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Agusto Seeks Improvement in Nigeria’s Electric Power Production

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electric power production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Research and credit ratings firm, Agusto & Co. has identified strategies for more improvement in the country’s electric power production.

In a research note shared with Business Post, the agency noted that Nigeria’s electric power consumption per capita of 145KwH falls behind those of select peers, South Africa (4,198) and Ghana (351KwH), as well as the average for lower middle-income countries of 811KwH.

“Following the unbundling and subsequent privatization of the long-standing government-owned monopoly in the power sector, as part of the power sector reform of 2004, honest and objective evaluations of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry’s (‘NESI’) performance in the post-power privatization era have ranged from ‘minimal improvement’ to ‘more of the same’. The entire NESI value chain is fraught with structural impediments, which have continued to impede optimal performance, with operators consistently ‘passing the buck’,” Agusto noted.

Nigeria, according to the World Bank, has the largest energy access deficit in 2021, with 43 per cent (or 85 million Nigerians) of the country’s population without access to grid-connected electricity.

“As of 31 December 2022, the generating segment of the market comprised 29 operational generating plants with a combined installed capacity of 13,014MW and an average operational capacity of 4,523MW – down 29 per cent from 6,371.9MW in 2019.

“There were 12 Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Nigeria in 2022, accounting for 31.2 per cent  of the country’s total power generating capacity, a 300 basis points decline from 2021 – due largely to gas constraints and faulty machinery.”

Agusto & Co. pointed out that on average, and due largely to gas constraints, only five IPPs: Azura-Edo (26 per cent), Odukpani (19 per cent), Okpai (16 per cent), Afam VI (15 per cent), and Rivers IPP (8 per cent) jointly accounted for circa 84 per cent of the power generated from the 12 IPPs in the last four years.

Agusto also explained that lingering gas shortages are proving to be difficult for Africa’s largest economy.

“Gas constraints remain prevalent despite the fact that Nigeria has the world’s ninth-largest proven gas reserves, estimated at 204 trillion cubic feet in 2022. The domestic gas market in Nigeria has been plagued by chronic underinvestment in generating and distribution infrastructure.

“At the same time, under the domestic supply obligation framework within the Gas Master Plan (GMP), all gas companies are required to supply an assigned quota of gas to critical sectors (including electric power) at prices ($2.18mscf) lower than what is obtainable in international markets (average of $7.52mscf in the US market in 2022).”

As a result, “operators of thermal plants struggle to secure viable gas contracts at the approved price.  As at the end of 2022, 25 of the country’s 29 GenCos were gas-powered, underscoring the urgency of finding a long-term solution to gas supply constraints,” the note explained.

The firm noted that the weakest link in the NESI value chain is the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which is still entirely government-owned.

“The national grid has a wheeling capacity of circa 8,100MW, which pales in comparison to the nation’s peak electricity demand of 19,798 MW. This implication is that even with an increase in the generating capacity of the grid-connected IPPs, the TCN is unable to evacuate more than 8,100MW.”

Agusto & Co. noted that the TCN is a critical bottleneck in the supply of electricity and has stalled investment in power generation.

“On the other hand, the TCN continues to blame load rejection by distribution companies, particularly during the rainy season, for the high frequency of grid collapses.”

Agusto & Co. anticipates that the current Nigerian Electricity Grid Maintenance Expansion and Rehabilitation Program (NEGMERP), which aims to expand the country’s grid network through the diligent execution of network expansion projects funded by both the Federal Government and donors, will result in some growth in NESI in the short term.

This is in addition to the Presidential Power Initiative signed with Siemens AG, which is expected to result in an additional 25,000MW of operational capacity from the national grid.

“The completion of such projects will assure prospective power generation companies that the TCN has ample capacity to receive generated electricity. With a more efficient TCN, Nigeria can achieve self-sufficiency in power supply, making electricity exports easier through the West African Power Pool’s (WAPP) future Regional Electricity Market (REM).”

Agusto lauded President Muhammadu Buhari’s signing of the Fifth Alteration Bill No. 33, 2022 (the “Electricity Constitutional Amendment”), which allows Nigeria’s 36 States to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid.

“This has significant implications for the country’s struggling power sector, as it could lead to increased investment in power generation and distribution infrastructure, as well as increased competition among power providers.

“By devolving power to the States, Agusto & Co. believes the bill could also lead to more efficient and effective management of the power sector, as states will have greater control over their power supply. This could lead to more targeted investment in power infrastructure and more responsive management of power supply and demand.”

This is without some limitation as, “the bill also raises concerns about the potential for fragmentation of the power sector, as different states may have different priorities and approaches to power generation and distribution, leading some, to possibly bypass the national grid entirely.

“Furthermore, States deemed to lack a sufficient economic base may be unable to attract investors in their electricity generation, transmission, or distribution, causing them to fall behind other States in terms of electricity supply. This could constrain the business environments in these States, thereby eroding investor confidence, discouraging investment, and limiting economic growth and development.”

Giving its outlook, the firm noted that the NESI is currently in the second stage – the transitional electricity market (TEM) – on its evolutionary path, where the state-owned special purpose vehicle (the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc – ‘NBET’) buys electricity in bulk from the generating companies and independent power producers (IPPs) and resells to the distribution companies (DisCos) under vesting contracts.

