General
Increased Production to Drop Nigeria’s Petrol Deficit by 39%—Kpler
By Adedapo Adesanya
Increase in production volume at refineries in Nigeria will reduce petrol deficit in the country by 39 per cent to 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 from 280,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler.
Kpler, a market insights firm focused on the energy and shipping markets, said in a report that increasing output at the Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen not just Nigeria but West Africa’s petroleum (gasoline) balances.
“Increasing refinery runs at Nigeria’s Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries throughout 2025 are expected to significantly lengthen West Africa’s gasoline balances,” the firm said.
It confirmed that the shift will pose challenges for European refiners, with European gasoline exports to Nigeria already dropping to a four-year low of 70,000 barrels per day in December.
Recall that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently said that the increased production of petroleum products by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced the importation of refined products from Europe.
The 650,000 barrels per day Dangote oil refinery built by Nigerian billionaire, Mr Aliko Dangote, in Lagos, had affirmed to compete with European refiners when operating at full capacity.
Although, when it started operations last year, it struggled to secure sufficient crude locally — as production remains below target and tied to contracts with other players by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Kpler said that following the commissioning of key units within the gasoline block-Reformer, isomerization, RFCC, and Alkylation-this output is reflected in the sharp reduction in residue and naphtha production.
“We estimate that Dangote’s RFCC (the most critical unit for high- volume gasoline production) is currently operating at 40-45% capacity, placing total Nigerian gasoline production at above 100 kbd,” Kpler added.
It wrote that, “Dangote’s fuel oil exports, for instance, fell from 60 kbd in 23 to just 6 kbd in Q4, while naphtha exports also dropped significantly q/q,” adding that, “Achieving higher yields and production volumes will depend on further romping up RFCC unit rates, a milestone antiopated by late 2025.”
Kpler pointed out increased production volumes at Dangote will reduce “Nigeria’s gasoline deficit from -280 kbd in 2024 to -170 kbd in 2025 (and-100 kbd in 2026).”
It explained that while Dangote’s petrol will primarily cater to domestic markets, the refinery is also poised to become a major suppler across Western, Central, and Southern Africa.
It added that Dangote Refinery shipped about 60,000 barrels per day in the last quarter of 2024 to Congo, Ghana, Angola, Cameroon, and others.
General
AI in Agriculture, Retail Sectors May Lead to Double Digit Growth by 2035
By Adedapo Adesanya
High-impact sectors, including agriculture, wholesale and retail, will see double digit increases with the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across Africa by 2035.
This is according to a new report by the African Development Bank (AfDB) developed under the G20 Digital Transformation Working Group, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation, which establishes a strategic roadmap for unlocking the economic and social potential of AI across the continent.
The study, carried out by consulting firm Bazara Tech, finds that inclusive AI deployment could generate up to $1 trillion in additional GDP by 2035 equivalent to nearly one-third of the continent’s current economic output.
The report added that this is underpinned by Africa’s growing digital capacity, favorable demographics, and ongoing sectoral reforms, making it one of the most promising regions for AI-driven growth globally.
According to the report the AI dividend is expected to be concentrated in select high-impact sectors, rather than spread evenly across Africa’s economy. Analysis identified five priority sectors—agriculture (20 per cent), wholesale and retail (14 per cent), manufacturing and Industry 4.0 (9 per cent), finance and inclusion (8 per cent), and health and life sciences (7 per cent)—which together are projected to capture 58 per cent of the total AI gains, or approximately $580 billion by 2035. These sectors combine economic size, readiness to adopt AI, and strong potential to deliver inclusive development outcomes.
“We have set out the key actions in this report, identifying the areas where initial implementation should be focused,” said Mr Nicholas Williams, Manager of the ICT Operations Division at AfDB.
“The bank is ready to release investment to support these actions. We expect the private sector and the government to utilize this investment to ensure we achieve the identified productivity gains and create quality jobs,” he added.
The report also revealed that realising the potential of AI depends on five interlinked enablers: data, compute, skills, trust, and capital. Reliable and interoperable data forms the foundation for AI insights, while scalable compute infrastructure ensures solutions can be deployed efficiently across the continent.
