the domestic refining space, thereby creating more jobs, prosperity, and growth.
The removal, according to the government, would eliminate the unhealthy price arbitrage with neighbouring countries, thereby preventing the diversion and smuggling of gasoline outside the nation’s borders, which bleeds our economy, as well as reduce corruption surrounding internal product diversion as many marketers procure gasoline at subsidised, regulated wholesale prices but still sell at deregulated retail prices.
It stated that the rich benefit more from the subsidy than the poor as they have a higher number and capacity of vehicles to buy more gasoline; removal of the subsidy creates an opportunity to redistribute this benefit directly to those who need it more.
Subsidy removal also enables responsible gasoline consumption, which reduces waste as the prices are more market reflective, and the demand for the product will rebalance itself with the new price realities.
It equally allows the full recovery of upstream revenues, which enables reinvestment required to grow our national petroleum production and reserves and overall forex earnings.
The removal also would strengthen the naira as the growth of our foreign exchange earnings combined with a reduction in product consumption reduces pressure on forex, thereby strengthening the naira.
It would also reduce product scarcity, opening market reflective prices to bring in more players, and create a more efficient market, thereby reducing fuel scarcity and its adverse effects on the economy.
The removal is also expected to reduce the growing and unsustainable budget deficit and, consequently, the debt burden, creating a more robust economic and sustainable future.
Successive governments had sunk trillions of naira into the subsidy payments. In 2006, the Obasanjo regime earmarked N1.9 trillion for these payments. Do not forget that during the period under review, the naira exchanged at N130 to a dollar, making the amount $14.6 billion. This amount was to spike in 2007 when the same government spent N2.3trn, or $17.96bn, with naira exchanging for N128 to a dollar.
The above amount either tripled or quadrupled under the Yaradua/Jonathan administration as well as the Buhari administration. Now that the dollar is hovering around N800 in the exchange rate, one wonders what would be the fate of the economy in the next six months had the subsidy stayed.
Probably, this would have been the basis of the constant warning from international agencies of the dangers of accommodating this burden called a subsidy. Prior to the removal of the subsidy, there were damning reports from the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and the World Bank concerning oil subsidy.
In its report titled, “Macro Poverty Outlook for Nigeria: April 2023” the World Bank said macroeconomic stability had weakened amidst declining oil production, costly fuel subsidies and other factors, further pushing millions of Nigeria into poverty, and that might become worse if the subsidy stayed up to June on 2023.
The report further said: “With Nigeria’s population growth continuing to outpace poverty reduction and persistent high inflation ratio, the number of Nigerians living below the national poverty line will rise by 13 million between 2019 and 2025 in the baseline projection.”
The bottom line is that in the last two decades, the fuel subsidy has cost the nation several trillions of naira. Even if it is narrowed down to between 2005 and now, the government spent approximately N21 trillion on subsidy payments alone.
The last regime of President Muhammadu Buhari, having realized the dangers ahead, stopped making provisions for the payment in June 2023 when his government would have expired. It was, therefore, incumbent on the incoming administration to pick up the gauntlet and do the needful.
From the onset of the existence of the subsidy, a certain set of individuals had smiled to the bank with each payment. It turned out that something that was done to assuage the suffering of the masses became an avenue for people with greedy and unscrupulous oil marketing companies to divert money into their pockets by sheer unconscionable criminality,
Speaking in a nationwide broadcast last Monday, President Tinubu reiterated on the benefit of the subsidy removal to Nigerians. He said in a little over two months, his government had over a trillion naira “that would have been squandered on the unproductive fuel subsidy, which only benefitted smugglers and fraudsters. That money will now be used more directly and more beneficial for you and your families.
“For several years, I have consistently maintained the position that the fuel subsidy had to go. This once beneficial measure outlived its usefulness.
“The subsidy cost us trillions of Naira yearly. Such a vast sum of money would have been better spent on public transportation, healthcare, schools, housing, and even national security. Instead, it was being funnelled into the deep pockets and lavish bank accounts of a select group of individuals.
“To be blunt, Nigeria could never become the society it was intended to be as long as such small, powerful, yet unelected groups hold enormous influence over our political economy and the institutions that govern it.
“The whims of the few should never hold dominant sway over the hopes and aspirations of the many. If we are to be a democracy, the people and not the power of money must be sovereign.”
However, notwithstanding the president’s speech, the organized labour ordered workers to resume strike on Wednesday after talks with the government failed to yield positive results.
This is in spite of palliatives proposed by the federal government to ameliorate the perceived suffering the fuel subsidy removal would throw up.
This raises the question as to what Nigerian labour is up to. Is labour truly yearning for the progress of Nigeria, or is it being sponsored by enemies of Nigeria?
At this critical period of our nation, we urge Nigerians to come together to support the good vision of the president to make the nation great because, from all indications, both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Mallam Mele Kyari, the NNPC GCEO mean well for Nigeria.
Usman, a public commentator, wrote in from FCT, Abuja.
By Tony Ogunlowo
‘Titanic’ can mean something that is very big, gigantic or enormous and it was also the name of a ship that sank on its maiden voyage.