As it transitions to the medium-term market, Agusto & Co. expects more IPPs to become operational, which will significantly raise the Industry’s generation capacity over the medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Rivers Speaker, 15 Other Lawmakers Leave PDP for APC

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rivers speaker Martin Amaewhule defect

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Mr Martin Amaewhule, has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

At the plenary on Friday, Mr Amaewhule joined the ruling party from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), along with 15 other members of the state parliament.

This development comes some months after they had earlier declared their support for the APC in the wake of a crisis with the state governor, Mr Sim Fubura.

The lawmakers had an issue with Mr Fubura, which led to a state of emergency declared on the oil-rich state by President Bola Tinubu in March 2025.

This embargo was only lift in September 2025 after the duration of the six-month emergency rule in the state.

A few days ago, members of the Rivers Assembly passed a vote of confidence on President Tinubu, backing him to remain in office till 2031, when he would have spent eight years in office if re-elected in 2027.

Announcing their defection today, the lawmakers pinned their decision on the crisis rocking the PDP at the national level.

It is not certain if their political godfather, Mr Nyesom Wike, who is the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), will join them in APC.

Mr Wike, who governed Rivers State from 2015 to 2023, has been accused of instigating the crisis in the opposition PDP. He was expelled from the party last month at a national convention held in Ibadan, Oyo State.

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Nigeria Risks Brain Drain in Energy Sector—PENGASSAN

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned that Nigeria risks massive brain drain in the oil and gas sector due to poor remuneration.

The president of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, said at the end of the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the union on Thursday in Abuja that the industry was facing challenges arising from Naira devaluation and inflation, noting that, oil and gas skills remained globally competitive.

Painting an example, he said, “A drilling engineer in Nigeria does the same job as one in the US or Abu Dhabi,” noting that the union must take steps to bridge the wage gap to prevent members from leaving the country for better opportunities abroad.

“If we don’t act, the brain drain seen in other sectors will be child’s play,” he said.

According to him, PENGASSAN has recorded significant gains through collective bargaining across oil and gas branches.

“We signed numerous agreements across government agencies, IOCs, service and marketing sectors,” he said.

He said the agreements brought relief to members facing rising costs of living, adding that, the association’s duty is to protect members’ jobs and enhance their pay.

Mr Osifo urged companies delaying salary reviews and those foot-dragging as a result of the prevailing economic realities, to do the needful.

He said the industry employed some of the nation’s best talents, making competitive pay critical to retaining skilled workers.

“This industry recruits the best. Companies must provide the best conditions,” he said.

On insecurity, Mr Osifo urged government to take decisive action against terrorism and kidnappings across the country.

“We are tired of condemnations. government must expose sponsors and protect citizens,” he said.

He urged government at all levels to prioritise tackling insecurity through better funding and equipment for security agencies.

Mr Osifo said PENGASSAN supported calls for state police to improve local security response, adding that decentralising policing will protect citizens better than rhetoric.

He also said economic indicators meant little, if food prices remained high and farmers could not return to farms due to insecurity.

“Nigerians want to see food on the table, not macroeconomic figures,” he said, urging the government to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic gains reach households.

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Bill Seeking Creation of Unified Emergency Number Passes Second Reading

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Unified Emergency Number

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s crisis-response bill seeking to establish a single, toll-free, three-digit emergency number for nationwide use passed for second reading in the Senate this week.

Sponsored by Mr Abdulaziz Musa Yar’adua, the proposed legislation aims to replace the country’s chaotic patchwork of emergency lines with a unified code—112—that citizens can dial for police, fire, medical, rescue and other life-threatening situations.

Lawmakers said the reform is urgently needed to address delays, miscommunication and avoidable deaths linked to Nigeria’s fragmented response system amid rising insecurity.

Leading debate, Mr Yar’adua said Nigeria has outgrown the “operational disorder” caused by multiple emergency numbers in Lagos, Abuja, Ogun and other states for ambulance services, police intervention, fire incidents, domestic violence, child abuse and other crises.

He said, “This bill seeks to provide for a nationwide toll-free emergency number that will aid the implementation of a national system of reporting emergencies.

“The presence of multiple emergency numbers in Nigeria has been identified as an impediment to getting accelerated emergency response.”

Mr Yar’adua noted that the reform would bring Nigeria in line with global best practices, citing the United States, United Kingdom and India, countries where a single emergency line has improved coordination, enhanced location tracking and strengthened first responders’ efficiency.

With an estimated 90 per cent of Nigerians owning mobile phones, he said the unified number would significantly widen public access to emergency services.

Under the bill, all calls and text messages would be routed to the nearest public safety answering point or control room.

He urged the Senate to fast-track the bill’s passage, stressing the need for close collaboration with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), relevant agencies and telecom operators to ensure nationwide coverage.

Senator Ali Ndume described the reform as “timely and very, very important,” warning that the absence of a reliable reporting channel has worsened Nigeria’s security vulnerabilities.

“One of the challenges we are having during this heightened insecurity is lack of proper or effective communication with the affected agencies,” Ndume said.

“If we do this, we are enhancing and contributing to solving the security challenges and other related criminalities we are facing,” he added.

Also speaking in support, Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno said a centralised emergency number would remove barriers to citizen reporting and strengthen public involvement in security management.

He said, “Our security community is always calling on the general public to report what they see.

“There is a need for government to create an avenue where the public can report what they see without any hindrance. The bill would give strength and muscular expression to national calls for vigilance.”

The bill was referred to the Senate Committee on Communications for further legislative work and is expected to be returned for final consideration within four weeks.

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