It noted that a skilled workforce is essential to develop, implement, and maintain AI systems, and trust built through governance, and regulatory frameworks underpins adoption.
The report also noted that the enablers, together with adequate capital investment to de-risk innovation and accelerate deployment, would “foster a cycle of AI-driven growth.”
The report also outlines a three-phase roadmap toward Africa’s AI readiness: ignition (2025-27), consolidation (2028-31) and scale (2032-35).
“Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion,” said Mr Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development at the bank. “Africa’s challenge is no longer what to do — it is doing it on time.”
General
Crude Oil Tanker Seized Near Venezuela Not Registered in Nigeria—NIMASA
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has clarified that the crude oil vessel, MV Skipper, intercepted by the United States Coast Guard, in collaboration with the US Navy for its alleged involvement in crude oil theft and other transnational crimes is not registered in Nigeria.
NIMASA said the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) SKIPPER with IMO Number 9304667 is not a Nigerian-flagged vessel, and its purported owners, Thomarose Global Ventures Limited, are not registered with NIMASA as a shipping company.
An analysis of the vessel’s movement carried out NIMASA through its Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence (C4i) Centre showed that the facility was last sighted on Nigerian waters on July 1, 2024.
“After departing Nigerian waters, the vessel continued on its international voyage pattern and was tracked operating in the Arabian Sea (Asia) and later in the Caribbean region, where the US interdiction eventually took place.
“Records indicate that SKIPPER, which was formerly owned by Triton Navigation Corp, has undergone multiple name changes over time.
The Director General of NIMASA, Mr Dayo Mobereola, reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to collaborate with all relevant stakeholders, including US authorities, in the ongoing investigations, noting that in a statement that criminality will not be tolerated on Nigerian waters.
Last week, US forces seized an oil tanker carrying a Panama flag believed to be the VLCC Skipper, after satellite imagery showed the vessel secretly loading over 1.8 million barrels of sanctioned Merey crude at Venezuela’s José Terminal.
The vessel had been transmitting falsified AIS positions during the operation, a tactic increasingly used by “dark fleet” tankers tied to Venezuelan and Iranian trades. It was later revealed that the seized tanker Skipper, was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba’s state-run oil trading firm.
The seizure of the sanctioned oil tanker has sharply escalated tensions between the US and Venezuela. The US government also said it is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil.
General
SERAP Threatens to Sue AGF Fagbemi Over Failure to Enforce NDDC Judgment
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has urged the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi, “to immediately enforce the judgment compelling and directing him and president Bola Tinubu to widely publish the names of those indicted in the alleged misappropriation of N6 trillion meant to implement the abandoned 13,777 projects and in the running of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) between 2000 and 2019.”
The judgment was delivered on Monday, November 10, 2025, by Justice Gladys Olotu following a Freedom of Information suit number: FHC/ABJ/CS/1360/2021 brought by SERAP.
The court also ordered Mr Fagbemi and the president “to publish and make available to the public the NDDC forensic audit report submitted to the federal government on September 2, 2021.”
In the letter dated December 13, 2025 and signed by SERAP deputy director, Mr Kolawole Oluwadare, the organisation said: “The continuing failure and/or refusal to publicly acknowledge the judgment and immediately enforce it makes a mockery of the country’s legal and judicial processes and the rule of law.”
It warned that the ongoing failure and/or refusal to enforce the judgment is a fundamental breach of both the letter and spirit of the Nigerian Constitution and a direct assault on the rule of law.
“Obeying the judgment would reinforce the primacy of the Nigerian Constitution, and the country’s international obligations and show respect for the rule of law.
“The Attorney General is the Chief Law Officer of the Federation and as such has the responsibility to uphold the Nigerian Constitution, advise the government to ensure that its actions conform with judicial decisions, obey the rule of law and generally act in the public interest,” it disclosed.
The group noted that, “We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within 7 days of the receipt and/or publication of this letter. If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall consider pursuing contempt proceedings against you to compel you to uphold the Nigerian Constitution and the rule of law.”
“SERAP notes the recent public commitments by President Tinubu to ‘improve the welfare of the Niger Delta region and address the challenges facing the region.’ Immediately enforcing the NDDC judgment would ensure the fulfilment of these commitments,” it concluded.
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