When the Titanic sank in 1912 it sank due to a number of avoidable factors: a ship deemed unsinkable that wasn’t fitted with watertight compartments, a ‘unprofessional’ seasoned captain who was apparently bullied into going at full speed through known ice-berg strewn waters, lack of common binoculars for the deck watch and the unavailability of enough life boats for all the passengers.
This all put together, as they say, was a recipe for disaster. Red flags were ignored.
Translating this to President Tinubu’s modern-day Nigeria, the avoidable factors that can sink the country are way too obvious.
Nigerians have long enjoyed the benefits of fuel subsidy. Costly as it is to maintain it’s enabled the economy to keep running by keeping the cost of things low. It’s removal, as can be seen, has created a domino effect, as the experts predicted, resulting in the prices of even the basic commodities skyrocketing as everyone passes on the additional costs.
With inflation currently at 32.7% and still rising, things are only going to keep on getting more and more expensive. As a result, the new minimum wage of N70,000 will have less purchasing power than the previous 2021 minimum wage of N30,000. If fuel subsidy removal was meant to boost the economy it has done the opposite and will stagnate any efforts to kickstart it.
The governments inability to control corruption or severely punish corrupt officials which is robbing the country’s coffers of billions and billions of Naira every year is a stumbling block for development.
If a corrupt government official who built 750 houses with stolen funds or an ex-governor accused of misappropriating N80 billion are allowed to walk around freely, supposedly on bail, without fear of eventual conviction it questions the message the government is sending out to future looters: if the culprits were in Russia or China the outcome will be totally different.
Even though an austerity economic policy may seem harsh like it was designed to rob Peter to pay Paul, it should be short, sharp hardship with green pastures in the foreseeable future – not ever! A good start will be to cut down on the number of foreign loans being obtained every year as their repayment can take a huge chunk out of the country’s annual income.
The new tax laws are long overdue and it should include that VAT earned in a state stays in that state: so, if your state doesn’t generate any VAT (- such as from the sale of alcohol products) you don’t get to share in what other states have collected.
Insecurity in the country is not something that started yesterday. Previous governments have blood on their hands for not nipping these insurrections in the bud before they grew to become monstrosities. You don’t pat yourself on the back, like the Nigerian Army likes to do believing you have the threat ‘under control’ – you eliminate the threat completely using what ever means necessary.
Unless the order (given by ‘Somebody’) is not to destroy them completely and to quote the late Sani Abacha,”…any insurgency that lasts more than 24 hours, a government official has a hand in it..”, no wonder Boko Haram continues to flourish and bandits like Turji Bello continue to taut the government. When the armed robber Lawrence Anini did something similar in 1986 he was fished out within months, tried and executed.
As I’ve written before the Nigerian Police Force is long past its sell by date and considering the ever growing population of Nigeria with its associated acts of anti-social behaviour its time to seriously consider devolving the NPF into state-run outfits. The growing popularity of state-run security outfits, such as Amotekun, proves this is feasible and effective.
Considering the fact the country is going through severe economic hardship the President, himself, should curb frivolous spending where possible: no more new Presidential yachts or planes ( – that includes the new one for the VP), a cap on ridiculous-no-real-job SA and SSA appointments and most important of all a cap on ALL politicians salaries and perks (which is to say if politicians are patriotic enough they’ll agree to a pay cut, forgo some of their benefits and pay for their own jaunts abroad).
Implementing the Steve Oronsaye Report which recommends merging and closing of ministries etc that has been passed over by every President since President Goodluck commissioned it in 2011 will cut government operating costs even further. This should not just be at Presidential level but extended to all the states: this will not just streamline the bloated and largely inefficient civil service but will also weed out ghost workers and white elephant project.
The ‘japa’ movement which the government is trying to discourage should be allowed to continue. It’s morally wrong for a government that can’t provide suitable employment for its citizens to try and prevent them from seeking opportunities abroad : ‘japa’ is not just limited to Nigerians, it’s a worldwide phenomenon.
People, British, American, Filipinos, are migrating worldwide to where ever there are opportunities for them to prosper. That’s the way the world works now: nobody is going to stay in a ‘sh*t-hole’ country if there are no opportunities for them to grow. Scr3w patriotism! It’s every man for himself! So, if a country can’t provide adequate employment opportunities people will pack their bags and ‘japa’! And if you restrict them from leaving the country what are they going to do? Get up to mischief – 419, cultism, kidnapping!
These same people send money back to their home countries all the time: Nigerians in diaspora in 2023 alone sent home more than $19.5 Billion Dollars. This is a huge injection of foreign currency for a country that desperately needs it.
So, just like the Titanic the warning signs are there and the inevitable that will happen should they be ignored. The question is which way is President Tinubu going to go. This is what I call the ‘Titanic Wahala’, ignore the obvious and the proverbial will hit the fan, sooner or later.
Feature/OPED
From Rental Shifts to AI Innovations: The Evolving Landscape of South Africa’s Property Sector
By Waldo Marcus
The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.
Rental property gross yields will, on average, stay the same as property values are expected to increase in line with rental income. The challenge for investors will be to keep operating costs down to maintain or improve net yields.
A favourable outlook for residential housing market
The outlook for the residential housing market is more favourable for 2025 than it has been for the past few years with the property market offering good value overall. The interest rate will likely be cut by a further 50bps by the third quarter of 2025, offering further relief for household finances and renewed activity at both the lower and upper ends of the market. More investments could see an increase in rental property supply and even a potential decline in rental demand as more consumers shift from renting to buying. We expect continued demand for well-managed rental properties.
Waldo Marcus is a Director at TPN from MRI Software
Ever wondered where to find trendy fashion, cutting-edge tech, or stylish home decor at unbeatable prices? Look no further than Temu.
What is Temu?
Temu, an online marketplace sensation, has taken the world by storm with its vast array of products, competitive prices, and user-friendly platform.
Since its 2022 launch, it has quickly become a global sensation, boasting hundreds of millions of downloads and catering to over 80 markets. Now, Nigerian shoppers can experience the Temu magic firsthand.
This guide will walk you through the Temu shopping experience, ensuring a smooth journey from product discovery to delivery.
Step 1: CREATE AN ACCOUNT TO UNLOCK SMART SHOPPING
The registration process
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Mobile app vs. desktop: Which platform offers the best shopping experience?
Both the mobile app and desktop website offer a seamless shopping experience. However, for a truly dynamic and interactive shopping journey, we recommend the mobile app. You will enjoy real-time price alerts, exclusive mobile deals, and easy order tracking.
For a more deliberate shopping experience, the desktop website is the perfect choice. With larger screens and easy-to-use comparison features, you can take your time and make informed decisions.
Step 2: BROWSING AND SHOPPING LIKE A PRO
Navigating Temu’s vast selection
Temu offers a vast selection of over 200 product categories, from fashion and tech to home goods and beauty.
To get started, simply use the search bar function to find specific items or explore categories, and refine your search with filters for price, colour, size, and more. Sort items by relevance, price, or newest arrivals to find the perfect products.
Temu’s ranking system highlights popular and trusted products, often based on customer reviews and sales trends. To make informed choices, compare prices, features, and reviews before purchasing.
Best-selling products
Temu’s best-selling products are constantly updated based on real-time sales data.
Other metrics beyond rankings
Temu goes beyond traditional product rankings, focusing on the performance and quality of its providers. By considering factors like historic ratings, repurchase records, follower numbers, and new product releases, consumers can make informed decisions. This approach not only empowers buyers but also incentivises providers to deliver high-quality, diverse products and build strong customer relationships.
Providers can earn recognition directly on their product pages by ranking highly in categories like Top Sales, Top Rated, Top Repurchased, Top Followed, or New Arrival. These rankings are based on the provider’s performance over the past 30 days and are updated daily to ensure the most current information is displayed to consumers.
Finding your perfect fit
Temu provides detailed size guides to help shoppers find the perfect fit, particularly for clothing and accessories. These guides often include measurements, comparison charts, and sometimes even virtual fitting tools to make your online shopping experience seamless.
Save more, shop smart
Simplify your shopping and maximise your savings with Temu. All discounts are displayed directly on product pages. For the best deals, explore the platform’s Lightning Deals. To ensure satisfaction, pay attention to details, read descriptions, verify measurements, understand features, and consult seller ratings and reviews.
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Shopping safely and securely
Temu offers a variety of payment methods, including popular credit cards and digital wallets like Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Maestro, Discover, JCB and Diners Club. To prioritise your security, the platform employs advanced security measures, adhering to strict industry standards to protect your information.
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Hassle-free delivery, every time
Temu prioritises customer satisfaction by providing real-time order tracking and reliable shipping options, including free standard shipping and express delivery. The platform guarantees on-time delivery and offers full refunds for damaged or undelivered orders.
At the moment, Temu is in partnership with local logistics firms, such as Flyt Express, SKYNET, and Speedaf to make delivery to Nigerian shoppers on time.
Step 5: AFTER-SALES SERVICE – BEYOND THE PURCHASE
Returns and exchanges made easy
Temu provides a seamless return process with its Purchase Protection Program. If you’re unsatisfied with a purchase, log into your account, select the item, provide a reason, and submit a return request. Temu will provide a prepaid shipping label.
You have a 90-day return window for most items. Once processed, you can choose a refund to Temu credit or original payment. For exchanges, return the item and place a new order. Temu also offers refund policies for no updates and no deliveries. Check Temu’s specific return policy for the latest information.
Beyond shopping: A greener future
Temu is committed to sustainability. By shopping on Temu, you contribute to a greener future. The platform’s Tree Planting Program and combined shipping initiatives help reduce environmental impact.
Smart shopping simplified
Temu has transformed online shopping, offering a wide range of affordable products and a user-friendly experience.
Follow these simple steps to easily navigate the platform and discover your next favourite find. If you need assistance, Temu’s customer support team is available 24/7.
So, shop with confidence on Temu!
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